Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Sam Russell

I would think calling assembly elections might be more likely, and would put the frighteners on the DUP. STV would not suit them with the Ash for cash due to report, and the UUP looking for a come back.

UI would not pass under current circumstances _ not certain inthe Repblic, let alone NI.

trellheim

Boris' brother resigned as minister of state for transport in protest at the crappy deal

Imreoir2

theguzman wrote: »

Wouldn't a hard border suit Nationalists as it would force a United Ireland firmly back onto the agenda? The Reoublic is but a mere Vassal State anyway and the EU is the Fourth Reich in all but name as far as I can see.

It would seem that you are suffering from severe sightloss in that case. Ireland is not a vassal state of anything and to suggest that the EU is some sort of successor to the Third Reich is ignorent in the extreme.

An Ciarraioch

trellheim wrote: »

Boris' brother resigned as minister of state for transport in protest at the crappy deal

The Irish equivalent would be someone like Damien English resigning - worthy of attention, but a one-day wonder.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

Boris' brother resigned as minister of state for transport in protest at the crappy deal

so there is a deal?

a deal to be put before parliament?

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would seem that you are suffering from severe sightloss in that case. Ireland is not a vassal state of anything and to suggest that the EU is some sort of successor to the Third Reich is ignorent in the extreme.

I thought he was being ironic. That's the stuff you see on Twtter in response to a tweet from an arch-brexiter lambasting the paddies for having notions above their station. I actually thought he was parodying them.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I thought he was being ironic. That's the stuff you see on Twtter in response to a tweet from an arch-brexiter lambasting the paddies for having notions above their station. I actually thought he was parodying them.

Not entirely clear

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Those figures are off the top of my head and I haven't looked into the polling data in detail to see how accurate it is. The latest one in September was carried out by the Irish Times/MORI iirc.

My understanding is that you are correct, the most trustworthy recent poll was done by LucidTalk I believe and had support for UI in the mid 40's with support going over 50% should there be a hard border due to Brexit.

Personally the mid 40s figure is the more useful figure as that is how people would vote now. While support going over 50% should there be a hard border is interesting, I would not trust that figure at all, asking someone how they would act in a given hypothetical scenario is not at all the same thing as asking them how they would act now. Until support for a UI actually does go above 50% then all we can say is that a border poll would probably be a reasonably close run failure.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I thought he was being ironic. That's the stuff you see on Twtter in response to a tweet from an arch-brexiter lambasting the paddies for having notions above their station. I actually thought he was parodying them.

Just another example of Poe's Law if so.

An Ciarraioch

Jo Johnson appears to be advocating the Greening option of Deal vs No Deal vs Remain:

https://medium.com/@JoJohnsonUK/why-i-cannot-support-the-governments-proposed-brexit-deal-3d289f95f2bc

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Boris' brother resigned as minister of state for transport in protest at the crappy deal

When you look at what he said, it's a bit more nuanced than that and definitely not in lockstep with his brother:

“On this most crucial of questions, I believe it is entirely right to go back to the people and ask them to confirm their decision to leave the EU and, if they choose to do that, to give them the final say on whether we leave with the prime minister’s deal or without it. To do anything less will do grave damage to our democracy.”

Edit: He's actually getting a lot of support for his stance.

His sister making what could be a pointed comment on it.

farmchoice

good summery of the incredible hole the DUP have dug for themselves



https://twitter.com/timoconnorbl/status/1060844350110920706

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Jo Johnson appears to be advocating the Greening option of Deal vs No Deal vs Remain:

https://medium.com/@JoJohnsonUK/why-i-cannot-support-the-governments-proposed-brexit-deal-3d289f95f2bc

I never knew there were two Johnsons in the government. Will make for an interesting Christmas dinner. One a Brexiteer and the other an intelligent and principled politician.

charlie14

RobMc59 wrote: »

There is very little incentive for people in NI to want to join a UI at the moment and the assertion that they would have to accept stuff like the various tax issues and loss of NHS makes it a non starter-Ireland would have to seriously raise their game to make it happen imo. (By the way,I would love to see a UI).

I`m not saying a majority would or would not vote for a UI, and it would most likely come down too how many would judge if staying in the CU and SM outweighed or not the areas you mention.

What I was saying is that I may be wrong, but I do not see any impediment to May calling a border poll if she wished, and I am a bit surprised she hasn`t attempted to muddy the waters for everyone by suggesting she was considering it.
As she is now I cannot see what she would have to lose.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

As RobMc59 says, it would be a bit of an empty gun. And without any kind of proper polling to support it, would look like the bar of soap it was carved from too.

However, the possibility that creating a hard border might actually lead to the thing they least want, should be threat enough, one would think. Even the onset of brexit has moved polling data from a low of 21% in favour of a UI back in 2016 to close enough to 50% now*, so it wouldn't be an idle threat.


*Those figures are off the top of my head and I haven't looked into the polling data in detail to see how accurate it is. The latest one in September was carried out by the Irish Times/MORI iirc.

I`m not disagreeing with RobMc59 but I`m not that sure it would be looked on by the DUP (or even us and the EU) if May made mutterings about doing so, as an empty gun. More a game of Russian roulette for everyone other than May.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I never knew there were two Johnsons in the government. Will make for an interesting Christmas dinner. One a Brexiteer and the other an intelligent and principled politician.

You could have used the same words to describe both. Just with the prefix 'un' for one of them.

cml387

I notice that Dominic Grieve (staunch remainer) has also highlighted the NI backstop to backstop as being anathema to the Unionist part of the Conservative and Unionist party.

That's interesting in that he's approaching this from the point of view (I'd guess) that the whole Brexit debacle has led to this possibility, so now look what you've done.

It looks like the Chequers plan (remember that?) had more friends.

charlie14

Imreoir2 wrote: »

My understanding is that you are correct, the most trustworthy recent poll was done by LucidTalk I believe and had support for UI in the mid 40's with support going over 50% should there be a hard border due to Brexit.

Personally the mid 40s figure is the more useful figure as that is how people would vote now. While support going over 50% should there be a hard border is interesting, I would not trust that figure at all, asking someone how they would act in a given hypothetical scenario is not at all the same thing as asking them how they would act now. Until support for a UI actually does go above 50% then all we can say is that a border poll would probably be a reasonably close run failure.

I wasn`t judging whether a border poll would win or lose. As I have said, I may be incorrect, but faik there is no impediment under the GFA to May calling one if the NI secretary of state just fells that it would pass.

Whether it did or not would not matter to May in the position she is now in. If it passed the DUP would be a spent force in Westminster and in a UI the EU border issue is gone. If it failed she could just point to the result and say to the EU it negates the December agreement.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

I wasn`t judging whether a border poll would win or lose. As I have said, I may be incorrect, but faik there is no impediment under the GFA to May calling one if the NI secretary of state just fells that it would pass.

Whether it did or not would not matter to May in the position she is now in. If it passed the DUP would be a spent force in Westminster and in a UI the EU border issue is gone. If it failed she could just point to the result and say to the EU it negates the December agreement.

Not sure of your logic here.

ancapailldorcha

I still can't believe that Arlene Foster has been allowed to play her hand the way she has. May really should have just threatened her with another GE and the possibility of a Corbyn premiership.

Dyr

charlie14 wrote: »

I wasn`t judging whether a border poll would win or lose. As I have said, I may be incorrect, but faik there is no impediment under the GFA to May calling one if the NI secretary of state just fells that it would pass.

Whether it did or not would not matter to May in the position she is now in. If it passed the DUP would be a spent force in Westminster and in a UI the EU border issue is gone. If it failed she could just point to the result and say to the EU it negates the December agreement.

The DUP are now pretty much a spent force in terms of their influence on Brexit

The risk of a border poll is that it could entirely break up the precious, precious Union. Especially if it can be spun as a referendum on preventing NI crashing out of Europe and avoiding a hard border

I don't think the Tories are in any mood to rely on a poll to reinforce their position, it's burned them twice now.

Mr.Nice Guy

Found this interesting. Was listening to Ben Lowry, Deputy Editor of the Belfast Newsletter, on the Nolan Show and he said well-placed sources told him a few weeks ago that the government was confident they could get the deal through without the DUP. Goes on to say the DUP are in a "nightmarish situation" and offers a take on what he thinks the implications could be for unionism. You can listen from 32:00 here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0001217

On a side note, I found this via the SDLP's Claire Hanna. A pro-Brexit podcast's take on May's Brexit mistakes:

https://twitter.com/brexitbroadcast/status/1060116437631680512

Pretty damning when you absorb the scale of the errors.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I still can't believe that Arlene Foster has been allowed to play her hand the way she has. May really should have just threatened her with another GE and the possibility of a Corbyn premiership.

I don't think Theresa May has it in her to threaten anyone, and that's probably her greatest weakness. In many ways, she's the other side of the Trump coin - both of them seem incapable of thinking for themselves, and make decisions based on whatever "advisors" they've listened to most recently.



Trump doesn't bother to filter his thoughts at all, but May's premiership has been marked by a series of nonsensical proclamations and strategic miscalculations - the personification of "weak and wobbly" - that have done nothing to advance Brexit, even though the outcome of just about every scenario was foreseeable, and indeed, accurately predicted here on Boards.ie!

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A disorderly no-deal crashout will cost the EU a tonne of money. Kicking the can down the road (in classic EU style) might result in Brexit never happening, or some cheaper alternative like Norway being adopted by a Labour government.

That is true, but why would the EU want to extend article 50 when there is no prospect of getting a deal through parliament? The UK can get a soft Brexit through, but not Theresa May. So either they will need a new leader not in debt to the DUP or Theresa May will have parliament vote against her next budget.

This is all before we consider the EU parliament elections to come, where does the UK fit into this if they are leaving but haven't left yet?

I agree that the damage that will be dine will be severe to the EU, but with no prospect of a change in the near future it might be better to just get on with it and deal with the fallout sooner rather than later.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I never knew there were two Johnsons in the government. Will make for an interesting Christmas dinner. One a Brexiteer and the other an intelligent and principled politician.

I don't know if you could call Jo Johnson principled. He stumbled terribly on a question on universities when he was the Universities Minister and looked terrible as a result. Whether this was an indication of just a misstep or how he handled his brief he doesn't look great as a result. If you go to 2:45 in the video.

The question was about new universities that the government were encouraging to enter the UK.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I still can't believe that Arlene Foster has been allowed to play her hand the way she has. May really should have just threatened her with another GE and the possibility of a Corbyn premiership.

Well there was another mistake May made, apparently agreeing with the DUP in return for their support that she will ensure that NI is not treated differently to the rest of the UK as a result of Brexit.

I don't think the DUP can back down now. I think all parties have wedged themselves into a corner that they cannot move from easily without doing some serious damage to their reputations, so as many warned we will sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit because parties have wedged themselves into positions they cannot get out of.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not sure of your logic here.

If May actually held a border poll and it failed it would be very difficult for the EU to say it wasn`t the democratic decision of NI to stay in the UK and leave it under the same terms as the rest of the UK.
That is where the threat of holding a poll would be a gun to our heads and the EU`s in that it would be a hard border.
Even if it passed it probably financially wouldn`t be much better for us than failing.

That is why I am a bit surprised she hasn`t made mumblings about the possibility of doing it

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

Well there was another mistake May made, apparently agreeing with the DUP in return for their support that she will ensure that NI is not treated differently to the rest of the UK as a result of Brexit.

I don't think the DUP can back down now. I think all parties have wedged themselves into a corner that they cannot move from easily without doing some serious damage to their reputations, so as many warned we will sleepwalk into a no deal Brexit because parties have wedged themselves into positions they cannot get out of.

Is there any avenue out of this for the DUP that might result in anything remotely positive for them?

Is it not getting clearer to them at this stage that the union they are looking to protect is not really something that exists?

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A disorderly no-deal crashout will cost the EU a tonne of money. Kicking the can down the road (in classic EU style) might result in Brexit never happening, or some cheaper alternative like Norway being adopted by a Labour government.

That is true, but why would the EU want to extend article 50 when there is no prospect of getting a deal through parliament?

Which would you rather: a punch in the face right now, or wait til tomorrow and get either a punch in the face or a pat on the back?

No deal brexit now is the worst case possible. Even no deal brexit in a years time is better.

And who knows, maybe there will be Unicorns after all.

CelticRambler

charlie14 wrote: »

If May actually held a border poll and it failed it would be very difficult for the EU to say it wasn`t the democratic decision of NI to stay in the UK and leave it under the same terms as the rest of the UK.

The reason for requiring different terms for NI has to do with it being geographically attached to the Republic, the socio-economic implications of physical infrastructure along the border, and the provisions of the GFA. Holding a border poll would not change any of that - the GFA isn't up for re-negotiation, and neither are any of the EU treaties.

prawnsambo

charlie14 wrote: »

If May actually held a border poll and it failed it would be very difficult for the EU to say it wasn`t the democratic decision of NI to stay in the UK and leave it under the same terms as the rest of the UK.
That is where the threat of holding a poll would be a gun to our heads and the EU`s in that it would be a hard border.
Even if it passed it probably financially wouldn`t be much better for us than failing.

That is why I am a bit surprised she hasn`t made mumblings about the possibility of doing it

I don't think the EU are saying anything about the brexit vote in NI or what NI thinks about brexit generally. The sole focus is on the GFA and how strand 2 would be affected. And that concern is reflected here and has been accepted by the UK, even if they're trying hard to forget that now. And it would be completely improper for us or the EU to be saying anything about the brexit vote, which is a completely internal UK matter.