Border Poll discussion

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think that it is scaremongering to suggest that the road to a United Ireland will be anything but easy. There are questions about the Unionist community, an increased tax burden, pensions for NI’s public sector to be answered. Then there’s how it happens if a border poll returns a result in favour of unification. Does it happen gradually or does Dublin assume control in a month or two?

If Brexit has shown us anything, it’s that rushing headfirst into the unknown based on nationalistic fantasy and emotion is an appalling idea.

I think that if there was a border poll, it would include a plan - an implementation plan.

There would be an implementation date - say 12 months after the vote.

On that date, the Irish Gov would become the sovereign state responsible for the whole island. The Irish Supreme Court would take over judicial functions from the UK Supreme Court. All courts in NI would then pass control to the Irish Courts Service. The Irish Constitution would apply to the whole island.

On the same date, the Irish Central Bank would take over the supervision functions currently dealt with by the Bank of England. At a future date, the North would change to the Euro, with all bank balances changing. [This would be optional, but it would be at a fixed rate that would only apply for those balances].

The PNSI would report to the Irish Dept of Justice just as the Guards do now. There would be a transition period while the two forces would work towards amalgamation or a modus vivandi so that they work seamlessly together. The offices of the CPS and DPP would work together towards amalgamation.

The VAT system would also merge, with the rate moving towards each other. The same would happen with excise duty. The Revenue Commissioners would take over the equivalent body in the north. Any likely redundancies would be avoided by passing work from the republic to the northern civil servants to benefit from greater efficiencies from unification.

The legal systems would co-exist for a period, but would be moved closer together by legislation designed to take the best route to a single system.

The rest would need to be negotiated.

1: How much will the UK continue to pay, and for how long. Things like pensions would be part of this.

2. How much will the EU and the USA be prepared to help out.

3. How much can the Irish Gov do to prime the economic pump in NI to get the economy into Tiger mode.

4. Tax rates and welfare rates would need to work towards each other.

5. The health services would also need to work towards each other. Let us hope we get the NHS rather than they get the HSE.

These would need to be at least open to an understanding by the general public in both jurisdictions in order to get the UI referendum passed.

Obviously, the above is just my speculation. Who pays for what is also pure speculation and would be up to the two Governments to agree before going for the UI referendum.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that if there was a border poll, it would include a plan - an implementation plan.

There would be an implementation date - say 12 months after the vote.

On that date, the Irish Gov would become the sovereign state responsible for the whole island. The Irish Supreme Court would take over judicial functions from the UK Supreme Court. All courts in NI would then pass control to the Irish Courts Service. The Irish Constitution would apply to the whole island.

On the same date, the Irish Central Bank would take over the supervision functions currently dealt with by the Bank of England. At a future date, the North would change to the Euro, with all bank balances changing. [This would be optional, but it would be at a fixed rate that would only apply for those balances].

The PNSI would report to the Irish Dept of Justice just as the Guards do now. There would be a transition period while the two forces would work towards amalgamation or a modus vivandi so that they work seamlessly together. The offices of the CPS and DPP would work together towards amalgamation.

The VAT system would also merge, with the rate moving towards each other. The same would happen with excise duty. The Revenue Commissioners would take over the equivalent body in the north. Any likely redundancies would be avoided by passing work from the republic to the northern civil servants to benefit from greater efficiencies from unification.

The legal systems would co-exist for a period, but would be moved closer together by legislation designed to take the best route to a single system.

The rest would need to be negotiated.

1: How much will the UK continue to pay, and for how long. Things like pensions would be part of this.

2. How much will the EU and the USA be prepared to help out.

3. How much can the Irish Gov do to prime the economic pump in NI to get the economy into Tiger mode.

4. Tax rates and welfare rates would need to work towards each other.

5. The health services would also need to work towards each other. Let us hope we get the NHS rather than they get the HSE.

These would need to be at least open to an understanding by the general public in both jurisdictions in order to get the UI referendum passed.

Obviously, the above is just my speculation. Who pays for what is also pure speculation and would be up to the two Governments to agree before going for the UI referendum.

When global corporations gorge on the NHS as they seem to be lining up to do post Brexit, the HSE might look attractive.
Satisfaction with the NHS has fallen to low of 53%, lowest it has been since 2007. So all not rosy there, already.
What a UI might lead to is a huge opportunity to fix what we got wrong with the health service and the public service.
Root and branch reform time - who wouldn't support that?

James Brown

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think that it is scaremongering to suggest that the road to a United Ireland will be anything but easy. There are questions about the Unionist community, an increased tax burden, pensions for NI’s public sector to be answered. Then there’s how it happens if a border poll returns a result in favour of unification. Does it happen gradually or does Dublin assume control in a month or two?

If Brexit has shown us anything, it’s that rushing headfirst into the unknown based on nationalistic fantasy and emotion is an appalling idea.

It's not, you're right.
What would you call claiming we can't afford it in advance of any hard figures and talk of pensions like it's a foregone conclusion we'd be paying them or saying it'll never happen?
Being cautious is a different story. Most of us are trying to discuss what you mention here.

Point out where anyone is rushing headfirst or fantasy. There's accusations of it sure.

ancapailldorcha

Matt Barrett wrote: »

It's not, you're right.
What would you call claiming we can't afford it in advance of any hard figures and talk of pensions like it's a foregone conclusion we'd be paying them or saying it'll never happen?
Being cautious is a different story. Most of us are trying to discuss what you mention here.

Point out where anyone is rushing headfirst or fantasy. There's accusations of it sure.

I'm basing it on the status quo. Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of being in the United Kingdom. This would need to be replicated upon reunification.

James Brown

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm basing it on the status quo. Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of being in the United Kingdom. This would need to be replicated upon reunification.

Agreed. I don't see anyone suggesting it will be child's play to organise. There will need be a long set of negotiations and likely changes to the constitution among other things.

FrancieBrady

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm basing it on the status quo. Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of being in the United Kingdom. This would need to be replicated upon reunification.

Why would it need to be replicated? I am sure the majority that vote for a UI will be willing to make changes and take some pain if it is necessary.
Remember they will be voting for something that they believe will be better.

ancapailldorcha

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Agreed. I don't see anyone suggesting it will be child's play to organise. There will need be a long set of negotiations and likely changes to the constitution among other things.

RobMc59 mentioned the possibility of a year of intense negotiations to which you responded with the term "scaremongering".

Havockk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm basing it on the status quo. Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of being in the United Kingdom. This would need to be replicated upon reunification.

We don't need that replicated at all. What we need is major support, infrastructure and opportunities. We will never get that as long as we are partitioned. Brexit will exacerbate the already profound knowledge that we are the poor cousins on the island and that's what has to change.

This is the fundamental change post-brexit, this question will not go away now. Pandora is out of her box.

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

We don't need that replicated at all. What we need is major support, infrastructure and opportunities. We will never get that as long as we are partitioned. Brexit will exacerbate the already profound knowledge that we are the poor cousins on the island and that's what has to change.

This is the fundamental change post-brexit, this question will not go away now. Pandora is out of her box.

Where does the money for this come from?

Havockk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Where does the money for this come from?

That will have to be negotiated. But I imagine from Ireland, the UK and the EU.

The plan has to be to bring us into line with the rest of the country by which time a subvention would no longer be necessary. It's near time we stopped being a basketcase.

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

That will have to be negotiated. But I imagine from Ireland, the UK and the EU.

The plan has to be to bring us into line with the rest of the country by which time a subvention would no longer be necessary. It's near time we stopped being a basketcase.

Is the Republic a basketcase?

I don't see this offsetting NIs subsidy from London any time soon even if it happens.

Havockk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is the Republic a basketcase?

I don't see this offsetting NIs subsidy from London any time soon even if it happens.

I'm talking about the North. I'm a Northerner.

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

I'm talking about the North. I'm a Northerner.

Ahhh... That makes sense.

I imagine that if unification occurs then many EU countries would be sympathetic enough that they'd be amenable to an NI fund of some sort. I'd be waiting to see noises they make in the run up to a referendum.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would it need to be replicated? I am sure the majority that vote for a UI will be willing to make changes and take some pain if it is necessary.
Remember they will be voting for something that they believe will be better.

As things stand,is there much incentive to want a UI?-Not everyone sees things the same as you and wouldn't be interested in taking any pain.
Personally I would live in NI as it is like a shot but the wife (Irish)wouldn't entertain it,especially after recent events in Derry.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

As things stand,is there much incentive to want a UI?

1) No Assembly 2) Brexit that will more than likely create a hard border.

Not everyone sees things the same as you and wouldn't be interested in taking any pain.

You are going to get a lot of pain regardless.

Personally I would live in NI as it is like a shot but the wife (Irish)wouldn't entertain it,especially after recent events in Derry.

You will need to explain this to me. Your Irish wife wants to leave NI because dissident republicans planted a bomb?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

As things stand,is there much incentive to want a UI?-Not everyone sees things the same as you and wouldn't be interested in taking any pain.
Personally I would live in NI as it is like a shot but the wife (Irish)wouldn't entertain it,especially after recent events in Derry.

Why are you speaking for everyone who doesn't see things as I see them?

Mu view is based on the large large majority who are proud of our emergence as an independent state and our progress since. I think many many of them see the north as unfinished business and would see a rejection of a request for unity as a repudiation of all those things they are proud of.
I think the fearmongering around the negatives of a UI would have to be very very strong and convincing for people to reject it.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

1) No Assembly 2) Brexit that will more than likely create a hard border.




You are going to get a lot of pain regardless.






You will need to explain this to me. Your Irish wife wants to leave NI because dissident republicans planted a bomb?

I'm English and live in England but would have no problem relocating to NI but the wife wasn't keen before and recent events sealed it.
I'd like to see a UI but think it's a none starter at the moment.
I'm interested in this subject as my family is originally from Donegal/Derry.

McMurphy

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm English and live in England but would have no problem relocating to NI but the wife wasn't keen before and recent events sealed it.
I'd like to see a UI but think it's a none starter at the moment.
I'm interested in this subject as my family is originally from Donegal/Derry.

The last bomb in Ireland that caused any injury to anyone was in 2001 the last one causing death was in 1999 (Loyalists assassinated Rosemary Nelson). (20 years ago)

In contrast, the last bombs in Britain that maimed and killed people in major numbers were in 2017 at the Ariana Grande concert. (Less than two years ago)

Does your wife know this I wonder?

James Brown

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

RobMc59 mentioned the possibility of a year of intense negotiations to which you responded with the term "scaremongering".

That's correct but out of context. I 'thanked' his post because I agreed with him and carried on the conversation regarding the scaremongering going on within the discussion.

What would my view that there's scaremongering going on have to do with being for or against any idea of negotiations? It's two separate topics.

With the ignorance of NI and Ireland shown by the Conservatives re Brexit and the idiocy of their representative for all things Northern, Bradley, I wouldn't be overly confident in west minister giving tuppence hapenny for Unionists or anyone in the north unless they've a supporting vote out of it. They certainly aren't interested in it's people of any stripe.

RobMc59

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

The last bomb in Ireland that caused significant injury to anyone was in 2001 the last one causing death was in 1999 (Loyalists assassinated Rosemary Nelson). (20 years ago)

In contrast, the last bombs in Britain that maimed and killed people in major numbers were in 2017 at the Ariana Grande concert. (Less than two years ago)

Does your wife know this I wonder?

She is originally from Drogheda and has never really been particularly interested in living in NI,that was something I was interested in-she likes breaks in NI but that`s as far as it goes.We`ve obviously spent a lot of time in Ireland (mainly East coast)and apart from a few hairy moments(for me!) around the back roads of Dundalk back in the 80`s there`s never been any problem-I think the car bomb was an excuse to say no to NI as a place to live-we`ve been to Derry since that incident and had a great time.

volchitsa

RobMc59 wrote: »

She is originally from Drogheda and has never really been particularly interested in living in NI,that was something I was interested in-she likes breaks in NI but that`s as far as it goes.We`ve obviously spent a lot of time in Ireland (mainly East coast)and apart from a few hairy moments(for me!) around the back roads of Dundalk back in the 80`s there`s never been any problem-I think the car bomb was an excuse to say no to NI as a place to live-we`ve been to Derry since that incident and had a great time.

Right so it's not really because of the events in Derry at all then, there'd have been some other reason if that hadn't happened. Only you seemed to be saying it had been a factor.

RobMc59

volchitsa wrote: »

Right so it's not really because of the events in Derry at all then, there'd have been some other reason if that hadn't happened. Only you seemed to be saying it had been a factor.

It`s no big deal,I`d been trying to persuade her to consider Derry but as I said she was`nt keen and yes,it probably was a convenient excuse-as I said I`d definitely live in NI given the chance.I`d be happy to live there,either side of the Foyle .

Avatar MIA

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-majority-in-north-unhappy-with-handling-of-brexit-by-may-and-dup-1.3818264

This colours the debate. 9% of protestants in favour of a UI and 16% not sure. At 9% that's double previous poll indications. With only 45% in total automatically against. And this is PRE brexit. Interesting Times

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

It`s no big deal,I`d been trying to persuade her to consider Derry but as I said she was`nt keen and yes,it probably was a convenient excuse-as I said I`d definitely live in NI given the chance.I`d be happy to live there,either side of the Foyle .

I understand now why you have come to the conclusion that everything is just dandy in NI.

Worth noting that your wife isn't unusual in not wanting to come back. One in three I think leave NI for college etc., and doesn't come back. There is a huge brain drain.

FrancieBrady

Avatar MIA wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-majority-in-north-unhappy-with-handling-of-brexit-by-may-and-dup-1.3818264

This colours the debate. 9% of protestants in favour of a UI and 16% not sure. At 9% that's double previous poll indications. With only 45% in total automatically against. And this is PRE brexit. Interesting Times

Surprising result alright. There is one thing certain imo, a border poll is inevitable within the next few years. Scotland will be looking another IndyRef too.

Avatar MIA

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Surprising result alright. There is one thing certain imo, a border poll is inevitable within the next few years. Scotland will be looking another IndyRef too.

The trend is very important. The tide of history should be clear to anyone not neck deep in that large African river.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

I understand now why you have come to the conclusion that everything is just dandy in NI.

Worth noting that your wife isn't unusual in not wanting to come back. One in three I think leave NI for college etc., and doesn't come back. There is a huge brain drain.

As I said,my wife is from Drogheda so it's not a case of not wanting to come back (I'm assuming you know where Drogheda is)I'm àlso aware you're not particularly enamoured with Britain/NI.Which is fine , I respect your opinion but disagree with it.

janfebmar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is one thing certain imo, a border poll is inevitable within the next few years.

I doubt it, less than a third say they would vote for a United Ireland in such a poll.

The interesting thing about the survey is that just "13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent."

FrancieBrady

janfebmar wrote: »

I doubt it, less than a third say they would vote for a United Ireland in such a poll.

The interesting thing about the survey is that just "13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent."

I'd agree that O'Neill is not up to speed as a leader. Happens quite a bit after a strong leader and they didn't come much stronger or popular than Martin McGuinness.

The trend is heading inexorably to a border poll imo. Imagine the horror among the DUP when they see figures like that, and Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

zapitastas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd agree that O'Neill is not up to speed as a leader. Happens quite a bit after a strong leader and they didn't come much stronger or popular than Martin McGuinness.

The trend is heading inexorably to a border poll imo. Imagine the horror among the DUP when they see figures like that, and Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

Made all the more sweeter that they have brought it upon themselves. I wonder does the likes of Sammy have the awareness to realise that or would he be taking the usual osterich approach