Border Poll discussion

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:D Clear to me that whoever wrote that, is coming from the same biased position that some here have.

'oppose Unity'?? Where was that question asked in the poll. If I was asked if now was the right time for a border poll, my answer would be No, as stated before.

That is in no way to be understood as 'opposition' to Unity.

'Foisted on an unwilling population' is further evidence of a sanctimonious bias, as viewed here too. Nobody is suggesting 'foisting anything on anybody'.

The writer reveals themselves.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/irish-people-united-ireland-referendum-poll

This opinion poll from last year shows 73% in the South in favour of a united Ireland. That has fallen to 62% in the most recent Irish Times poll.

https://www.joe.ie/news/new-poll-suggest-majority-northern-ireland-support-united-ireland-brexit-639050

This opinion poll in the North from last year showed that a majority (58%) wanted a united Ireland in the event of a hard Brexit. 40% wanted a united Ireland no matter the circumstances. That the figure has dropped to 32% must be a blow to proponents of a united Ireland.

I have long argued that as the prospect of a Border poll grew stronger that support would fall. The increased chatter around the prospect (even if such chatter is largely without substance) has actually seen such a prediction come to pass. The more the likes of Mary-Lou are talking about a Border poll, the more support is falling.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/irish-people-united-ireland-referendum-poll

This opinion poll from last year shows 73% in the South in favour of a united Ireland. That has fallen to 62% in the most recent Irish Times poll.

https://www.joe.ie/news/new-poll-suggest-majority-northern-ireland-support-united-ireland-brexit-639050

This opinion poll in the North from last year showed that a majority (58%) wanted a united Ireland in the event of a hard Brexit. 40% wanted a united Ireland no matter the circumstances. That the figure has dropped to 32% must be a blow to proponents of a united Ireland.

I have long argued that as the prospect of a Border poll grew stronger that support would fall. The increased chatter around the prospect (even if such chatter is largely without substance) has actually seen such a prediction come to pass. The more the likes of Mary-Lou are talking about a Border poll, the more support is falling.

32% would vote for unity NOW and 23% are 'undecided'.

I think those figures in last years poll have not necessarily changed if there is a Hard Brexit.
You are extrapolating and being disingenuous with the actual question asked.

Have you not ridiculed that Irish Central poll and the work of FF's Mark O'Daly before?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

32% would vote for unity NOW and 23% are 'undecided'.

I think those figures in last years poll have not necessarily changed if there is a Hard Brexit.
You are extrapolating and being disingenuous with the actual question asked.

Have you not ridiculed that Irish Central poll and the work of FF's Mark O'Daly before?

If you can produce a different set of opinion polls where the support for unity in the South is less than 62%, I am happy to concede I erred in suggesting that support is falling.

facehugger99

blanch152 wrote: »

[

I have long argued that as the prospect of a Border poll grew stronger that support would fall. The increased chatter around the prospect (even if such chatter is largely without substance) has actually seen such a prediction come to pass. The more the likes of Mary-Lou are talking about a Border poll, the more support is falling.

Spot on.

It is very much a theoretical unification at some unspecified date in the far future that the Irish electorate want.

The prospect of an actual unification, with all the economic devastation that would follow, is clearly very unpalatable.

BonnieSituation

You widely ridiculed the methodology if that Irish central poll when it came out and now you're holding it up as the starting point on which to measure the Irish Times poll.

And now 62% is a terrible result.

What's a good result in your mind for unification?
80/90?

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Head over to the Brexit thread where you were consistently hauled up on your penchant for stating things you think as if they apply to a larger group.

You've gotten better, I'll give you that but you know quite well to what I refer.

Sure link a wee bit of evidence for, unless of course you don’t have any?

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

Spot on.

It is very much a theoretical unification at some unspecified date in the far future that the Irish electorate want.

The prospect of an actual unification, with all the economic devastation that would follow, is clearly very unpalatable.

To you two more than most it seems.

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Sure link a wee bit of evidence for, unless of course you don’t have any?

Are you for real?

Sure. But while I'm off searching for that be sure to figure out what goal posts you plan on moving next.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If you can produce a different set of opinion polls where the support for unity in the South is less than 62%, I am happy to concede I erred in suggesting that support is falling.

Personally I think that at the moment, ahead of any proper debate that 62% is about spot on, give or take a few percent.

Take the Same Sex issue and ahead of a proper debate on the issue in 2005, only a slim majority (51%) said they would pass the legislation. In the end after the information was presented and debated it passed with a majority of 62% in favour. That 62% has been characterised as an overwhelming victory for the proposal.

So if that is the starting number, I'd be more than happy with that.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

72% of Protestants, think Theresa May is running the country badly.
52% of Protestants think the DUP are doing a bad job.
57% of Protestants think Arlene is doing a bad job.
60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.

That is hugely different to the 'Union is strong in NI' narrative we get from you and unionist parties.

What do you think these voters will do if Brexit does indeed bring what is predicated it will? Have the DUP put everything in the pot on a huge bet that Brexit will bring milk and honey for northern Ireland?

I don’t have the energy to go check but I will be surprised if you are telling 60% of unionist want a border in the Irish Sea. I think there must me more to that question than you are stating. As for you other 3 stats there is nothing there surprised me. Is this the same poll that quotes even less satisfaction in Michelle than Arlene ?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the energy to go check but I will be surprised if you are telling 60% of unionist want a border in the Irish Sea. I think there must me more to that question than you are stating. As for you other 3 stats there is nothing there surprised me. Is this the same poll that quotes even less satisfaction in Michelle than Arlene ?

Are you saying that the polling company asked one question but printed the responses as if they were to a different one?

That's some accusation.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:D Clear to me that whoever wrote that, is coming from the same biased position that some here have.

'oppose Unity'?? Where was that question asked in the poll. If I was asked if now was the right time for a border poll, my answer would be No, as stated before.

That is in no way to be understood as 'opposition' to Unity.

'Foisted on an unwilling population' is further evidence of a sanctimonious bias, as viewed here too. Nobody is suggesting 'foisting anything on anybody'.

The writer reveals themselves.

There is no point in shooting the messenger. You are doing a Bonnie

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the energy to go check but I will be surprised if you are telling 60% of unionist want a border in the Irish Sea. I think there must me more to that question than you are stating. As for you other 3 stats there is nothing there surprised me. Is this the same poll that quotes even less satisfaction in Michelle than Arlene ?

So to avoid addressing the issues these figures raise, you pretend there is something in there, that clearly in black and white isn't there. (i.e. I TOLD YOU, 60% of Unionists want a border in the Irish Sea....WHERE does it say that???) and you also try to divert to 'look over there at SF'.

:rolleyes::rolleyes: Pointless tbh.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Personally I think that at the moment, ahead of any proper debate that 62% is about spot on, give or take a few percent.

Take the Same Sex issue and ahead of a proper debate on the issue in 2005, only a slim majority (51%) said they would pass the legislation. In the end after the information was presented and debated it passed with a majority of 62% in favour. That 62% has been characterised as an overwhelming victory for the proposal.

So if that is the starting number, I'd be more than happy with that.

Fair enough, we can agree to differ, but I am surprised that with a border poll in the news, only 62% would support it. Unfortunately, unless a border poll actually happens in the next year or two (and I think that very unlikely), we will never know who was more accurate.

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Sure link a wee bit of evidence for, unless of course you don’t have any?

So despite my better judgement I went off and tried to search for your Brexit posts but alas, you've been banned so you no longer turn up in results meaning I have to spend hours now trawling the thread for what I stated occured repeatedly on thread.

Now, as much as I want to do that*, I feel that maybe linking to beastly's post referring to your ban should be sufficient.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057961529/1/#post109585424








*I do not obviously want to do this.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Are you saying that the polling company asked one question but printed the responses as if they were to a different one?

That's some accusation.

I am saying francie stayed this.
“60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.”
I am saying francie changed the question not the pollsters. But maybe you can check has francie reworded to question and context while you’re searching for the other stuff.

Dytalus

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the energy to go check but I will be surprised if you are telling 60% of unionist want a border in the Irish Sea. I think there must me more to that question than you are stating. As for you other 3 stats there is nothing there surprised me. Is this the same poll that quotes even less satisfaction in Michelle than Arlene ?

60% of protestants. Which is a frankly ridiculous line to split a poll down, but the sectarian divide is fairly ingrained in NI so perhaps it makes sense. Still, I'd imagine not all protestants are staunch unionists, and not all catholics are staunch nationalists. Probably a great deal of each group just....don't care a huge amount and have other priorities.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Personally I think that at the moment, ahead of any proper debate that 62% is about spot on, give or take a few percent.

Take the Same Sex issue and ahead of a proper debate on the issue in 2005, only a slim majority (51%) said they would pass the legislation. In the end after the information was presented and debated it passed with a majority of 62% in favour. That 62% has been characterised as an overwhelming victory for the proposal.

So if that is the starting number, I'd be more than happy with that.

Sure, except the figures are moving in the 'wrong' direction for you.
As the issue is discussed more, support evaporates.

It is hilarious to equate unification with same sex marriage though.

Support for unification is built on the softest of foundations. The most recent polling results demonstrate the phenomenon.

If it was a gambling man and the poll was carried out tomorrow, I'd put support in the low 30s, maybe even less.

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

You will find you are now doing what I was banned for. But I would suggest you follow that thread though and open the other link and you will see where cmod confirmed that I was accused in the wrong for 2 out of the 3 things I was banned for. You should also read the detail on the one that was upheld. I can say no more - even though clearly you can.

I am not. I physically cannot search for your posts. Beastly however referred to your unwillingness to respond to posters asking you for backup to your assertions.

I accused you of doing this repeatedly. You asked me to back it up.

I went to do that but felt that a mods assertion would be sufficient given your ban limits functionality.

I think that's pretty clear even for you.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I am not. I physically cannot search for your posts. Beastly however referred to your unwillingness to respond to posters asking you for backup to your assertions.

I accused you of doing this repeatedly. You asked me to back it up.

I went to do that but felt that a mods assertion would be sufficient given your name limits functionality.

I think that's pretty clear even for you.

Well I am only operating on my phone so struggling to find the poll Would you do me a favour and repost it and let’s check the question.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I am saying francie stayed this.
“60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.”
I am saying francie changed the question not the pollsters. But maybe you can check has francie reworded to question and context while you’re searching for the other stuff.

What?

I quoted the figures and changed nothing. Grow up and answer what is asked and stop deflecting.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

There is no point in shooting the messenger. You are doing a Bonnie

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I am not. I physically cannot search for your posts. Beastly however referred to your unwillingness to respond to posters asking you for backup to your assertions.

I accused you of doing this repeatedly. You asked me to back it up.

I went to do that but felt that a mods assertion would be sufficient given your ban limits functionality.

I think that's pretty clear even for you.

Use the report function please and don't get personal. I'm handing out bans next time. This is the second mod warning today.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Sure, except the figures are moving in the 'wrong' direction for you.
As the issue is discussed more, support evaporates.

It is hilarious to equate unification with same sex marriage though.

Support for unification is built on the softest of foundations. The most recent polling results demonstrate the phenomenon.

If it was a gambling man and the poll was carried out tomorrow, I'd put support in the low 30s, maybe even less.

At one point there were people saying that Same Sex Marriage would never happen in Ireland. Much the same to your stance on unification.
62% as a starting point is a pretty good position to be in tbh.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

At one point there were people saying that Same Sex Marriage would never happen in Ireland. Much the same to your stance on unification.
62% as a starting point is a pretty good position to be in tbh.

I think the point that Facehugger is trying to make is that if you carried out a poll on same-sex marriage in 1930s Ireland you would get maybe 1% in favour, whereas if you carried out a poll on Irish unity then, you would probably get 99% in favour.

Fast forward 90 years and the trends in public opinion are going in opposite directions on these issues.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What?

I quoted the figures and changed nothing. Grow up and answer what is asked and stop deflecting.

I found the poll but cannot find the stat about 60% of unionists want a border in the Irish Sea. Just help me ant post the question in full and stat. ?
I did notice while I was searching that you missed the below bit when you were skating Arlene support and saying dup were out of touch with their voters. So just to help you here it is
“Just 13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent.”

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

At one point there were people saying that Same Sex Marriage would never happen in Ireland. Much the same to your stance on unification.
62% as a starting point is a pretty good position to be in tbh.

62 isn't the starting point.

The starting point was 90% about 20 years ago.

62 is an intermediate step on the way to rejection.

You don't have to be a weather man to know what way the wind blows.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I found the poll but cannot find the stat about 60% of unionists want a border in the Irish Sea. Just help me ant post the question in full and stat. ?
I did notice while I was searching that you missed the below bit when you were skating Arlene support and saying dup were out of touch with their voters. So just to help you here it is
“Just 13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way Sinn Féin’s Northern leader Michelle O’Neill is doing her job, with 61 per cent dissatisfied. A large majority – 60 per cent – of voters believe that Sinn Féin MPs should take their seats at Westminster. Among voters from a Catholic background, the figure rises to 64 per cent.”

Michelle O' Neill's result has already been discussed and commented on by me here. I missed nothing.

And NOBODY said 60% of Unionists want a border in the Irish Sea. Read the post.

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Well I am only operating on my phone so struggling to find the poll Would you do me a favour and repost it and let’s check the question.

Absolutely not.

What I said earlier, that you requested evidence for, has nothing to do with the poll.

I'm moving on.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

62 isn't the starting point.

The starting point was 90% about 20 years ago.

62 is an intermediate step on the way to rejection.



You don't have to be a weather man to know what way the wind blows.

Just a quick look for previous polls shows the weather man isn't doing his research and is using the old finger in the wind method.

A Red C/Sunday Times poll in 2010 found that 57% are in favour of a united Ireland, 22% say they are opposed, while 21% are undecided

In December 2016 RTE's Claire Byrne Live/ Amárach Research panel asked 'Is it time for a united Ireland?' Forty-six percent of those asked said yes while 32% said no and 22% said that they didn't know,. Support was highest among those aged 25–34 with 54% saying yes.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So to avoid addressing the issues these figures raise, you pretend there is something in there, that clearly in black and white isn't there. (i.e. I TOLD YOU, 60% of Unionists want a border in the Irish Sea....WHERE does it say that???) and you also try to divert to 'look over there at SF'.

:rolleyes::rolleyes: Pointless tbh.

Your belief in a UI is fine but you admit yourself now isn't the right time-you possibly need to admit to yourself that not everyone is as interested in this happening right now as you and unless there were obvious advantages to a UI as opposed to the present situation people won't be interested.