Second hand diesel cars slow to sell

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

So is smoking, if the government really gave a dam they'd be banned. They don't so they just up the tax on them, they don't care. It's all about the economy.

Smoking is a personal decision. Breathing car fumes is not.

The Bishop Basher

ednwireland wrote: »

still 6 to 9k more than i have in the bank to get a car (i dont borrow money to buy cars)

I've noticed this quite a bit on boards..

EV owners are are very quick to call out how much they're saving but omit the cost of buying a new or nearly new car.

Then they think we all want to drive micra's with batteries.

No thanks..

I'll take my old 535d or my current ttid over a leaf any day..

When I can buy a used Tesla for less then 2 grand I may consider it.

Until then i'll continue to enjoy my diesels with zero guilt..

drunkmonkey

VW Diesel sales up last year in Germany, strong yoy growth. Don't be under any illusion diesel is dead as long as we're only looking at co2 for taxation.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/01/20190130-vwdiesel.html

ELM327

Rennaws wrote: »

I've noticed this quite a bit on boards..

EV owners are are very quick to call out how much they're saving but omit the cost of buying a new or nearly new car.

Then they think we all want to drive micra's with batteries.

No thanks..

I'll take my old 535d or my current ttid over a leaf any day..

When I can buy a used Tesla for less then 2 grand I may consider it.

Until then i'll continue to enjoy my diesels with zero guilt..

You will never buy a used tesla for anything near 2 grand.
The residual value of the battery inside a tesla will always be worth many multiples of your 2k.


I used to have an e61 535d, lovely cars but you'd never get one for 2 grand either so I don't know where you're pulling the 2 grand from.

The Bishop Basher

ELM327 wrote: »

You will never buy a used tesla for anything near 2 grand.
The residual value of the battery inside a tesla will always be worth many multiples of your 2k.

Then i'll keep driving diesels

ELM327 wrote: »

I used to have an e61 535d, lovely cars but you'd never get one for 2 grand either so I don't know where you're pulling the 2 grand from.

I never said I got a 535d for €2k but my current car, a 2008 Saab 93 Aero 1.9 ttid cost me just under €2k and I wouldn't swap it for anything..

And certainly not a Leaf..

ELM327

And the great thing is, no one will ever force you to do otherwise!

It will get progressively and incrementally more expensive to drive a diesel, just like it did and does for petrols too. Especially proper large engined ones like lazy V8s

But if you're happy to pay for the privilege you will be able to drive diesels for decades. Just like you could drive a V8 petrol today.

KCross

Rennaws wrote: »

I've noticed this quite a bit on boards..

EV owners are are very quick to call out how much they're saving but omit the cost of buying a new or nearly new car.

Then they think we all want to drive micra's with batteries.

No thanks..

I'll take my old 535d or my current ttid over a leaf any day..

When I can buy a used Tesla for less then 2 grand I may consider it.

Until then i'll continue to enjoy my diesels with zero guilt..

Bangernomics shouldnt be compared to buying a new EV as they havent reached that level yet.
Anyone driving a €2k car and then spending €30k to save money needs an economics lesson.

If you normally have a fairly new car and its time to upgrade you should look at EV. If you are always in the €2k bracket then you have to wait.

One exception... if you are doing alot of miles or repairs on your €2k car then a €10k EV now might save you money in the long run. Run the numbers.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

VW Diesel sales up last year in Germany, strong yoy growth. Don't be under any illusion diesel is dead as long as we're only looking at co2 for taxation.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/01/20190130-vwdiesel.html

The opposite is true in Ireland. Diesel is down 20% YoY and petrol is up 20%.

I agree that diesel is a long way off from disappearing though.


Do you have the refinery stats that you mentioned ... post those please otherwise I'll have to assume you're part of the fake news brigade!

drunkmonkey

KCross wrote: »

The opposite is true in Ireland. Diesel is down 20% YoY and petrol is up 20%.

I agree that diesel is a long way off from disappearing though.


Do you have the refinery stats that you mentioned ... post those please otherwise I'll have to assume you're part of the fake news brigade!

The stats are all over the Google on output.

New Diesel cars are down but diesel imports are up. You couldn't buy one here, bumb spec and way over priced.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The stats are all over the Google on output.

Can you post them because most of what I get back is talking about fossil fuel decline. I dont see anything that supports your assertion that diesel is on the rise.
It has obviously risen sharply upto the last few years but it looks like reversing now.

e.g. This one talks about how we have excess petrol in the EU and not enough diesel so we have to import it but overall diesel use is not rising (see Fig 7, pg 15)
https://www.fuelseurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/20170704-Graphs_FUELS_EUROPE-_2017_WEBFILE-1.pdf

I dont know how accurate that report is or what the source is but it doesnt support your assertion of

"No I was on about what's coming from refinerys. It's all mainly diesel and the outlook is diesel will keep growing. "

What refinery data do you have? What outlook data are you reading? Can you share it to give balance please?

drunkmonkey wrote: »

New Diesel cars are down but diesel imports are up.

Diesel imports are up but imports in general are up. As an overall percentage the diesel imports are down relative to 2017. Its still the majority(75%) but the trend is not in the direction you are suggesting.

New diesels went down from 85k in 2017 to 68k in 2018.
Thast a significant drop of 20% in one year when the overall market only declined 4%.


Take a look at the stats:
https://stats.beepbeep.ie

colm_mcm

Any links to ridiculously cheap 3-5 year old diesels please?

bazz26

colm_mcm wrote: »

Any links to ridiculously cheap 3-5 year old diesels please?

Still waiting for the ridiculously cheap/worthless VW diesels predicted too when the diesel gate scandal broke a few years back.

KCross

bazz26 wrote: »

Still waiting for the ridiculously cheap/worthless VW diesels predicted too when the diesel gate scandal broke a few years back.

Indeed, still the #1 seller in the country so dieselgate doesnt appear to have affected the brand at all.

Although within VW, diesel is down 19% and petrol is up 40% when you compare 2018 (56.89% diesel, 42.32% petrol)) to 2017 (69.60% diesel, 30.20% petrol).

The gap is closing fast.

bazz26

KCross wrote: »

Indeed, still the #1 seller in the country so dieselgate doesnt appear to have affected the brand at all.

Although within VW, diesel is down 19% and petrol is up 40% when you compare 2018 (56.89% diesel, 42.32% petrol)) to 2017 (69.60% diesel, 30.20% petrol).

The gap is closing fast.

Manufacturers are also now offering more alternatives to oil burners which they didn't do before. People who should never have been driving diesels to begin with now have a wider choice in alternatives. That certainly has a bearing on the figures too.

KCross

And its even more startling in the UK...

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

2017 = 1,065,942 diesel - 1,357,782 petrol
2018 = 750,165 diesel - 1,475,712

Diesel down 30% YoY, Petrol up 8.7% and petrol was interestingly already outselling diesel in the UK anyway.

Diesel looks like its in freefall over there.

bazz26

It was bound to happen. Diesel fuel is more expensive than petrol and congestion charges, parking surcharges, etc are on the rise there. Even company car tax for diesel drivers is on the rise. The Tories have started to screw over the UK diesel driver.

KCross

bazz26 wrote: »

It was bound to happen. Diesel fuel is more expensive than petrol and congestion charges, parking surcharges, etc are on the rise there. Even company car tax for diesel drivers is on the rise. The Tories have started to screw over the UK diesel driver.

You are probably right. Its going to happen here too. Anything UK does we follow shortly after.

We were lucky there was no carbon tax in the last budget. Purely a political decision. I dont think that bullet will be dodged this year.

drunkmonkey

They have to be careful, fuel prices could rise even without carbon tax. Remember this isn't about raising taxes it's changing behaviour. Manufacturers are changing so maybe Leo & Co might take it easy on us.

bazz26

I'm sure they are studying new ways of how they are going to tax EVs as a long term replacement for ICE vehicles so that the revenue stream is sustained because one thing is certain, it doesn't matter what type of fuel propels your car, the motorist will be taxed for owning it as well and running it.

Wildly Boaring

bazz26 wrote: »

I'm sure they are studying new ways of how they are going to tax EVs as a long term replacement for ICE vehicles so that the revenue stream is sustained because one thing is certain, it doesn't matter what type of fuel propels your car, the motorist will be taxed for owning it as well and running it.

That's a fact.
They will look to get people over to EV and .... smash

monkeysnapper

My commute is very short but I have 3 kids , the Mrs and 2 dogs . So about a year ago I thought about getting a Nissan leaf , I had 10k budget , straight up cash buy . But my problem was we travel over to UK twice a year .....

So..... I changed that plan for a petrol estate... I found it nearly an impossible mission , ok there were dacia logans and the od old passat .

I ended up biting bullet and ended up with another diesel..

Got a 132 Hyundai i40 estate for 7k . ... not to sure how good a deal I got but I just got fed up driving over to Wales with family in a 14 year old citroen just waiting for it to break down.

drunkmonkey

KCross wrote: »

And its even more startling in the UK...

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

2017 = 1,065,942 diesel - 1,357,782 petrol
2018 = 750,165 diesel - 1,475,712

Diesel down 30% YoY, Petrol up 8.7% and petrol was interestingly already outselling diesel in the UK anyway.

Diesel looks like its in freefall over there.

It's too small a timeline to assume it's a trend. Your not taking into account the Brexit effect either. Trucks, Vans, Buses are are all down considerably as well which points to a slow down in the economy in general, diesel fuels the economy so only natural it's down.

The big take away from the stats though is the tiny rise in EV's, registration, only 600 extra EV's registered in 2018 bringing it to a total of about 1500 EV's for the year. It's nothing and at those rates it never will be.

pwurple

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

That's a fact.
They will look to get people over to EV and .... smash

I'm sure they will. Meanwhile, I'm benefitting from 4 years of EV driving with f all tax and no fuel costs.

You suckers hanging out are really prolonging my savings. Thanks!

The Bishop Basher

pwurple wrote: »

I'm sure they will. Meanwhile, I'm benefitting from 4 years of EV driving with f all tax and no fuel costs.

You took out a loan to buy it. You’ve paid far more in a year of ownership of that car then I would pay in 3 years of ownership of a second hand diesel.

And that’s before we get to the crap choice of EV’s and the hassle of trying to go more then 100km in one.

pwurple wrote: »

You suckers hanging out are really prolonging my savings. Thanks!

You suckers taking out car loans to buy new cars are really subsidizing my future purchases. Thanks !!

colm_mcm

What about suckers who don’t take out loans?

drunkmonkey

pwurple wrote: »

You suckers hanging out are really prolonging my savings. Thanks!

What savings have you made besides fuel? The EV costs more to buy and is worth less second hand. If you've clocked up 80,000km that would make up for the high upfront cost but it doesn't make up for the depreciation. Interesting to know what you actually saved when all is said and done.

rn

Part of the solution has to be equalisation on fuel tax, and I mean it should go up. All emissions are bad. Fuel tax is too low. We have to get off this carbon based tax system as well. I'd be more in favour of a progressive sliding scale, with mixed emissions. More expensive luxury cars should attract more tax. The greens got it so wrong when in power.

I would do something to try and keep fuel low for hauliers and buses either through a rebate scheme or allow them use green diesel.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's too small a timeline to assume it's a trend. Your not taking into account the Brexit effect either. Trucks, Vans, Buses are are all down considerably as well which points to a slow down in the economy in general, diesel fuels the economy so only natural it's down.

But I thought you said diesel was trending up, notwithstanding Brexit...hmm?

You can interpret the stats any which way you like.

But a 30% decline in diesel in one year when at the same time petrol went up is clear enough to me. That was also on the back of a decline the previous year as well.

I'm still confused how you came up with the idea that diesel is on the rise. The stats clearly dont support it... trend or no trend.

Now, if you provided some references I'm open to be convinced.

Just to re-iterate, I dont think diesel is going anywhere. Its going to be with us for a long time but its on the decline as far as I can see in both UK and Ireland.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The big take away from the stats though is the tiny rise in EV's, registration, only 600 extra EV's registered in 2018 bringing it to a total of about 1500 EV's for the year. It's nothing and at those rates it never will be.

What country are you referring to there?

You are right though, uptake is very slow. There simply isnt enough choice and of the ones that are on the market the volume is low except for the Leaf.... 5 door hatchbacks isnt what the market is looking for and that is coming through quite clearly in the Jan 2019 figures where they have already sold 800 EV's (vs 100 in 2018) because the Kona was available and is the style of car that the market desires. So, 1200 in total in 2018 and 800 in Jan 2019.... thats a big increase but obviously still tiny in the overall market.

Basically, the demand is there.... the cars arent.
It will take a long time to get to 10% penetration not to mind 20% as a result.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What savings have you made besides fuel? The EV costs more to buy and is worth less second hand. If you've clocked up 80,000km that would make up for the high upfront cost but it doesn't make up for the depreciation. Interesting to know what you actually saved when all is said and done.

Whats that based on?
I dont think the market agrees with you. Any data to share on that?

pwurple

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What savings have you made besides fuel? The EV costs more to buy and is worth less second hand. If you've clocked up 80,000km that would make up for the high upfront cost but it doesn't make up for the depreciation. Interesting to know what you actually saved when all is said and done.

It was a gamble at the time, but seems to have paid off.
Fuel is a big one. I was spending 50 quid a week on petrol. I charge at work, zero cost there. So, that's ~200 a month.

Tax. My tax was ~700. Dropped to 120 per year.
Insurance. Dropped 20%.
Parking. Parking in Cork is free for EVs, I used to spend €10-20 per week.
Tolls, for the first 2 years tolls were free.
Servicing. 1st service cost 60 quid, second and subsequent cost 120.

I've done 65000km.

I took a car loan out in 2015 when I bought it, for 300 a month. The savings covered it, pretty much, so I overpaid and cleared that faster. Loan is long paid off, the car is still saving me the same money every month and worth ~12k. There's no wear and tear, the battery is same efficiency as when it rolled off the boat. I'll keep it another ten+ years at this rate. Nothing wrong with it at the moment. Maybe teach my kids to drive in it when they're old enough. There's no engine wear in an electric motor. No spark plugs, any of that stuff.

It's the reason we changed our other car and bought a second one last year. These things are money in the bank.


Just to add it up for you guys... the car cost me 18000 new (there was a subsidy for EVs, think that's still there)
It saved me between 4000 and 4500 per year, meaning it's completely paid for itself in 4 years, and is still worth 12000. That's not too bad.

drunkmonkey

KCross wrote: »

Whats that based on?
I dont think the market agrees with you. Any data to share on that?

Here you go with the data again, i'm not your lap dog, go do your research.

The No1 depreciating car on the planet is the Nissan Leaf.

Squidgy Black

KCross wrote: »

Whats that based on?
I dont think the market agrees with you. Any data to share on that?

As more battery advances come along (longer ranges and efficiency etc) older models will take a massive hit in value. Even with the launch of the new 40kwh leaf the old 24kwh ones will become hard to shift.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Here you go with the data again, i'm not your lap dog, go do your research.

The No1 depreciating car on the planet is the Nissan Leaf.

No its not.
You're entitled to your opinion. You're not entitled to your own facts. Its fair game to ask you to backup your statement if you present it as a fact.

I've seen one study of depreciation from the UK which took the RRP price of the Leaf as its OTR price and then compared them on the secondhand market... what they didnt do is look at what people were actually paying for the cars.... no one pays RRP for a Leaf in the UK.... they get thousands off so it made it look like a worse depreciator that it actually is.

All due repsect, you need to do some more research of your own.

Squidgy Black wrote: »

As more battery advances come along (longer ranges and efficiency etc) older models will take a massive hit in value. Even with the launch of the new 40kwh leaf the old 24kwh ones will become hard to shift.

The question is will they depreciate more than an existing ICE car when a new model of those comes out?

The current EV market is very strong price wise so what you are saying is not holding true at all.

The 40kWh Leaf is out 12 months now. The 30kWh was out since 2016.... 24kWh prices are barely going down.... the market does not support the claim that depreciation is high.

It was in the early days when there was zero trust of the batteries. Times have changed.

drunkmonkey

pwurple wrote: »

Just to add it up for you guys... the car cost me 18000 new (there was a subsidy for EVs, think that's still there)
It saved me between 4000 and 4500 per year, meaning it's completely paid for itself in 4 years, and is still worth 12000. That's not too bad.

The fuel savings are huge but what EV only depreciates so little? Only losing 6k in 4yrs seems unbelievable.

ELM327

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Here you go with the data again, i'm not your lap dog, go do your research.

The No1 depreciating car on the planet is the Nissan Leaf.

The least depreciating car is a Tesla Model S, according to a recent study.
They are both EVs. What's your point?

drunkmonkey

KCross wrote: »

No its not.
You're entitled to your opinion. You're not entitled to your own facts. Its fair game to ask you to backup your statement if you present it as a fact.

I've seen one study of depreciation from the UK which took the RRP price of the Leaf as its OTR price and then compared them on the secondhand market... what they didnt do is look at what people were actually paying for the cars.... no one pays RRP for a Leaf in the UK.... they get thousands off so it made it look like a worse depreciator that it actually is.

All due repsect, you need to do some more research of your own.




The question is will they depreciate more than an existing ICE car when a new model of those comes out?

The current EV market is very strong price wise so what you are saying is not holding true at all.

The 40kWh Leaf is out 12 months now. The 30kWh was out since 2016.... 24kWh prices are barely going down.... the market does not support the claim that depreciation is high.

It was in the early days when there was zero trust of the batteries. Times have changed.

Your fully fledged data nuts, you go look up the data in one country and claim the data is fudged, it must also be fudged in the globally as well. With all cars they take the RRP when looking at depreciation nobody is picking on the leaf, it's comparing like for like.
You've yourself fully convinced your correct so no data is going to change that if it doesn't agree with your hunch you can't back up with any data.

Are you seriously trying to convince anyone the leaf is good at retaining it's value.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Your fully fledged data nuts, you go look up the data in one country and claim the data is fudged, it must also be fudged in the globally as well. With all cars they take the RRP when looking at depreciation nobody is picking on the leaf, it's comparing like for like.
You've yourself fully convinced your correct so no data is going to change that if it doesn't agree with your hunch you can't back up with any data.

Are you seriously trying to convince anyone the leaf is good at retaining it's value.

I am yea....
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109314075&postcount=347

drunkmonkey

ELM327 wrote: »

The least depreciating car is a Tesla Model S, according to a recent study.
They are both EVs. What's your point?

Aging cherry picking data, one particular model s holds it's value. It's still eye watering depreciation and with new EV's on the way that depreciation is set to accelerate over the next 24mts.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Aging cherry picking data, one particular model s holds it's value. It's still eye watering depreciation and with new EV's on the way that depreciation is set to accelerate over the next 24mts.

It is of course just one example but its indicative of the market here and in the UK over the last few years.

If you read this forum you'll see that repeated.
If you have been looking at EV prices yourself you'd also see that.

You've probably read some **** journalistic anti-EV article and decided that thats good enough for you.... i'm working off my own experience.

I'll let you at it. Its clear you dont have anything to backup your statements so everyione can make up their own mind. The market doesnt lie.

ELM327

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Aging cherry picking data, one particular model s holds it's value. It's still eye watering depreciation and with new EV's on the way that depreciation is set to accelerate over the next 24mts.

You cherry picked the leaf, I cherry picked the Tesla.


In the last 24months used EVs have gone up in price and not down.

drunkmonkey

I'll take fifty.

pwurple

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The fuel savings are huge but what EV only depreciates so little? Only losing 6k in 4yrs seems unbelievable.

I mentioned the 5k subsidy for EVs didn't I? The list price of that car was 23k. I paid 18.

It's a leaf, current resale value is 12k. You can go ahead and look it up. I checked recently enough.


Anyway, happy enough. That choice to change approach has given me an effective net 4,000 euro raise... in terms of additional spending power in my pocket. 8000 pre-tax if you're in that range. No associated debt. Can't complain.

Renegade Mechanic

KevinCavan wrote: »

In the motor section of the Sunday Independent yesterday, they said second hand diesels were getting harder for garages to sell, especially in Dublin. Is this a growing trend. Are hybrids, electrics and turbo charged smaller petrol engines the way forward?

They're getting harder to sell because this is Ireland. And the Irish only sell something, when something is about to go. People are finally waking up to that and leaving them with their Crouching Turbo Hidden DPF, four year fuel filter **** heaps....

Newer petrols will be more reliable, but ultimately still complex enough for trouble..
Having the injectors mounted directly into the cylinder head means the intake valves no longer have an air/fuel mix keeping them clean of the oil-then carbon deposits of the PCV system.
It may well prove to render these petrols almost as unsuitable to small city driving as the diesels they're aiming at....

Thankfully there's a troop of petrols with no turbos, manifold-mounted fuel injection and hydraulically adjusted inlet/exhaust cams taking up some of the slack of the missing turbo - they'll be ideal small drivers.

I feel like I'm digressing..

Eric Cartman

vectra wrote: »

Just wondering where all these second hand petrol car are suddenly appearing from given the fact hardly any have been sold since 2008 ??

a lot of jap imports , have seen a load of hybrid models that were never sold here, UK imports of higher end luxury motors too.

Every second prius taxi in the city seems to be a jap import, with the instruments still in Japanese.

Squidgy Black

vectra wrote: »

Just wondering where all these second hand petrol car are suddenly appearing from given the fact hardly any have been sold since 2008 ??

Been looking at petrol hatchbacks post 2012 myself and noticed an awful lot are dealers selling UK imports.

Still a significant amount more diesels than petrol on donedeal though

circadian

Renegade Mechanic wrote: »

They're getting harder to sell because this is Ireland. And the Irish only sell something, when something is about to go. People are finally waking up to that and leaving them with their Crouching Turbo Hidden DPF, four year fuel filter **** heaps....

Newer petrols will be more reliable, but ultimately still complex enough for trouble..
Having the injectors mounted directly into the cylinder head means the intake valves no longer have an air/fuel mix keeping them clean of the oil-then carbon deposits of the PCV system.
It may well prove to render these petrols almost as unsuitable to small city driving as the diesels they're aiming at....

Thankfully there's a troop of petrols with no turbos, manifold-mounted fuel injection and hydraulically adjusted inlet/exhaust cams taking up some of the slack of the missing turbo - they'll be ideal small drivers.

I feel like I'm digressing..

Mazda's new Skyactiv-X engine should be interesting but I agree with you on complexity.

Renegade Mechanic

circadian wrote: »

Mazda's new Skyactiv-X engine should be interesting but I agree with you on complexity.

It confuses me slightly.. It's supposed to be the first commercially available compression-ignition petrol engine. But...

"In order to handle ignition problems caused by compression ignition, each cylinder also incorporates a spark plug featuring Spark Controlled Compression Ignition (SPCCI) technology."

So have they not just simply taken a direct injection petrol engine and figured out how to increase the compression ratio without suffering from pre-ignition? It's still impressive, should always aim for higher compression, but it's admittedly a lot less exciting sounding...