Recession predictions

Tea drinker

Healy_Rayban wrote: »

Just want to give my input. Things are not bad out there at all.

I can't give details on it but I can assure you some of the major employers have lots of potential for cuts in the next year if this continues.

You need to elaborate a bit more than my tea leaves did this morning

Healy_Rayban

Tea drinker wrote: »

You need to elaborate a bit more than my tea leaves did this morning

Let's just say, the big employers are benefitting from this pandemic as employees working from home means less costs.

Wanderer78

Healy_Rayban wrote: »

Let's just say, the big employers are benefitting from this pandemic as employees working from home means less costs.

big employers are nearly always winning, its set up for them to win, even when everyone else is losing

c.p.w.g.w

Well a multinational my misses works at...had let folks off temporarily during CoVid19, have rehired them all and are hiring new staff as well as launching a new product (not regeneron before folks ask)

Wanderer78

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Well a multinational my misses works at...had let folks off temporarily during CoVid19, have rehired them all and are hiring new staff as well as launching a new product (not regeneron before folks ask)

...so gained by breaking employment contracts, and probably loads of other gains....

Timing belt

It looks like there will be another round of central bank announcements to stimulate economies. The US market has already priced this in and it looks like the UK are going to go with negative rates.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/12/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rate-borrowing

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

It looks like there will be another round of central bank announcements to stimulate economies. The US market has already priced this in and it looks like the UK are going to go with negative rates.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/12/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rate-borrowing

...should work well, for asset markets!

Tea drinker

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...should work well, for asset markets!

Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?

Fuascailteoir

Tea drinker wrote: »

Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?

Pole dancers

Timing belt

Tea drinker wrote: »

Picking my head up off the table, what would you throw 10K at if you could (reasonably) afford to lose it?

Prize Bonds :-) No if I was not afraid to lose it then I would probably buy airline shares as they are rock bottom and its not like people are going to stop flying when covid is over. But there is a big risk that the airline goes bankrupt in the meantime.

EDIT: Actually I think I would short Apple (or Tech stock) as their share price is not justified at the moment. A 53% increase since 31/12/2019 its not like they have released a new life changing product and yes they may sell more iPhone with stimulus cheques in America but I am still not buying it and think there is a bubble here waiting to be popped and all that is happening is the money from the QE is creating the bubble just like it what happened with the dot.com bubble. (e.g. Fed Cut rates which helped generate the bubble)

How it will be popped not to sure but if you look at the top shareholders they are all funds/investment banks so if there are significant losses in these sectors they may need to sell off equities in a fire sale leading to a crash in the Stock market.

Darc19

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...so gained by breaking employment contracts, and probably loads of other gains....

The negative ninnies just hate positive news.

Where I work staff numbers are up considerably this year and further recruitment is expected before Christmas.

Same in many competitors.

Darc19

Tea drinker wrote: »

Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

41,000 mortgage holders are in arrears of 90 days or more (not including any on covid breaks)

Over 10,000 are over 3 years in arrears.

YOU are paying for their free living and all the legal costs associated with it.


In countries where mortgage rates are 1.5% a house is automatically repossessed after 3-6 months and new owners in situ a couple of months later if you don't agree and keep to new terms.

KyussB

If bankers had it their way, we'd have a foreclosure crisis like in the US, where mass fraud was used to illegally repossess peoples homes. The more difficult it is to repossess, and prolonged the process is (to maximize chances of debtors returning to servicing), the better.

Assets tied to mortgages don't just disappear - their value is covered. What is missed out on is the interest - and the interest from 10k or even 40k people, is tiny...(and doesn't just disappear either, unless a peson defaults fully)

Wanderer78

Darc19 wrote:

The negative ninnies just hate positive news.

More like a realist, we can't keep encouraging this precariousness, it's lethal for society and our economy, it's also causing serious issues with our pension funds, so its actually affecting us all

Darc19 wrote:

41,000 mortgage holders are in arrears of 90 days or more (not including any on covid breaks)

Thank God we ve an accommodation back up plan in place, if such a situation of repossessions takes place! I wonder does our current 'back up plan' cost the tax payers much, hardly!

Creditors hardly play any part in all of this, do they!

Wanderer78

Tea drinker wrote:

Meanwhile we get shafted with mortgage rate, and soon to be charged negative rates on deposit :-)

I like the idea of dual rates, but it's a radical idea and central banks prefer plain vanilla policies, so......

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I like the idea of dual rates, but it's a radical idea and central banks prefer plain vanilla policies, so......

What do you mean by dual rate?

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

What do you mean by dual rate?

The idea is, central banks can run two different rates simultaneously, for example, positive on deposits, negative on credit, probably won't happen though, but it is being knocked around, Eric lonergan is talking about it at the moment, said it's doable, but.....

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The idea is, central banks can run two different rates simultaneously, for example, positive on deposits, negative on credit, probably won't happen though, but it is being knocked around, Eric lonergan is talking about it at the moment, said it's doable, but.....

I don't get it.... what benefit would it bring

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

I don't get it.... what benefit would it bring

I'd imagine depositors are well pi$$ed off with current rates, I know I am, but central banks are trying to stimulate economies with ever reducing rates, hence shafting depositors, but if they introduced dual rates, they might break our current cycle, probably won't happen though

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'd imagine depositors are well pi$$ed off with current rates, I know I am, but central banks are trying to stimulate economies with ever reducing rates, hence shafting depositors, but if they introduced dual rates, they might break our current cycle, probably won't happen though

Rates are low (soon to be negative) for retail customer deposits to encourage people to spend the cash and stimulate the economy.

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

Rates are low (soon to be negative) for retail customer deposits to encourage people to spend the cash and stimulate the economy.

Why do people save, and why are people currently increasing their savings?

howamidifferent

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Why do people save, and why are people currently increasing their savings?

To prepare for financial armegeddon?

Wanderer78

howamidifferent wrote: »

To prepare for financial armegeddon?

well armageddon is a little too strong of a word, but people increase savings because of rising uncertainty, increasing possibility of job loss etc, its a human behavioural reaction, and its normal, but a far from easy one to resolve, but our current economic thinking is not open to this reality, and our political system is currently defaulting to the norm in its thinking for a resolution, i.e. encourage spending and borrowing, particularly in the private domain!

wassie

KyussB wrote: »

If bankers had it their way, we'd have a foreclosure crisis like in the US, where mass fraud was used to illegally repossess peoples homes. The more difficult it is to repossess, and prolonged the process is (to maximize chances of debtors returning to servicing), the better.

Assets tied to mortgages don't just disappear - their value is covered. What is missed out on is the interest - and the interest from 10k or even 40k people, is tiny...(and doesn't just disappear either, unless a peson defaults fully)

I don't think anyone here is advocating a US style non-recourse home loan system here.

It well acknowledged that the inability to repossess houses in Ireland where homeowners are strategically defaulting comes at a real cost to the rest of us in the form of higher interest rates.

Wanderer78

wassie wrote:

It well acknowledged that the inability to repossess houses in Ireland where homeowners are strategically defaulting comes at a real cost to the rest of us in the form of higher interest rates.

All very true, but do we have an actual backup stock of accommodation available for these people?

Darc19

Wanderer78 wrote: »

All very true, but do we have an actual backup stock of accommodation available for these people?

What you are forgetting is that most of these could easily pay a good amount, but they decide to pay absolutely nothing compliments of other mortgage holders.

For some you’ll see nice cars in their driveway and all the mod cons possible because they can avoid paying the mortgage.


Very few would actually be entitled to council homes and remember, the homes get bought by others, they don't just disappear

Wanderer78

Darc19 wrote: »

What you are forgetting is that most of these could easily pay a good amount, but they decide to pay absolutely nothing compliments of other mortgage holders.

For some you’ll see nice cars in their driveway and all the mod cons possible because they can avoid paying the mortgage.


Very few would actually be entitled to council homes and remember, the homes get bought by others, they don't just disappear

all on tick (credit), id imagine, at what stage do we question the financial sector, for reckless lending? 'behind every bad borrower, is a bad lender'!

so, if you reposes, what do you do with the reposesed? not only dont buildings disappear, either do the people! temporarily(permanently) 'accommodating' them, seems to costing you a fortune, over the last few years!

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Why do people save, and why are people currently increasing their savings?

Yes people save money and put off large purchases when they are unsure of the future. All this does is lead to deflation which has a loop back cycle which leads to more QE and the asset bubble getting bigger.

If the public do not have confidence in the future of the economy and their job security they won't spend. The majority of the QE that is being undertaken is not leading to Job growth or to improving infrastructure and all it is leading to is an increase in asset prices so people will continue to save money. The only time that this will change is when negative rates start being passed onto retail customers who will spend the money rather than leave it in the bank.

When this happens we will see inflation and this will need to be managed very carefully otherwise we will see a increase in gov bond yield and countries struggling to finance their sovereign debt as it rolls over onto higher yields.

brisan

Darc19 wrote: »

The negative ninnies just hate positive news.

Where I work staff numbers are up considerably this year and further recruitment is expected before Christmas.

Same in many competitors.

Tell that to those in the hospitality and retail sector .
I am sure they will be glad
Heading for record unemployment
14.7 % according to the CSO

brisan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

All very true, but do we have an actual backup stock of accommodation available for these people?

I am sure they can rent