Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

trellheim

fly_agaric wrote: »

Sounds overly dramatic in the short term, but if UK continues down the road the Conservatives seem to be explicitly setting out on (ultra low tax and minimal regulation renegade operating outside the Single Market, customs union etc) it will possibly come down to that. Other option IMO in that scenario is that Ireland will be forced out of EU itself eventually.

Deliberately so. Although the CTA predates the EU , goods and services must essentially stop flowing, you can walk across the border legally due to the CTA at Omeath, Aughnacloy or Belcoo but I doubt you would be able to drive legally or in an insured fashion , take a train, bus or aeroplane to (or from) the UK under the law as it stands, as it would be a 3rd country with no laws or deals to cover any of that.

Have people not being following this ? As it stands at the moment thats where it's headed.

Imreoir2

fly_agaric wrote: »

Sounds overly dramatic in the short term, but if UK continues down the road the Conservatives seem to be explicitly setting out on (ultra low tax and minimal regulation renegade operating outside the Single Market, customs union etc) it will possibly come down to that. Other option IMO in that scenario is that Ireland will be forced out of EU itself eventually.

Why would Ireland be forced out of the EU? There are numerous EU memberstates that border countries that have political and economic policies that are entirely out of step with the EU.

flutered

Tell me how wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yeah true. Incidentally, the Brothers Johnson are two sides of the same coin. Both equally unconcerned about the big picture but about what can they do to get people talking about them in tomorrows headlines.
Their father is the same, He was on Sky News two weeks ago and his advice on the Irish situation was "If the Irish want to shoot each other they will shoot each other whether there is a hard border or not". A toxic and dangerous family IMO.

I'm not sure in the case of Jo that he was looking for headlines. He spoke about another referendum, not that May had failed and they needed a strong leader i.e. my brother.

Question Time on BBC is an interesting insight in to the national psyche in relation to Brexit. The majority seem to think it should happen for 2 reasons; they voted to leave, or they think the democratic vote must be upheld.

I know the BBC is accused of being partisan in this matter but I don't see how they could select pro-Brexit people to the audience so frequently unless they do make up this significant portion of the person on the street.

all audences are pre selected, when one applys one has to answer questions, the answers to which rule you either in or out

Tell me how

flutered wrote: »

all audences are pre selected, when one applys one has to answer questions, the answers to which rule you either in or out

Are you suggesting that they tailor the audience to be dominantly pro-Brexit?

Seems they'd be caught with concrete evidence of doing that it it was going on.

Or do you think they're more generic questions such as "Did you vote in the last General Election?

trellheim

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Why would Ireland be forced out of the EU? There are numerous EU memberstates that border countries that have political and economic policies that are entirely out of step with the EU.

Indeed ...
Russia, Albania , Turkey, Belarus border directly , and Cyprus is only a short hop to Syria

fly_agaric

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Why would Ireland be forced out of the EU? There are numerous EU memberstates that border countries that have political and economic policies that are entirely out of step with the EU.

They have (I assume?) "hard" borders with their non-EU neighbours?
Or at least they do the best that they can.
Having an Irish policy of continuing with status quo for NI border no matter what while UK is now outside the EU and busy changing loads of its laws, making new trade deals etc. will impose greater costs and risks over time. (IMO) it could take a while for the pressures to build, we'll probably receive a fair bit of leeway around this in the beginning at least but you can't rely on goodwill lasting forever.

Gerry T

fly_agaric wrote: »

They have (I assume?) "hard" borders with their non-EU neighbours?
Or at least they do the best that they can.
Having an Irish policy of continuing with status quo at NI border no matter what while UK is now outside the EU and busy changing loads of its laws, making new trade deals etc. will impose greater costs and risks over time. (IMO) it could take a while for the pressures to build, we'll probably receive a fair bit of leeway around this in the beginning at least but you can't rely on goodwill lasting forever.

If NI were to remain border free to ROI post a hard brexit by staying in the SM and CU there would be no divergence between NI and ROI (EU). The difficulty would be between UK and NI, in managing the differing regions between UK and NI. Over time the most likely outcome would be either reunification of NI and ROI or NI leaving the UK and becoming a member state of the EU in it's own right. Either of these are a far higher probability I would think than NI staying in the UK. The NI economy is heavily dependent on the EU more than any other area.

flutered

RobMc59 wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

Without the GFA we might still have a territorial claim on the north - would the back a members territorial claim against a leaving UK?

That's as unlikely as the UK saying -as we're leaving we want the rest of ireland back...

are they not saying that ireland should leave the eu and rejoin the uk

Imreoir2

fly_agaric wrote: »

They have (I assume?) "hard" borders with their non-EU neighbours?
Or at least they do the best that they can.
Having an Irish policy of continuing with status quo for NI border no matter what while UK is now outside the EU and busy changing loads of its laws, making new trade deals etc. will impose greater costs and risks over time. (IMO) it could take a while for the pressures to build, we'll probably receive a fair bit of leeway around this in the beginning at least but you can't rely on goodwill lasting forever.

Ireland's policy is to ensure that the UK, or at least NI cannot diverge in such a way that would require a hard border. Ireland is very well placed to be able yo do this because it is vital for the UK that there be a strong trading relationship with the EU and Ireland can make accepting alighnment of NI with the Republic the price that the UK must pay for this relationship.

The UK could refuse to pay this price, diverge anyway and cause huge damage to themselves, but I doubt they will, and should it happen, I doubt it will be a sustainable position for the UK. Should they make that choice though, Ireland will have to follow the rules of the Customs Union and Single Market and enforce border checks. I seriously doubt any Irish government would choose to risk being suspended from the EU over enforcing a border if forced to do so by the UK.

fly_agaric

Gerry T wrote: »

If NI were to remain border free to ROI post a hard brexit by staying in the SM and CU there would be no divergence between NI and ROI (EU). The difficulty would be between UK and NI, in managing the differing regions between UK and NI. Over time the most likely outcome would be either reunification of NI and ROI or NI leaving the UK and becoming a member state of the EU in it's own right. Either of these are a far higher probability I would think than NI staying in the UK. The NI economy is heavily dependent on the EU more than any other area.

The problem (for Ireland) in the hypothetical no agreement scenario is that NI is border-free to Ireland...but also to the rest of the UK and operating under UK laws. Depending on the regime in the UK post brexit, that may open up massive opportunities for Ireland in becoming a great hub for fraud and smuggling of all sorts in the EU. It's not the look we want really (?!) and eventually our partners in the EU would run out of patience with it.

fly_agaric

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Ireland's policy is to ensure that the UK, or at least NI cannot diverge in such a way that would require a hard border. Ireland is very well placed to be able yo do this because it is vital for the UK that there be a strong trading relationship with the EU and Ireland can make accepting alighnment of NI with the Republic the price that the UK must pay for this relationship.

The UK could refuse to pay this price, diverge anyway and cause huge damage to themselves, but I doubt they will, and should it happen, I doubt it will be a sustainable position for the UK. Should they make that choice though, Ireland will have to follow the rules of the Customs Union and Single Market and enforce border checks. I seriously doubt any Irish government would choose to risk being suspended from the EU over enforcing a border if forced to do so by the UK.

I fully agree with what you have written.
You are relying on rationality winning the day in the end in the UK. With what is going on, I'm not certain of that - who knows how it will pan out in the end.
They are not going to get much more "change" out of the EU [or ourselves] on this so if UK can't bring itself to accept the bones of what is there as a withdrawal agreement - what then? I suppose what I was saying was we could (potentially) have a nasty choice to make on the border.

Nate--IRL--

fly_agaric wrote: »

...........so if UK can't bring itself to accept the bones of what is there as a withdrawal agreement - what then? I suppose what I was saying was we could (potentially) have a nasty choice to make on the border.

There is no "Choice". If there is no Withdrawal agreement there is hard border, end of story.

Either side could try to spin who's implementing one first, but in reality both sides will enforce a hard border.

Nate

Sam Russell

fly_agaric wrote: »

I fully agree with what you have written.
You are relying on rationality winning the day in the end in the UK. With what is going on, I'm not certain of that - who knows how it will pan out in the end.
I suppose what I was saying was we could (potentially) have a nasty choice to make on the border.

If there has to be a hard border in the North, we would initially control it with mobile customs patrols that operate many Kms from the border, using intelligence led operations. Co-operation with authorities in the North would be a prerequisite, but there is no reason the believe that there would be any problem with that.

If agriculture inspections continue at Larne, etc., and those inspections increase to 100%, then much of the problem is solved.

Dover, on the other hand, ......

fly_agaric

Sam Russell wrote: »

If there has to be a hard border in the North, we would initially control it with mobile customs patrols that operate many Kms from the border, using intelligence led operations. Co-operation with authorities in the North would be a prerequisite, but there is no reason the believe that there would be any problem with that.

If agriculture inspections continue at Larne, etc., and those inspections increase to 100%, then much of the problem is solved.

Dover, on the other hand, ......

I suppose if worst comes to worst there are alot of less "visible" things we can do to combat smuggling etc. that will take place away from the border.
Anyway, in the meantime we can still hope/pray for an outbreak of sense in the UK.

An Ciarraioch

fly_agaric wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Ireland's policy is to ensure that the UK, or at least NI cannot diverge in such a way that would require a hard border. Ireland is very well placed to be able yo do this because it is vital for the UK that there be a strong trading relationship with the EU and Ireland can make accepting alighnment of NI with the Republic the price that the UK must pay for this relationship.

The UK could refuse to pay this price, diverge anyway and cause huge damage to themselves, but I doubt they will, and should it happen, I doubt it will be a sustainable position for the UK. Should they make that choice though, Ireland will have to follow the rules of the Customs Union and Single Market and enforce border checks. I seriously doubt any Irish government would choose to risk being suspended from the EU over enforcing a border if forced to do so by the UK.

I fully agree with what you have written.
You are relying on rationality winning the day in the end in the UK. With what is going on, I'm not certain of that - who knows how it will pan out in the end.
They are not going to get much more "change" out of the EU [or ourselves] on this so if UK can't bring itself to accept the bones of what is there as a withdrawal agreement - what then? I suppose what I was saying was we could (potentially) have a nasty choice to make on the border.

Indeed - I enjoy reading the EU Referendum blog, as the author is perhaps the most rational Brexiter, but even he is wont to go on hobby horses about "regaining independence" and seeking a "true democracy", as if seeking an FTA is the panacea to the UK's problems.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed - I enjoy reading the EU Referendum blog, as the author is perhaps the most rational Brexiter, but even he is wont to go on hobby horses about "regaining independence" and seeking a "true democracy", as if seeking an FTA is the panacea to the UK's problems.

It's a very good blog but the owner sometimes goes off on rants about sovereignty and democracy and the likes. He's almost forgetting too that being pro-Leave puts him in the same bed as virtually every uninformed crank in British politics......not a comfortable place for any academic to be.

Kermit.de.frog

I note Theresa May hasn't said a word to appease the DUP.

Her education sec this morning saying UK can't ask to be able to unilaterally leave backstop.

That prob means they have decided finally to square up to the DUP...

L1011

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I note Theresa May hasn't said a word to appease the DUP.

Her education sec this morning saying UK can't ask to be able to unilaterally leave backstop.

That prob means they have decided finally to square up to the DUP...

Corbyn's comments this weekend mean that there is little chance of any deal at all passing without a GE and they don't need the DUP for a GE - there is really no scenario of a GE outcome where the DUP matter now. Indeed I can see the DUP dropping seats anyway; and the SDLP possibly regaining two of their old ones which changes the figures in a very tight parliament a lot.

Water John

Yeah, not counting the DUP in the vote count any more I'd say. Will be sweet to some Lb MPs but doubt if it'll work.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1053662098574716929

You may recall the Guinness drinking brexiter who was featured some posts back.


https://www.thejournal.ie/guinness-production-brexit-4331911-Nov2018/?amp=1

Making and exporting Guinness could be 'seriously disrupted' because of Brexit

Well that's not great news for him so.

Folkstonian

Enzokk wrote: »

As ridiculous as this is to type I feel a lot of people in the UK will think, England 2 - Germany 0 when they think and see the graves of the soldiers and think of both wars.

What is this based on other than your own xenophobic musings?

Certainly there’s not been a single shred of that kind of triumphalism at any of the local services or national ceremonies this weekend.

EdgeCase

It never ceases to amaze me how completely oblivious to the history of the British Empire some of these people are. They clearly have no idea what it was, other than that they benefited enormously from its trappings.

There's absolutely no concept of the fact that:
1. it no longer exists,
2. recreating it would be impossible and many of the places that they once 'owned' are very formidable military powers in their own right (one or two of which are even nuclear armed) and
3. The British Empire basically operated as a plundering organisation.

I appreciate that a very large % of English people do not think like this, but they really have to consider not being sucked a vortex of policy making that is being set by people who are living some kind of right wing imperial fantasy imagining a world that hasn't existed since the 1930s.

Is there no modern history taught in the UK? Is it just some kind of folklore about kings and queens or something? I mean it's mind boggling how a significant % of the population seem to have nothing but a lovely nostalgic feeling towards something that the UK should be utterly ashamed of. Most other former empires actually went through a period of facing up to the truths of what they actually did.

I feel sorry for the people who are going to be dragged off a cliff by a government and a media that is determined to continue to feed this utter delusion.

It's only a few months to go and they are still blithering around talking utter nonsense.

Anthracite

Folkstonian wrote: »

What is this based on other than your own xenophobic musings?

Certainly there’s not been a single shred of that kind of triumphalism at any of the local services or national ceremonies this weekend.

Have you heard of The Sun, The Daily Express, or The Daily Telegraph?

UsedToWait

Folkstonian wrote: »

What is this based on other than your own xenophobic musings?

Certainly there’s not been a single shred of that kind of triumphalism at any of the local services or national ceremonies this weekend.

I'd imagine it's based on the old ditty "Two World Wars and One World Cup", as sung by Union Jack waving troglodytes.

Kermit.de.frog

Macron telling CNN it's time for Europe to "build it's own sovereignty".


I don't think we need this talk right now to be perfectly honest with Brexit and all the other issues in many European countries.

EdgeCase

I think Macron and Merkel need to avoid talking on behalf of Europe. It's something that is highly inappropriate. If he wants to talk on behalf of France, fine, but please leave talking on behalf of the EU to the EU.

It creates the impression, which may well be false, that the French are setting the agenda and it causes all sorts of domestic issues in other EU member states.

It actually undermines the EU institutions and I don't think they do enough to push back against it.

Folkstonian

Anthracite wrote: »

Have you heard of The Sun, The Daily Express, or The Daily Telegraph?

Not seen anything but solemn reflection and commemoration in any newspaper myself. Maybe you know different.

I don’t think anyone has ever visited a CWGC cemetery in France, Belgium, or elsewhere and not been very moved by the experience of walking among the rows and rows of white headstones.

Water John

With Merkel leaving, Macron may be positioning himself as the main European leader.

Adamcp898

Water John wrote: »

With Merkel leaving, Macron may be positioning himself as the main European leader.

Given the week he's had, he needs to worry more about seeing through his own term first.

An Ciarraioch

Vince Cable rather optimistically thinks he can persuade SF to take their seats for Brexit!

http://twitter.com/vincecable/status/1061725912415326208