Post Tropical Storm Helene 17/18 Sep 2018

Planet X

hairyslug wrote: »

Can anyone tell me what I should be expecting for Wales early next week, am off camping.

You should be expect very bad and stormy weather........

ThaitaniumM

GFS 06Z has Helene shifted W

Wanderer78

ThaitaniumM wrote: »

GFS 06Z has Helene shifted W

spotted that alright, will be a while before we nail this one down

squarecircles

west coast takes a battering on the 06z run,it seems to be deepening as it approaches the south coast of ireland,quite vicious







monday night is looking very balmy
as ex helene drags up sub tropical air.

MJohnston

I think it should probably be noted (for the onlookers) that there is probably a high chance of some form of at least orange-level impact from ex-Helene at this stage. The eastern side of the system has quite strong winds and gusts, nothing out of the ordinary for Ireland, but still strong. The western side has heavy amounts of precipitation (in the 20-30mm/hr range). So, some models are showing it going west, some are showing it going east, but either way, some of us will be in line for either strong winds or heavy rains.

highdef

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it should probably be noted (for the onlookers) that there is probably a high chance of some form of at least orange-level impact from ex-Helene at this stage. The eastern side of the system has quite strong winds and gusts, nothing out of the ordinary for Ireland, but still strong. The western side has heavy amounts of precipitation (in the 20-30mm/hr range). So, some models are showing it going west, some are showing it going east, but either way, some of us will be in line for either strong winds or heavy rains.

Trees in full leaf is certainly going to be a contributing factor with regard to any warnings that may be issued.

squarecircles

MET ÉIREANN BRIEFING REGARDING TROPICAL STORM HELENE AS OF NOON, FRIDAY 14TH SEPTEMBER

Tropical Storm Helene

Tropical Storm Helene is the system which is pertinent to us here in Ireland because current guidance indicates that Helene will take a northeastward track towards our shores early next week. Tropical Storm Helene is already transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone southwest of the Azores Islands. This means that Helene will lose it’s tropical characteristics including it’s warm core, organised deep convection and closed surface wind circulation and become more akin to the low pressure systems we are used to seeing in our part of the world. It will develop fronts, the strongest winds will shift around to the east and south of the low pressure system with the heaviest rain on the western side of the low pressure centre.

The current forecast is that “Storm Helene” or “ex-Tropical Storm Helene” will be to the south of Ireland on Monday night. Current guidance has the low pressure system moving northeastwards up through the Irish Sea overnight Monday and early on Tuesday, although the exact path is still uncertain. A humid spell of wet and windy weather is expected to sweep up over Ireland on Monday night and early Tuesday as a result. Current guidance suggests the potential for warning level winds and perhaps rain with the system.There remains some uncertainty in the track of the system. There remains some uncertainty in the track of the system. Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and issue warnings, as required, closer to the time.

spookwoman

No mention of it during the 1 o'clock forecast and they show the monday and tuesday as pretty normal days. You would think they would put up a note or something to say possible watch this space or something to say there may be a warning issued. Plowing championships next week and they were talking about having a stand etc as if there was no noon briefing.

Sycamore Tree

spookwoman wrote: »

No mention of it during the 1 o'clock forecast and they show the monday and tuesday as pretty normal days. You would think they would put up a note or something to say possible watch this space or something to say there may be a warning issued. Plowing championships next week and they were talking about having a stand etc as if there was no noon briefing.

I don't think they can realistically start talking about Helene so far out when Florence is hammering the US and a typhoon is hammering the Phillipines. They do have coverage of both of those on the main bulletin.

I imagine they will start warning about Helene soon.

btw, your avatar concerns me spookwoman

screamer

In true self interest mode here Helene would have an impact on us if it tracks over us..... Florence will be minimal, and the typhoon won't affect us, so yes I think Met EIREANN should be talking about Helene if nothing else to flag it

squarecircles

flip/flop 12z slams the south and east coast.

irishrover99

screamer wrote: »

In true self interest mode here Helene would have an impact on us if it tracks over us..... Florence will be minimal, and the typhoon won't affect us, so yes I think Met EIREANN should be talking about Helene if nothing else to flag it

TBH I’m not sure 5 days notice is needed even if it’s a red warning.

We don’t live in houses made of wood so a simple, stay indoors announcement a day or two before will suffice.

MJohnston

WXCharts doesn't have the 3 hour frames for the GFS, but they do have a much easier to read color scale:




This would be Orange level warnings, possibly verging on Red level, for parts of the south (and maybe East too, those in-between frames will be vital once the higher-res models come in range).

Frostybrew

I wonder is this the start of a longer term trend? This is the second time in a year that a former hurricane has moved from the eastern Atlantic in the direction of Ireland. Could there be more destructive storms in the years ahead, possibly the equivalent of Cat two hurricanes? Or are they outliers?

squarecircles

oh,how i do look foward to the irish ex hurricane season.

screamer

irishrover99 wrote: »

screamer wrote: »

In true self interest mode here Helene would have an impact on us if it tracks over us..... Florence will be minimal, and the typhoon won't affect us, so yes I think Met EIREANN should be talking about Helene if nothing else to flag it

TBH I’m not sure 5 days notice is needed even if it’s a red warning.

We don’t live in houses made of wood so a simple, stay indoors announcement a day or two before will suffice.

Disagree...what about farmers with stick to sort out....there's plenty of outdoor workers, building sites to be made safe etc and a 2 day warning is frankly too little......

MJohnston

ICON 12z definitely leaning towards Red level warnings for southern counties:

spookwoman

irishrover99 wrote: »

TBH I’m not sure 5 days notice is needed even if it’s a red warning.

We don’t live in houses made of wood so a simple, stay indoors announcement a day or two before will suffice.

If people have to make appointments, travel plowing championships at least they know it may happen. Some says it could hit monday night so that not that far away

squarecircles

someone may need to open an official thread for helene tomorrow if this trend continues.

Kermit.de.frog

This is the official thread

Impacts look minimal at the moment and below an orange warning. System looks to get absorbed and move through quickly on Monday.

Akrasia

spookwoman wrote: »

If people have to make appointments, travel plowing championships at least they know it may happen. Some says it could hit monday night so that not that far away

They're farmers, they know how to check the weather forecast themselves

There would be war if Met Eireann hyped this up and caused the plowing championship to suffer and then the storm misses us to the south

48 hour notice should be enough once we know where this system is likely to hit us.

SleetAndSnow

those images look like the two most populous areas in the country could get a hammering.

Oh how I can't wait till the images start to stabilise and an exact route is formed

spookwoman

Akrasia wrote: »

They're farmers, they know how to check the weather forecast themselves

There would be war if Met Eireann hyped this up and caused the plowing championship to suffer and then the storm misses us to the south

48 hour notice should be enough once we know where this system is likely to hit us.

a met forecast that doesnt mention the possible storm coming yep that's handy. No one is saying to hype it like the last time just to say there may be storm on monday night tuesday.

Metuk have set a yellow alert https://www.bbc.com/weather/warnings?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_linkname=news_central

SleetAndSnow

Met Éireann not really making much of it on the 6pm weather. Just that it won’t be tropical and to keep an eye out for warnings.

ECM rolling out now, exciting?

Rikand

Got a mention on rtes 6 o clock news

A bit windy and wet or something to that effect

Rikand

And I just saw sleets post above mine lol

SleetAndSnow

Rikand wrote: »

And I just saw sleets post above mine lol

Yours said something mine didn't . But yeah thats pretty much all they said.

Meteorite58

The GFS, ARPEGE and ICON have tracked the strongest winds over Ireland keeping the center of the storm off the W coast. Now the ECM has nudged the centre of the storm over Ireland with the strongest winds in the S, SE and E coastal counties. Gusts up to around 130 km/h showing on the charts atm. The ECM showing the least widespread strong winds.

Meteorite58

These are all in the Orange wind category at present I would have thought, possibly touching red in places. Early days but Ireland has featured with strong winds now for a couple of days in the models . I think the models have been trending the winds stronger every run. Would not rule out some damage at this rate. Could change but I am seeing similarities in the consistency with the tracking of Ophelia. Tightly packed isobars, quick forward moving system being propelled by the Jet.

GFS showing gusts 130 to 150 km/h along the coasts.

Gust charts.

MJohnston

You can really see the sheltering effect of the Dublin/Wicklow mountains on the Dublin city area here:



Most of the strongest winds are southerlies in the south-east quadrant of the storm, so Dublin is fairly well protected in that regard. Dublin county won't be mind you, and might receive Red-level gusts in the mountainous parts, so it will be interesting to see what ME do in that case.