Economic growth doubles to 9%

listermint

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I was offered a 60,000 euro loan in BOI in Wexford Street in 2007 when first came home.

When you think back to the time when country was going crazy

Without being funny 60k loan isnt alot. ...


On its face your comment doesn't really say Celtic tiger

listermint

NIMAN wrote: »

One of the stand out moments of the old boom for me was a girl in the audience on one of RTEs shows (maybe Prime Time?) when they were analyzing the crash, she said she had got a mortgage that was 13x her salary.

Now I know that maybe she did a bit of fiddling the figures herself, but even with some bluffing, the bank must have known she was in way over her head.

I don't doubt that. Many many had ten times their salary.

facehugger99

This time it’s different.

NIMAN

I'm just sorry I didn't buy some Dublin property in the 2008-2011 period, I could have retired now selling it to some maniacs with no sense.

lawred2

Zebra3 wrote: »

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

You'd prefer a shrinking economy?

The_Kew_Tour

listermint wrote: »

Without being funny 60k loan isnt alot. ...


On its face your comment doesn't really say Celtic tiger

No it probably isn't. But I had grand total of 4 euro 29 cent in it for 2 years while I worked and studies abroad that you kinda think maybe I might least be asked Could I pay it back

Wibbs

lawred2 wrote: »

You'd prefer a shrinking economy?

I'd prefer a sustainable one.

Jimmy.

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd prefer a sustainable one.

We need more council houses.

Franz Von Peppercorn

It’s interesting the reactions here. Like wibbs I would prefer growth of 2-3% a year and not 9%. The latter seems like a car that’s over accelerating and going out of control. Doesn’t seem to benefit most people either. There’s such an overhang from 2008 there’s no real capacity for tax cuts and they would overheat the economy anyway. My mortgage is where it was a few years ago. Renters are worse off than they were. Homelessness is up and the hospitals are a disaster.

Ace2007

Zebra3 wrote: »

One that involves creating a fair society.

Some people seem so obsessed with the economy as if it’s the be all and end all.

What is a fair society though?

road_high

jacksie66 wrote: »

I was bolloxed when everything went tits up 10 years ago. I was a nearly qualified plumber and living waaay beyond my means. Didn't help when I had banks ringing me offering me loans. Got into a mess that I'm thankful that I worked myself out of. I have zero loans now and if I want something I save for it. Even now I'm getting a few emails and calls about loans and finance. Not happening. If and when the next crash happens I'll be well prepared with zero debts and a few bob saved.

I think there's a lot more people living like this now compared to 10/12 years ago. Definitely in my peer groups this is what people are doing.

engiweirdo

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2056878580/73

You need to get out and about mate and be positive.

That one is how many has been BUILT.

There is more under construction.

There's nothing in that thread but eejits dreaming about projects that might get a block laid by 2022 if we're lucky. No way I'm trawling through 70 pages of that. Need to be more specific. Waterford is an economic cesspit and is going backwards. You'd need serious blinkers on not to see it.

Elessar

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.



We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

I think we are all in the same boat in terms of feeling that bit uneasy about the whole thing which is good to know because by contrast around 06,07 there was apartments in Bulgaria, shopping trips to New York, etc.....but id fear those government idiots making another catastrophic decision if the arse fell out overnight.

Ace2007

Deleted User wrote: »

I think we are all in the same boat in terms of feeling that bit uneasy about the whole thing which is good to know because by contrast around 06,07 there was apartments in Bulgaria, shopping trips to New York, etc.....but id fear those government idiots making another catastrophic decision if the arse fell out overnight.

This is what I don't get form all these threads about government bashing, like you do know that the government are jus the guys that deliver what the top civil servants tell them to do right?

Brian Cowan and co didn't decide themselves to give that bank guarantee 10 years ago - they were advised by top civil servants, many of whom are probably still in the same department.

I don't think people are uneasy about it to be honest, I think it's more central bank rules have meant it's harder to get a mortgage to buy the property people want in Dublin, so more people are renting, which while it pushes the cost of renting up, it means there are less people with mortgages, which is good for when the inevitable bust cycle comes round again.

c.p.w.g.w

A no deal brexit is going to mess us up for a couple of years. I find it hard to how a deal is going to be reached by march

When Brendan O'Connor comes out to tell us all again that "all the smart ballsy guys are buying up property" it will be far too late to abandon ship.

7 years of the Blueshirts, and the housing situation has only got much worse for everyone but their developer friends who continue to hold this society to ransom under a Fine Gael ideology which refuses to have the state back building houses for the poor.

Meanwhile, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, De Valera's Fianna Fáil managed to get the money to build 132,000 homes for Ireland's poorest people, clearing out large swathes of Dublin's infamous slums in the process.

Understandably, the Dev haters always recoil in disarray when this contrast is highlighted.

tobsey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

When Brendan O'Connor comes out to tell us all again that "all the smart ballsy guys are buying up property" it will be far too late to abandon ship.

7 years of the Blueshirts, and the housing situation has only got much worse for everyone but their developer friends who continue to hold this society to ransom under a Fine Gael ideology which refuses to have the state back building houses for the poor.

Meanwhile, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, De Valera's Fianna Fáil managed to get the money to build 132,000 homes for Ireland's poorest people, clearing out large swathes of Dublin's infamous slums in the process.

Understandably, the Dev haters always recoil in disarray when this contrast is highlighted.

The housing situation has got better for everyone who owns their own house, especially those who bought 2000-2009. That’s a lot of people in this country.

Those social houses became the absolute sh*tholes in our cities for which we are still paying massively in terms of crime and deprivation.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Please fasten your seatbelts!
We could well be in for another ff softlanding!

NIMAN

Deleted User wrote: »

When Brendan O'Connor comes out to tell us all again that "all the smart ballsy guys are buying up property" it will be far too late to abandon ship.

7 years of the Blueshirts, and the housing situation has only got much worse for everyone but their developer friends who continue to hold this society to ransom under a Fine Gael ideology which refuses to have the state back building houses for the poor.

Meanwhile, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, De Valera's Fianna F managed to get the money to build 132,000 homes for Ireland's poorest people, clearing out large swathes of Dublin's infamous slums in the process.

Understandably, the Dev haters always recoil in disarray when this contrast is highlighted.

amazing how FF are being held up as heroes considering their part in the 10-15yrs of Irish financial history.

Ace2007

Ace2007 wrote: »

This is what I don't get form all these threads about government bashing, like you do know that the government are jus the guys that deliver what the top civil servants tell them to do right?

Brian Cowan and co didn't decide themselves to give that bank guarantee 10 years ago - they were advised by top civil servants, many of whom are probably still in the same department.

I don't think people are uneasy about it to be honest, I think it's more central bank rules have meant it's harder to get a mortgage to buy the property people want in Dublin, so more people are renting, which while it pushes the cost of renting up, it means there are less people with mortgages, which is good for when the inevitable bust cycle comes round again.

Yes i would agree, but doesn't it alarm you even more that our elected members are mere puppets and that faceless bureaucrats are pulling the strings? Governments are voted in to lead but it seems they are just there to follow. No level of autocracy

dxhound2005

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes i would agree, but doesn't it alarm you even more that our elected members are mere puppets and that faceless bureaucrats are pulling the strings? Governments are voted in to lead but it seems they are just there to follow. No level of autocracy

Don't get alarmed, they are just workers doing their jobs. And they have faces.

Wheres Me Jumper?

NIMAN wrote: »

amazing how FF are being held up as heroes considering their part in the 10-15yrs of Irish financial history.

FF are and imho always have been economic delinquents.
you have a short memory young man. we are still living with the consequences of their disastrous 1977 ffing (one for everbody in the audience) budget!

dxhound2005

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Don't get alarmed, they are just workers doing their jobs. And they have faces.

Yes, but when they decide again the best course of action is to throw the irish people under a bus and bail out the banks when the next bubble bursts it could fúck another generation up while they still get their high paid pensionable jobs and continue the same cycle.

dxhound2005

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, but when they decide again the best course of action is to throw the irish people under a bus and bail out the banks when the next bubble bursts it could fúck another generation up while they still get their high paid pensionable jobs and continue the same cycle.

It was the politicians who decided to do a bail out the last time. They were very popular politicians who the people elected for three terms. Don't blame the workers.

PistolsAtDawn

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.



We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

I can barely afford rent let alone buy a property, to be honest I hope the arse falls out of the country as I might be able to put a roof over my head then.

All this economic growth, how come our wages don't go up significantly

dxhound2005

PistolsAtDawn wrote: »

I can barely afford rent let alone buy a property, to be honest I hope the arse falls out of the country as I might be able to put a roof over my head then.

All this economic growth, how come our wages don't go up significantly

Your unfortunate circumstances is actually a good indicator of no repeat of what happened before. Last time out you would have been given a 100% loan, even though you would not have been able to make the repayments. When the next downturn comes, this will mean there won't be any negative equity.

maninasia

engiweirdo wrote: »

I would say the reality if the figures were broken down are even more shocking. From what I can see Waterford has definitely regressed relative to the rest of the cities and smaller towns are going absolutely nowhere. Travelled the Waterford to Limerick road a couple of weeks, if ever there was a journey in Ireland to make you question "what recovery" that was it.

I'm estimating Dublin and possibly Cork have actually experienced growth in the region of 15%+ and a lot of the rest of the country continues to suffer. Keep the recovery going. (For Leo and his rich friends)

Usual begrudgery

maninasia

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The 9% isn’t appearing in my paycheck.

Get another job then.

maninasia

engiweirdo wrote: »

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2056878580/73

You need to get out and about mate and be positive.

That one is how many has been BUILT.

There is more under construction.

There's nothing in that thread but eejits dreaming about projects that might get a block laid by 2022 if we're lucky. No way I'm trawling through 70 pages of that. Need to be more specific. Waterford is an economic cesspit and is going backwards. You'd need serious blinkers on not to see it.

So you you won't actually read anything either that doesn't agree with your pre formed views.

OK then.

Franz Von Peppercorn

PistolsAtDawn wrote: »

I can barely afford rent let alone buy a property, to be honest I hope the arse falls out of the country as I might be able to put a roof over my head then.

All this economic growth, how come our wages don't go up significantly

There was a time when wages generally grew at the same rate as the economy. Not just here but everywhere.

This 9% is going to profits. The working population hasn’t increased by 9%

Franz Von Peppercorn

maninasia wrote: »

Get another job then.

It isn’t appearing in most people’s pay checks. (Why do weak minds always personalise things?)

maninasia

You are the one who personalised it.
If you can't get such an increase from current employer (common situation ) can change employer , especially as job market has picked up.

maninasia

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/robust-growth-in-macroeconomic-indicators-is-not-illusory-1.3615774?mode=amp


Total employment rose by 74,100 in the year to June, which is very strong job creation by any yardstick

NIMAN

dxhound2005 wrote: »

When the next downturn comes, this will mean there won't be any negative equity.

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

engiweirdo

maninasia wrote: »

Usual begrudgery

Get out and around outside Dublin/The extended "Pale" area much? There's a very different Ireland out there.

engiweirdo

maninasia wrote: »

So you you won't actually read anything either that doesn't agree with your pre formed views.

OK then.

Got back through 10 pages, nothing contained in any of them to back up wheeliebins "evidence" , I'm not reading 70 pages of nonsense to find some obscure he said/she said post that apparently confirms "Waterford is booming". I live here ffs, the only things experiencing growth here the last 10 years are rents and heroin use.

Zebra3

lawred2 wrote: »

You'd prefer a shrinking economy?

Where did I say that?

Zebra3

Ace2007 wrote: »

What is a fair society though?

One that allows hard working people to own their own home for starters.

One that isn’t obsessed with the “market” sorting everything out.

SEPT 23 1989

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

Some of the prices I am seeing in certain not great areas of the city are more outrageous than during the tiger

There will be negative equity

seamus

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

But that’s all we’re hearing now is spend spend spend on houses, people have very short memories.

Electorates have short memories.

Consider yourself when you were young. At what age did you really start to become aware of economics, of how government budgets and employment rates affected you, and the nuances of supply/demand/inflation/recession.

At 16? Nah. Maybe you had difficulty getting a part time job, maybe your parents gave you less pocket money.

At 18? Same, probably not much effect, though a little more awareness with your impending entry into college/working.

At 19/20/21, probably starting to kick in.

Now consider that the crash happened in 2008/2009/2010. But the factors which caused it (runaway mortgage lending and personal credit) were at their peak in 2004/5/6.

Which means there are people today who are 30 (or approaching it), who had no real awareness of the last crash. They didn't see the crazy boom times leading up to it, and the abandonment of financial prudence that was everywhere. Because they were only children at the time.

Which makes them doomed to make the same mistakes without external intervention.

Ace2007

Zebra3 wrote: »

One that allows hard working people to own their own home for starters.

One that isn’t obsessed with the “market” sorting everything out.

But why do they have to own their own home? You do realise this is a luxury in many part of Europe - owning a house isn’t the norm, hence when the crash came it affected Ireland worse.

This perception that you have to buy a house is then reason why so many people got into so much debt - they bought because everyone told them too.

dxhound2005

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

I have to disagree with that. Negative equity was not a feature of any previous recessions. Because there were proper lending rules, which I get the impression are now restored. If people are paying out mad money, it is not being funded by 100% loans, and their asset will not go into negative equity.

Ace2007

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

But the majority of people who buy a house worth 400k+ are doin so with the intention of it being their life long home and therefore it doesn’t matter if they are in NE after the crash as they they never planned on selling anyway.

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

Jimmy.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the majority of people who buy a house worth 400k+ are doin so with the intention of it being their life long home and therefore it doesn’t matter if they are in NE after the crash as they they never planned on selling anyway.

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

You got to consider many won’t be buying these homes. They are free council houses. 400k they wouldn’t have €4.

6541

I think Brexit is over-hyped crap - the deal is probably already done in a back room somewhere.

Wibbs

Asset prices rise and fall during the business cycle, this isn't a revelation, it's been happening for thousands of years.

Not at the consistent pace of the last 50 years.

What made the fall of the last business cycle different is that it was also the end of the long term debt cycle which lasts about 70 years.

There was a downward correction of the long term debt cycle, but it levelled out and continues to expand.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But why do they have to own their own home? You do realise this is a luxury in many part of Europe - owning a house isn’t the norm, hence when the crash came it affected Ireland worse.

True, but the Irish market is different to others in Europe. Renters are less protected for a start and as we've seen rents can go nuts. It's a far more precarious feeling position for Irish people. Owning your own home, at least aiming to do so with each mortgage payment feels much more secure.

Ace2007 wrote: »

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

Maybe - and I realise other factors were in play in the "Tiger" - but people who bought a house between 1996 and 2006 were also in positive equity, in many cases serious positive equity and they mostly weren't rushing to sell either. They were rushing to buy, but that was the major factor in the last screwup.

That said on my travels in Dublin anyway I see a fair number of For Sale, Sale agreed and Sold signage going on. Something that was definitely much lower in the Bust. I also see far more house remodelling going on, even compared to the Boom. The latter being more in play I suppose because in the Boom scaling up was easier to do by buying somewhere bigger, somewhere else, rather than today where mortgages are harder gotten, but house improvement loans easier gotten. Better deal for the banks too as you're paying off an extra loan to improve what remains mostly their asset until the last mortgage payment.

lawred2

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd prefer a sustainable one.

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Wibbs

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Good question. Difficult one too. I suppose off the top of my head... Lower world population. More sustainability in goods. Reduction in the turnover churn of consumerism. Some way - and I dunno how at this stage TBH - some way to deinsentivise glorified betting in the financial world on this churn and boom/bust cycle. The Money™ drives much of it.

seamus

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Regulatory measures to curb, even punish speculatory activities.

People who buy stuff just to watch it increase in value are a pox on modern economies, and the main driver of boom/bust cycles.

Investment is good, lending is good. It fuels onward growth.

Purchasing "stuff" on the basis that you expect it to become scarce, or in order to make it more scarce, sucks money out of the general economy into private bank accounts.

We're at the stage where a small number of individuals have the resources to manipulate national or even global economies through asset speculation, and we need to push back and limit their power.

RobertKK

Back in 2016 only 6 counties were net contributors to the exchequer: Dublin, Cork, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare and Kilkenny.