Economic growth doubles to 9%

Elessar

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.

The ESRI has doubled its growth forecast for the Irish economy for this year to almost 9 per cent, with growth being propelled by the twin engines of stronger-than-expected consumer spending on the domestic front, and a more favourable trade balance due to a decline in imports on the multinational side.

We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

frozenfrozen

I have a job so something must be wrong with the economy

_Brian

I’d love to see a map showing the geographic distribution of the growth.

I’d say it’s desperately condenced in a small number of areas.

I'm sure appropriate scrutiny will be order of day and not collective heads in the sand. Except that injun reservation.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.



We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

One year, or two, is neither a trend nor a pattern. They are forecasting 5% for next year, with a caveat that Brexit may impact on that. Plus, rate of growth is skewed when recovering from a period of austerity. I wouldn't panic just yet.

noodler

It's not all real. Growth

TheValeyard

Atlantic Dawn

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

tabby aspreme

Why are the Multinationals importing less, has it something to do with changes in corporate taxation.

noodler

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Why are the Multinationals importing less, has it something to do with changes in corporate taxation.

Who said they are importing less?

Is it not more, but at a lower rate?

Zebra3

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

Wheeliebin30

Of course there will be another bust and recession, that’s how these things work.

But the key this time is not to spunk too much money on houses etc.

But that’s all we’re hearing now is spend spend spend on houses, people have very short memories.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.



We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

The_Kew_Tour

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

No need

FG are doing great job of that too

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

I’d love to see a map showing the geographic distribution of the growth.

I’d say it’s desperately condenced in a small number of areas.

Like the people?

Skylinehead

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

Maybe you should actually read the article.

astrofool

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

Willie O'Dea will be frothing at the moustache.

Wibbs

Elessar wrote: »

I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

IMHO. Yes. Take personal credit. We're not as bad as we were in the "boom"? Maybe not with mortgages but personal debt has been steadily creeping up in the last five years. Home improvement loans, car financing, credit cards and so forth. Drive down any suburban road in Dublin for example and see the McMansion makeovers in play. Globally as a whole personal debt is now higher than it was in 2007(IIRC 20% higher). America usually kicks these things off and the boom/bust thing(to varying degrees of severity) in the States usually runs on a six year cycle and they're overdue a few years. Mortgages are nearly on a par with the levels of the sub prime fiasco and overall personal debt is higher than it was in 07. Car financing is higher. They've also got to deal with student loan debt which is over a third higher than in 07. That's before we look at Trump's trade tariffs and the like. Here in Ireland we're also looking down the barrel of a messy Brexit as the sugar coating on top. As well as unsustainable rent prices and so on. One advantage we have here in Ireland is that we did get a kick in the nut sack after the Celtic tiger went wallop and that might stand to us. Though as we've seen memories are short and we're so dependent on US and UK money and both aren't nearly as sure as they once were.

I have generally found that when talking heads are telling us we've never had it so good, it's a near certainty that we're likely to shortly start losing our shirts.

Capt'n Midnight

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

A hard Brexit will hit us by maybe 7%. A years growth lost.

In the UK they are looking at lot less than 9% growth.
2.5% for this year and next year. Combined.

And that's not the no-deal case.

ToddyDoody

The idea might be to save during the good times to help cope with the bad times? That's no fun, I know.

Harry Palmr

It's all in Dublin and the Pale. Feck all sign of 9% pa in Waterford or most parts of the country.

dxhound2005

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.



We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

Don't get me wrong but why are you saying it is good news and then it is bad news?

JohnnyFlash

Zebra3 wrote: »

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

What alternative economic theory would you suggest we pursue? Back of a fag packet sort of stuff.

JupiterKid

Yes, I would be sceptial. The period 2013 to 2017 was a recovery period from the recession but the boom/bust cycle is very much still in play and IMO the economy is overheating and the govt seem to be fuelling the fire with pro-cyclical fiscal policies.

Memories are very short and we never seem to learn.

The growth is restricted to major urban areas, particularly Dublin which is the engine of growth and is becoming a city state effectively decoupled to a large degree from the rest of the country.

Rural Ireland beyond the urban commuter belts has slipped into a prolonged and possibly irreversible decline.

JupiterKid

Yes, I would be sceptial. The period 2013 to 2017 was a recovery period from the recession but the boom/bust cycle is very much still in play and IMO the economy is overheating and the govt seem to be fuelling the fire with pro-cyclical fiscal policies.

Memories are very short and we never seem to learn.

The growth is restricted to major urban areas, particularly Dublin which is the engine of growth and is becoming a city state effectively decoupled to a large degree from the rest of the country.

Rural Ireland beyond the urban commuter belts has slipped into a prolonged and possibly irreversible decline.

I see things going tits up in around 2020/21. Time will tell. When will Leo tell those who are cautious to go kill themselves?

kneemos

Nalani Fancy Tightrope wrote: »

One year, or two, is neither a trend nor a pattern. They are forecasting 5% for next year, with a caveat that Brexit may impact on that. Plus, rate of growth is skewed when recovering from a period of austerity. I wouldn't panic just yet.

Their forecasting appears to be the equivalent of sticking your head out the window to declare the weather conditions.

Sunny Disposition

Nine per cent growth is massive, obviously not sustainable. No doubt we are a great example of a boom/bust economy. Dunno how much can be done about it when it is so open.

As an aside given how dominant Dublin is, the government need to put in place some incentives to encourage people to work from home. Most office jobs can be done remotely most days of the week. If the Gov can encourage companies to promote this it would go a long way to taking the sting out of Dublin property and congestion as well as finally tackling urban/rural imbalance.

suicide_circus

damned if I do damned if I don't.

buy a house now at the "top" of the market and go into negative equity or continue to pay rents spiralling ever farther out of reach.

The Rape of Lucretia

suicide_circus wrote: »

damned if I do damned if I don't.

buy a house now at the "top" of the market and go into negative equity or continue to pay rents spiralling ever farther out of reach.

Definitely the second option. Its not even a contest.

suicide_circus

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Definitely the second option. Its not even a contest.

i can't wait forever unfortunately, life circumstances are making these choices for me

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

engiweirdo

I would say the reality if the figures were broken down are even more shocking. From what I can see Waterford has definitely regressed relative to the rest of the cities and smaller towns are going absolutely nowhere. Travelled the Waterford to Limerick road a couple of weeks, if ever there was a journey in Ireland to make you question "what recovery" that was it.

I'm estimating Dublin and possibly Cork have actually experienced growth in the region of 15%+ and a lot of the rest of the country continues to suffer. Keep the recovery going. (For Leo and his rich friends)

Sky King

Zebra3 wrote: »

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

Not me!

Mooooo

suicide_circus wrote: »

damned if I do damned if I don't.

buy a house now at the "top" of the market and go into negative equity or continue to pay rents spiralling ever farther out of reach.

If you buy a house that you can live in for the rest of your days negative equity is less of an issue as prices will go up and down in your lifetime. It's making sure you can make repayments during any downturn is the important part. The biggest cause of the problems before was "starter homes" to get on the "ladder". Don't buy until you're sure you can stay there

suicide_circus

Mooooo wrote: »

If you buy a house that you can live in for the rest of your days negative equity is less of an issue as prices will go up and down in your lifetime. It's making sure you can make repayments during any downturn is the important part. The biggest cause of the problems before was "starter homes" to get on the "ladder". Don't buy until you're sure you can stay there

I've no interest in the ladder tbh the childer will just have to share rooms, tough sheite

blanch152

Mooooo wrote: »

If you buy a house that you can live in for the rest of your days negative equity is less of an issue as prices will go up and down in your lifetime. It's making sure you can make repayments during any downturn is the important part. The biggest cause of the problems before was "starter homes" to get on the "ladder". Don't buy until you're sure you can stay there

Sound advice.

No house is ever perfect, but when you are spending that kind of money, you need to know it will last you more than a decade if necessary.

There are people who bought one-bed apartments without thinking what they wanted to do with their lives over the next decade.

topper75

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Why are the Multinationals importing less, has it something to do with changes in corporate taxation.

Something to do with a free Britain moving its corpo tax downwards with nobody looking over their shoulder.

This is going to hurt and there is nothing we can do but ask the remaining euro-partners to cut us some slack.

Most of the multis here are quite footloose.

You could make a right funny thread on here though by posting a comparative table of growth predictions Vs. actual results.
Might be hard getting hands on historical predictions - they are probably all deleted :-)

Wheeliebin30

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's all in Dublin and the Pale. Feck all sign of 9% pa in Waterford or most parts of the country.

Waterford??

Are you mad, the ida Park has numerous massive pharmaceutical factories etc been built, its booming.

The_Kew_Tour

I was offered a 60,000 euro loan in BOI in Wexford Street in 2007 when first came home.

When you think back to the time when country was going crazy

Mooooo

suicide_circus wrote: »

I've no interest in the ladder tbh the childer will just have to share rooms, tough sheite

Comment wasn't directed at you , just a general statement. I'm mid 30's and most people I knw that had brothers and sisters all shared growing up. My sister's kids are the same now. Won't do em any harm. Should be a case of building up in cities for younger people to rent or share and allow families to live in the houses rather than 4 younger people renting a house that suit a family or whatever. Booms and busts may come and go but planning has to change to sort housing and transport

The_Kew_Tour

jacksie66 wrote: »

I was bolloxed when everything went tits up 10 years ago. I was a nearly qualified plumber and living waaay beyond my means. Didn't help when I had banks ringing me offering me loans. Got into a mess that I'm thankful that I worked myself out of. I have zero loans now and if I want something I save for it. Even now I'm getting a few emails and calls about loans and finance. Not happening. If and when the next crash happens I'll be well prepared with zero debts and a few bob saved.

Fair play.

But I wonder how many have quickly forgotten that only 5 or 6 years ago this country was still in bad way.

You would wonder will it be very Same learn from when the next recession hits us in next couple of years

engiweirdo

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Waterford??

Are you mad, the ida Park has numerous massive pharmaceutical factories etc been built, its booming.

lol. You haven't actually been to Waterford in a while have you?

One, one pharma plant has been built; West Pharma and hasnt come close to the "projected jobs" announced to such fanfare.

In the meantime, how's Cork, Galway for ecample getting on?

JJJJNR

We're coming to the end of the cycle now, one more year of economic growth and it will break the record of longest period of growth. Won't happen though.

Loves_lorries

JJJJNR wrote: »

We're coming to the end of the cycle now, one more year of economic growth and it will break the record of longest period of growth. Won't happen though.

I'd have thought we had longer periods of growth in the past, is growth since 2013 such an impressive run?

The level is but is the duration anyway special.

Franz Von Peppercorn

The 9% isn’t appearing in my paycheck.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Loves_lorries wrote: »

I'd have thought we had longer periods of growth in the past, is growth since 2013 such an impressive run?

The level is but is the duration anyway special.

Yes we did. Decades in fact but it was slooow growth.

listermint

topper75 wrote: »

Something to do with a free Britain moving its corpo tax downwards with nobody looking over their shoulder.

This is going to hurt and there is nothing we can do but ask the remaining euro-partners to cut us some slack.

Most of the multis here are quite footloose.

You could make a right funny thread on here though by posting a comparative table of growth predictions Vs. actual results.
Might be hard getting hands on historical predictions - they are probably all deleted :-)

Doesn't matter what the UK do.if they aren't given access to the EU market then they won't be getting any multinationals.

More fool them.

Zebra3

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What alternative economic theory would you suggest we pursue? Back of a fag packet sort of stuff.

One that involves creating a fair society.

Some people seem so obsessed with the economy as if it’s the be all and end all.

SEPT 23 1989

No borrowings no debts eyes wide open from the last time

Give it another year heavily involved in construction so I have a six month warning before the next big one

Don't buy anything now you can't afford if you were to lose your job

Wheeliebin30

engiweirdo wrote: »

lol. You haven't actually been to Waterford in a while have you?

One, one pharma plant has been built; West Pharma and hasnt come close to the "projected jobs" announced to such fanfare.

In the meantime, how's Cork, Galway for ecample getting on?

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2056878580/73

You need to get out and about mate and be positive.

That one is how many has been BUILT.

There is more under construction.

NIMAN

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I was offered a 60,000 euro loan in BOI in Wexford Street in 2007 when first came home.

When you think back to the time when country was going crazy

One of the stand out moments of the old boom for me was a girl in the audience on one of RTEs shows (maybe Prime Time?) when they were analyzing the crash, she said she had got a mortgage that was 13x her salary.

Now I know that maybe she did a bit of fiddling the figures herself, but even with some bluffing, the bank must have known she was in way over her head.