The Jumpers are Coming 2018/19

RivetingRoger

Samcro NR

Are they even embarrassed I wonder
He will go here...he doesnt
he will go there ....he doesnt

Such a load of bollocks

kiers47

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Samcro NR

Are they even embarrassed I wonder
He will go here...he doesnt
he will go there ....he doesnt

Such a load of bollocks

Has he actually been confirmed as a non runner.

Chapman just had on twitter there that Elliot told him despite rumors that the intention is to run at Newcastle.

Backstreet Moyes

Elliot is not scared of throwing a horse in at the deep end.

He wants to know if he has a champion hurdle horse or whether to go chasing I will be surprised if he doesn't run.

kiers47

Probably some lads doing a bit of speculating on the exchanges for absolutely peanuts.

Elliot usually honest enough about these things and rare enough they drift on BF before being publicly announced.

posturingpat

Nice run by Grotesque there, weakened late on but in truth he was always going to after so long off with Davy getting involved with the front runner early. Jumped nicely all the way around until the last where he was very tired.
Almost a year off the track and I'm sure they're very pleased and will find a handicap or 2 for him off his current mark of 116. Put him in the tracker.

posturingpat

Mengli Khan looks a natural over a fence. He could be very exciting.

kiers47

posturingpat wrote: »

Mengli Khan looks a natural over a fence. He could be very exciting.

He jumped nicely didn't he. He was a bit big at the first and kind of low into the last but really thought he was brilliant for his first run over fences. Hopefully he can come on for that again.

kiers47

Only 14 declared for the Hennessy/Ladbrokes Trophy. That's pretty dissapointing.

longshotvalue

posturingpat wrote: »

Mengli Khan looks a natural over a fence. He could be very exciting.

I only saw the last 3 but he seesm far to slow over then fences to me for the Arkle. I must look at the whole race..

slimshady007

aidankkk wrote: »

I only saw the last 3 but he seesm far to slow over then fences to me for the Arkle. I must look at the whole race..

I think Davy knew he had it in the bag and just wanted to make sure he got to the other side. In the middle part of the race he was gaining several lengths over each fence. Visually it was very impressive but like with most races at this time of year it's hard to know what he beat.

kiers47

Yes he was definitely very slick for the middle of the race. Towards the end the race was won and your right. Davy just let him pop them.

Also worth noting that they didnt jump any of the 3 down the back straight.

Joe_ Public

kiers47 wrote: »

Only 14 declared for the Hennessy/Ladbrokes Trophy. That's pretty dissapointing.

It doesn’t look the most imposing renewal alright. I guess they think a bit of Elegant Escape but stable confidence not enough to sway me at the price. Black Corton is over twice the odds, 12s best price now I think, and has the form in the book against the likely fav from last season. Has to give a few pounds which is a negative but still looks a value punt to me.

kiers47

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It doesn’t look the most imposing renewal alright. I guess they think a bit of Elegant Escape but stable confidence not enough to sway me at the price. Black Corton is over twice the odds, 12s best price now I think, and has the form in the book against the likely fav from last season. Has to give a few pounds which is a negative but still looks a value punt to me.

Ya it is pretty poor alright. Elegant Escape is a woeful price i thought. I was looking at the betting last weekend and American was 25/1 so i was thinking i would try and get back some of the money i bet on him last year. haha

But he must have been tipped up somewhere(Paul Kealy in the weekender maybe?) as he has halved in price.
I must look again this evening hopefully someone loses there mind also and bets to 5 places.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

Ya it is pretty poor alright. Elegant Escape is a woeful price i thought. I was looking at the betting last weekend and American was 25/1 so i was thinking i would try and get back some of the money i bet on him last year. haha

But he must have been tipped up somewhere(Paul Kealy in the weekender maybe?) as he has halved in price.
I must look again this evening hopefully someone loses there mind also and bets to 5 places.

Stuck American up early in the week at 20/1 . I think Tom Segal was talking about him Monday , and he has been dropping since. Id be worried about the jock who as very little experiance but a 50% strike rate in chase's. I was also assuming it would get to soft as tetheh forecast was very wet for the week. It seems to be still good-soft which would be another negative. Im note sure he is much valeu now, altough if it does get soft with onyl 14 runners 12/1 shoudl be grand.

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

Stuck American up early in the week at 20/1 . I think Tom Segal was talking about him Monday , and he has been dropping since. Id be worried about the jock who as very little experiance but a 50% strike rate in chase's. I was also assuming it would get to soft as tetheh forecast was very wet for the week. It seems to be still good-soft which would be another negative. Im note sure he is much valeu now, altough if it does get soft with onyl 14 runners 12/1 shoudl be grand.

That explains it so. I suppose if he did get the soft ground as you say 12/1 would be fair enough. There is no doubt he is one of the best handicapped horses in the race if recapturing his form.

maximo31

kiers47 wrote: »

Only 14 declared for the Hennessy/Ladbrokes Trophy. That's pretty dissapointing.

Bit disappointing alright. Heading over this evening for the 2 day meet.
20 runners last year,19 the year before. Still tricky to find a stand out though!
Henderson's in the last tomorrow i'm told is well fancied.....

Dr. Bre

American still in the betting for the rehearsal at Newcastle on the same day

maximo31

Kemboy now a non-runner due to travel issues....

RivetingRoger

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Samcro NR

Are they even embarrassed I wonder
He will go here...he doesnt
he will go there ....he doesnt

Such a load of bollocks

Apologies chaps, jumped the gun there!


So it seems Samcro made the ferry and Kemboy didnt.....Kemboy on a sesh last night!!


Got me thinking, Gordon doesn't send a whole pile of horses to the UK. He ain't sending Samcro for the craic. Is he using Mick Jazz as a form line as to why Samcro should beat BD??

Could have stayed home and ran on Sunday V AJ but he is going for it.

My instinct all along has been to swerve BD, just watch Samcro and see how it goes this time, and chuck a score on Summerville Boy at 4/1, but the more I think about it..........as I said, He ain't sending the horse to Newcastle for the craic of it!!


hhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

zpehtsfd

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Apologies chaps, jumped the gun there!


So it seems Samcro made the ferry and Kemboy didnt.....Kemboy on a sesh last night!!


Got me thinking, Gordon doesn't send a whole pile of horses to the UK. He ain't sending Samcro for the craic. Is he using Mick Jazz as a form line as to why Samcro should beat BD??

Could have stayed home and ran on Sunday V AJ but he is going for it.

My instinct all along has been to swerve BD, just watch Samcro and see how it goes this time, and chuck a score on Summerville Boy at 4/1, but the more I think about it..........as I said, He ain't sending the horse to Newcastle for the craic of it!!


hhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I think they're trying to find out, sooner rather then later, whether he really is a CH contender. The Hattons Grace wouldn't be the best option right now. imo

Backstreet Moyes

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Apologies chaps, jumped the gun there!


So it seems Samcro made the ferry and Kemboy didnt.....Kemboy on a sesh last night!!


Got me thinking, Gordon doesn't send a whole pile of horses to the UK. He ain't sending Samcro for the craic. Is he using Mick Jazz as a form line as to why Samcro should beat BD??

Could have stayed home and ran on Sunday V AJ but he is going for it.

My instinct all along has been to swerve BD, just watch Samcro and see how it goes this time, and chuck a score on Summerville Boy at 4/1, but the more I think about it..........as I said, He ain't sending the horse to Newcastle for the craic of it!!


hhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

He is sending Samcro over to find out if he is a champion hurdle horse or not that is the reason.

I wouldn't be backing him just because he is sending him over.

posturingpat

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Apologies chaps, jumped the gun there!


So it seems Samcro made the ferry and Kemboy didnt.....Kemboy on a sesh last night!!



Got me thinking, Gordon doesn't send a whole pile of horses to the UK. He ain't sending Samcro for the craic. Is he using Mick Jazz as a form line as to why Samcro should beat BD??

Could have stayed home and ran on Sunday V AJ but he is going for it.

My instinct all along has been to swerve BD, just watch Samcro and see how it goes this time, and chuck a score on Summerville Boy at 4/1, but the more I think about it..........as I said, He ain't sending the horse to Newcastle for the craic of it!!


hhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Has anywhere got it priced yet? I think/hope with the samcro hype there could be something like 11/8 offered for Buveur dair and I don't think I can pass it up if I can get it. A double champion hurdle winner that hasn't lost a race since the 2016 supreme against an improving handicapper in bedrock, a horse that has had 2 starts outside of Novice company(Samcro), fell in one and got beat by said handicapper in the other and then Somerville boy who is thrown in at the deepend on his first start in open company.

I really hope it's a good race but in truth if Buver dair is fit and well he should be winning.

kiers47

posturingpat wrote: »

Has anywhere got it priced yet? I think/hope with the samcro hype there could be something like 11/8 offered for Buveur dair and I don't think I can pass it up if I can get it. A double champion hurdle winner that hasn't lost a race since the 2016 supreme against an improving handicapper in bedrock, a horse that has had 2 starts outside of Novice company(Samcro), fell in one and got beat by said handicapper in the other and then Somerville boy who is thrown in at the deepend on his first start in open company.

I really hope it's a good race but in truth if Buver dair is fit and well he should be winning.

Ladbrokes opened 6/4 BD 7/4 Samcro.
Still 11/8 BD last i checked. How much you'd get on today is another question.

The 6/4 was probably an insult. I think somewhere in the region of Evens to 5/4 is the correct price.

There is 9/4 Samcro out there. Unibet i think. Which is probably just over where id have it also.
Im finding it hard to split them at the prices myself and really im not interested in anything away from the 2.
Ill probably stick to the Ladbrokes trophy for a betting medium on saturday.

madmoose

Putting up two for the weekend now to see how they get on before the decs.

Big River 8/1 - Rehersal Chase Newcastle Saturday

Discorama 10/1 Drinmore - Sunday

Both ew i can see both being shorter.

BumperD

Kalashnakov out tomorrow at Plumpton

posturingpat

BumperD wrote: »

Kalashnakov out tomorrow at Plumpton

Looking Forward to it, i was rather underwhelmed with his debut and surprised with the plaudits he received. Looked More a Jlt Horse to me. Hopefully he improves tomorrow.

Dr. Bre

What happened American ? He was fancied on here.

akelly02

Harry let his sister in law ride it, thats what happened

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

Harry let his sister in law ride it, thats what happened

Thats Bull****. Horse is a sulker and did what he does best. You could have Ruby Or AP Or Carberry in their prime and itd make no difference, he decides when he's on it.

akelly02

posturingpat wrote: »

Thats Bull****. Horse is a sulker and did what he does best. You could have Ruby Or AP Or Carberry in their prime and itd make no difference, he decides when he's on it.

when has he sulked before like that ?

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

when has he sulked before like that ?

Last years race. Could argue the Gold up too but that might be harsh as hes not that level and could be he just didnt have the ability.
He is good but not one i'd ever trust.

akelly02

posturingpat wrote: »

Last years race. Could argue the Gold up too but that might be harsh as hes not that level and could be he just didnt have the ability.
He is good but not one i'd ever trust.

no, he made a mistake at the water in last years race IIRC and was never travelling after. I backed him that day so im fairly sure thats what happened

The gold cup he wes hopelessly outclassed and it was run in a swamp so i can forgive him that

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

no, he made a mistake at the water in last years race IIRC and was never travelling after. I backed him that day so im fairly sure thats what happened

The gold cup he wes hopelessly outclassed and it was run in a swamp so i can forgive him that

Apparently he came back in with an overreach injury last year if my memory is working but i remember watching the race and thinking Look at this dog sulking when he can't get the lead, that was early on.I'd say he might've suffered the injury in the mistake youre referring to but dummy was spat out by then.
When hes on it hes good but i really think he decides when he's on and the Jockey just has to let him at it, hence claiming a few lb the other day.

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Kalashnakov out tomorrow at Plumpton

Impressive 2nd run (missed his first). Good to see him in there taking progressive steps towards the Arkle

lemush

Dr. Bre wrote: »

What happened American ? He was fancied on here.

He’s an absolute hound

Slattsy

Who wins the Tingle Creek?

Ground potentially going to be very soft. I suppose if there's ever a time to beat Altior it's first time out on soft ground.

UDS for me at 6s after he was confirmed earlier. I think only 4 or 5 go to post for this if I'm reading it right!

posturingpat

I've given up trying to get Altior beat. He's a beast and I think could be even better if they stepped him up in trip. If Uds is going the 6's ew would be a fair bet now if there's 3 places available, hell surely be in the first 3 but can't see him beating Altior.

redzerdrog

Altuir is out of the tingle creek

Edit: Actually scrap that looks like he still in, thought I saw he a non runner but must be dreaming it

redzerdrog

redzerdrog wrote: »

Altuir is out of the tingle creek

Where is this coming from?

akelly02

Seems there’s a million front runners in this . Sceau royale could have a lovely run of Daryl plays his cards right

RivetingRoger

Bellshill V Min V Percy on Sunday


will ruby ride Bellshill?



Cant have Min


Will the trip suit Percy?


Will be some race!!

Auroras_encore

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Bellshill V Min V Percy on Sunday


will ruby ride Bellshill?



Cant have Min


Will the trip suit Percy?


Will be some race!!

why could you not have min ? dont think another 4 furlongs will make much difference to him , The only horse around that can beat him is altior who is well on his way to being up there with sprinter sacre

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Who wins the Tingle Creek?

Ground potentially going to be very soft. I suppose if there's ever a time to beat Altior it's first time out on soft ground.

UDS for me at 6s after he was confirmed earlier. I think only 4 or 5 go to post for this if I'm reading it right!

If its very soft UDS is near unbeatable. Id imagine if it turns heavy then Altior wont run, neither would Sceau.

Slattsy

aidankkk wrote: »

If its very soft UDS is near unbeatable. Id imagine if it turns heavy then Altior wont run, neither would Sceau.

Into 4s

TheMilkyPirate

Auroras_encore wrote: »

why could you not have min ? dont think another 4 furlongs will make much difference to him , The only horse around that can beat him is altior who is well on his way to being up there with sprinter sacre

Apart from the times within the last year when 5 other horses have also beat him.

akelly02

Auroras_encore wrote: »

why could you not have min ? dont think another 4 furlongs will make much difference to him , The only horse around that can beat him is altior who is well on his way to being up there with sprinter sacre

Politilogue says hello

RivetingRoger

Auroras_encore wrote: »

why could you not have min ? dont think another 4 furlongs will make much difference to him , The only horse around that can beat him is altior who is well on his way to being up there with sprinter sacre

Are you thinking of another horse there Aurora??
Min hasn't won a race of real note against another top class opponent in AGES!

Only horse to beat him is Altior? Huh?


Bellshill is my pick of the WPM horses
Still think (hope) percy wins

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Into 4s

There is a bit of 6/1 available. Just looking at forecast and its just rain rain and more rain.



All that said, its not like Altior has no form on soft. Itll be a great race either way

RivetingRoger

Just a note of caution re Tingle Creek
I am a huge UDS fan, if he goes off around the 5's mark i will have a bit
but..........
People thinking he is unbeatable on heavy....


He was beaten by a pretty average horse on heavy last march
ok over a shorter trip but he was very uncomfortable for a large portion of that race and was beaten by the 2m mark



Just don't get carried away that he is "unbeatable" with cut in the ground


He ain't


No horse is

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Just a note of caution re Tingle Creek
I am a huge UDS fan, if he goes off around the 5's mark i will have a bit
but..........
People thinking he is unbeatable on heavy....


He was beaten by a pretty average horse on heavy last march
ok over a shorter trip but he was very uncomfortable for a large portion of that race and was beaten by the 2m mark



Just don't get carried away that he is "unbeatable" with cut in the ground


He ain't


No horse is

He's obviously not unbeatable but i do mean if its heavy. And that loss was over 2m5f. around here on heavy he will be a treat to any horse and the 4/6 adn 6/1 differance is far too big