Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Call me Al

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britain-belgium-2866202-Jul2016/%3famp=1

It's complicated. The US is our biggest market by a country mile and Belgium outstrips the UK. But a lot of goods are shipped on from Belgium. Plus the UK is more profitable because of the nature of the goods imported.

But is there a proportion of the UK exports figure that's shipped on from there too?
Edit j see prawnsambo has answered the question.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

The CSO base their figures on final destination for goods, not where they're shipped through. So the Belgian exports are goods that are destined for Belgium only. Afaik, it's a lot of agri-foods that go there. Beef, dairy etc.

Belgium distributes a lot if pharmaceutical goods across Europe. 87% of Irish exports to Belgium were chemical products.

Water John

Trevor Kavanagh Political Editor, The Sun, spouting s***e on CNN. Hala Gorani not letting him a free ride. At least he seems realistic about the No Deal Brexit, because of failure to prepare.

prawnsambo

Scoondal wrote: »

Is that because US companies use Ireland as a tax haven ?
I find it hard to believe that actual Irish companies have more trade to USA than to EU.. This all just your Apple, Google, non manufacturing "numbers/accounts" trade.
If you look at real trading relationships, USA to Ireland and vice versa, it is small compared to trade of products to EU.

The figures on the CSO site that I linked are for goods. EU goods to August this year total €45 billion. To the USA: €25 billion. So it's not actually the Google or Apple transfer pricing stuff. That wouldn't count as exports anyway. It would be under trademark, IP and patent transfers afaik.

Professor Moriarty

Call me Al wrote: »

But is there a proportion of the UK exports figure that's shipped on from there too?

Presumably. Belgian ports would have a lot of traffic from the UK.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Belgium distributes a lot if pharmaceutical goods across Europe. 87% of Irish exports to Belgium were chemical products.

Isn't that post-processed though? We manufacture a lot of chemicals for the pharma industry that's not end product until it's further processed into medicines etc. I haven't look hard enough at the data on the CSO site, but I've seen lots of announcements in the agri-food sector about increased exports to Belgium.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Isn't that post-processed though? We manufacture a lot of chemicals for the pharma industry that's not end product until it's further processed into medicines etc. I haven't look hard enough at the data on the CSO site, but I've seen lots of announcements in the agri-food sector about increased exports to Belgium.

About 45% of exports to Belgium are organic chemicals and 45% are pharma products. Meat and dairy is less than 5%.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

About 45% of exports to Belgium are organic chemicals and 45% are pharma products. Meat and dairy is less than 5%.

Yeah. I'm not actually disagreeing with you. It's just that there's been a hige increase in beef and dairy exports to there lately. Dairy to Belgium increased fivefold from January to July.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting when flicking onto RTE News to come across a report on DFA papers released by the Royal Irish Academy - the main concerns in 1957-61 were how Anglo-Irish relations would be affected by Europe, the Border, and unionist fears of annexation!

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1112/1009881-eec-documents/

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. I'm not actually disagreeing with you. It's just that there's been a hige increase in beef and dairy exports to there lately. Dairy to Belgium increased fivefold from January to July.

Long may it continue. But the starting point must have been very small as the meat and dairy exports to Belgium combined
was less than $300 million in 2017. The question is though: How can our industries shift markets away from the UK ASAP?

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. I'm not actually disagreeing with you. It's just that there's been a hige increase in beef and dairy exports to there lately. Dairy to Belgium increased fivefold from January to July.

Long may it continue. But the starting point must have been very small as the meat and dairy exports to Belgium combined
was less than $300 million in 2017. The question is though: How can our industries shift markets away from the UK ASAP?

Looking at the PDF that the CSO released today, exports to GB were in single digit percentages for five of the first eight months of the year, with Netherlands in particular recording a notable jump. Also, there was a huge spike in imports from Germany, suggesting companies are actively looking to reduce exposure in their supply chains.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the PDF that the CSO released today, exports to GB were in single digit percentages for five of the first eight months of the year, with Netherlands in particular recording a notable jump. Also, there was a huge spike in imports from Germany, suggesting companies are actively looking to reduce exposure in their supply chains.

Exports to the UK are down 5% overall in the first 7 months of this year. It's significant and a welcome trend if we gain other markets. However it's not nearly enough if they crash out. Also, the 5% is probably low hanging fruit.

RobMc59

McGiver wrote: »

I'd argue that the French "imperialism" is a of a different sort nowadays. Also, the French presence in Mali isn't invasion but supporting the local army/government against islamist insurgencies/militias from neighboring countries. That's a tad different than British invasion of Iraq. It's not fair to present Mali as something negative, it's actually quite positive. Without the french intervention, the state could have fallen into similar mess as Libya. also, you may know that France traditionally has strong West-African presence.
EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mali_conflict

French intervention in Mali is as you say a positive action-although they`ll probably have to get help off someone else if the UK crash out of Europe and be forced to withdraw their military currently supporting France in Mali.

Lemming

cml387 wrote: »

As a child of the cold war, it has got me thinking about how Britain had prepared for a nuclear exchange by planning food distribution post attack.
Probably off topic, if so I apologise, but it makes interesting reading

One aspect was the feeding of refugees from bombed cities, for which no plan was seemingly possible.

This bit is rather chilling:

More chilling is the comment to feed 25% of the population with no word on the other 75%; which fits with what I have read elsewhere that essentially is summed as "the more people die, the less mouths we have to feed". Very clinical thinking, and so coldly logical as to be utterly callous. The kindest thing you could do for yourself in the event of a nuclear "exchange" would be to stand as close to a large military base as possible before the nukes drop ...

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exports to the UK are down 5% overall in the first 7 months of this year. It's significant and a welcome trend if we gain other markets. However it's not nearly enough if they crash out. Also, the 5% is probably low hanging fruit.

I heard that further drops are coming in January when contracts expire and aren't renewed. And that's coming from our side. Exporters are actively cutting the UK out.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

I heard that further drops are coming in January when contracts expire and aren't renewed. And that's coming from our side. Exporters are actively cutting the UK out.

I know of one major company who is closing its UK branch, with the loss of 100 jobs, because they are "downsizing across the world" . And this is what is reported in the British press because this is what the company said. Except that I know for a fact they are closing because of Brexit.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I know of one major company who is closing its UK branch, with the loss of 100 jobs, because they are "downsizing across the world" . And this is what is reported in the British press because this is what the company said. Except that I know for a fact they are closing because of Brexit.

Who are they?

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Who are they?

I don't mean to be mysterious but I can't say. It would go against the corporate image and I don't want to betray a confidence.

Anthracite

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I know of one major company who is closing its UK branch, with the loss of 100 jobs, because they are "downsizing across the world" . And this is what is reported in the British press because this is what the company said. Except that I know for a fact they are closing because of Brexit.

The organisation I work with opened a Dublin office as EMEA HQ due to Brexit. We'll have 100 highly paid and highly skilled employees next year, potentially rising to thousands in the next decade. The originaly EU HQ, London, is just a local office now. Thanks, Brexit!

Professor Moriarty

Anthracite wrote: »

The organisation I work with opened a Dublin office as EMEA HQ due to Brexit. We'll have 100 highly paid and highly skilled employees next year, potentially rising to thousands in the next decade. The originaly EU HQ, London, is just a local office now. Thanks, Brexit!

A different company as their Irish operation will remain the same size but there's obviously a trend. It's some mitigation for the madness that is Brexit.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062093733716471808

Did anyone think one think 2 1/2 years ago that one of the potential causes for a hard brexit was no one wants to get up early on a Wednesday for a meeting.

RobMc59

The problem that might emerge for the EU from a hard Brexit is that after a period of uncertainty and taking a major hit a resurgent UK regroups (rather like russia)-the EU would have no control over what may be a more attractive proposition to nations wavering about EU membership (and there are a few).

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

The problem that might emerge for the EU from a hard Brexit is that after a period of uncertainty and taking a major hit a resurgent UK regroups (rather like russia)-the EU would have no control over what may be a more attractive proposition to nations wavering about EU membership (and there are a few).

Would the UK be offering these counties some sort of trade deal? Otherwise I don't see the advantage to them?

RobMc59

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Would the UK be offering these counties some sort of trade deal? Otherwise I don't see the advantage to them?

If the EU has no control over the UK and if after a hard brexit they regroup and do well other countries may be tempted to also leave the EU-that's what I'm suggesting.

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

The problem that might emerge for the EU from a hard Brexit is that after a period of uncertainty and taking a major hit a resurgent UK regroups (rather like russia)-the EU would have no control over what may be a more attractive proposition to nations wavering about EU membership (and there are a few).

For the likes of Montenegro, Bosnia etc, it's as much as seeking a counterbalance to Russian influence than any issues about sovereignty.

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

The problem that might emerge for the EU from a hard Brexit is that after a period of uncertainty and taking a major hit a resurgent UK regroups (rather like russia)-the EU would have no control over what may be a more attractive proposition to nations wavering about EU membership (and there are a few).

For the likes of Montenegro, Bosnia etc, it's as much as seeking a counterbalance to Russian influence than any issues about sovereignty.

RobMc59 wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Would the UK be offering these counties some sort of trade deal? Otherwise I don't see the advantage to them?

If the EU has no control over the UK and if after a hard brexit they regroup and do well other countries may be tempted to also leave the EU-that's what I'm suggesting.

The Western members would have to go through the hassle of re-establishing their own currencies, while the Eastern ones are all net beneficiaries.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

For the likes of Montenegro, Bosnia etc, it's as much as seeking a counterbalance to Russian influence than any issues about sovereignty.

Well, Jacob Rees Mogg thinks it could take fifty years before Britain reaps the economic benefits of Brexit. And I believe everything he says.

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the EU has no control over the UK and if after a hard brexit they regroup and do well other countries may be tempted to also leave the EU-that's what I'm suggesting.

The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. Perhaps after Brexit they regroup. This certainly can't be said for the likes of Poland or most other European countries

An Ciarraioch

NZ embassy opened here tonight:

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-zealand-opens-first-irish-embassy-in-preparation-for-brexit-884922.html

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

The problem that might emerge for the EU from a hard Brexit is that after a period of uncertainty and taking a major hit a resurgent UK regroups (rather like russia)

Like Russia ? :eek:

Maybe not the best example! A country with enormous reserves of coal, gas, oil, land, water, minerals and other resources, and yet struggles to maintain a GDP of about half that of the pre-Brexit UK


Besides, if either or both NI and Scotland dis-unite themselves from the Kingdom, they won't be going back. NI would obviously be integrated into the RoI, and an independent Scotland would presumably have all the advantages of full EU membership. What would be left to regroup?