Border Poll discussion

FrancieBrady

zapitastas wrote: »

Made all the more sweeter that they have brought it upon themselves. I wonder does the likes of Sammy have the awareness to realise that or would he be taking the usual osterich approach

TBH history shows us that the DUP reaction to progress and change has hurt their 'place in the union'. From the AIA through to Brexit they seem intent to bring about a UI. More power to them. Soon as they are out of government, watch the doors banging shut across their 'Union'. May has already tried it and they had the power to stop, imagine what will happen when they are a small party on another island that Britain doesn't care about.

Imreoir2

janfebmar wrote: »

I doubt it, less than a third say they would vote for a United Ireland in such a poll.

The interesting thing about the survey is that just "13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent."

Less than half said they would vote for staying in the UK in such a poll, give them a couple of years of no-deal Brexit and let's see where the "don't knows" go.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

As I said,my wife is from Drogheda so it's not a case of not wanting to come back (I'm assuming you know where Drogheda is)I'm o aware you're not particularly enamoured with Britain/NI.Which is fine , I respect your opinion but disagree with it.

I know Drogheda well. My uncle lived and worked up there most of his life. My two cousins left to go to university and never went back.

Both Britain and Northern Ireland are totally dysfunctional. How could you be enamoured with them?

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

I know Drogheda well. My uncle lived and worked up there most of his life. My two cousins left to go to university and never went back.

Both Britain and Northern Ireland are totally dysfunctional. How could you be enamoured with them?

Probably because I'm British I like Britain-i also like Ireland and NI although mentioning i like NI seems to annoy some people.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Surprising result alright. There is one thing certain imo, a border poll is inevitable within the next few years. Scotland will be looking another IndyRef too.

The poll does show up some interesting results


60% think SF should take their seats in Westminister, while only 19% do not. That is a 3 to 1 view that they should take their seats.

79% think the Assembly should be reinstated irrespective of how significant the difference between the parties are. That is the most significant point in the poll. Will either of the two sectarian parties listen?

Only 38% think there should be a referendum on Irish unity, and only 32% would vote for it. When you consider that 67% favour a soft Brexit staying in the SM and CU, that suggests that views on Brexit are not translating into support for a united Ireland.

Looks like a poll will go on the backburner again for a while.

blanch152

An awful lot of data in that poll, both North and South.

Sinn Fein has 21% support, but only 15% among those aged 50-64 and 8% among those aged over 65. Those who remember the Troubles are much less likely to vote for Sinn Fein.

jm08

Blanch - this is the most relevant and important data from that poll:

But 59 per cent say they want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the Border – even if it means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and the North.

But by far the biggest majority (67 per cent) is in support of a very soft Brexit where the UK stays in the EU single market and the customs union to avoid the need for checks anywhere.

janfebmar

When the poll reveals that only 38% think there should be a referendum on Irish unity, and only 32% would vote for it, it shows the intentions of those calling for a Border Poll are quite divisive, and not helpful.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

The poll does show up some interesting results


60% think SF should take their seats in Westminister, while only 19% do not. That is a 3 to 1 view that they should take their seats.

79% think the Assembly should be reinstated irrespective of how significant the difference between the parties are. That is the most significant point in the poll. Will either of the two sectarian parties listen?

Only 38% think there should be a referendum on Irish unity, and only 32% would vote for it. When you consider that 67% favour a soft Brexit staying in the SM and CU, that suggests that views on Brexit are not translating into support for a united Ireland.

Looks like a poll will go on the backburner again for a while.

Well, when they have the opportunity to next vote for non-abstentionist parties, they should.

Also, were there any numbers there on what percentage of people in the "South" would like to see a border poll and what percentage might vote positively toward it?

I'm almost certain I saw them. But your analysis seems to have overlooked them. In error I'm sure.

FrancieBrady

Where is the outrage about presenting political views along sectarian lines I wonder?

janfebmar

The danger of the poll is it is a small sample, and also the questions asked may have been loaded.
A lot of people in the Republic may aspire to a "United Ireland" but when it is pointed out to them the cost in terms of raised taxes, lowered pensions and welfare etc needed to pay for such a "United Ireland", to say nothing of having a million people here against their will, the enthusiasm for a UI evaporates somewhat.

maccored

janfebmar wrote: »

The danger of the poll is it is a small sample, and also the questions asked may have been loaded.
A lot of people in the Republic may aspire to a "United Ireland" but when it is pointed out to them the cost in terms of raised taxes, lowered pensions and welfare etc needed to pay for such a "United Ireland", to say nothing of having a million people here against their will, the enthusiasm for a UI evaporates somewhat.

fantastic to see you've worked out how a UI should be set up long before anyone else has had a chance to discuss it. well done.

janfebmar

maccored wrote: »

fantastic to see you've worked out how a UI should be set up ...

Nobody has worked out how a UI should be set up. If it did happen it would be chaos, we cannot even build a childrens hospital without the cost per bed being double that of next next most expensive hospital per bed in the world.

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

Blanch - this is the most relevant and important data from that poll:

I did point to that, what is relevant is the contrast with those wanting unity. There has been a narrative on here that the wish for a soft Brexit equates with a wish for unity. To be fair, such posters are only following the lead of Mary-Lou. However, the poll shows this to be a false linkage.

Charles Babbage

blanch152 wrote: »

Only 38% think there should be a referendum on Irish unity, and only 32% would vote for it. When you consider that 67% favour a soft Brexit staying in the SM and CU, that suggests that views on Brexit are not translating into support for a united Ireland.

Looks like a poll will go on the backburner again for a while.

What people want is to get rid of the threat of Brexit, either through no Brexit or NI having special status. Then a border poll is not urgent and a proper proposal can emerge in time.

A border poll only become urgent if there is a hard Brexit as this would mean that the British had given up on responsible government in NI.

FrancieBrady

Charles Babbage wrote: »

What people want is to get rid of the threat of Brexit, either through no Brexit or NI having special status. Then a border poll is not urgent and a proper proposal can emerge in time.

A border poll only become urgent if there is a hard Brexit as this would mean that the British had given up on responsible government in NI.

Brexit is clearly the game changer. Not surprised by the answers on a border poll, my own view would be 'not right now'. But I do think that is where we are heading.

*Edit: is it true this was only a sample of 560 people?

facehugger99

It’s quite clear, despite what SF and their supporters constantly peddle, that there’s absolutely no appetite for a border poll, much less unification.

It’s still the fabled 20 years away folks.

jm08

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Brexit is clearly the game changer. Not surprised by the answers on a border poll, my own view would be 'not right now'. But I do think that is where we are heading.

*Edit: is it true this was only a sample of 560 people?

Yes. Thats why they have moved the margin of error out to 4%.

Charles Babbage

facehugger99 wrote: »

It’s quite clear, despite what SF and their supporters constantly peddle, that there’s absolutely no appetite for a border poll, much less unification.

It’s still the fabled 20 years away folks.

I think you haven't been paying attention. People prefer that it is a decade away but the British government could change all of that in just 3 weeks.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

It’s quite clear, despite what SF and their supporters constantly peddle, that there’s absolutely no appetite for a border poll, much less unification.

It’s still the fabled 20 years away folks.

I would eat a fair bit with a growing 38% appetite tbh.

The trend before the game changing event is important data

Avatar MIA

FrancieBrady wrote: »

*Edit: is it true this was only a sample of 560 people?

For the republic a poll of around 1,000 is used, but because NI is less than half population wise a lower poll sample can be used and the margin of error wont change hugely.

And it being a poll on something fairly nebulous it's grand.

Peregrinus

Avatar MIA wrote: »

For the republic a poll of around 1,000 is used, but because NI is less than half population wise a lower poll sample can be used and the margin of error wont change hugely.

And it being a poll on something fairly nebulous it's grand.

There isn't really a direct correspondence between population size and sample size required for a given degree of reliability. The larger your sample size, the greater your level of confidence, but this is true regardless of the size of the overall population.

janfebmar

Avatar MIA wrote: »

For the republic a poll of around 1,000 is used, but because NI is less than half population wise a lower poll sample can be used and the margin of error wont change hugely.

They could only find 500 people in N.I. willing to answer a poll for the Irish Times;).

Avatar MIA

Peregrinus wrote: »

There isn't really a direct correspondence between population size and sample size required for a given degree of reliability. The larger your sample size, the greater your level of confidence, but this is true regardless of the size of the overall population.

Which is more reliable a sample of 100 out of a population of 101 or 1,000 out of the population of America?

janfebmar

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Which is more reliable a sample of 100 out of a population of 101 or 1,000 out of the population of America?

Depends who decides to answer the poll. If it was the China Times who commissioned the poll in America I would not trust it or trust that the 1000 people they found were representative of America.

People sometimes boycott polls or do not answer them. Last time there was a referendum in N. Ireland and people were asked if they were in favour of Irish unity or wanted to stay in the UK, 99% of people wanted to stay in the UK, but then the voter turnout was only 59%. So 41% did not vote.

Imreoir2

janfebmar wrote: »

The danger of the poll is it is a small sample, and also the questions asked may have been loaded.
A lot of people in the Republic may aspire to a "United Ireland" but when it is pointed out to them the cost in terms of raised taxes, lowered pensions and welfare etc needed to pay for such a "United Ireland", to say nothing of having a million people here against their will, the enthusiasm for a UI evaporates somewhat.

This does somewhat assume that the average Irish voter is currently ignorent of there being a possibility that Unification may have a cost involved or that Unionism exists and may not be the biggest fans of a United Ireland.

In reality I don't think either of these things will come as a suprise. Especially given that they are raised ad infinitum every single time the word unification is mentioned. I think the vast majority of voters are already aware of them and as such I doubt their "relevation" to the voter is likely to have much impact on voting intentions.

facehugger99

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

blanch152

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This does somewhat assume that the average Irish voter is currently ignorent of there being a possibility that Unification may have a cost involved or that Unionism exists and may not be the biggest fans of a United Ireland.

In reality I don't think either of these things will come as a suprise. Especially given that they are raised ad infinitum every single time the word unification is mentioned. I think the vast majority of voters are already aware of them and as such I doubt their "relevation" to the voter is likely to have much impact on voting intentions.

They are raised in political discussions, but the ordinary person on the street hasn't given those issues a second thought.

Imreoir2

facehugger99 wrote: »

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

I suspect you are wrong. A previous poll carried out using the method this one used found that only 20% supported Unification. When the other major polling company in NI, Lucid Talk, carried out a poll without using a face to face interview method, they found that support for Unification was much higher.

Should a no-deal Brexit happen, you can be sure that nationalists will know which side their bread is spat on and will vote to leave the UK.

facehugger99

blanch152 wrote: »

They are raised in political discussions, but the ordinary person on the street hasn't given those issues a second thought.

Very true. There's an almost pavlovian response to the question from the average Irish voter who's gone through 12 years of our education system.

Once the costs, security and other socio-political issues are carefully laid out and explained, the appetite for unification will dissipate.