Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Vince Cable rather optimistically thinks he can persuade SF to take their seats for Brexit!

http://twitter.com/vincecable/status/1061725912415326208

Weren't some of those lib Dems absent for a few Brexit related votes themselves?

Water John

In fairness, that was an internal communications error within the Lib Dems. don't think it was deliberate.

zapitastas

Sam Russell wrote: »

If there has to be a hard border in the North, we would initially control it with mobile customs patrols that operate many Kms from the border, using intelligence led operations. Co-operation with authorities in the North would be a prerequisite, but there is no reason the believe that there would be any problem with that.

If agriculture inspections continue at Larne, etc., and those inspections increase to 100%, then much of the problem is solved.

Dover, on the other hand, ......

There is a marked increase in customs checkpoints over the last two years south of the border. One checkpoint outside cavan town was like a small town as had customs, Gardai and social welfare checks. Must be in training

Kermit.de.frog

We are closer than we have yet been to a No Deal Brexit.

Of course they need to prepare.

This is going to be yet another strain on our gardai who are not properly equipped or resourced as it is.

charlie14

zapitastas wrote: »

There is a marked increase in customs checkpoints over the last two years south of the border. One checkpoint outside cavan town was like a small town as had customs, Gardai and social welfare checks. Must be in training

I have seen Garda and Customs carrying out roadside checks on diesel, but nobody from Social Welfare.
Garda, Customs, Revenue and Social Welfare carry out joint inspections on business premises though for tax evasion, selling smuggled goods and under the counter payments to staff who may be claiming Social Welfare all over the country.

FrancieBrady

zapitastas wrote: »

There is a marked increase in customs checkpoints over the last two years south of the border. One checkpoint outside cavan town was like a small town as had customs, Gardai and social welfare checks. Must be in training

Anecdotally have heard people who live out the road at the old border talk of Board of Works folks measuring and assessing land. They are certainly preparing for the worst. I would expect any competent government to do it.

zapitastas

charlie14 wrote: »

I have seen Garda and Customs carrying out roadside checks on diesel, but nobody from Social Welfare.
Garda, Customs, Revenue and Social Welfare carry out joint inspections on business premises though for tax evasion, selling smuggled goods and under the counter payments to staff who may be claiming Social Welfare all over the country.

Definitely social welfare staff on the checkpoints. Must be training exercises for whatever might be coming down the line

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

What is this based on other than your own xenophobic musings?

Certainly there’s not been a single shred of that kind of triumphalism at any of the local services or national ceremonies this weekend.

As another poster mentioned that old ditty that the English football supporters are so fond of singing. I am also aware that not every person in the UK feels this way and you will not find them singing it at the ceremonies held on the 11th November each year.

There seems to be a lot of respect for the soldiers around this time of the year. Here you have a wonderful example of someone showing respect to the fallen by proudly displaying the poppy.

Imreoir2

fly_agaric wrote: »

I fully agree with what you have written.
You are relying on rationality winning the day in the end in the UK. With what is going on, I'm not certain of that - who knows how it will pan out in the end.
They are not going to get much more "change" out of the EU [or ourselves] on this so if UK can't bring itself to accept the bones of what is there as a withdrawal agreement - what then? I suppose what I was saying was we could (potentially) have a nasty choice to make on the border.

In that case, we will have to take temporary measures on the border for as long as it takes the UK to come to its senses, accept a deal including the backstop and live up to the commitments it has made. Given that no-deal will be chaotic for the UK, I don't think it will take them very long.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In that case, we will have to take temporary measures on the border for as long as it takes the UK to come to its senses, accept a deal including the backstop and live up to the commitments it has made. Given that no-deal will be chaotic for the UK, I don't think it will take them very long.

I think that ship will have sailed when there's no WA. You can't go back and agree a WA after the time has elapsed. That's what a hard brexit is. On 30th March, Britain will be a third country. That cake can't be de-egged.

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Why would Ireland be forced out of the EU? There are numerous EU memberstates that border countries that have political and economic policies that are entirely out of step with the EU.

Ireland won't be forced out of the EU. The last thing the EU would want is the loss of another member over Brexit. To be honest what's more likely given the info so far is that if Britain crashes out the most likely scenario would be Scotland breaking away to form an independent nation and a no deal induced depression in NI drastically shifting support in favour of reunification to cause a UI to eventually happen.

Economics is still a powerful factor and if a hard brexit happens no matter what the DUP says what wont be lost on many people is how the republic will still be growing economically while the North is in essentially depression like conditions all because of Brexit. Its the kind of political stupidity that changes things just like how FF was brought down by the bank guarantee and the crash.

LeinsterDub

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In that case, we will have to take temporary measures on the border for as long as it takes the UK to come to its senses, accept a deal including the backstop and live up to the commitments it has made. Given that no-deal will be chaotic for the UK, I don't think it will take them very long.

And if they never come to their senses?

charlie14

zapitastas wrote: »

Definitely social welfare staff on the checkpoints. Must be training exercises for whatever might be coming down the line

That`s a strange one.

I cannot imagine what they were there for, or what they could be training for in the event of a hard border.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think that ship will have sailed when there's no WA. You can't go back and agree a WA after the time has elapsed. That's what a hard brexit is. On 30th March, Britain will be a third country. That cake can't be de-egged.

Of course not, but there will be several issues that remain to be resolved. There will still be EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU. Both sides will take some unilateral measures, but this is not satisfactory for either side in the long run as a uilateral measure can just as unilaterally be changed or withdrawn. An agreement will be needed to resolve this issue in a stable and sustainable way. The UK will still owe the EU in or aroung 40 billion and no nation wants to be seen to default on any kind of debt. Transport links will need to be sorted out, the channle tunnel will shut down in a no-deal scenario, an agreement will be needed to open it again. An agreement will be needed to allow aircraft serviced in the UK to land in the EU. An agreement will be needed to ensure the Irish single energy market can continue to function. While the WA will be gone, the issues the WA needs to resolve will not disapear on the 29th of March, quite the opposite in fact.

Either the UK pays the price (the backstop) for resolving these issues before Brexit, or they pay the price at some point after Brexit. Given the scale of the disaster they will be faced with, I think the timeframe will be days or weeks not months for them to agree to the backstop.

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And if they never come to their senses?

Then we continue to enforce the necessary border measures and watch the UK disintegrate.

Spook_ie

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1053662098574716929

You may recall the Guinness drinking brexiter who was featured some posts back.


https://www.thejournal.ie/guinness-production-brexit-4331911-Nov2018/?amp=1

Well that's not great news for him so.

Are you sure it's Guinness though?
https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2012/03/08/Wadworth-releases-new-premium-stout

Spook_ie

Water John wrote: »

In fairness, that was an internal communications error within the Lib Dems. don't think it was deliberate.

Do you mean a comms Cable fault?

zapitastas

charlie14 wrote: »

That`s a strange one.

I cannot imagine what they were there for, or what they could be training for in the event of a hard border.

Someone told me it is in relation to people living in the north but working and claiming social welfare south of the border or some such variation.

charlie14

zapitastas wrote: »

Someone told me it is in relation to people living in the north but working and claiming social welfare south of the border or some such variation.

Maybe so, but it seems a very hit and miss way of going about it.

Spook_ie

Infini wrote: »

Ireland won't be forced out of the EU. The last thing the EU would want is the loss of another member over Brexit. To be honest what's more likely given the info so far is that if Britain crashes out the most likely scenario would be Scotland breaking away to form an independent nation and a no deal induced depression in NI drastically shifting support in favour of reunification to cause a UI to eventually happen.

Economics is still a powerful factor and if a hard brexit happens no matter what the DUP says what wont be lost on many people is how the republic will still be growing economically while the North is in essentially depression like conditions all because of Brexit. Its the kind of political stupidity that changes things just like how FF was brought down by the bank guarantee and the crash.

Just means that under the CTA lots will come south to get jobs, just as they do now

Anthracite

Folkstonian wrote: »

Not seen anything but solemn reflection and commemoration in any newspaper myself. Maybe you know different.

I don’t think anyone has ever visited a CWGC cemetery in France, Belgium, or elsewhere and not been very moved by the experience of walking among the rows and rows of white headstones.

Are we saying that one day's 'solemn reflection' annihilates 364 days of jingoistic, antagonistic and triumphalist nationalism?

Folkstonian

Anthracite wrote: »

Are we saying that one day's 'solemn reflection' annihilates 364 days of jingoistic, antagonistic and triumphalist nationalism?

Why the use of quotation marks? What effect are you hoping they have? Do you think the commemorations have not been solemn and dignified?

I don’t recognise the picture you portray of Britain. Sure, there are some absolute dregs who may revel in triumphalism, but they are a very small group of people. They are not representative of the masses of good people.

I often find in this thread that many contributors don’t know or understand British society half as comprehensively as they may like to believe.

Anthracite

Folkstonian wrote: »

Why the use of quotation marks? What effect are you hoping they have? Do you think the commemorations have not been solemn and dignified?

Well I was quoting what you said. Hence the quotation marks.

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t recognise the picture you portray of Britain. Sure, there are some absolute dregs who may revel in triumphalism, but they are a very small group of people. They are not representative of the masses of good people.

Then why are the biggest selling newspapers in the UK peddlars of the kind of bilge that I was referring to? Are UK newspaper buyers contrarian, in that they buy newspapers that they don't like?

Folkstonian wrote: »

I often find in this thread that many contributors don’t know or understand British society half as comprehensively as they may like to believe.

That's possible, but I also find that British people don't seem to want to acknowledge a pretty sizeable, pretty ugly aspect of their society. I speak as someone routinely accused of being a 'West-Brit'.

Strazdas

Folkstonian wrote: »

Why the use of quotation marks? What effect are you hoping they have? Do you think the commemorations have not been solemn and dignified?

I don’t recognise the picture you portray of Britain. Sure, there are some absolute dregs who may revel in triumphalism, but they are a very small group of people. They are not representative of the masses of good people.

I often find in this thread that many contributors don’t know or understand British society half as comprehensively as they may like to believe.

That could well be true.

I'm slightly wary of the fetishization of WW1 by the British media though. France, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary all lost far more soldiers as a percentage of their population than Britain did (and many other countries' casualties were almost on a par with GB) but I get the feeling their 'WW1 commemoration industry' is nowhere near as big and as active as that of Britain's.

Even before the England-All Blacks game yesterday, there was a veritable military ceremony on the pitch that went on for ages and with the Last Post sounded - some might say it was a little inappropriate in a sporting setting.

Spook_ie

Anthracite wrote: »

Then why are the biggest selling newspapers in the UK peddlars of the kind of bilge that I was referring to? Are UK newspaper buyers contrarian, in that they buy newspapers that they don't like?

I actually buy the Irish Sunday Mail, why?, because it has a halfway decent TV guide,far better than the RTE Guide or Radio Times.

Mc Love

Spook_ie wrote: »

I actually buy the Irish Sunday Mail, why?, because it has a halfway decent TV guide,far better than the RTE Guide or Radio Times.

People still buy tv guides?

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

That could well be true.

I'm slightly wary of the fetishization of WW1 by the British media though. France, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary all lost far more soldiers as a percentage of their population than Britain did (and many other countries' casualties were almost on a par with GB) but I get the feeling their 'WW1 commemoration industry' is nowhere near as big and as active as that of Britain's.

Even before the England-All Blacks game yesterday, there was a veritable military ceremony on the pitch that went on for ages and with the Last Post sounded - some might say it was a little inappropriate in a sporting setting.

Britain has a past-some of it good some of it bad-France,Germany and the US are all the same-you can either get over it or you can continue doing what you accuse British people of doing-wallowing in it...

lawred2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Britain has a past-some of it good some of it bad-France,Germany and the US are all the same-you can either get over it or you can continue doing what you accuse British people of doing-wallowing in it...

What were the good bits militarily?

Muscles Schultz

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

PR ?

Are you cracked ? :pac:

After a "bad-tempered and ill-informed public debate" only 13.4% of the electorate voted for the Alternative Vote back in 2011.


I can't imagine the BS and disinformation that will flow from both sides if they tried to explain to the Great British Public how AV would be used on a Brexit referendum.


The information flow on the AV referendum was almost totally about how this would change the results rather than how it allowed people a choice other than voting for the enemy of my enemy.

The titbit that it could only affect marginals and then only in some circumstances was pretty much drowned in the noise.

Also left out was any suggestion that the pendulum could swing back to the incumbent in the case of say protest votes or the local hospital candidate.



The whole debate was about AV was how it would change the result.


The very idea that AV could have benefited the Lib Dems at the expense of Labour and Conservatives means that neither party will want AV or PR appearing on a poll anytime soon*.

* except of course in NI because there's no deviation.

Justine Greening has propose a PR style vote

Rhineshark

RobMc59 wrote: »

Britain has a past-some of it good some of it bad-France,Germany and the US are all the same-you can either get over it or you can continue doing what you accuse British people of doing-wallowing in it...

I believe the underlying point is that the British don't entirely seem to be over it. It's where the Empire 2.0 nonsense and the helpful suggestions that it could all be solved by Ireland rejoicing cones from. And the jingoistic chest thumping that has been part of the "negotiations" from the start.

Someone used the reasoning on me (as to why to get on with it and ignore the GFA) that Britain "is the envy of the world, has always been the envy of the world and will continue to be. That's all", yesterday. While that would just be one idiot (apparently peer of the realm), it's not the first (or second or third) time someone's used that argument as if it is one. And don't get me started on how the press and those that pay attention to it speak and act regarding other European countries or leaders.

Basically, everyone else will get over it when the noisy ones stop making it front and centre in Brexit negotiations.