Post Tropical Storm Helene 17/18 Sep 2018

Graces7

goat2 wrote: »

westerly winds 50-80 km/hr by afternoon and increasing again to southwest 70-110 km/hr by evening as another front arrives. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 17 to 19 C. )

Above is MT,s forecast for southwest on Tuesday , Not looking forward to this

Nor me frankly. Westerly is bad enough here but south westerly arouses the rip tide current. Stood at the back watching it the other day... all prepared here thankfully . No need to go anywhere.

John.Icy

People in Dublin (and other areas in the east and central areas) forget with all the Ophelia hype over the far south (justified) that Dublin Airport had a max gust of 104km/h. Other east areas between 100-115km/h.

Shouldn't be turning our noses up at potential wind events because a storm system won't hit 150km/h gusts. Look at what it will produce in your area. 100km/h in Ophelia was enough to rattle plenty of Dubs on here and have Ophelia leave a long lasting impression. Have seen several charts with such a possibility for Helene.

EDIT: If the below is aimed at me, I am not saying this is Ophelia. Just pointing out for Eastern folk that the wind speeds from Ophelia were yellow warning in many areas (gusts to 110km/h) - so don't ignore a wind event because the maximum gust forecast isn't on par with Ophelia. Focus on what will be produced in your area and Ophelia levels gusts are possible in Dublin area - but that of course is yellow warning stuff.

JanuarySnowstor

This is no ophelia which remained a hurricane until maybe 150 miles from Ireland
It does however hold some interest and could well pack a punch for the South and east.
From my experience (leaving aside ophelia) ex tropical systems provide a bit extra than your standard low pressure. That can be anything from severe squall line to extreme gusts.
My punt for now is a brief but potent spell of weather warranting an orange for South and east and yellow elsewhere

goat2

Any one going to Ploughing match, what effect will it have on this, starting Tuesday, and on a couple of days, I am hoping to go on wednesday

JanuarySnowstor

goat2 wrote: »

Any one going to Ploughing match, what effect will it have on this, starting Tuesday, and on a couple of days, I am hoping to go on wednesday

Most likely none it will just be blustery with showers on and off though heavy rain Monday night may hamper conditions underfoot.
It's more a southeast event tbh

CirrusBusiness

John.Icy wrote: »

People in Dublin (and other areas in the east and central areas) forget with all the Ophelia hype over the far south (justified) that Dublin Airport had a max gust of 104km/h. Other east areas between 100-115km/h.

Shouldn't be turning our noses up at potential wind events because a storm system won't hit 150km/h gusts. Look at what it will produce in your area. 100km/h in Ophelia was enough to rattle plenty of Dubs on here and have Ophelia leave a long lasting impression. Have seen several charts with such a possibility for Helene.

Parts of Wexford and Waterford could reach Red criteria. Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois and Wicklow would be Orange at least looking at the Arpege here. At least it moves through pretty quickly but there is the potential for some damaging gusts and fallen trees in these areas as they are in full leaf. Down to the final track which will determine the level of warnings issued.

This storm is bringing similar levels of gusts as Ophelia which was enough to cause significant damage in our garden. Nothing to be sniffed at.

Cantona's Collars

Graces7 wrote: »

We have a gale here now. southerly. Rehearsal?

A normal day in the West.
It's mild and pleasant here at the other end of the country with a slight breeze.
Looks to be a bit different here when this system arrives.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040914383503859717

Meteorite58

Even with so much shear and entering cooler SST's Helene still maintaining relatively high wind speeds.

Tropical Tidbits








NHC

247
WTNT43 KNHC 150841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018

Helene appears to be maintaining its strength. Recent microwave
images show that the storm has an eye feature, but the vortex is
significantly tilted in the vertical due to southwesterly shear.
Deep convection is most organized in bands to the north and west of
the center. Based on the tropical storm's appearance in microwave
images, the initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the high
end of the satellite intensity estimates. Helene is expected to
gradually weaken during the next few days due to the influences of
southwesterly shear, drier air, and much cooler SSTs along the
forecast track. These conditions should also cause Helene to lose
tropical characteristics, and the storm is forecast become
extratropical in 24 to 36 hours.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at a fairly fast
pace, 19 kt. The center of Helene is expected to pass to the west
of the Azores by tonight. However, Helene has a fairly large wind
field, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected across the
western Azores as the storm passes by. A shortwave trough to the
northwest of the system is expected to approach Helene by tonight,
and that should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward and then
speed up in that direction as it heads toward Ireland and the United
Kingdom late this weekend and early next week. The models are in
fair agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC
track forecast.

Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches
Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three days. Interests in
those locations should consult products from their local
meteorological service for information about potential impacts from
Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the
website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.
Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 37.7N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 41.8N 29.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 44.1N 24.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 46.7N 18.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 55.8N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Meteorite58

WRF, ARPEGE and the GFS have shifted E a bit again keeping the highest winds nearer the coasts in the SE and E. ICON 06Z showing the S included in the strongest winds and keeping the wind field in over more of the country.

Track will be everything. Seems to be maintaining the wind speeds in the last few runs.

Will be interesting to see what the ECM does later.

Graces7

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

Parts of Wexford and Waterford could reach Red criteria. Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois and Wicklow would be Orange at least looking at the Arpege here. At least it moves through pretty quickly but there is the potential for some damaging gusts and fallen trees in these areas as they are in full leaf. Down to the final track which will determine the level of warnings issued.

This storm is bringing similar levels of gusts as Ophelia which was enough to cause significant damage in our garden. Nothing to be sniffed at.

as long as it stays there... no sneaking over westwards please... Ophelia was a lady; got as far as Clare then veered right to the midlands. Left Mayo and Sligo alone.

Just been out at the back and calm but ominous somehow. Almost flat ocean. Wind picking up now.

Graces7

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

A normal day in the West.
It's mild and pleasant here at the other end of the country with a slight breeze.
Looks to be a bit different here when this system arrives.

Yes and that keeps the midges away!

spookwoman

Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

Another post, seems similar to their last one.

spookwoman

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

Another post, seems similar to their last one.

Link not working

They posted another 5 mins ago https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040989730823909376

The latest guidance has shifted the forecast track of Storm Helene a little westward from yesterday with the centre of the low now tracking up over parts of Ireland instead of mainly up through the Irish Sea. That said, there continues to be large uncertainty in the exact track. Timings are also a little variant, however it still looks as though the main impact will occur on Monday evening/night and early on Tuesday. Yellow level impacts from wind are looking increasingly likely for coastal districts of the east and south, with strong gales or storm force winds for a time in the Celtic and Irish seas. Short interval intense rainfall may occur in places, but due to the speed at which the system is moving through, it is not envisaged at this stage that a rain warning will be required, although this aspect will continue to be examined more closely once our high resolution model guidance becomes available on Sunday. Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and issue warnings, as required, closer to the time.

JanuarySnowstor

12z runs weaken it quite a bit.
It's barely a yellow warning going by this evenings charts.
Next.....lol

MJohnston

ICON is still showing solid 'Orange' level gusts for much of the south and east:



And there's trouble brewing Wednesday too:

Meteorite58

Yeah on average latest winds not as strong as in previous runs and mainly staying out to sea. Will see what the ECM says later.

MJohnston

Also, again everywhere on the west of the storm centre will receive a fair amount of rain:

goat2

spookwoman wrote: »

Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.

I am watching the aftermath of the storm in America, and they seem to have big trees too near their homes, it is no wonder the houses are being crumpled, they knew it was coming, they could have lopped them down a bit, It would have prevented them from being toppled

How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?

goat2

We should feel it on the way about 7 o clock in the evening onwards Monday, I should think

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?

https://twitter.com/WhispersNewsLTD/status/919623752937242624

MeTheMan

Going on the last two charts gusts will be worse on Wednesday. With trees weakend from helene the day before Wednesday go turn out to be worse.

Widdershins

It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.

Sycamore Tree

Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.

monster1

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.

You might get knocked yet

acequion

Widdershins wrote: »

It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.

Very gusty here too in Kerry. We're all different but storms are a million miles from my idea of excitement.

EdgeCase

Fairly windy night in Cork City. It started turning a bit breezy and wet after 7pm-ish.

It’s just a normal autumnal breezy night though.

CeilingFly

BBC weather not mentioning any warnings and now just saying strong winds.

Hysterical indo has got rid of the sensationalist headline of "life threatening" winds and has even deleted their "yellow warning" hysterics.