Border Poll discussion

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your belief in a UI is fine but you admit yourself now isn't the right time-you possibly need to admit to yourself that not everyone is as interested in this happening right now as you and unless there were obvious advantages to a UI as opposed to the present situation people won't be interested.

So you're saying that those of us in favour should not bother because others may not be in favour?

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just a quick look for previous polls shows the weather man isn't doing his research and is using the old finger in the wind method.

So you think support dropped between 2010 and 2016, and has now risen?

Riiight.

The trend is downward. It would be interesting to examine the reasons behind this. I would suspect as the country has become less insular, the older Roman Catholic, nationalist notions have become less prevalent.

Perhaps the same sex referendum is a pointer, just not in the way you thought.

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

So you think support dropped between 2010 and 2016, and has now risen?

Riiight.

The trend is downward. It would be interesting to examine the reasons behind this. I would suspect as the country has become less insular, the older Roman Catholic, nationalist notions have become less prevalent.

Perhaps the same sex referendum is a pointer, just not in the way you thought.

Again, you seem to have difficulty in looking at the questions asked.

2016 is asking about 'A UI NOW' the other is a general question.
The purpose of posting them was to counter your suggestion that the trend is 'down'.

I would say, that support is fairly consistent within the margins for error.

There seems to be the same consistent fall off in support for an immediate border poll, if we are at crisis points. i.e. After the Brexit result and now as actual Brexit looms.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So you're saying that those of us in favour should not bother because others may not be in favour?

I'm saying it's not as important to everyone as it is to some-i think it would benefit the whole of the island of Ireland but there are a lot of people unconvinced who would have to be persuaded it was the best for all.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm saying it's not as important to everyone as it is to some-i think it would benefit the whole of the island of Ireland but there are a lot of people unconvinced who would have to be persuaded it was the best for all.

That is why you hold referendums and debates about the issues. To find out what people want.
Seems to me the motion is across the line by 12% South of the border and 18% of the don't know vote is required in the north.

That's a lot of people already convinced to be honest.

ancapailldorcha

Uncivil post deleted.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is why you hold referendums and debates about the issues. To find out what people want.
Seems to me the motion is across the line by 12% South of the border and 18% of the don't know vote is required in the north.

That's a lot of people already convinced to be honest.

I wouldn't argue with you as you've obviously looked into it in depth-i would say in the event of a no deal brexit a UI would definitely be on the agenda-but that would also cause untold damage to all and the EU may not be willing to help towards a UI if they're already helping after the fallout from Brexit.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wouldn't argue with you as you've obviously looked into it in depth-i would say in the event of a no deal brexit a UI would definitely be on the agenda-but that would also cause untold damage to all and the EU may not be willing to help towards a UI if they're already helping after the fallout from Brexit.

Untold damage meaning something you just made up?

Why wouldn't the EU help a member state.

I'd suggest you look into who Michel Barnier is and his role in the GFA.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

72% of Protestants, think Theresa May is running the country badly.
52% of Protestants think the DUP are doing a bad job.
57% of Protestants think Arlene is doing a bad job.
60% want a Border on the Irish Sea and significantly only 21% disagree with that.

That is hugely different to the 'Union is strong in NI' narrative we get from you and unionist parties.

What do you think these voters will do if Brexit does indeed bring what is predicated it will? Have the DUP put everything in the pot on a huge bet that Brexit will bring milk and honey for northern Ireland?

Firstly, hands up, I apologise, I read your post wrong. I see now that you only specified 'protestant' on the first three stats and didn't specify who the forth stat referred to.
So I will take it you are suggesting 60% of the NI population (or is it all ireland) want a Border on the Irish Sea and only 21% disagree with that. My point still stands that i do not believe this is the current position. I can't find the stat but if it exists I imagine you 'forgot' to say that this is if there was a choice between Irish border and Irish sea border - An entirely different thing than saying 60% want a Border on the Irish Sea (full stop)

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Firstly, hands up, I apologise, I read your post wrong. I see now that you only specified 'protestant' on the first three stats and didn't specify who the forth stat referred to.
So I will take it you are suggesting 60% of the NI population (or is it all ireland) want a Border on the Irish Sea and only 21% disagree with that. My point still stands that i do not believe this is the current position. I can't find the stat but if it exists I imagine you 'forgot' to say that this is if there was a choice between Irish border and Irish sea border - An entirely different thing than saying 60% want a Border on the Irish Sea (full stop)

Would you go look at the poll?

Then comment on it.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Untold damage meaning something you just made up?

Why wouldn't the EU help a member state.

I'd suggest you look into who Michel Barnier is and his role in the GFA.

I was referring to untold damage caused by a hard brexit and I didn't suggest the EU wouldn't help Ireland,they may not be help with both(help after hard brexit AND a UI)immediately

janfebmar

The EU (or European Empire as some call it) is expecting Ireland to help them out now, we are now net payers in to EU funds ie we pay in more than we get out.

As someone else pointed out, the real gobsmacking result from the poll is that only 62% in the South would vote for a united Ireland. If unionists are feeling betrayed by the lack of support from the rest of the UK, surely nationalists must also be feeling the same from the South? And if it was pointed out to voters in the Republic income tax would rise, vat would rise, water charges would rise, property tax would rise, all the taxes would rise and benefits fall, how many then would vote for the problems of a United Ireland?

FrancieBrady

janfebmar wrote: »

The EU (or European Empire as some call it) is expecting Ireland to help them out now, we are now net payers in to EU funds ie we pay in more than we get out.

As someone else pointed out, the real gobsmacking result from the poll is that only 62% in the South would vote for a united Ireland. If unionists are feeling betrayed by the lack of support from the rest of the UK, surely nationalists must also be feeling the same from the South? And if it was pointed out to voters in the Republic income tax would rise, vat would rise, water charges would rise, property tax would rise, all the taxes would rise and benefits fall, how many then would vote for the problems of a United Ireland?

62% is 12% more than is needed.
Yet you manage to make it a negative. I think you are going to have to get a better PR slant than that for an anti UI campaign.

Dytalus

janfebmar wrote: »

The EU (or European Empire as some call it) is expecting Ireland to help them out now, we are now net payers in to EU funds ie we pay in more than we get out.

I...don't see what relevance this has to the topic. Also "European Empire", really? I've never heard it referred to as such - usually some combination involving "Federal" is used. And yes, it does 'expect' (a really misleading choice of words) us to 'help them out' (also a really misleading choice of words) because our economy is now powerful enough to contribute. We've only been contributors since 2016, compared to decades of being net receivers. Seems only fair, really, that we pay our share.

vat would rise?

VAT is an EU related tax. There'd be no reason for the government to raise it to pay for any costs of reunification. The money raised from VAT goes into the EU budget, or the vast majority of it anyway.

blanch152

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/08/give-us-the-softest-brexit-and-a-plague-on-all-your-houses-in-northern-ireland-the-gap-between-people-and-politicians-is-wider-than-ever-latest-north-south-poll/

Slugger O'Toole give their view on the poll.

A plague on both your houses seems to be the conclusion in respect of the Northern population view of SF and the DUP.

"Only 16% believe Arlene Foster is doing a good job and 20%, DUP MPs at Westminster. Michelle O’Neill scores 13%. A resounding 79% believe the Assembly should be re-instated in spite of party differences and 60% support Sinn Fein taking their seats ( 40% are either opposed or don’t know)"

When I saw the reports and the posts on here originally , I thought it was about the DUP being rejected. As more of the details have become clear (or the spin fails), the truth of the rejection of both sectarian parties becomes clearer. The blame is being shared. Hardly anybody thinks Foster is doing a good job, and less think so of O'Neill. It is possible to try and spin O'Neill's inexperience, but Foster isn't that more experienced, and anyway 13% approval is about as low as any politician could ever go.

The sooner we are rid of both of them, the better.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/08/give-us-the-softest-brexit-and-a-plague-on-all-your-houses-in-northern-ireland-the-gap-between-people-and-politicians-is-wider-than-ever-latest-north-south-poll/

Slugger O'Toole give their view on the poll.

A plague on both your houses seems to be the conclusion in respect of the Northern population view of SF and the DUP.

"Only 16% believe Arlene Foster is doing a good job and 20%, DUP MPs at Westminster. Michelle O’Neill scores 13%. A resounding 79% believe the Assembly should be re-instated in spite of party differences and 60% support Sinn Fein taking their seats ( 40% are either opposed or don’t know)"

When I saw the reports and the posts on here originally , I thought it was about the DUP being rejected. As more of the details have become clear (or the spin fails), the truth of the rejection of both sectarian parties becomes clearer. The blame is being shared. Hardly anybody thinks Foster is doing a good job, and less think so of O'Neill. It is possible to try and spin O'Neill's inexperience, but Foster isn't that more experienced, and anyway 13% approval is about as low as any politician could ever go.

The sooner we are rid of both of them, the better.

The DUP's position on Brexit has been roundly rejected in the poll. SF's position has been endorsed (special status) as far as I can see.
Granted O'Neill as a leader who has no executive to work in, has done poorly.

This isn't a general election or an executive election. It is a poll on opinions around Brexit and the effects it is having on thoughts about the future of northern Ireland. And it seems to me that the republican/nationalist (still in the EU) direction is the one most people want to go in.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP's position on Brexit has been roundly rejected in the poll. SF's position has been endorsed (special status) as far as I can see.
Granted O'Neill as a leader who has no executive to work in, has done poorly.

This isn't a general election or an executive election. It is a poll on opinions around Brexit and the effects it is having on thoughts about the future of northern Ireland. And it seems to me that the republican/nationalist (still in the EU) direction is the one most people want to go in.

I actually think not a lot has changed since the referendum in the North.

The DUP position on a hard Brexit has been rejected but still retains the support of around 30% of the electorate, more or less in line with their support.

The SF position on a united Ireland has also been rejected, but still retains the support of around 30% of the electorate, more or less in line with their support.

This is reflected in the approval ratings of both leaders. Anyone who rejects either of those is seeing things through either green or orange-tinted glasses.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/08/give-us-the-softest-brexit-and-a-plague-on-all-your-houses-in-northern-ireland-the-gap-between-people-and-politicians-is-wider-than-ever-latest-north-south-poll/

Slugger O'Toole give their view on the poll.

A plague on both your houses seems to be the conclusion in respect of the Northern population view of SF and the DUP.

"Only 16% believe Arlene Foster is doing a good job and 20%, DUP MPs at Westminster. Michelle O’Neill scores 13%. A resounding 79% believe the Assembly should be re-instated in spite of party differences and 60% support Sinn Fein taking their seats ( 40% are either opposed or don’t know)"

When I saw the reports and the posts on here originally , I thought it was about the DUP being rejected. As more of the details have become clear (or the spin fails), the truth of the rejection of both sectarian parties becomes clearer. The blame is being shared. Hardly anybody thinks Foster is doing a good job, and less think so of O'Neill. It is possible to try and spin O'Neill's inexperience, but Foster isn't that more experienced, and anyway 13% approval is about as low as any politician could ever go.

The sooner we are rid of both of them, the better.

Slugger O'Toole for a source?

I could be wrong, and will hold my hand up if so, but has this site now been dismissed as a reputable site by yourself on here before?

I'm maybe confusing you with someone else, so apologies if so.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I actually think not a lot has changed since the referendum in the North.

The DUP position on a hard Brexit has been rejected but still retains the support of around 30% of the electorate, more or less in line with their support.

The SF position on a united Ireland has also been rejected, but still retains the support of around 30% of the electorate, more or less in line with their support.

This is reflected in the approval ratings of both leaders. Anyone who rejects either of those is seeing things through either green or orange-tinted glasses.

'Now' you ignore the word now. There is nervousness about having it now and I am one of those people. Don't mistake that answer for rejection though.

It's quite clear north and south that Brexit is the game changer. It hastens divergence from the Union which the GFA began. And partition is about to needlessly cost the south dear

Never in my life time have I seen a more intense focus on this subject. And I am closer to 100 than I am to my birth.

BonnieSituation

janfebmar wrote: »

The EU (or European Empire as some call it) is expecting Ireland to help them out now, we are now net payers in to EU funds ie we pay in more than we get out.

As someone else pointed out, the real gobsmacking result from the poll is that only 62% in the South would vote for a united Ireland. If unionists are feeling betrayed by the lack of support from the rest of the UK, surely nationalists must also be feeling the same from the South? And if it was pointed out to voters in the Republic income tax would rise, vat would rise, water charges would rise, property tax would rise, all the taxes would rise and benefits fall, how many then would vote for the problems of a United Ireland?

It says it all blanch that you thanked that post given they more or less, word-for-word, quote your bizarre 62% assertion. And given the poster in question has been on a bit of a Brexiteer rampage over on the Brexit thread, it kind of sums up the shaky confidence on which you place your assertions.

blanch152

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Slugger O'Toole for a source?

I could be wrong, and will hold my hand up if so, but has this site now been dismissed as a reputable site by yourself on here before?

I'm maybe confusing you with someone else, so apologies if so.

Nope, have quoted it before.

Has an excellent article on the KRB lot who funded the studies that said unification cost nothing. Also excellent articles on the Adams brothers and also Mairia Cahill.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Now' you ignore the word now. There is nervousness about having it now and I am one of those people. Don't mistake that answer for rejection though.

It's quite clear north and south that Brexit is the game changer. It hastens divergence from the Union which the GFA began. And partition is about to needlessly cost the south dear

Never in my life time have I seen a more intense focus on this subject. And I am closer to 100 than I am to my birth.

I didn't mention you though, I was talking about the SF position. I am aware that you are nervous about having it now, but that is not the SF position who are calling for one every second day on the media and in the Dail. The opinion poll rejects that SF position as strongly as it rejects the DUP position on Brexit.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It says it all blanch that you thanked that post given they more or less, word-for-word, quote your bizarre 62% assertion. And given the poster in question has been on a bit of a Brexiteer rampage over on the Brexit thread, it kind of sums up the shaky confidence on which you place your assertions.

I don't understand what you are trying to say here. What issue do you have with the 62%?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/08/give-us-the-softest-brexit-and-a-plague-on-all-your-houses-in-northern-ireland-the-gap-between-people-and-politicians-is-wider-than-ever-latest-north-south-poll/

Slugger O'Toole give their view on the poll.

A plague on both your houses seems to be the conclusion in respect of the Northern population view of SF and the DUP.

"Only 16% believe Arlene Foster is doing a good job and 20%, DUP MPs at Westminster. Michelle O’Neill scores 13%. A resounding 79% believe the Assembly should be re-instated in spite of party differences and 60% support Sinn Fein taking their seats ( 40% are either opposed or don’t know)"

When I saw the reports and the posts on here originally , I thought it was about the DUP being rejected. As more of the details have become clear (or the spin fails), the truth of the rejection of both sectarian parties becomes clearer. The blame is being shared. Hardly anybody thinks Foster is doing a good job, and less think so of O'Neill. It is possible to try and spin O'Neill's inexperience, but Foster isn't that more experienced, and anyway 13% approval is about as low as any politician could ever go.

The sooner we are rid of both of them, the better.

Would you like to put the slugger quotes in quotation marks so there's no confusion, or is that all yours?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't understand what you are trying to say here. What issue do you have with the 62%?

Oh my. I'm criticising your approval of a post. A post in which they quite you almost verbatim. A post that has been criticised and commented upon all afternoon.

Is there something unclear here?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I didn't mention you though, I was talking about the SF position. I am aware that you are nervous about having it now, but that is not the SF position who are calling for one every second day on the media and in the Dail. The opinion poll rejects that SF position as strongly as it rejects the DUP position on Brexit.

You just said the 32% was broadly in line with SF support and now you are saying SF's position on a UI poll now has been rejected?
They have held their support for that. No surprise there.

We know from previous polls that that figure changes dramatically if Brexit or a hard Brexit occurs. Some of the No to a poll now and the undecided's become Yes vores.

I am not seeing any shocks here.

johnnyskeleton

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Oh my. I'm criticising your approval of a post. A post in which they quite you almost verbatim. A post that has been criticised and commented upon all afternoon.

Is there something unclear here?

Mod note:

Let's not go down this road. People can thank whatever posts they like, whether they agree with the comments or not. Crucially, if someone made a comment, don't try to goad someone else into discussing it.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You just said the 32% was broadly in line with SF support and now you are saying SF's position on a UI poll now has been rejected?
They have held their support for that. No surprise there.

We know from previous polls that that figure changes dramatically if Brexit or a hard Brexit occurs. Some of the No to a poll now and the undecided's become Yes vores.

I am not seeing any shocks here.

And the percentage who support the DUP position on Brexit is also broadly in line with their support, yet this thread has pages about them being rejected (which I agree with, by the way).

Both parties' positions have been rejected by everyone other than their core vote.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

And the percentage who support the DUP position on Brexit is also broadly in line with their support, yet this thread has pages about them being rejected (which I agree with, by the way).

Both parties' positions have been rejected by everyone other than their core vote.

When you have almost 25% of the electorate undecided, it is churlish and self serving to describe the motion as 'rejected'.
It is just another poll, don't get your hopes up too much. The real game changer hasn't happened yet.

RobMc59

Here's a heartwarming story about how human kindness sometimes transends divided communities and I believe it's relevant to border issues.
https://www.derrynow.com/features/derry-city-cemetery-series-soldier-fountain-saved-group-1916-rebels/270277