Kona 2018 predictions

TriFirst

Only a few days to go till this years race my bet is on Sebastien Kienle to win the men's race and Daniela Ryf to win the womens, any takers ?

TriFirst

Forgot to say it'll be very interesting to see how Javier Gomez does in his first Kona, can his short course dominance translate to the longer course ?

pgibbo

There seems to be a lot of hype around Currie. I'd love to see Kienle win it but not sure he will.

Gomez, Lange & Sanders
Ryf, Charles & Rinny

Looking forward to watching it on Saturday.

Hopefully Emmet Kelly will have a good race after his pre-race accident last year. Plenty of Irish AG'ers to follow also. :cool:

joey100

I'd like to see Currie do well, no idea if he will, I don't think there is a real stand out favourite in the mens. Starky has already said he's going to go for the bike, record will depend on weather. Might hurt someone like Lange if Sanders, Kienle, Wurf and Starky are working on the bike. Weather could play a big part too, tough conditions on the bike and it could be a different race.

Be interesting to see if Rinny can catch Charles, Charles will be off the bike well ahead but will it be far enough ahead?

Looking forward to it, would have loved to see Frodeno there after the 70.3 world champs but it looks a pretty open race on the mens side and the women's side should be close enough too, apart from Ryf who should really win.

TriFirst

What time does the race start GMT ? have to mention the reappearance of Tim Don and Matt Russell, one year after they both almost died in bike accidents on the island. cant figure out which one of them has shown more determination and bloody mindedness but delighted to see them both back so quickly to banish the demons of last year.

Lucy Charles will be out of the water and on the bike first thats for sure , but does she have the bike to stay out in front of Ryf?

I feel Sanders might have overdone his kona prep. He cut weight going into Mont Tremblant because he thought his weight of 162lbs was too heavy, which is ludicrous given his bodyfat % is about 5%. Consequently he underperformed at Mont Tremblant. Lionel seems to be a scratch constantly looking for an itch, tinkering where there is no need. Last year he came within a couple of miles of winning in Kona before Lange blasted pas him in the closing moments. Lionel just needed to stick what he did correct last year and continue to work on the basics, but over the last year he's thrown the baby out with the bathwater, including totally overhauling his everyday nutrition 6 weeks ago. Making a fundamental change to your diet so close to Kona is nuts as is his ongoing refusal to hire any coach!!! Now I could be completely wrong but I have a nagging feeling that Lionel will finish further down the field than last year, hope Im wrong.

Grassey

TriFirst wrote: »

What time does the race start GMT ?

5:35pm men start

TriFirst

Grassey wrote: »

5:35pm men start

Thanking you

peter kern

TriFirst wrote: »

What time does the race start GMT ? have to mention the reappearance of Tim Don and Matt Russell, one year after they both almost died in bike accidents on the island. cant figure out which one of them has shown more determination and bloody mindedness but delighted to see them both back so quickly to banish the demons of last year.

Lucy Charles will be out of the water and on the bike first thats for sure , but does she have the bike to stay out in front of Ryf?

I feel Sanders might have overdone his kona prep. He cut weight going into Mont Tremblant because he thought his weight of 162lbs was too heavy, which is ludicrous given his bodyfat % is about 5%. Consequently he underperformed at Mont Tremblant. Lionel seems to be a scratch constantly looking for an itch, tinkering where there is no need. Last year he came within a couple of miles of winning in Kona before Lange blasted pas him in the closing moments. Lionel just needed to stick what he did correct last year and continue to work on the basics, but over the last year he's thrown the baby out with the bathwater, including totally overhauling his everyday nutrition 6 weeks ago. Making a fundamental change to your diet so close to Kona is nuts as is his ongoing refusal to hire any coach!!! Now I could be completely wrong but I have a nagging feeling that Lionel will finish further down the field than last year, hope Im wrong.

i dont understand this ... sanders is doing this for many years now

camelback etc etc fact is he is getting better every year .

could he be better maybe but its not sure as you cant change his character.and there is no doubt that there is no other athlete that can suffer more than he can ( allister brownlee maybe) with fordos absence he is my first pick .

and of course ,like frodeno who has a coach he could not finish hawaii in the next 2 years ...
but what i will say he has done nothing wrong at tremblant it was a training day for him and he still got apprearnce fee price money. unless the camelback ... he tested his new idea before , dismished it and learned from it .

I think he raced much smarter this year.



the other thing what many people seem to forget social media is not the real world and atheltes are not really what they potray to be he is playing a good marketing spiel that makes him one of the most talked aobut atheltes and those days its all quantity and not quality.

the other thing i dont really get is this currie hype he is a massive potential and in one 2 years i guess the hype will be justyfied but until know he is not at the same level as sanders kienle lange gomes and he still has to earn that . i would bet 10 euro that gomes will beat him as he is much more consitent.

the lucky guy is mc namee I have no idea in what shape he is but if in good shape he is but if in good shape he is lucky nobody cares aobut him i think he has a very good chance to be on the podium again if he is fit. ( fastest run 2016 i think and 2nd fastest run 2017 and one of the ones you can bet he will be in the first group in the swim 98 out of 100 times )

james cunnama is another one iam interested in cant win but is a strong podium guess



in the female race we really only debate third place ...

if crowley is fit i guess she would be my first pick for third

andything than ryf first and chalres 2nd would be a massive upset....
carfree is another 3rd place contender. but i guess will be 15 plus min down to 1 and 2.



the one thing that will be intersitng what will fredrikesen do if she goes with ryf to catch chalres she could go with charles in t2 and she could be a podium thread .

joey100

Any predictions for Annie Haug Peter?

The suffering one is a strange one, I'm not sure how we know Lionel is the best at suffering? Is it because of how he looks on the course? The numbers he holds? Just not sure how we measure it, I know I'd rather win than be the best sufferer out there, and in a race like Ironman is that not who usually wins? the person who can suffer the best come the end of the run? I doubt Lange was running that comfortably last year!

TriFirst

joey100 wrote: »

Any predictions for Annie Haug Peter?

The suffering one is a strange one, I'm not sure how we know Lionel is the best at suffering? Is it because of how he looks on the course? The numbers he holds? Just not sure how we measure it, I know I'd rather win than be the best sufferer out there, and in a race like Ironman is that not who usually wins? the person who can suffer the best come the end of the run? I doubt Lange was running that comfortably last year!

Haug is a dark horse for sure. Her run is top notch as we saw at the 70.3 worlds in south Africa. Ryf is still the one to beat by virtue of her strong bike.

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with Lionel especially given he's been in Kona for a few weeks now acclimatising. I think all ironmen have an ability to embrace suffering to a phenomenal extent but Lionel's motivation doesnt seem to be to suffer in order to win, he seems to revel in the suffering for the sake of pushing his mind and body to the absolute limits. I guarantee you if he does win this weekend, he still wont be happy. He said yesterday in his interview with Bob Babitt that this years race is somewhat devalued because Frodeno isnt involved. Lionel for me is the ultimate perfectionist in his own mind, and its very difficult to ever attain satisfaction with that sort of obsessive compulsive attitude. He has the all consuming intensity of someone with an addictive personality and I believe he has the potential to get in the way of his own progress. I'll eat my words if he wins this weekend but i dont believe he will.

ronanmac

Ryf, Sanders.
I can't help but get the feeling that we're being somewhat trolled by Sanders. Year on year, he improves in Kona, and finished second in 2017 to a course record-breaking performance by Lange. Yet, he seems to be dismissed this year by the Slowtwitcherati, pretty much on the basis of how he has publicly presented his run-up to Kona (Mt Tremblant included).

peter kern

joey100 wrote: »

Any predictions for Annie Haug Peter?

The suffering one is a strange one, I'm not sure how we know Lionel is the best at suffering? Is it because of how he looks on the course? The numbers he holds? Just not sure how we measure it, I know I'd rather win than be the best sufferer out there, and in a race like Ironman is that not who usually wins? the person who can suffer the best come the end of the run? I doubt Lange was running that comfortably last year![/QUOTE




I think haug will need at least another year. i would be a bit suprised if she would come third this year ( but its not impossible ) but she still needs some time for the full maybe 2 years maybe only 1 she is somebody that next year could fight for a win at 70.3 worlds , as next year as her bike will definitley improve ( and she has set a run course record in every 70.3 she has done ) . but i think with her there is a chance that she will be slighly better at 70.3 than full

but herself and laura philip should do very well in the near future as they are both very very strong bike runners



as for sanders watch the first samorin race kienle dropped him 3-4 times the guy never gave up and came back and won.

kienle would would be the first to admit he is mentally stronger than himself and kienle is not weak by all means.sanders is a very agressive racer you will see if kienle and sanders were togheter on the bike sanders to lead more than 70 % of the time.

its of course something you cant measure and at the end of the day its about winning. but in kona being of smaller build as Bmc can tell you is prob a bigger advantage and its not like lange is weak he suffered massivley in frankfurt this year.
every atheltes has stronger and weaker points and its incredible rare to see the full triathletes like gomes frodeno and alister ,mark alan that hardly have a weakness . in swim bike run the willing to train year in year out etc etc

so being menatlly strong is defo a strong point of sanders ( maybe thats better than saying he is the stroengest but its defo a strenght of his.

peter kern

joey100 wrote: »

Any predictions for Annie Haug Peter?

The suffering one is a strange one, I'm not sure how we know Lionel is the best at suffering? Is it because of how he looks on the course? The numbers he holds? Just not sure how we measure it, I know I'd rather win than be the best sufferer out there, and in a race like Ironman is that not who usually wins? the person who can suffer the best come the end of the run? I doubt Lange was running that comfortably last year!

of course lange is working very hard but look at sanders and lange at mile 10 or 12 and see who was already labouring

also who was saving energy on the bike more for the run... ( and lange like gomes pays the patience game very well )


to add lange has also a good few years more inot tri and is starting to hit peak age in tri, whereas sanders being 2 years younger and not so many years in tri has a few years time to hit peak.



and now here i would agree with the people that say he needs a coach as i think the way he has been racing in the last 3-4 years will cost him in the long term as he pushes his body too hard and while he has no injuries yet but in the long term that is likely going to cost him ) he would have been better of to work a bit more on skills. at the same time he is a monster engine and in a way what he did do he exchanged drugs with sport and the sport is certainly better for him.

joey100

Any thoughts on Nilson or McNamee Peter? Seen the interview with McNamee with bob babbit, comes across really well, seems like a nice fella. Hasn't had a great year, he can run but was last year a fluke? Too early to start talking about Nilson? probably needs some more experience.

Be interested to hear who your outside bets for the race?

Moonfruit

1. Javier Gomez
2. Sanders
3. Kienle

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Anne Haug

ChickenBalls

Anyone know of any web site televising this?

EC1000

ChickenBalls wrote: »

Anyone know of any web site televising this?

It's on Facebook live on Iron man page

Marty Bird

Super swim from Lucy broke the swim record.

Keeks

Impressive from both Lange and Ryf.....Rhy bike leg was amazing ...to be 9mins down after the swim and then overtake lucy to lead into the run by 2 mins and then to have the legs to keep increasing the lead.....

iwillhtfu

A great interview with Lionel Sanders laid it all out there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7C0voETgUc

Hard not to feel for the guy he's giving it everything but just doesn't click.

ChickenBalls

Triathlon Taren also breaks down what he thinks happened.
There's also coverage of him during the race in this video, you could see he was suffering big time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch-9c7AM318

This Triathlon Taren guy thou, I initially ignored alot of his videos thought he was a lunatic but he's actually quite good once you get past the accent. He got to interview the Pro's day after the race - Lange is one of his subscribers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNGsADDqpUk