Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Captain Obvious

joe40 wrote: »

Considering how negatively a no deal brexit would affect ireland would it be worth allowing some border controls to ensure a deal.
I'm a cross border worker rep to north, so would be personally affected.
But I'm also severly affected by the collapse in sterling which is essentially a massive paycut.
An exchange rate of about 1.30 euro to 1 pound is needed to keep prices and wages comparable

I think you are kind of ignoring the significance of a hard border. I'm old enough to remember being taken from a car at gun point as a boy with my family for a search. And I'd imagine that's a fairly tame memory in comparison to many. In addition to that, I think it would be political suicide to be the party that agrees to partition the country again.

Kermit.de.frog

Very important point. Macron already said he alone would not attend any November summit without decisive progress by tomorrow.

It is VERY possible EU leaders could call a no deal summit tomorrow for November as the effect would be to terrify British politicians and businesses in to getting real.

First Up

murphaph wrote: »

Exactly and post hard Brexit the money simply won't be there to maintain those levels of subsidy.

Well the EU's bit will disappear for sure. We'll find out how deeply the UK feels about it.

joe40

Captain Obvious wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

Considering how negatively a no deal brexit would affect ireland would it be worth allowing some border controls to ensure a deal.
I'm a cross border worker rep to north, so would be personally affected.
But I'm also severly affected by the collapse in sterling which is essentially a massive paycut.
An exchange rate of about 1.30 euro to 1 pound is needed to keep prices and wages comparable

I think you are kind of ignoring the significance of a hard border. I'm old enough to remember being taken from a car at gun point as a boy with my family for a search. And I'd imagine that's a fairly tame memory in comparison to many. In addition to that, I think it would be political suicide to be the party that agrees to partition the country again.

I remember those days only too well. I was a teenager during the 80s. Any border infrastructure would be a disaster, but so would a no deal brexit. I just wonder have the irish government secretly countenanced the idea. I can imagine other EU countries secretly thinking that.
I just don't think there would be a return to the violence of before on the same scale but it would definitely flare up, but the numbers taking part would be small.

Asmooh

joe40 wrote: »

Captain Obvious wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

Considering how negatively a no deal brexit would affect ireland would it be worth allowing some border controls to ensure a deal.
I'm a cross border worker rep to north, so would be personally affected.
But I'm also severly affected by the collapse in sterling which is essentially a massive paycut.
An exchange rate of about 1.30 euro to 1 pound is needed to keep prices and wages comparable

I think you are kind of ignoring the significance of a hard border. I'm old enough to remember being taken from a car at gun point as a boy with my family for a search. And I'd imagine that's a fairly tame memory in comparison to many. In addition to that, I think it would be political suicide to be the party that agrees to partition the country again.

I remember those days only too well. I was a teenager during the 80s. Any border infrastructure would be a disaster, but so would a no deal brexit. I just wonder have the irish government secretly countenanced the idea. I can imagine other EU countries secretly thinking that.
I just don't think there would be a return to the violence of before on the same scale but it would definitely flare up, but the numbers taking part would be small.

Sure? Think the IRA will target everyone and everything non Irish.
UK could still charge Ireland for using UK outlets, rhd cars, UK style busses etc

joe40

In terms of northern Ireland economy, it is totally false. The % working in the public sector is ridiculously high compared with private sector.
Money was thrown at the province during the troubles. Revolution and poverty/unemployment go hand in hand.
That is slowly but significantly drying up. I work in education for over 20 years and the money available is a lot less, including salaries.
Without British support/handouts there would be a strong economic argument for a united Ireland. It is amazing how many even northern nationalists don't seem to realise that

Niska

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

We don't have an RHI scheme in place here.

We will - ssrh (Support Scheme Renewable Heat)

https://www.seai.ie/sustainable-solutions/support-scheme-renewable-/

prawnsambo

Asmooh wrote: »

Sure? Think the idea will target everyone and everything non Irish.
UK could still charge Ireland for using UK outlets, rhd cars, UK style busses etc

Not sure what you mean here?


RHD cars and buses aren't all manufactured in Britain. Afaik, our buses come from the Netherlands.

LuckyLloyd

joe40 wrote: »

Considering how negatively a no deal brexit would affect ireland would it be worth allowing some border controls to ensure a deal.
I'm a cross border worker rep to north, so would be personally affected.
But I'm also severly affected by the collapse in sterling which is essentially a massive paycut.
An exchange rate of about 1.30 euro to 1 pound is needed to keep prices and wages comparable

Unfortunately it is due to fall a lot further as I don't think markets have properly countenanced a no deal scenario. That has a unique affect on those living and working across the jurisdictions, but it obviously cannot be a driving concern / priority of the EU in negotiations.

Leroy42

So let me see if I have this correct.

Up to 9 members of the cabinet met last night. Many have given very qualified support to the PM.
Yesterday, there was hardly any member of the HoC that stood up with TM strategy.

Today there is a meeting whereby they all agree (the cabinet) that the deal being offered by the EU is unacceptable, but have no ideas how or what to offer in return.
Despite TM being responsible for leading them to the position, they all are 100% behind her (today) and look forward to getting a deal because TM has a belief that they can.

Now, didn't TM say in her speech after the disaster of Salzburg that the EU needed to tell her what they didn't like about chequers (anyone else notice that word is never used anymore?) and make a counter offer. And the EU have done just that, to which TM has rejected it.

They have tied themselves in so many knots that they haven't a clue what they want.

prawnsambo

Yeah. Chequers is a dead parrot.

LuckyLloyd

They know exactly what they want - access to all the benefits of the SM and CU with none of the obligations or financial inputs. That's what they always wanted. It has *never* been on offer, can never be on offer and everything that has flowed since has been internal political nonsense due to a fundamental lack of acceptance.

Leroy42

So, originally we had the Lanchaster speech with it red lines and no NI border.

Then we had the two options, Max Fac and (jeez I can't even remember what they called the other one).

Then, they ditched both of them and came up with Chequers.

Now they have ditched chequers and haven't come up with any new plan but can't accept the EU one.

All within the space of 18 months. And TM gets offended when she thinks other people don't respect her?

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Asmooh wrote: »

Sure? Think the idea will target everyone and everything non Irish.
UK could still charge Ireland for using UK outlets, rhd cars, UK style busses etc

Not sure what you mean here?


RHD cars and buses aren't all manufactured in Britain. Afaik, our buses come from the Netherlands.

+1

EU rules say everyone has to offer RHD and LHD so complete non-issue.
Malta is also RHD.

Also these days generic consumer electricals are made in China. It's a long time since the UK was the workshop of the world, something a lot of Brexiteers forget.

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

+1

EU rules say everyone has to offer RHD and LHD so complete non-issue.
Malta is also RHD.

Also these days generic consumer electricals are made in China. It's a long time since the UK was the workshop of the world, something a lot of Brexiteers forget.

Yeah. A lot of what we buy from the UK, we buy for convenience sake. It's closer and quicker to get. But it's not because they have a monopoly.

trellheim

RHD cars and buses aren't all manufactured in Britain. Afaik, our buses come from the Netherlands.

Much of Dublin bus fleet comes from Wright Bus , who are based ironically enough in an estate just outside of Ballymena

Calina

Asmooh wrote: »

And I got a cheap room. Some months electricity was 300 EUR... That's the same I paid in Belfast in a year!

I have no idea how you managed to run up a monthly bill of 300e. I lived in Dublin until 2016 and paid approx 45e a month on a three bed house. Short of running a small factory in there I am not sure I could have run up 300e a month in electricity charges.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Much of Dublin bus fleet comes from Wright Bus , who are based ironically enough in an estate just outside of Ballymena

Actually I was wrong, Van Hool who used to make them are in Belgium.

Junkyard Tom

Changes to the Barnett Formula, interesting timing.



twitter.com/DefraGovUK

Junkyard Tom

Asmooh wrote: »

If you compare NI with IRE they are totally different.. we don't have housing crisis

If Britain crashes out of the EU the houses will come in handy for keeping livestock in with the wide-scale return to subsistence farming.

ilovesmybrick

Captain Obvious wrote: »

I think you are kind of ignoring the significance of a hard border. I'm old enough to remember being taken from a car at gun point as a boy with my family for a search. And I'd imagine that's a fairly tame memory in comparison to many. In addition to that, I think it would be political suicide to be the party that agrees to partition the country again.

Similarly my earliest memory of crossing the border was the car being surrounded at one of the check points by armed soldiers and my dad pointing out the snipers up in a bluff, and this was around the early to mid-1990's. And that wasn't even the high point of the troubles. I don't think anyone who experienced what the border actually was would be so flippant as to say the issues can be solved by technological solutions or that it's all in the past. Giving my age away a small bit, but I remember in fifth class we were talking about the IRA break in the cease fire around 97/98 in the bloody playground, and this was down in west Munster. Omagh was a particularly vivid memory as we had recently gotten cable so it was non stop on the TV. My younger brothers don't have those memories and I always hoped that the fact that the GFA had at the very least meant that kids in the republic wouldn't have to worry about such things. There are three years between me and the next sibling, and they don't have any such memories.

The house next door to us was used to house Catholics from the North who had to flee due to the violence up there. The last family had a young girl who came into our class in fourth class. She introduced herself by saying she was from Belfast and they had moved down because the previous month a firebomb had been thrown through the sitting room window in the middle of the night. I'm absolutely disgusted with how the UK has been handling this, they're so flippant about the very legitimate concerns and worries people, on both sides of the border, Protestants, Catholics, Republicans, and Unionists (bar the DUP) have about a renewed border.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So, originally we had the Lanchaster speech with it red lines and no NI border.

Then we had the two options, Max Fac and (jeez I can't even remember what they called the other one).

Then, they ditched both of them and came up with Chequers.

Now they have ditched chequers and haven't come up with any new plan but can't accept the EU one.

All within the space of 18 months. And TM gets offended when she thinks other people don't respect her?

A "Customs Partnership", the basis of which went on to become Chequers, with other stuff thrown in (like security cooperation) to flesh out a white paper.

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Similarly my earliest memory of crossing the border was the car being surrounded at one of the check points by armed soldiers and my dad pointing out the snipers up in a bluff, and this was around the early to mid-1990's.

I had similar experiences. But the worst I heard was from a friend of mine who used to travel across the border for a sport he was involved in, as did I. He mixed with all sorts including some RUC officers who were also involved and got on fine with them.

One evening coming back towards the border, he was stopped by a B specials checkpoint. They gave him a hard time with identification etc. and then sent him on his way. A few miles further on he was stopped again, by the same lads. More hassle and at this stage he's getting extremely nervous. When they eventually let him go on, he stops at the first pub he can find and phones one of his sporting mates; an RUC inspector. The guy told him to have a cup of coffee and not head back on the road for at least fifteen minutes.

He heads on again and sure enough is stopped by the same guys again. Their first words were to ask him what kept him. But before they can go any further a couple of RUC landrovers pull up and the B specials are divested of their weapons, their landrover and told to walk home. The RUC escort my friend to the border.

It was a terrifying experience and just one of thousands that people encountered every day.

Infini

I'll be honest way thing's are looking were looking at a "no-deal" scenario as a near certainty. The UK government is paralyzed by ideological, narrow minded idiots with zero interest for the common good. If anything the fact that the whole leave campaign investigation is being hit with political meddling show's that those who want this are outright after pure self interests. As for the UK itself too many people over there are too unwilling to accept reality and keep thinking things will be ok and not willing to contemplate the disastrous consequences that a no deal scenario truly entails.

The DUP are foolish to think that the "no surrender" tactic is going to benefit them in any long term plan. If anything a UI campaign might become unstoppable if the economic tanking of the UK become severe not to mention the added effect Scotland breaking away might have on this. This is truly the UK's moment of crowning idiocy.

eire4

prawnsambo wrote: »

I had similar experiences. But the worst I heard was from a friend of mine who used to travel across the border for a sport he was involved in, as did I. He mixed with all sorts including some RUC officers who were also involved and got on fine with them.

One evening coming back towards the border, he was stopped by a B specials checkpoint. They gave him a hard time with identification etc. and then sent him on his way. A few miles further on he was stopped again, by the same lads. More hassle and at this stage he's getting extremely nervous. When they eventually let him go on, he stops at the first pub he can find and phones one of his sporting mates; an RUC inspector. The guy told him to have a cup of coffee and not head back on the road for at least fifteen minutes.

He heads on again and sure enough is stopped by the same guys again. Their first words were to ask him what kept him. But before they can go any further a couple of RUC landrovers pull up and the B specials are divested of their weapons, their landrover and told to walk home. The RUC escort my friend to the border.

It was a terrifying experience and just one of thousands that people encountered every day.

I hear you. I am from Dublin but lived in Donegal for a couple of years growing up and I can remember guns beings pointed right in my face as we went through check points and one night especially that got very scary as their soldiers were clearly very nervous and twitchy. As another poster said any body who flippantly dismisses a hard border going back up never had to actually experience what that was.

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

I had similar experiences. But the worst I heard was from a friend of mine who used to travel across the border for a sport he was involved in, as did I. He mixed with all sorts including some RUC officers who were also involved and got on fine with them.

One evening coming back towards the border, he was stopped by a B specials checkpoint. They gave him a hard time with identification etc. and then sent him on his way. A few miles further on he was stopped again, by the same lads. More hassle and at this stage he's getting extremely nervous. When they eventually let him go on, he stops at the first pub he can find and phones one of his sporting mates; an RUC inspector. The guy told him to have a cup of coffee and not head back on the road for at least fifteen minutes.

He heads on again and sure enough is stopped by the same guys again. Their first words were to ask him what kept him. But before they can go any further a couple of RUC landrovers pull up and the B specials are divested of their weapons, their landrover and told to walk home. The RUC escort my friend to the border.

It was a terrifying experience and just one of thousands that people encountered every day.

Showing my years here as they were disbanded in 1970 after the 1969 Hunt report but they were a particularly nasty bunch of bigoted individuals. Hard core catholic hating unionist to a man with not all of them from NI. Quite a few from RoI border counties

ilovesmybrick

eire4 wrote: »

I hear you. I am from Dublin but lived in Donegal for a couple of years growing up and I can remember guns beings pointed right in my face as we went through check points and one night especially that got very scary as their soldiers were clearly very nervous and twitchy. As another poster said any body who flippantly dismisses a hard border going back up never had to actually experience what that was.

Thing is I remember clearly talking to my boss about the North (Italian, Sud Tyrol too which had it's share of issues) and casually mentioning the number of deaths during the troubles and she was shocked. I was quite happy to tell her that was in the past and fortunately I was of the last generation that would ever have such memories. I don't think even in the case of a hard border it will go back the way it was, but even the fact that they could risk the possibility of it again and that we're talking about it is mad.

Leroy42

It is not just that there are a number of zealots. They are also lead by a leader who, at best, is indecisive. She appears to have neither the cunning of the political charm required to bring people with her. That she identified Chequers as the way forward, and seen it completely and systemically torn to shreds should be enough to remove her.

One of the most significant projects undertaken in years and she has added nothing but confusion, about turns and deadends throughout.

On top of that, she allowed the likes of Johnson and Davies to actively work against her, and the governments, plans whilst they were in office. She put this down to wanting an open debate. Another failure.

If that wasn't enough, you have an opposition that it as divided as the government. Most of the parliamentary party do not either want or like the leader of the party. The party cannot agree on what outcome it wants from Brexit, and has now settled on the position that the worse it is the better as it increases their chances of getting into government.

So in effect you have the two main parties each working directly against the long term welfare of the country.

An Ciarraioch

UK Government and business checklists for "No Deal":

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/what-government-needs-do-prepare-no-deal-brexit

Captain Obvious

charlie14 wrote: »

Showing my years here as they were disbanded in 1970 after the 1969 Hunt report but they were a particularly nasty bunch of bigoted individuals. Hard core catholic hating unionist to a man with not all of them from NI. Quite a few from RoI border counties

Didn't they just join the UDR?