Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

bilston

Water John wrote: »

So the DUP's plan is to dictate who leads the Conservatory Party. That will go down well with the UK press and public.

If this is even true (and again I would point out that Jamie Bryson wrote that article) then they are being used again by the ERG. They are so naive it's untrue.

bilston

Water John wrote: »

Johnson's resignation letter is savage. Always be wary of the quiet ones, this may ignite something.

Laura Kunessberg suggesting several of May's cabinet share similar concerns to Jo Johnson. Could Johnson be the first of many?

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Laura Kunessberg suggesting several of May's cabinet share similar concerns to Jo Johnson. Could Johnson be the first of many?

It's obvious that quite a few cabinet members are hostile to May's "deal" but they'd be on the opposite side to Johnson in that they don't want a referendum.

She's in a bit of a nightmare situation : she has opposition to her customs union plan coming from all directions.

Anthracite

bilston wrote: »

Laura Kunessberg suggesting several of May's cabinet share similar concerns to Jo Johnson. Could Johnson be the first of many?

If the wheels come off at this stage, it has to be a crash-out Brexit (failing some sort of deux ex machina intervention by >somebody>< in the HoC).

Strazdas

Anthracite wrote: »

If the wheels come off at this stage, it has to be a crash-out Brexit (failing some sort of deux ex machina intervention by >somebody>< in the HoC).

Not necessarily. Even if Parliament votes down the deal, it might decide to then take control of the Brexit process (by saying that May and the Tories are simply not up to the job and are incapable of taking the UK out of the EU) and it's anyone's guess what could happen in that scenario.

charlie14

Anthracite wrote: »

If the wheels come off at this stage, it has to be a crash-out Brexit (failing some sort of deux ex machina intervention by >somebody>< in the HoC).

If you looks at it in comparison to a wheeled vehicle it`s one wheeled tricycle.
Barring the almighty rattle of cans being kicked down the road it`s a no deal crash.

Atlantic Dawn

I'm not sure whether I'd prefer another election in the UK or another Brexit vote, purely for the craic element another election would probably be best.

charlie14

Strazdas wrote: »

Not necessarily. Even if Parliament votes down the deal, it might decide to then take control of the Brexit process (by saying that May and the Tories are simply not up to the job and are incapable of taking the UK out of the EU) and it's anyone's guess what could happen in that scenario.

How that could possibly happen other than a rump of the Tory party resigning from the party and supporting a Labour government I cannot see how.


Even if they did, after seeing the DUP in action, would Labour leave themselves as hostages to fortune by relying on that rump on anything other that the present mess ?

An Ciarraioch

bilston wrote: »

sink wrote: »

This is a very interesting article to illuminate the DUP's game plan.

https://unionistvoice.com/politics/exclusive-the-dups-blueprint-for-bringing-down-the-prime-minister-and-saving-the-union/



It's a big gamble. There is no guarantee that the ERG wing would win the leadership competition. The Tory party members vote only on the two candidates with the most support from the parliamentary party and the ERG is a small minority. There is a chance none of them will make it on to the ballot because they have little support from the rest of their colleagues.

I noticed an earlier tweet by Bryson (the author of the piece above), basically along the lines of Loyalists will not accept an Irish Sea Border, frankly it sounded like a not particularly subtle threat.

Mind you, to treat Bryson as representative of unionism as a whole, would be akin to viewing Republican Sinn Féin as typical of Irish politics.

prawnsambo

If the DUP plan is to get rid of May, then it's likely that they are doing that in cahoots with others in the government. Too easy to be left with their arses hanging out the window otherwise. And facing a more united Tory party as a result.

First Up

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I'm not sure whether I'd prefer another election in the UK or another Brexit vote, purely for the craic element another election would probably be best.

I don't envisage another Brexit vote anytime soon but the collapse of May's government and another election look inevitable.

But that won't help much.

An Ciarraioch

Barnier's deputy, Sabine Weyand, informs EU ambassadors that there has been no progress on the backstop due to political deadlock in London:

http://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1060954355648643073

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

If the DUP plan is to get rid of May, then it's likely that they are doing that in cahoots with others in the government. Too easy to be left with their arses hanging out the window otherwise. And facing a more united Tory party as a result.

The only way I can see that the DUP would have any hand act or part in getting rid of May is by voting against her in a vote of confidence which would result in a GE.
If those they are in cahoots with within the Tory party just want to replace May, then the DUP would be off no consequence and I doubt they would have the numbers anyway.

Strazdas

charlie14 wrote: »

How that could possibly happen other than a rump of the Tory party resigning from the party and supporting a Labour government I cannot see how.


Even if they did, after seeing the DUP in action, would Labour leave themselves as hostages to fortune by relying on that rump on anything other that the present mess ?

Britain facing a No Deal would be a national emergency, on the scale of the Suez Crisis or worse. God knows what would happen but I don't think everyone would just shrug their shoulders and allow No Deal to happen.

How could that even be a solution anyway? After five or six weeks of No Deal being in force, it would still be a national emergency and the UK would have to find some way back out of it.

First Up

Strazdas wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

How that could possibly happen other than a rump of the Tory party resigning from the party and supporting a Labour government I cannot see how.


Even if they did, after seeing the DUP in action, would Labour leave themselves as hostages to fortune by relying on that rump on anything other that the present mess ?

Britain facing a No Deal would be a national emergency, on the scale of the Suez Crisis or worse. God knows what would happen but I don't think everyone would just shrug their shoulders and allow No Deal to happen.

How could that even be a solution anyway? After five or six weeks of No Deal being in force, it would still be a national emergency and the UK would have to find some way back out of it.

They have a bit of a way to go but its pretty obvious that the current UK government and party system is hopelessly inadequate to deal with this.

I have no idea what British politics will look like in a few years time but it will be different to now.

charlie14

Strazdas wrote: »

Britain facing a No Deal would be a national emergency, on the scale of the Suez Crisis or worse. God knows what would happen but I don't think everyone would just shrug their shoulders and allow No Deal to happen.

How could that even be a solution anyway? After five or six weeks of No Deal being in force, it would still be a national emergency and the UK would have to find some way back out of it.

True enough. If May`s government collapses after a NO Deal then the best as a nation they can hope for is a GE.
But for that to happen it would mean those Tory MP`s that do not want a no deal, rather than the ERG and the DUP, would have to cause it. Irony in the extreme considering the hoops she has been jumping through trying to prevent the DUP and the ERG causing it.

bilston

Unless they get Labour onside (or at least as many Labour MPs as possible) I don't think there is really any deal the UK govt can get through the Commons.

There are two solutions...a second referendum...or a general election.

Given a general election may solve nothing (there is little evidence of anything other than another hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party), a second referendum is the only thing to resolve this.

I also think that a lot of Remainers like myself would be more accepting of a second vote for Brexit and that if there is another vote to leave the govt will have an easier time getting a deal agreed.

theguzman

bilston wrote: »

Unless they get Labour onside (or at least as many Labour MPs as possible) I don't think there is really any deal the UK govt can get through the Commons.

There are two solutions...a second referendum...or a general election.

Given a general election may solve nothing (there is little evidence of anything other than another hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party), a second referendum is the only thing to resolve this.

I also think that a lot of Remainers like myself would be more accepting of a second vote for Brexit and that if there is another vote to leave the govt will have an easier time getting a deal agreed.

A second vote would be anti-democratic, the British people voted for Brexit and that is exactly what they should get, a hard Brexit, it is obvious they want out and if faced with such an arrogant move of trying to get them to change their minds I could see the pendulum swinging further right and an even stronger vote for Brexit second time around. The liberals really can't accept they lost in this instance.

ancapailldorcha

Twitter dump deleted.

brickster69

theguzman wrote: »

A second vote would be anti-democratic, the British people voted for Brexit and that is exactly what they should get, a hard Brexit, it is obvious they want out and if faced with such an arrogant move of trying to get them to change their minds I could see the pendulum swinging further right and an even stronger vote for Brexit second time around. The liberals really can't accept they lost in this instance.

Why not have a best of three ?

Inquitus

theguzman wrote: »

A second vote would be anti-democratic, the British people voted for Brexit and that is exactly what they should get, a hard Brexit, it is obvious they want out and if faced with such an arrogant move of trying to get them to change their minds I could see the pendulum swinging further right and an even stronger vote for Brexit second time around. The liberals really can't accept they lost in this instance.

What a load of nonsense, Democracy is about the changing flows of the electorate over time, and if over time their view has changed, they have the right to express it.

charlie14

bilston wrote: »

Unless they get Labour onside (or at least as many Labour MPs as possible) I don't think there is really any deal the UK govt can get through the Commons.

There are two solutions...a second referendum...or a general election.

Given a general election may solve nothing (there is little evidence of anything other than another hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party), a second referendum is the only thing to resolve this.

I also think that a lot of Remainers like myself would be more accepting of a second vote for Brexit and that if there is another vote to leave the govt will have an easier time getting a deal agreed.

Firstly my sincere sympathies for yourself and all who voted remain with what that leave vote has caused , and while like yourself I believe the only thing to resolve this at this stage is a second referendum. But with you saying the Tories would be the largest part if it was a GE, after the mess Brexit has become I would worry that the result would be no different unless Labour get their finger out unlike last time out get off the fence and unequivocally as a party support remaining within the EU.

L1011

BBC News desperately trying to report really rather mediocre growth figures (probably fudged at that) as fantastic news there.

charlie14

theguzman wrote: »

A second vote would be anti-democratic, the British people voted for Brexit and that is exactly what they should get, a hard Brexit, it is obvious they want out and if faced with such an arrogant move of trying to get them to change their minds I could see the pendulum swinging further right and an even stronger vote for Brexit second time around. The liberals really can't accept they lost in this instance.

You may be correct on the swinging pendulum so I cannot see if you are true to that belief why you or anyone else who believes that has anything to fear from a second referendum.
Btw, for the life of me I cannot get my head around the reasoning that any vote could be democratic if it is carried out in a fair and free election.

bilston

charlie14 wrote: »

Firstly my sincere sympathies for yourself and all who voted remain with what that leave vote has caused , and while like yourself I believe the only thing to resolve this at this stage is a second referendum. But with you saying the Tories would be the largest part if it was a GE, after the mess Brexit has become I would worry that the result would be no different unless Labour get their finger out unlike last time out get off the fence and unequivocally as a party support remaining within the EU.

It looks like that would require a change in the leadership of the Labour Party.

The thing is the leader of the Conservatives is a Remainer at heart and the leader of the Labour Party is a Brexiteer...it's an odd thing...

An Ciarraioch

theguzman wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Unless they get Labour onside (or at least as many Labour MPs as possible) I don't think there is really any deal the UK govt can get through the Commons.

There are two solutions...a second referendum...or a general election.

Given a general election may solve nothing (there is little evidence of anything other than another hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party), a second referendum is the only thing to resolve this.

I also think that a lot of Remainers like myself would be more accepting of a second vote for Brexit and that if there is another vote to leave the govt will have an easier time getting a deal agreed.

A second vote would be anti-democratic, the British people voted for Brexit and that is exactly what they should get, a hard Brexit, it is obvious they want out and if faced with such an arrogant move of trying to get them to change their minds I could see the pendulum swinging further right and an even stronger vote for Brexit second time around. The liberals really can't accept they lost in this instance.

That assumes all Leavers had a unified, single interpretation of what relationship they wanted with the EU - some may have wanted a clean economic break, but others were satisfied with Norway, others with a Turkey-style bilateral agreement, so there was no clear direction given as to how the Government should proceed with negotiations. If the Commons proves unable to reach a conclusion, then throwing matters back to the electorate may well prove the only course of action available.

listermint

L1011 wrote: »

BBC News desperately trying to report really rather mediocre growth figures (probably fudged at that) as fantastic news there.

Doesn't matter what they tweet.

You have competitions like this going on

https://twitter.com/MyStephanomics/status/1060834477562363904?s=20

The country is on its arse. Bottom of the league in European growth.

charlie14

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bilston wrote: »

It looks like that would require a change in the leadership of the Labour Party.

The thing is the leader of the Conservatives is a Remainer at heart and the leader of the Labour Party is a Brexiteer...it's an odd thing...

Not the ideal or even close where Labour are concerned and while May is a Remainer at heart, could she, from being the PM that was negotiating Brexit, come out in a 2nd referendum in favour of Remaining
She possiblly could, but would it not just giving the Leave campaign just more ammo to confuse the issues ?

brickster69

Inquitus wrote: »

What a load of nonsense, Democracy is about the changing flows of the electorate over time, and if over time their view has changed, they have the right to express it.

Rubbish, where do you stop a democratic vote? A country votes for a party in an election to serve 4 years and then two years through the term the public can request to vote again because their views have changed ?

Brexit has now become much more than the UK leaving the EU now. It is the people instructing the politicians to carry out their democratic wishes. It is fundamental to democracy.

Regardless of views, i would be pretty sure that the way this Government has handled this matter has broken whatever trust people had in politicians for a long long time. Quite shameful to be honest.

An Ciarraioch

brickster69 wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

What a load of nonsense, Democracy is about the changing flows of the electorate over time, and if over time their view has changed, they have the right to express it.

Rubbish, where do you stop a democratic vote? A country votes for a party in an election to serve 4 years and then two years through the term the public can request to vote again because their views have changed ?

Brexit has now become much more than the UK leaving the EU now. It is the people instructing the politicians to carry out their democratic wishes. It is fundamental to democracy.

Regardless of views, i would be pretty sure that the way this Government has handled this matter has broken whatever trust people had in politicians for a long long time. Quite shameful to be honest.

The sole instruction they gave to the UK government was to leave the European Union, and that's precisely what will happen in less than five months from now.