Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LuckyLloyd

Mc Love wrote: »

What are the chances, the EU will drag this out as long as possible, allowing the UK to hang with their own noose?

The EU have outlined the parameters of what it can accept from the outset, and have moved towards the UK position on a number of them finally appearing to settle in the last couple of weeks on its best offer. At every stage of the process the EU is the first to draft papers, legal text, etc.

The UK are dragging this out as long as possible, because they are hopelessly weak and divided.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well on the surface, they think it's a good thing because they've been told it is. That's maybe an over-simplification, but I've yet to engage a brexiter in any forum who's got even a modicum of understanding of the EU, what it is they dislike about the EU or even a coherent analysis of what they expect to achieve outside the EU.

They talk about the WTO without any knowledge of what that actually means. As if it's some kind of friendly trading bloc like eBay. And then there's the constant retort of "We'll put tariffs on EU goods". You could beat your head on a brick wall all day long trying to explain that they in fact will pay those tariffs.

Why is Corbyn in favour of leaving?-my own MP Frank Field who has proved himself to be a caring level headed politician imo -says brexit is best-this is very confusing.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

That doesn't mean that no deal is impossible.

OK, it's possible for a month until the Government which presided over it is ejected, someone halfway competent is installed, emergency measures are enacted to reverse it and negotiations restart.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why is Corbyn in favour of leaving?-my own MP Frank Field who has proved himself to be a caring level headed politician imo -says brexit is best-this is very confusing.

Corbyn has long been anti-EU. This is from the standpoint of anti-globalisation and anti-capitalism. Specifically the state aid rules of the EU make it easier to de-nationalise industries (and harder to nationalise) which is anathema to Corbyn. He's all for workers rights etc., but he's at heart an idealogue and something that doesn't match up to the socialist nirvana that he yearns for is automatically a bad thing. There are no grey areas for Corbyn except in his hair.

Leroy42

Negotiations restart? See I think this shows the problem (not your post, the view in the UK).

They really seem to think that it is simply down to TM not negotiating better. They may well be true, but on the substantive issues, there really is little in the way of negotiation. There are positions that the UK need to go with or reject.

Even during the weekend, JRM was writing about it being time to compromise. That he would be willing to pay £20bn to get a deal. As if that is even an option.

Any new government or PM will be faced with exactly the same issues as TM, yet the EU will having even more cards.

It is perfectly fine for people to diss TM's plans, but even at this stage they are offering no alternatives. Simply saying this is all terrible. Johnson, Davis, JRM and the others still have nothing to actually offer.

There was a former UK minister on 5live around 12 yesterday, saying that she cannot understand how a cabinet that approved the white paper back in July are suddenly all coming out saying TM deal is totally unacceptable.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

- the EU is still grappling with how to reconcile a single currency with member state fiscal and budgetary autonomy

This is the big one. The Euro cannot work long term in its current form. The people who set it up knew this. The idea was to get everyone bought in, and then, when they are too far in to pull out, they will have to enact closer integration to get the Euro to work properly. This has already started, with the ECB forced to become more like a real central bank, a lender of last resort.

More, closer integration is needed. It may wait until the next crisis, and then get pushed through, but it will come.

trellheim

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't buy into the notion that EU integration can only mean and end-state very much like the US, but with better coffee. Europe could be much more politically integrated than it is now, and still radically different from the US. But I would just point out that:

- there's an active dialogue under way about greater tax harmonisation (we've touched on it in this thread)

- Macron has uttered the words "EU army"

- the EU is still grappling with how to reconcile a single currency with member state fiscal and budgetary autonomy

- the Eu institutional arrangements are larded with structures and institutions created to accommodate UK exceptionalism, and already there's talk of a new treaty to streamline and simplify this once the UK is out of the picture

- etc, etc.

These things aren't going to go away. And now the discourse about them is going to proceed without the bracing dose of sceptical pragmatism that the UK used to bring to the table.

Good post. The massive brake on federalism (or whatever you want to call it ) that the UK applied will now be lost. Another treaty will bring a lot of pain for Ireland - you can bet some of our favourite cows will be sacrificed - how far will we go to protect the Corporate tax base vs losing autonomy somewhere else. The other thing is that a lot of the time we went along with the UK in lots of things in the EU ( think like the eurovision ) - you can see this gap trying to be filled with the New Hanseatic League guff.

Zubeneschamali

Mc Love wrote: »

What are the chances, the EU will drag this out as long as possible, allowing the UK to hang with their own noose?

The EU aren't dragging anything out - the deal is ready, says Barnier. He explicitly said the hold up is in May's cabinet, not in Brussels.

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why is Corbyn in favour of leaving?

Corbyn has long been anti-EU because the EU is run by pro-business neoliberals and technocrats. These folks would like to restrict Government spending and deficits, deregulate business and let competition sort things out.

Corbyn would like to increase Government spending, run a deficit when he likes, depreciate Sterling (hurts mainly the rich), regulate Banking with a heavy hand, nationalize everything and erect protectionist measures to protect low-paid British workers.

His plan seems to be to let the Tories Brexit, then win the following election and introduce a programme of Socialism.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Any new government or PM will be faced with exactly the same issues as TM, yet the EU will having even more cards.

Sure, but there are many perfectly sensible Brexit deals on the table. Barnier drew a Powerpoint slide last December showing them. The UK could have aimed for a Norway deal and concluded negotiations 6 months ago.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why is Corbyn in favour of leaving?-my own MP Frank Field who has proved himself to be a caring level headed politician imo -says brexit is best-this is very confusing.

Confusing?

There is nothing confusing about it. Corybn would sacrifice the jobs of every single consitutuient he has at the alter of brexit if it meant he could fulfill his dream of renationalsing anything he could get his hands on.

He's a mad idealogue and frankly no different to the ERG on the other side. He would gain personally from being the man that brought about renationalsing things. The ERG gain from bringing back the old empire sensibilities and making a wad load of cash off devastated assets



Meanwhile everyone else is in the middle.

There is nothing sensible about any labour MP who follows corybns line of thinking hence the 80 percent of labour voters looking for a second referendum.


Are you dismissing the 80 percent just as Corbyn has ? Because he's a lunatic and democracy is secondary to him.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1062276361145012224

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1062277131386937344

This is what we are dealing with...

A lot of Brexiteers and ministers believe this.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sure, but there are many perfectly sensible Brexit deals on the table. Barnier drew a Powerpoint slide last December showing them. The UK could have aimed for a Norway deal and concluded negotiations 6 months ago.

Sensible to you and me. But the reason none of them has been taken, and why TM went off on her Chequers bender, was that each of the available deals would also be voted down. Yet even the likes of the ERG have proposals that make no sense.

The example of the UK CU shows have utterly conflicted the UK are. The demand the EU give them something, and when they get it they claim the EU are trying to box them in. Simply because they are trying to resolve each issue, it would appear, as totally separate with no regard to the actual consequences on other parts.

It is pretty clear that there is no answer to Brexit that will get support. They want full brexit, but without having to pay anything, it has to be immediate yet have sufficient time, it must change everything yet nothing is going to change. Everything must be better without any cost to anyone and they must keep all the current trade deals until such time as they can think of better ones.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1062276361145012224

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1062277131386937344

This is what we are dealing with...

A lot of Brexiteers and ministers believe this.

The UK are openly tauting that they are going to renege on an international treaty, on the basis that they want to go forth and make international treaties across the globe!

Does Andrew explain how the UK are going to pay for the increase in security personal in NI because of this or whether they will accept a vote for a UI. Because if the GFA falls, as he seems to accept is a cost of Brexit, surely SF can immediately call for UI vote?

Peregrinus

Mc Love wrote: »

What are the chances, the EU will drag this out as long as possible, allowing the UK to hang with their own noose?

Zero. The EU isn't interested in seeing the UK hang; we're interested in minimising harm to the EU. There will be zero interest in extending the process unless there is strong reason to believe that doing so will lead to a better outcome for the EU - which, as of now, doesn't look very likely.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

More waffle from you. Really, just utter garbage. You once again ably demonstrate that know nothing of day to day life in Britain.

You project bizarre, twisted fantasies of a Britain you hope exists, which bear little likeness to reality.

I think I may have upset you again.

Folkstonian wrote:

Society is, categorically, not on the verge of ‘breaking down’.
I am back home very frequently and despite all the fireworks on rolling news and social media, life goes on much as it ever did before Brexit became a thing.

People go to Waitrose, queue at the post office, moan about the weather, have a pint after work on a Friday, and go to the football on a Saturday. Just as they have always done and as they will continue to do.

But life is very likely to not go on as before is the point. Fewer people will be going to Waitrose and more will be going to foodbanks, a problem which had grown under austerity and is likely to significantly increase under the New Austerity.

Folkstonian wrote:

It’s easy to be trapped into thinking that chaos and ruin are imminent and a dystopian future is inevitable, because you don’t actually have any frame of reference other than dramatic newspaper articles that would allow you to know what you are talking about

Quite presumptious of you. I have been to the UK many times and have many friends there. My sister lived in London for the best part of a decade and I visited her quite regularly.

Folkstonian wrote:

‘No go areas’ have been proven categorically to be a myth peddled by the far right, with the police denying their existence and demonstrating that they are a fabrication (unlike in some areas of France, Belgium and Sweden)

That's just not the case. There are certainly no go areas.

Folkstonian wrote:

The ‘horrifying stabbing/acid attack epidemic’ sounds like something out of a right wing publication as well. There is a lot of gang related violent crime, too much, but in general for the average person London remains exceptionally safe. The spike in acid throwing incidents has also gone back the other way. You won’t have to wear a set of goggles if you are planning on visiting sometime soon.

120 murders in London so far this year, which has already surpassed the 116 of last year. 69 of these have been fatal stabbings.

People are afraid to walk around at times for fear of muggings and knife crime.

London had 469 acid attacks last year. While not quite the 'Acid Attack Capital of the World', it is a disturbing figure. A heinous crime.

Folkstonian wrote:

Peter Hitchens is widely known to be an absolute fool. You are in a very small group of people who take his seriously, and an even smaller group if your understanding of british society comes almost exclusively from a near 2 decade old rambling interview of his.
See his bizarre and contemptible rants about police officers (and the public reaction to him) recently for a good idea of the nonsense he writes and how the people react to him nowadays.

Hitchens is most assuredly not a fool and has received plenty of recognition for his work.

Hitchens was described by Edward Lucas in The Economist as "a forceful, tenacious, eloquent and brave journalist. He lambasts woolly thinking and crooked behaviour at home and abroad".

While I dont agree with many of his views, he is fiercely intelligent and can't be dismissed so simply. He has long influenced discourse and currently writes for the Mail on Sunday (was onetime political editor for the Daily Express) and has for quite some time - he has a significant audience - it would be wrong to dismiss him, particularly if you want to understand why some people yearn for the Britain of old (one element which led to Brexit), which was the point I was trying to make before you became upset again.

Folkstonian wrote:

And just one more (although someone with more time could take a red pen to your drivel and go on for hours), as an ‘exporter and purveyor of culture’ Britain hasn’t decided to go quietly into the night just yet.
In fact, in 2018 it topped the ‘Soft Power 30’ list of countries, moving upwards and ahead of France which drops into second place. In their own words, when assessing a country’s soft power they look at ‘trade, capital, people, culture, education, and information’.
They clearly contend that Britain is dealing with globalisation pretty well and hasn’t ‘lost all influence and respect’ as you so claim.
Maybe you will google it and read up on how and why the contributors came to their conclusions, and maybe let us know why they are so different from your own.

Let's wait for next years update.

Folkstonian wrote:

Of course Britain has problems, inequality of wealth and opportunities is a serious issue. Austerity has gone too far and for too long. The current batch of politicians are a shadow of some of their predecessors. Violent crime is rising (although is significantly off its highest points from this century alone). No easy fixes and no quick ones either, for sure.

Thanks for acknowledging these points.

Folkstonian wrote:

But on the whole, things are fine. So well done for an awful post, drenched in hyperbole and hopeless ignorance.

...

Folkstonian wrote:

Such garbage on this thread in recent weeks has really made me quite introspective about my own sense of identity as a European.
Something I’d previously held quite dearly and certainly never questioned. I still see that through an economic lense, Brexit is a terrible and harmful endeavour.
But such is the tripe I see here routinely, maybe the fissures between Britain and Europe on a social level really do run too deep to be repaired, and maybe just the ‘getting on with it’ is the right thing to do for both sides.

Again, sorry to have upset you.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sensible to you and me. But the reason none of them has been taken, and why TM went off on her Chequers bender, was that each of the available deals would also be voted down.

May's deal is failing because she promised cake for everyone, and no deal can deliver it.

If she had started from a pragmatic, truthful position, taking the realistic options available, evaluating them and picking one, it'd all be over by now.

Yes, the ERG might vote against a Norway option, but a lot of Labour and Remain would back it as the least damaging option which is still Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

As an aside, has anyone bothered to read the Daily Mail at all? I'm curious as to how Geordie Greig's tenure is going. The Remainiacs podcast has noted a significant softening of the paper's stance to a more pragmatic viewpoint while sponsors targeting the middle classes like M&S have noted concern at the paper's tone.

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

i.e. the sponsors want a more pro Brexit / pro Tory message to be pushed and are concerned that the editorial stance is pivoting away from this?

I think it's more than they're concerned about Xenophobia and the possibility of a hard Brexit decimating their consumer base.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, has anyone bothered to read the Daily Mail at all? I'm curious as to how Geordie Greig's tenure is going. The Remainiacs podcast has noted a significant softening of the paper's stance to a more pragmatic viewpoint while sponsors targeting the middle classes like M&S have noted concern at the paper's tone.

i.e. the sponsors want a more pro Brexit / pro Tory message to be pushed and are concerned that the editorial stance is pivoting away from this?

prawnsambo

I'm gobsmacked. This thread seems to have gone through a wormhole in the space/time continuum. Ancapailldorcha has replied to a post that was posted after his reply. My mind has boggled, it's a strange feeling. :eek:

Folkstonian

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think I may have upset you again.



But life is very likely to not go on as before is the point. Fewer people will be going to Waitrose and more will be going to foodbanks, a problem which had grown under austerity and is likely to significantly increase under the New Austerity.



Quite presumptious of you. I have been to the UK many times and have many friends there. My sister lived in London for the best part of a decade and I visited her quite regularly.



That's just not the case. There are certainly no go areas.



120 murders in London so far this year, which has already surpassed the 116 of last year. 69 of these have been fatal stabbings.

People are afraid to walk around at times for fear of muggings and knife crime.

London had 469 acid attacks last year. While not quite the 'Acid Attack Capital of the World', it is a disturbing figure. A heinous crime.



Hitchens is most assuredly not a fool and has received plenty of recognition for his work.

Hitchens was described by Edward Lucas in The Economist as "a forceful, tenacious, eloquent and brave journalist. He lambasts woolly thinking and crooked behaviour at home and abroad".

While I dont agree with many of his views, he is fiercely intelligent and can't be dismissed so simply. He has long influenced discourse and currently writes for the Mail on Sunday (was onetime political editor for the Daily Express) and has for quite some time - he has a significant audience - it would be wrong to dismiss him, particularly if you want to understand why some people yearn for the Britain of old (one element which led to Brexit), which was the point I was trying to make before you became upset again.



Let's wait for next years update.



Thanks for acknowledging these points.



...



Again, sorry to have upset you.

Yes, let us indeed wait for the next data to be released that might back up your absurd claims, because the most current data sets available certainly do not. At least you tacitly acknowledge that.

You don’t upset me, but your motivations do intrigue me. You are a sensationalist and a fantasist.

flatty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, has anyone bothered to read the Daily Mail at all? I'm curious as to how Geordie Greig's tenure is going. The Remainiacs podcast has noted a significant softening of the paper's stance to a more pragmatic viewpoint while sponsors targeting the middle classes like M&S have noted concern at the paper's tone.

My take on this is that the owners, having achieved their aim, are gently untying themselves from the brexit anchor, as their readership may be a little miffed when the waitrose trips are rationed. I think it's a tactical and planned manoeuvre.
The main problem here really is that, by and large, remainders are more moderate, less vociferous, and less nasty than the brexit brigade. In times of uncertainty, the silent majority get shafted.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yes, let us indeed wait for the next data to be released that might back up your absurd claims, because the most current data sets available certainly do not. At least you tacitly acknowledge that.

I acknowledge nothing of the sort. I didn't challenge your evidence that the UK was recognised as being a leader in soft power.

It's my belief that this soft power is sharply on the wane as the UK self immolates in Brexit.

Folkstonian wrote:

You don’t upset me, but your motivations do intrigue me. You are a sensationalist and a fantasist.

I'm motivated by a lot of things: curiousity, self-interest, desire for my country to get through the imposition of Brexit with as little damage as possible, anger at Brexit and the attitude of the Brexiteers, and concern for the future of Ireland, the EU and the UK in these matters.

I'm afraid you are just very defensive and seem to take criticism of the UK very badly. Brexit is hardly a fantasy of mine, it's more like a long, drawn out nightmare. I also reject that I am a sensationalist, Brexit is a catastrophe.

Mc Love

If you get a chance today, give this a listen, very good debate and mildly amusing with some of the responses from Kate Hoey & Suzanne Evans. Think Ian Dunt a self confessed euro-sceptic does a good job at defending the remain side or showing the difficulties faced by Brexit.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1062073508958597123?s=20

CelticRambler

prawnsambo wrote: »

This thread seems to have gone through a wormhole in the space/time continuum. Ancapailldorcha has replied to a post that was posted after his reply.

This his how Brexit is going to work - the UK is counting on having all the advantages of its future (1973) EU membership before unjoining in 2019! :cool:


In a Sky interview earlier today, I heard a Conservative Leaver say that "some people" have been waiting 40 years for to reverse the decision to join the EU ... while then rejecting the recent Channel 4 polls that suggest some other people - all Labour constituencies - might have changed their mind about leaving.



Having had a break from Brexit coverage for two months, it's painful to listen to the hypocrisy and ignorance spouted by Leavers. But the "well, let's just get on with it" from Remainers is just as bad.

bilston

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, has anyone bothered to read the Daily Mail at all? I'm curious as to how Geordie Greig's tenure is going. The Remainiacs podcast has noted a significant softening of the paper's stance to a more pragmatic viewpoint while sponsors targeting the middle classes like M&S have noted concern at the paper's tone.

The fact that Geordie Greig is a Remainer probably explains the softening tone.

Edit - it's a pity he wasn't appointed editor 2 1/2 years ago.

Leroy42

bilston wrote: »

The fact that Geordie Greig is a Remainer probably explains the softening tone.

Edit - it's a pity he wasn't appointed editor 2 1/2 years ago.

Greig was appointed in order to soften the tone. It was a deliberate editorial decision to change from a hard brexit supporting stance.

It is not be accident that the previous editor was in charge throughout the last number of years.

Muck like UKIP, the goal of Brexit has been achieved, along with the painting of a No deal as acceptable.

Now is the time to start moving sides to distance oneself from the many negatives that will result and allow them to claim to be on the peoples side when the pain starts.

Thatnastyboy

Trying to price work here for Q2 2019,

With significant componentry required to be purchased from the UK starting in April..


Crystal ball stuff - how does one allow for anything at the moment?

fash

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Trying to price work here for Q2 2019,

With significant componentry required to be purchased from the UK starting in April..


Crystal ball stuff - how does one allow for anything at the moment?

Include a brexit clause in the contract with your customer - otherwise a significant time and cost margin. A deal means sterling could increase 10-15%. No deal means a drop of the same amount with potential impact on delivery schedules (especially if they themselves have supply chains)
Who knows the current likelihood of a deal - 50/50? 33%? 66?