Storm Ali : Weds 19 Sept 2018

RuthieRose

Does anyone have the link to the map of the wind? You know the one with all the cool colours!!

JCX BXC

Downgrades on the Midnight TAF for South and East, quite an upgrade for the West!

Dublin max gust 58kts (down from 60kts)
Shannon max gust 50kts (down from 58kts)
Cork max gust 55kts (down from 58kts)

But then Knock, max gust of 70kts very high winds. Up from 58kts. Mayo possibly more in the firing line, and Knock is quite inland. 70kts equates to 130km/h, red warning criteria.

davo2001

RuthieRose wrote: »

Does anyone have the link to the map of the wind? You know the one with all the cool colours!!

https://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

Oscar Bravo

well now its been a while since I saw this on a TAF for Knock, gusts up to 70 knots tomorrow morning.... Ali is gonna pack a punch to the west, be aware.

TAF EIKN 182300Z 1900/1924 22018G30KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
BECMG 1900/1902 19015KT
BECMG 1904/1906 17030G50KT -RA BKN012
TEMPO 1906/1909 3000 RA BKN006
BECMG 1906/1908 20030G60KT
PROB40
TEMPO 1906/1908 22035G70KT
BECMG 1910/1912 25025G47KT SCT018 BKN020
BECMG 1913/1915 24022G38KT
TEMPO 1913/1918 -SHRA SCT018CB
BECMG 1917/1919 24012KT

RuthieRose

davo2001 wrote: »

https://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

Thank you!

Meteorite58

Latest Arome 18Z showing Gusts in Galway getting up to 130 to 150 km/h

Andy From Sligo

wife starts a new job tomorrow and son has to go to physio .... still said turn back and come home ... or dont even attempt the journey if it is going to be as bad as predicted - is it really really worth risking life? - tall lorries, trees down, electricity poles and wires down, flying debris everywhere, flooding, roofs and roofing tiles blowing off ... if its truly bad these are the dangers that can face you - especially with an orange warning like that - I have seen it pretty bad even on some yellow warnings before

pauldry

Near Red Alert for West.

Though sting is moving fast. Could happen earlier than planned

ninebeanrows

Some gust ratios being predicted 30G60 and 35G70, that to me indicates stingjet like conditions

Oscar Bravo

Weathercheck wrote: »

Some gust ratios being predicted 30G60 and 35G70, that to me indicates stingjet like conditions

All in moderate rain, that's a brutal morning for Mayo, Galway, Sligo

ninebeanrows

Also forward momentum sped up ? Few hours ahead of earlier TAFS?

redsteveireland

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest Arome 18Z showing Gusts in Galway getting up to 130 to 150 km/h

That's red level territory isn't it ? i.e school closures?

Pangea

ednwireland wrote: »

Just driven a couple of miles from work lots of leaves and a few branches. Assume the worst is tommorrow and have to be in at 8am !
Sw donegal

The traffic railings at mountcharles are being blown around already so I've heard.

pauldry

Could be.

Im staying home if its pure ****e n dangerous.

Cant risk lives

mattser

The thread title reads Storm Ali. Are we getting a storm or not ?
If we are then just say so.

job seeker

Could this wind in Sligo be as bad as the storm Ophelia? (Kinda hoping I may get the day off work..)

xii

pauldry wrote: »

Could be.

Im staying home if its pure ****e n dangerous.

Cant risk lives

Pity you cant show your Employer/School this thread as a reason for staying put.

Meteorite58

redsteveireland wrote: »

That's red level territory isn't it ? i.e school closures?

Would appear so. Knock TAF gust 70 kts , would assume stronger nearer the coasts.

pauldry

Funny gettin day off work with that name

I reckon its 2hrs ahead of previous times 7am looks the start to me till 11am...i cud be wrong

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 18Z




Max Wind speeds being predicted.( Can only zoom on the portion of Ireland displayed below )

redsteveireland

High tide in Galway at 13:14 tomorrow, there'll be some wind asistance there too.

Well I've to be up for work at five, and to put the bins out, let's see how this pans out.

Andy From Sligo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Would appear so. Knock TAF gust 70 kts , would assume stronger nearer the coasts.

any flights landing in Knock airport at those times - hate to be on them flights! :eek:

Shn99

redsteveireland wrote: »

Well I've to be up for work at five, and to put the bins out, let's see how this pans out.

Ara feck it, just remembered I forgot to bring in the bins..oh well

Andy From Sligo

just poked me head out the window here in county sligo - eerily still ! not a tree swaying at the moment .... hope this isnt the proverbial "Quiet before the Storm!" scenario !

JCX BXC

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

any flights landing in Knock airport at those times - hate to be on them flights! :eek:

Any flights landing?!? There'd be no point going near knock with those winds!

spookwoman

23.00 UTC

pauldry

This seems like a 3 part event

Part 1 Heavy Rain Showers and Lightning associated with mini depression...already occurred

Part 2 Heavy Driving rain with strong wind....approaching west coast now

Part 3 Sting Jet following heavy rain bringing severe winds of over 130kph in West

Idonotknow

How bad does it have to be for your employer to have to say stay home?

Andy From Sligo

Idonotknow wrote: »

How bad does it have to be for your employer to have to say stay home?

Red - i would hazard a guess with a lot of them

M.T. Cranium

Looks at the moment as though damaging or extreme wind gusts would be hitting the west coast around 10:00h and lasting two or three hours, with that timing around an hour later for Sligo and south Donegal, and two hours later for north Ulster. With that duration, the worst of the winds should come and go during the typical working day, so it may be more of an issue where to park safely than the driving at either end, however I would strongly advise anyone who drives for a living or has a non-standard work shift or any reason to be on the roads in that time span to change plans and avoid being exposed to these gusts. The rate of development will be rapid after 0600h. I am not sure if we will get the full impact of this at buoy M6 which will be close to the low centre around 0800h. Now further south, I think the timing will be a little less sharp-edged, the winds are going to rise steadily after 0600h and peak for four to six hours perhaps 0800h to noon or beyond, and I don't think it will be quite as extreme as it's looking from Galway Bay north.

We can update that timing around 0600h (cannot be 100% confident on exact timing but a rough guide to where and when the strong winds are most likely) so you have some idea whether a morning drive is going to be safe or not, at the moment the severe winds are just starting to develop around 50 N 16 W. There's an ocean buoy at 49 N 16.5 W which has seen wind speeds steadily rising past few hours and recently (23z obs) southwest 32 knots -- this site has not reported yet for the past hour, will edit in the 00z report. (00z never appeared, 01z or 0200h was 33 knots, meanwhile, pressure falling rapidly at M6).