Border Poll discussion

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

I suggest your data is out of date.

It doesn’t really matter though, does it. The point is valid.

circadian

Let's just say a border poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new Ireland. Aegir, downcow et al. How would you feel then? Would you still be against this new Ireland?

cgcsb

Aegir wrote: »

So an Irish passport holder in the UK is not foreign, but a British passport holder in Ireland is??

So called Northern Ireland, a territory that the UK has annexed in a Crimea style to be exact. The natives are not foreigners, the colonists (most of them) self-identify as foreign.

cgcsb

circadian wrote: »

Let's just say a border poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new Ireland. Aegir, downcow et al. How would you feel then? Would you still be against this new Ireland?

Fifth columnists are never 'happy' per say.

cgcsb

cgcsb wrote: »

So called Northern Ireland, a territory that the UK has annexed in a Crimea style to be exact. The natives are not foreigners, the colonists (most of them) self-identify as foreign.

that's a perfect example of why a united Ireland is further away than people think.

It isn't just loyalists who need an attitude change.

circadian

circadian wrote: »

Let's just say a border poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new Ireland. Aegir, downcow et al. How would you feel then? Would you still be against this new Ireland?

why ask me? other being an Irish tax payer, I have no skin in the game.

An Ciarraioch

Rather depressing that neither unionist party saw fit to attend the All-Island Civic Dialogue on Brexit today - after all, this was primarily convened to discuss the social and economic impact of Brexit in the island, rather than discussing political matters.

downcow

circadian wrote: »

Let's just say a border poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new Ireland. Aegir, downcow et al. How would you feel then? Would you still be against this new Ireland?

Its such an alien idea to me. There is no way i could embrace it - Could my grandchilden? maybe

I don't want appear difficult but its a bit like if Ireland hold poll to rejoin UK and poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new UK. How would you feel then? Would you be against this new UK?

Its a very small example but the history of Unifying in Ireland is not good eg Rugby team

briany

downcow wrote: »

Its such an alien idea to me. There is no way i could embrace it - Could my grandchilden? maybe

I don't want appear difficult but its a bit like if Ireland hold poll to rejoin UK and poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new UK. How would you feel then? Would you be against this new UK?

Its a very small example but the history of Unifying in Ireland is not good eg Rugby team

Well, put it this way, I wouldn't be prepared to watch the world burn before seeing Ireland rejoin the UK. Certainly if it was a new UK based on mutual political/cultural respect between the constituent countries, and it offered considerable economic benefits. However, by the time the former might have been true, Ireland's economy was doing well enough on its own.

I think that even if the aforementioned conditions existed to tempt certain Unionists into a United Ireland, they'd still reject it. They would literally rather watch the world burn than be a part of a United Ireland, which is sad.

James Brown

downcow wrote: »

Its such an alien idea to me. There is no way i could embrace it - Could my grandchilden? maybe

I don't want appear difficult but its a bit like if Ireland hold poll to rejoin UK and poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new UK. How would you feel then? Would you be against this new UK?

Its a very small example but the history of Unifying in Ireland is not good eg Rugby team

People keep using this 'rejoin'. We never 'joined'.
Partition happened in your Great Grandparents time and you took to it, so stands to reason a reversal would be as welcome by the next generation.

downcow

Matt Barrett wrote: »

People keep using this 'rejoin'. We never 'joined'.
Partition happened in your Great Grandparents time and you took to it, so stands to reason a reversal would be as welcome by the next generation.

Dont really understand this. Would you be annoyed if i talked about NI rejoining Ireland - same thing i think.
And i am not sure what you mean about us 'taking to it' ? we wanted it so obviously we would take to it but it seems many of those who didn't want it have passed that down 4 generations, hence my comment that I am unsure whether my grandchildren would accept it - i guess some of them would reluctantly and others would not. Would you agree?

fly_agaric

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Agreed, but it's not a new union between British colonists loyal to Britain and possibly the Dutch and the rest of Ireland. It's the unification of Ireland. That said of course there needs to be big changes but including anything British would be plain silly considering moving away from Britain is the whole point.

I'd agree, but I think trying to hang onto the current symbols (tricolour, Amhrán na bhFiann) which as you can see from the thread many are very attached to would be a mistake in a UI context.
The majority are very happy with our symbols so all the "haters" can go f- themselves is not really a good start for building a new state.

I think it was posted earlier that the abortion referendum was a contentious issue decided by a simple majority. I find the example a bit jarring. Such referenda are how "we" have agreed to make decisions on the constitution of the state. All that type of thing (accepting a majority decision from a vote) is based on the axiom of as many people as possible supporting the idea of the state itself in the first place! It is a small thing but part of that is built on as many as possible, not just a simple majority, liking (or at the very least not hating) the symbols of their state...

jm08

This video from the Guardian which shows varying views on the border. Some varying views from those of a unionist background - two women (from 12.4 if you don't want to watch the full video) - one young, one middle aged from Enniskillen give opposing views on the border. The young girl wants a United Ireland, the other woman (ex-army) said she wants a hard border and everything back to what it was 40 years ago! Getting rid of a flag or anthem isn't going to do it for her. Said she would get into uniform again if there was to be a United Ireland!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/feb/13/brexit-breakdown-fear-and-anger-on-the-irish-border-video

FrancieBrady

jm08 wrote: »

This video from the Guardian which shows varying views on the border. Some varying views from those of a unionist background - two women (from 12.4 if you don't want to watch the full video) - one young, one middle aged from Enniskillen give opposing views on the border. The young girl wants a United Ireland, the other woman (ex-army) said she wants a hard border and everything back to what it was 40 years ago! Getting rid of a flag or anthem isn't going to do it for her. Said she would get into uniform again if there was to be a United Ireland!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/feb/13/brexit-breakdown-fear-and-anger-on-the-irish-border-video

I seen that vid and actually know 3 or 4 of the people interviewed. The lady lusting after a nirvana that never really existed would not be representative. and to a large extent it is bluster, the exact same chat was heard around the AIA, The GFA, Marches and flags, she is the unionist equivalent of the fabled and equally rare 'barstool republican' and both have been performing exclusively for cameras only for years. That generation is dying out and just as young nationalists have changed and moderated so to have young unionists.

Contrary to the idea that the history of 'unifying in Ireland' has failed, it has actually worked extremely well. North South bodies now co-operate and pool resources in 150 areas.
Take the shouting and roaring out of it and 'unification' actually has a track record of being easy and more to the point, advantageous.

downcow, since Northern Ireland's vote means little to you in the case of Brexit, I assume you'd be happy with a united Ireland if England voted for it?

All my English friends would vote for that. Democracy.

circadian

downcow wrote: »

Its such an alien idea to me. There is no way i could embrace it - Could my grandchilden? maybe

I don't want appear difficult but its a bit like if Ireland hold poll to rejoin UK and poll passes. All the details are ironed out, everyone is included and most political leaders agree on a way forward that benefits all in this new UK. How would you feel then? Would you be against this new UK?

Its a very small example but the history of Unifying in Ireland is not good eg Rugby team

The Rugby team has been pretty successful, no?

I'm a northerner myself but if the shoe was on the other foot and for some reason Ireland joining the UK would secure my way of life, put food on the table and provide a stable future for my children versus an unknown uncertain future then I'd be all for it. I'm not an idealogue who is unbending to new ideas.

Yes, Ireland joining the UK is alien to me but if there are clear benefits now and in the future then I'd imagine I'd at the very least put a lot of consideration into supporting it. I certainly wouldn't write it off for them sake of holding onto an ideology that may or may not be relevant any more.

blanch152

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/liam-weeks-are-we-really-united-about-our-lost-fourth-green-field-37823456.html


A more realistic take on a united Ireland.

"While it sounds great to sing of an undefined and romantic united Ireland after a few drinks, the reality is that so many in this part of the island have a disconnect with Northern Ireland."

One of the more interesting points made was the following:

"The most obvious is how we would pay for the €11bn annual subvention Northern Ireland gets from the UK. In a study last year, Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth said that taking on this bill would permanently reduce our standard of living by 15pc."


From what I could find, this statement seems to come from the following paper to the Dublin Economics Workshop

http://dublineconomics.com/papers/8502.pdf

Unlike the previous calculations sponsored by groups linked to Friends of Sinn Fein, John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth are respected Irish economists with an understanding of this economy. If they are really saying that unification would reduce living standards by 15%, then it should be listened to.

cgcsb

jm08 wrote: »

This video from the Guardian which shows varying views on the border. Some varying views from those of a unionist background - two women (from 12.4 if you don't want to watch the full video) - one young, one middle aged from Enniskillen give opposing views on the border. The young girl wants a United Ireland, the other woman (ex-army) said she wants a hard border and everything back to what it was 40 years ago! Getting rid of a flag or anthem isn't going to do it for her. Said she would get into uniform again if there was to be a United Ireland!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/feb/13/brexit-breakdown-fear-and-anger-on-the-irish-border-video

Grand, let her put her uniform on. she can sit in the pub and talk smack with the oul lads. See how far she gets in most catholic Fermanagh.

cgcsb

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/liam-weeks-are-we-really-united-about-our-lost-fourth-green-field-37823456.html

One of the more interesting points made was the following:

"The most obvious is how we would pay for the €11bn annual subvention Northern Ireland gets from the UK. In a study last year, Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth said that taking on this bill would permanently reduce our standard of living by 15pc."


From what I could find, this statement seems to come from the following paper to the Dublin Economics Workshop

http://dublineconomics.com/papers/8502.pdf

Unlike the previous calculations sponsored by groups linked to Friends of Sinn Fein, John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth are respected Irish economists with an understanding of this economy. If they are really saying that unification would reduce living standards by 15%, then it should be listened to.

This has been rubbished multiple times, even by the IMF, who are not friends of SF. The Irish civil service also has produced a report on same. The budget would be balanced a lot quicker than Germany's post unification budget.

nc6000

downcow wrote: »

Its a very small example but the history of Unifying in Ireland is not good eg Rugby team

Why is the Irish Rugby team an example of this?

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/liam-weeks-are-we-really-united-about-our-lost-fourth-green-field-37823456.html


A more realistic take on a united Ireland.

"While it sounds great to sing of an undefined and romantic united Ireland after a few drinks, the reality is that so many in this part of the island have a disconnect with Northern Ireland."

One of the more interesting points made was the following:

"The most obvious is how we would pay for the €11bn annual subvention Northern Ireland gets from the UK. In a study last year, Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth said that taking on this bill would permanently reduce our standard of living by 15pc."


From what I could find, this statement seems to come from the following paper to the Dublin Economics Workshop

http://dublineconomics.com/papers/8502.pdf

Unlike the previous calculations sponsored by groups linked to Friends of Sinn Fein, John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth are respected Irish economists with an understanding of this economy. If they are really saying that unification would reduce living standards by 15%, then it should be listened to.

While the cost of unification is an open question, a figure of 11bn is hardily credible as this includes NI's notional share of the cost of defence projects such as the UK's carrier fleet and their Nuclear deterrent. Assuming a United Ireland will not try to replicate Trident and will not require a carrier fleet, then one assumes that this is a cost that will not transfer over.

Correct me if I am wrong, but that report outlines the impact if Ireland were to take on NI and simply continue running it as the British have without making any atempt to reform the NI economey and bring it into line with the rest of the country. The main point of the report being that this would be a terrible idea and as such significant resources and planning need to be dedicated to overhauling NI to make unification work.

briany

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/liam-weeks-are-we-really-united-about-our-lost-fourth-green-field-37823456.html


A more realistic take on a united Ireland.

"While it sounds great to sing of an undefined and romantic united Ireland after a few drinks, the reality is that so many in this part of the island have a disconnect with Northern Ireland."

One of the more interesting points made was the following:

"The most obvious is how we would pay for the €11bn annual subvention Northern Ireland gets from the UK. In a study last year, Professors John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth said that taking on this bill would permanently reduce our standard of living by 15pc."


From what I could find, this statement seems to come from the following paper to the Dublin Economics Workshop

http://dublineconomics.com/papers/8502.pdf

Unlike the previous calculations sponsored by groups linked to Friends of Sinn Fein, John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth are respected Irish economists with an understanding of this economy. If they are really saying that unification would reduce living standards by 15%, then it should be listened to.

In a way, I could see a UI becoming a bit like Ireland's Brexit. It's a political issue with a lot of emotion around it and where the valid concerns of experts becomes lost amid nationalist, populist fervour.

And just like Brexiteers might say "I'm willing to take the hit if it means being out of the EU.", Irish nationalists might express the same kind of sentiment about a UI.

This is not to say that I'm against a UI at all, but yes it is important for the country to go into the thing with eyes wide open and have none of the sloganeering bluster that went into the Brexit referendum. Very thorough, frank conversations should be had.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

In a way, I could see a UI becoming a bit like Ireland's Brexit. It's a political issue with a lot of emotion around it and where the valid concerns of experts becomes lost amid nationalist, populist fervour.

And just like Brexiteers might say "I'm willing to take the hit if it means being out of the EU.", Irish nationalists might express the same kind of sentiment about a UI.

This is not to say that I'm against a UI at all, but yes it is important for the country to go into the thing with eyes wide open and have none of the sloganeering bluster that went into the Brexit referendum. Very thorough, frank conversations should be had.

I will freely admit that the economic side of unification is not the priority for me. I am not pro unification because I think it will put a few extra euros in my pocket, nor would the loss of a few euros from my pocket cause me to change my mind.

For what it's worth, I believe that unification has a good posibility of being a long term net positive economically for Ireland, but that is not the basis of my support for it.

Unlike the Brexiteers who claimed that Brexit would be easy and would have noting but positives, I am quite happy to admit that Unification will be dificult, it will have costs and risks, and will require a lot of planning, hard work and investment to make it work. But I do think that it can work and that it is the right thing to do in the long term.

If Ireland was a united country, I seriously doubt that a good economic arguement could be made that partition would be better for the island economically.

blanch152

Imreoir2 wrote: »

While the cost of unification is an open question, a figure of 11bn is hardily credible as this includes NI's notional share of the cost of defence projects such as the UK's carrier fleet and their Nuclear deterrent. Assuming a United Ireland will not try to replicate Trident and will not require a carrier fleet, then one assumes that this is a cost that will not transfer over.

Correct me if I am wrong, but that report outlines the impact if Ireland were to take on NI and simply continue running it as the British have without making any atempt to reform the NI economey and bring it into line with the rest of the country. The main point of the report being that this would be a terrible idea and as such significant resources and planning need to be dedicated to overhauling NI to make unification work.

All of the reports including that one exclude the cost of harmonising social welfare rates and public service pay.

Both of those are of such significance that the costs of unification are grossly underestimated and wipe out several times any possible saving from cost of defence projects.

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

For what it's worth, I believe that unification has a good posibility of being a long term net positive economically for Ireland, but that is not the basis of my support for it.

Unlike the Brexiteers who claimed that Brexit would be easy and would have noting but positives, I am quite happy to admit that Unification will be dificult, it will have costs and risks, and will require a lot of planning, hard work and investment to make it work. But I do think that it can work and that it is the right thing to do in the long term.

If Ireland was a united country, I seriously doubt that a good economic arguement could be made that partition would be better for the island economically.

I agree that a UI could be a successful project in the long term, but this is also what one of Brexit's leading advocates, Jacob Rees Mogg, has said about Brexit, that the actual benefits of leaving the EU may not be seen for years. By his opposition on the matter, that's not taken as an admission to inspire confidence.

So, it comes down to whether one is willing to make fairly definite sacrifices now in order to possibly reap a benefit in the future, and how you convince people it's a trade-off worth making.

blanch152

briany wrote: »

In a way, I could see a UI becoming a bit like Ireland's Brexit. It's a political issue with a lot of emotion around it and where the valid concerns of experts becomes lost amid nationalist, populist fervour.

And just like Brexiteers might say "I'm willing to take the hit if it means being out of the EU.", Irish nationalists might express the same kind of sentiment about a UI.

This is not to say that I'm against a UI at all, but yes it is important for the country to go into the thing with eyes wide open and have none of the sloganeering bluster that went into the Brexit referendum. Very thorough, frank conversations should be had.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I will freely admit that the economic side of unification is not the priority for me. I am not pro unification because I think it will put a few extra euros in my pocket, nor would the loss of a few euros from my pocket cause me to change my mind.

For what it's worth, I believe that unification has a good posibility of being a long term net positive economically for Ireland, but that is not the basis of my support for it.

Unlike the Brexiteers who claimed that Brexit would be easy and would have noting but positives, I am quite happy to admit that Unification will be dificult, it will have costs and risks, and will require a lot of planning, hard work and investment to make it work. But I do think that it can work and that it is the right thing to do in the long term.

If Ireland was a united country, I seriously doubt that a good economic arguement could be made that partition would be better for the island economically.

There is a clear linkage in thinking there. Brexit is a good thing. Irish unity is a good thing. Cost and risks don't matter in either case.

Unity has the potential to be Ireland's Brexit whereby we do something on the basis of a nationalistic impulse that ignores or downplays the economic realities.

blanch152

cgcsb wrote: »

This has been rubbished multiple times, even by the IMF, who are not friends of SF. The Irish civil service also has produced a report on same. The budget would be balanced a lot quicker than Germany's post unification budget.

If you could link to those reports, that would be of great interest. I am open to correction on the basis of factual evidence.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

All of the reports including that one exclude the cost of harmonising social welfare rates and public service pay.

Both of those are of such significance that the costs of unification are grossly underestimated and wipe out several times any possible saving from cost of defence projects.

The 15% reduction of ROI GDP is based on a permanent subsidy to NI.


The other thing worth noting is that Weeks uses the last general election exit poll (Feb 2016 - prior to Brexit referendum, RHI scandal etc. etc) figures to support his claim that there is little interest in a UI in ROI.

cgcsb

Sure, no problem, here's some links from the UK and USA for example:

Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/7d5244a0-f22d-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/hard-brexit-could-cost-island-of-ireland-42-5-billion-over-seven-years-1.3689807

https://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification/report.pdf

https://senatormarkdaly.org/2018/07/23/northern-irelands-income-and-expenditure-in-a-reunification-scenario/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/16/united-ireland-brexit-irish-unification-back-on-agenda

The department has delayed their report on unification in line with the Irish government's Brexit policy, which is quite telling.
https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-costings-4144760-Jul2018/

cgcsb

blanch152 wrote: »

All of the reports including that one exclude the cost of harmonising social welfare rates and public service pay.

The NI public service would be a whole lot smaller in a UI, those of a certain age would be made redundant. Multinationals would be free to set up shop in Belfast, in comparatively dirt cheap office buildings and cherry pick dirt cheap labour off the NI public service, down goes the vast NI public service. East Germany was a more extreme version of NI, and it changed.