Connacht Team Talk Thread V - The Friend Zone

Former Former

You've got a Friend in me

Cardiff are not going to win in Galway. Third place is in the bag.

connachta

Former Former wrote: »

Cardiff are not going to win in Galway. Third place is in the bag.

Love your optimism.


2 double BP are not that unlikely either, and would bring us to the same total of 60 points!

Former Former

You've got a Friend in me

connachta wrote: »

Love your optimism.


2 double BP are not that unlikely either, and would bring us to the same total of 60 points!

If Cardiff lose in Galway with two losing BPs and get a Bp win over Ospreys, they will only be on 59. No?

connachta

Former Former wrote: »

If Cardiff lose in Galway with two losing BPs and get a Bp win over Ospreys, they will only be on 59. No?

I was talking about 4 BP (only) for us
We'd may be 4th but with a nearly sure home play-off

Bazzo

Mul, it's over

Former Former wrote: »

Cardiff are not going to win in Galway. Third place is in the bag.

Cardiff ran Munster very close for 65 minutes in Cork. Connacht fell over the line against Zebre in Italy because their kicker couldn't kick snow off a rope. As the most optimistic of Connacht fans: it's far from in the bag.

Wegians89

The Friend Zone

Don’t think there’s too much to be panicking about. There’s been a few very disappointing away preformsnces but they’ve generally been backed up with strong home wins.
Away to Edinburgh followed by home win against scarlets
Away to ospreys followed by comfortable win at home to dragons
Away to Cardiff bit of a break but a good win against cheetahs was the next game
Glasgow away followed by big win agai at ospreys.

The win was needed against zebre and they come home with the four points. They’ll park that and look forward to a huge game which will hopefilly he sold out.

Tommybojangles

Mul, it's over

Usually I'm obsessed with permutations and stats but I'm absolutely checked out on this one for some reason.
Just beat Cardiff, if we don't manage that then I'll look at the table again😂

Actually bought 3 tickets because I don't trust the lads to get them before they sell out, which they should ðŸ˜

connachta

Sorry but you may look at a bad scenario I've tested, and you would see the good conclusion as a reward

Cardff 4 points, us 1

Ospreys 9 or 10 points and Cardiff still get a BP

Not the least point away in Munster.

Edinburgh managing to get 6 in 2 games

then still you have

Ospreys 58-59
Connacht 57 (+80 at worse before taking Munster loss into account)
Cardiff 57 ( + 62 in the end at best, + 7 vs us -1 vs Ospreys)
Edinburgh 57 ( + 40 at best before taking Ulster win into account)


So, it would need we fall by 18 points in Thomond, 1 week after their Champions Cup semi and before their Pro14 final phases. Doubt they'll give us such a beating.
So 4th it'd be

Then to be the "worst" 4th, we'd have to have a scenario where Embra win vs Ulster + our loss vs Munster close a 40 points difference. Could happen but unlikely too.
So home European play-off vs Edinbourg it'd be

Citizenpain

connachta wrote: »

Projection A clear, beat Cardiff 3rd
Projection B 2 BP, likely Home play-off
Projection B' 1 BP over 2 games Play-off decided home or away on goal-average, slightly favourable even with 2 losses vs 1 for Embra
Projection C No point at all. Ospreys maybe 4th, no euro play-off, would be deserved

Don’t we need to come 2nd for a home playoff ? Which we cannot

Bazzo

Mul, it's over

Citizenpain wrote: »

Don’t we need to come 2nd for a home playoff ? Which we cannot

He's talking about a playoff for the 7th Heineken cup spot.

Citizenpain

Bazzo wrote: »

He's talking about a playoff for the 7th Heineken cup spot.

Ahhh , when would that be? Thinking about when work in pitch might start

stephen_n

Bazzo wrote: »

Cardiff ran Munster very close for 65 minutes in Cork. Connacht fell over the line against Zebre in Italy because their kicker couldn't kick snow off a rope. As the most optimistic of Connacht fans: it's far from in the bag.

That was more to do with Munsters lack of accuracy in the first half though. Cardiff were quite poor at times and gave possession away far too easily. Mind you so did Connacht yesterday.

salmocab

connachta wrote: »

Assuming Ospreys vs Blues doesn't end in a nightmare 5-2 split for Neath-Swansea (we could be 5th)
Scenario B and B' are based on Edinburgh winning 5 vs Ulster and 1 away vs Glasgow who'll have the 1st place to play for.
57 points for them in this case. Scarlets aren't a threat for us anymore.
We're on 56, One BP (TBP or LBP) may be enough to be the best 4th (home european play-off), because we have 46 goal-average advantage over Edinburgh.
Two BP (maybe against less interested Munster) should be enough.

No I meant the tables that were done with about 7 or so games to go of how you thought each team might fare, 5 points 4 points losing BP etc. interested to see how accurate they turned out to be. Not sure it was even you that did them.

MarinersBlues

Mul, it's over

salmocab wrote: »

Was it you that did the tables with how you thought the teams Connacht were up against for qualification would get on with each game? How close were the predictions so far? They were done from a good while ago I think

That was me.
First post here in November.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108720760&postcount=1004

MarinersBlues wrote: »

Conn 64
Ospreys 66
Cardiff 36

Am I over estimating Ospreys and underestimating Blues here?

Happy enough with my origional estimate of Connachts performance.

While I figured I had over-estimated Ospreys and understimated Blues
I don't think anyone could have predicted just how disastrous Osprey's season would be on and off the field.
In fairness - Cardiff look like a completely different proposition to least season.

connachta

salmocab wrote: »

No I meant the tables that were done with about 7 or so games to go of how you thought each team might fare, 5 points 4 points losing BP etc. interested to see how accurate they turned out to be. Not sure it was even you that did them.

Oh ok. We can try to find the old posts, but I've always thought best of the two 4th place, triggering HOME euro play-off, was the target.
3rd is within reach still. Cardiff will be very hard to beat. At home it's possible

salmocab

Cheers lads, I remember reading the predictions and thinking there is way too much rugby to be played for those to be any sort of indicator but I’d like to see how they broke down over time.

connachta

connachta wrote: »

My target is 21 points

I posted that on the 6th of January (after Munster game). Connacht had 37.
2 BP in 2 games to be right (58). I think it could well happen and put us in a right position for a home Euro-play off, as said above. Of course I prefer 4 points right now, next week

Cosmo Kramer

connachta wrote: »

No. It would be enough. We'd be on 60 points, Ospreys can't reach more than 59

No, we'd only have been on about 57 or max 58 with a BP. Ospreys as you say could get to 59. Whereas now any win over Cardiff confirms 3rd place. So hanging on for the win last night was vital to avoid that scenario.

connachta

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

No, we'd only have been on about 57 or max 58 with a BP. Ospreys as you say could get to 59. Whereas now any win over Cardiff confirms 3rd place. So hanging on for the win last night was vital to avoid that scenario.

No I was awsering a question about the win.

60 is 3rd, yes


The other points I've made was 57-58 could be enough the get the "best 4th" home european play-off spot. It's slightly more likely it'd be enough than not

freyners

The Friend Zone

I find how we've handled the last two games a bit bizarre. I understand that rotating the team is necessary and we were targeting two competitions but based on the last two performances we have not pulled it off correctly. Zebre should have been carded at least once for repeated infringements but we were extremely inaccurate in the last two games.

ClanofLams

Mul, it's over

freyners wrote: »

I find how we've handled the last two games a bit bizarre. I understand that rotating the team is necessary and we were targeting two competitions but based on the last two performances we have not pulled it off correctly. Zebre should have been carded at least once for repeated infringements but we were extremely inaccurate in the last two games.

Thought it was handled fine to be honest. Had the rules not changed and there was a home semi for winning in Sale going with a stronger team would definitely have been worth thinking about. But with the high likelihood of a very difficult semi away in La Rochelle as the reward, prioritising the league was logical.

The performance last night was obviously very far from fine.

freyners

The Friend Zone

ClanofLams wrote: »

Thought it was handled fine to be honest. Had the rules not changed and there was a home semi for winning in Sale going with a stronger team would definitely have been worth thinking about. But with the high likelihood of a very difficult semi away in La Rochelle as the reward, prioritising the league was logical.

The performance last night was obviously very far from fine.

I agree with that thinking but why use up bundees minutes on it and put out Godwin again. We put out a largely second choice pack so clearly we're not going hell for leather but they were not available last Saturday and we could have real used both along with bealham and risking carty

What I'm saying is we didn't really choose one over the other. We half went at the cc and it almost bit us twice

KBurke85

The Friend Zone

freyners wrote: »

I agree with that thinking but why use up bundees minutes on it and put out Godwin again. We put out a largely second choice pack so clearly we're not going hell for leather but they were not available last Saturday and we could have real used both along with bealham and risking carty

What I'm saying is we didn't really choose one over the other. We half went at the cc and it almost bit us twice

Even if Bundee didn’t play on Sale he would have been off this week. It was an Irfu call.

freyners

The Friend Zone

KBurke85 wrote: »

Even if Bundee didn’t play on Sale he would have been off this week. It was an Irfu call.

Did not realise the IRFU chose the weeks, thought it was a you have an X amount available test, cheers

CowboyTed

ClanofLams wrote: »

Thought it was handled fine to be honest. Had the rules not changed and there was a home semi for winning in Sale going with a stronger team would definitely have been worth thinking about. But with the high likelihood of a very difficult semi away in La Rochelle as the reward, prioritising the league was logical.

The performance last night was obviously very far from fine.

La Rochelle(even after losing this weekend) have a relatively easier run in than rivals and could very well qualify...

We could have gone up that way without the win...

Sale had a big win and are now 5th... The place could very well go to the Champions Cup winners league this year.

Wegians89

The Friend Zone

Interesting the craggy rugby crowd were suggesting that big signings are dependent on champions cup rugby. Pretty obvious but it’d suggest to me that it’d be pretty big signings to demand champions cup

Former Former

You've got a Friend in me

Wegians89 wrote: »

Interesting the craggy rugby crowd were suggesting that big signings are dependent on champions cup rugby. Pretty obvious but it’d suggest to me that it’d be pretty big signings to demand champions cup

You mean that Connacht would only be permitted to make big signings, or that big players would only come west if Champions Cup was on the table?

I dunno, you look at the likes of Carbery and Beirne going to Munster, Jordi and Jack McGrath going to Ulster; Connacht need to be able to offer guys CC rugby to give them a shop window to put their international case forward. Even for foreign signings, Connacht haven't been able to land the big names, Aki was pretty much the last one?

Tommybojangles

Mul, it's over

Wegians89 wrote: »

Interesting the craggy rugby crowd were suggesting that big signings are dependent on champions cup rugby. Pretty obvious but it’d suggest to me that it’d be pretty big signings to demand champions cup

Hopefully you're right and it means theres one or two marquee moves in the pipeline.... the sevu Reece mess has really seen a spot go to waste

Wegians89

The Friend Zone

Former Former wrote: »

You mean that Connacht would only be permitted to make big signings, or that big players would only come west if Champions Cup was on the table?

I dunno, you look at the likes of Carbery and Beirne going to Munster, Jordi and Jack McGrath going to Ulster; Connacht need to be able to offer guys CC rugby to give them a shop window to put their international case forward. Even for foreign signings, Connacht haven't been able to land the big names, Aki was pretty much the last one?

Meaning big players wouldn’t be interested in coming with out it.

The fact that friend said they would sign a tight head and back three player to replace kelleher and Carey but nothing has been announced, along with what the craggy lads said, has given me the (maybe unrealistic) hope that there are deals for replacements that are top drawer but on the condition of champions cup.

Bundee was a super star signing but I think butler, faingaa and Godwin all came over as multiple super rugby capped, Godwin even internationally. They mightn’t have bven at bundees level but pretty big all the same. Sevu Reece could have had a similar impact as bundee but that didn’t work out as we know

Lucas44

Wegians89 wrote: »

Meaning big players wouldn’t be interested in coming with out it.

The fact that friend said they would sign a tight head and back three player to replace kelleher and Carey but nothing has been announced, along with what the craggy lads said, has given me the (maybe unrealistic) hope that there are deals for replacements that are top drawer but on the condition of champions cup.

Bundee was a super star signing but I think butler, faingaa and Godwin all came over as multiple super rugby capped, Godwin even internationally. They mightn’t have bven at bundees level but pretty big all the same. Sevu Reece could have had a similar impact as bundee but that didn’t work out as we know

Godwin was a far bigger signing than bundee in terms of reputation before arriving here out west, bundee became the superstar he is today in connacht not with the chiefs otherwise they wouldn’t of let him go. Looking bag yes it was a major signing but at the time it wasn’t