Border Poll discussion

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

They are raised in political discussions, but the ordinary person on the street hasn't given those issues a second thought.

Can you support this claim?

I suspect you will be hard pressed to find a significant number of voters who would not identify cost and unionist opposition as two of the major challenges facing unification.

janfebmar

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Should a no-deal Brexit happen, you can be sure that nationalists will know which side their bread is spat on and will vote to leave the UK.

And give up the NHS etc?
What if the UK continues to do better economically than the average EU country? Unemployment in the UK is much less than in the Eurozone.

Peregrinus

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Which is more reliable a sample of 100 out of a population of 101 or 1,000 out of the population of America?

The former isn't really a "sample", is it?

Margins of error is expressed as a percentage, for a given level of confidence. The industry standard for opinion polling is to aim for a 95% level of confidence. For example, if I say that a particular poll has a 3% margin of error, what that means is "if we repeated this poll 100 times (with a fresh sample each time), 95% of the time we'd get results that are within 3% of the results that we have here".

Obviosly, you can only make that statement if its possible to repeat the poll 100 time with a different sample each time. If your sample is 100 out of a population of 101, that's not possible, so the statement in that context would be meaningless.

But, leaving aside cases like that, once the difference between the sample size and the overall population is such that you could meaningfully think of doing the same poll repeatedly with newly-drawn samples each time, then you can express the accuracy of a poll in this way. And, when you do, the calculation of the accuracy involves a couple of variables, including the sample size but - surprisingly, I grant you - it's not really sensitive to the size of the overall population. There is no material difference in the margin of error with a sample of 500 for a population of 1.9 million (Northern Ireland) and a population of 4.8 million (Republic of Ireland). In both case the margin of error, expressed to the nearest per cent with a confidence level of 95%, will be 4%.

Imreoir2

janfebmar wrote: »

And give up the NHS etc?
What if the UK continues to do better economically than the average EU country? Unemployment in the UK is much less than in the Eurozone.

What if pigs fly? Bury your head in the sand, but the polls are clear on this question. No-deal Brexit will see 98% of Ntionalists vote for unification.

downcow

facehugger99 wrote: »

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

This is very true and a real factor.

facehugger99

Imreoir2 wrote: »

the polls are clear on this question. No-deal Brexit will see 98% of Ntionalists vote for unification.

So 98% of people in favour of unification are in favour of unification?

What about the missing 2% - are they pretend nationalists or something?:pac:

Dytalus

janfebmar wrote: »

And give up the NHS etc?
What if the UK continues to do better economically than the average EU country? Unemployment in the UK is much less than in the Eurozone.

There are other metrics that go into "doing better economically". By most of those metrics while the UK as a whole is doing pretty well, Northern Ireland is doing...not so well.

I don't see why that would change anytime in the future. In fact, given the loss of EU development funding towards NI, I'd wager the gap between NI and Britain is going to get bigger. Some £3.5 billion between 2017-2020 is vanishing. If the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, Irish MEPs (with help from UK MEPs I'm sure, but I don't tend to get as much information on what they're up to coming my way) have made sure the PEACE and the Ireland-NI-Scotland Interreg will keep EU funding until 2027...but that only amounts to 500 million. £3b will still be disappearing unless the UK looks to replace it itself.

The only such commitment of similar funding so far made by May is £1.6b...and only for regions in England.

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

And I would suspect otherwise. But then I'm biased and you're coming from a point of authority.

Give this nonsense a break. You're as bad as downcow extrapolating your opinion onto wider society.

downcow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What if pigs fly? Bury your head in the sand, but the polls are clear on this question. No-deal Brexit will see 98% of Ntionalists vote for unification.

A very strange statement. Surely 100% of nationalists would vote for a UI or else they are not nationalists.
That’s why some of these polls need taken with a pinch of salt. The terms being used are interpreted differently by different people

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Very true. There's an almost pavlovian response to the question from the average Irish voter who's gone through 12 years of our education system.

Once the costs, security and other socio-political issues are carefully laid out and explained, the appetite for unification will dissipate.

And again it is all the negatives.

People just aren't as pessimistic as that. FF FG and all the political parties here will be on the side of unity when a poll comes. The EU will be on side as will the US and every major world power (I see no indications there would be anybody advocating against it)
It's a matter of opinion whether the rest of the UK will be for it. As such, the government will be expected to be neutral on it, but considering all the problems it will solve for them, considering that despite protesting that she was a 'unionist', the current leader of the Tory party actually and profoundly, attempted to sell out northern Ireland unionism (at least Thatcher only privately considered it) and the Labour has always been in favour of a UI, I would be amazed if they offer anything like the opposition to the idea that they did on Scotland.
The Rubicon has been crossed on it with the signing of the GFA - they are gone when the opportunity arises.

That is an uphill climb for those against the idea. It will be good to see how Irish partitionists align themselves with belligerent unionism. That alliance isn't a recipe for inspiring momentum against a UI imo.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Give this nonsense a break. You're as bad as downcow extrapolating your opinion onto wider society.

Some evidence please of when I do this. Could it be that you dont like facts getting in the way of a bonnie story?

facehugger99

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And I would suspect otherwise. But then I'm biased and you're coming from a point of authority.

Give this nonsense a break. You're as bad as downcow extrapolating your opinion onto wider society.

There are opinions other than your own, that are allowed to be expressed.

Feel free to disagree, but please stop trying to stifle the debate.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

A very strange statement. Surely 100% of nationalists would vote for a UI or else they are not nationalists.
That’s why some of these polls need taken with a pinch of salt. The terms being used are interpreted differently by different people

The big change evident in this poll is the quite dramatic divergence from the 'Union' among protestants (still don't know why there isn't uproar from some about the sectarian nature of this poll)
Doesn't seem to me that they are as invested in/committed to following the leader, as some thought.

Any thoughts on that?

McMurphy

facehugger99 wrote: »

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

What a load of bollocks tbh.

You're claiming that lots of Nationalist people in the north feel pressurised in some way to give a particular kind of answer, to some representative from a polling company, who (in my experiences) always clearly identify themselves beforehand?

Unless of course you've some evidence to back this up?

Otherwise, I'm going to chalk it down as yet more unsubstantiated horse manure from yourself.

Needs called out already.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, when they have the opportunity to next vote for non-abstentionist parties, they should.

Also, were there any numbers there on what percentage of people in the "South" would like to see a border poll and what percentage might vote positively toward it?

I'm almost certain I saw them. But your analysis seems to have overlooked them. In error I'm sure.

So would our resident partitionists care to comment on the "Southern" figures or were ALL the answers likely to have been pressured and somewhat under a sense for "nationalist duress"?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Some evidence please of when I do this. Could it be that you dont like facts getting in the way of a bonnie story?

Head over to the Brexit thread where you were consistently hauled up on your penchant for stating things you think as if they apply to a larger group.

You've gotten better, I'll give you that but you know quite well to what I refer.

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

There are opinions other than your own, that are allowed to be expressed.

Feel free to disagree, but please stop trying to stifle the debate.

I'm not stifling debate. I'm trying to stifle your shítetalk.

For all the demolition that blanch states that he does and your incessant assertions based on only your "feels", it's making me think that your ideas may not hold as much truck with the majority of the island or even hold as much water as you may think they do.

You call out those of us wanting reunification as if we're solely working on emotion and yet you do the same.

And we have to give you costings too? I mean Jesus. Some perspective.

facehugger99

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

What a load of bollocks tbh.

You're claiming that lots of Nationalist people in the north feel pressurised in some way to give a particular kind of answer, to some representative from a polling company, who (in my experiences) always clearly identify themselves beforehand?

Unless of course you've some evidence to back this up?

Otherwise, I'm going to chalk it down as yet more unsubstantiated horse manure from yourself.

Needs called out already.

Overly aggressive post - no need for it TBH and probably doesn't deserve a response


However....

There are a myriad of studies that show difference between poll answers and actual election results - people give the answer they are 'expected' to give to polling companies.

It's a very widely accepted phenomena - google it or have a look a few recent election results compared to pre-election polling predictions.

People in nationalist communities would be very wary of giving certain answers to pollsters - I think you'd find what they do in the election booth would be very different.

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

Overly aggressive post - no need for it TBH and probably doesn't deserve a response


However....

There are a myriad of studies that show difference between poll answers and actual election results - people give the answer they are 'expected' to give to polling companies.

It's a very widely accepted phenomena - google it or have a look a few recent election results compared to pre-election polling predictions.

People in nationalist communities would be very wary of giving certain answers to pollsters - I think you'd find what they do in the election booth would be very different.

As I'm sure would unionists. Doesn't it work both ways?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Overly aggressive post - no need for it TBH and probably doesn't deserve a response


However....

There are a myriad of studies that show difference between poll answers and actual election results - people give the answer they are 'expected' to give to polling companies.

It's a very widely accepted phenomena - google it or have a look a few recent election results compared to pre-election polling predictions.

People in nationalist communities would be very wary of giving certain answers to pollsters - I think you'd find what they do in the election booth would be very different.

So would you give all the answers in this poll a much wider margin of error or just some?

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The big change evident in this poll is the quite dramatic divergence from the 'Union' among protestants (still don't know why there isn't uproar from some about the sectarian nature of this poll)
Doesn't seem to me that they are as invested in/committed to following the leader, as some thought.

Any thoughts on that?

remind me what that dramatic divergence was?

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So would you give all the answers in this poll a much wider margin of error or just some?

Given the history of IRA violence against their own community, it's pretty obvious which demographic would feel under the most pressure to answer 'correctly' to some pollsters' questions - I know that's what I'd do if I was unfortunate enough to find myself living under those conditions.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So would our resident partitionists care to comment on the "Southern" figures or were ALL the answers likely to have been pressured and somewhat under a sense for "nationalist duress"?

I don't want to speak for anyone else but I don't think duress was implied. I know lots of nationalists who love the romantic idea but when digging deeper the get more real

Dytalus

facehugger99 wrote: »

There are a myriad of studies that show difference between poll answers and actual election results - people give the answer they are 'expected' to give to polling companies.

It's a very widely accepted phenomena - google it or have a look a few recent election results compared to pre-election polling predictions.

If there are a myriad of such studies, it shouldn't be too difficult for you to find one backing up your assertion. It's your claim, it's your job to back it up.

facehugger99 wrote: »

People in nationalist communities would be very wary of giving certain answers to pollsters - I think you'd find what they do in the election booth would be very different.

Bold formatting mine. Quite the assertion to make without providing any proof. Considering in the last Assembly election the numbers with regard to opinion polling didn't vary wildly from the actual election result.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

remind me what that dramatic divergence was?

72% of Protestants, think Theresa May is running the country badly.
52% of Protestants think the DUP are doing a bad job.
57% of Protestants think Arlene is doing a bad job.
60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.

That is hugely different to the 'Union is strong in NI' narrative we get from you and unionist parties.

What do you think these voters will do if Brexit does indeed bring what is predicated it will? Have the DUP put everything in the pot on a huge bet that Brexit will bring milk and honey for northern Ireland?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Given the history of IRA violence against their own community, it's pretty obvious which demographic would feel under the most pressure to answer 'correctly' to some pollsters' questions - I know that's what I'd do if I was unfortunate enough to find myself living under those conditions.

The IRA are threatening people to give the 'right' answer? Is that the point?

ancapailldorcha

No more bickering please.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

72% of Protestants, think Theresa May is running the country badly.
52% of Protestants think the DUP are doing a bad job.
57% of Protestants think Arlene is doing a bad job.
60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.

That is hugely different to the 'Union is strong in NI' narrative we get from you and unionist parties.

What do you think these voters will do if Brexit does indeed bring what is predicated it will? Have the DUP put everything in the pot on a huge bet that Brexit will bring milk and honey for northern Ireland?

I don't think there is anyone on this thread or any other Brexit thread who have said that the DUP are doing the right thing for Northern Ireland. If there are a few, it is certainly less than the 33% of Northerners who believe the DUP are doing a good job.

The poll is very much a mixed bag. It perpetuates the sectarian view of Northern Ireland by dividing views between Catholics and Protestants. However, there are a number of very significant findings. That only 32% of voters want a united Ireland when so many are so unhappy with the way Brexit is handled and the way the DUP are acting tells a really important story.

One very important trend is the apparent move among the unionist community away from the extremist ranting of the DUP. That is to be welcomed. The demise of one of the two sectarian parties would be a real boon if this was followed through in either Assembly or Westminister elections. If the nationalists could then step up to the plate and reject their sectarian party, we might see a more normalisation of politics in the medium term. The only caveat to the rejoicing about the failures of the DUP is that while 67% of the population think they are doing a bad job, that means that 33% are either neutral or happy. Given that they got 36% of the vote in the last Westminister elections, that is not a statistically significant difference.

Another very surprising aspect of the poll is that only 62% would vote for a united Ireland in the South. When you consider that the GFA got overwhelming support at 94%, this is quite a significant difference.

I would agree very strongly with the following two paragraphs from the Irish Times analysis of the poll,

"One of the obvious conclusions from the poll is that the people of Northern Ireland are being failed by politicians of almost all stripes – from the British government down. The strong desire for a soft Brexit and the avoidance of a hard border is not being represented at Westminster because the DUP is out of step with the popular mood while Sinn Féin continues its outmoded policy of abstentionism. Both parties need a radical change in approach if they are to restore confidence in the political process. Yet there is an appetite for politics; 79 per cent of people in the North favour the restoration of the Stormont Assembly irrespective of differences between the parties.

On the question of a referendum on Irish unity the poll findings are a warning that politicians on both sides of the Border should tread warily. A clear majority in the North continues to oppose unity and any perception that it could be foisted on an unwilling population would be fraught with danger."

All in all, this poll is a boost for a soft Brexit but also a blow for a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

On the question of a referendum on Irish unity the poll findings are a warning that politicians on both sides of the Border should tread warily. A clear majority in the North continues to oppose unity and any perception that it could be foisted on an unwilling population would be fraught with danger."

:D Clear to me that whoever wrote that, is coming from the same biased position that some here have.

'oppose Unity'?? Where was that question asked in the poll. If I was asked if now was the right time for a border poll, my answer would be No, as stated before.

That is in no way to be understood as 'opposition' to Unity.

'Foisted on an unwilling population' is further evidence of a sanctimonious bias, as viewed here too. Nobody is suggesting 'foisting anything on anybody'.

The writer reveals themselves.

blanch152

facehugger99 wrote: »

A lot of nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the 'right' answer to these types of surveys.

In the secrecy of the polling booth, the majority of middle class, public servant nationalists know what side their bread is buttered on.

I suspect the real figures in support of unification are much, much lower in NI.

I wouldn't say that nationalists in NI feel under pressure to give the "right" answer to these types of surveys. You often see in referenda huge differences between a theoretical question being asked in an opinion poll and a preference being expressed about a real referendum about to take place. I would be of the strong opinion that two opinion polls, one taken the day before a Secretary of State announces a decision to hold a border poll and one taken the day after would show radically different results.

The vast majority of nationalists in the North, almost without thinking, say that they want a united Ireland. Whether they would say the same when it is in immediate prospect is a different matter. Similarly, it is possible, though much much less likely, that some unionists would see a border poll itself as a betrayal and would abstain, decide not to vote etc.

The real gobsmacking result from this poll is that only 62% in the South would vote for a united Ireland. If unionists are feeling betrayed by the lack of support from the rest of the UK, surely nationalists must also be feeling the same from the South?