Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Thatnastyboy

fash wrote: »

Include a brexit clause in the contract with your customer - otherwise a significant time and cost margin. A deal means sterling could increase 10-15%. No deal means a drop of the same amount with potential impact on delivery schedules (especially if they themselves have supply chains)
Who knows the current likelihood of a deal - 50/50? 33%? 66?

Exactly, it's going to need to be a full opt out clause by the looks of it.

It's a commodity too so will undoubtedly be affected by anything less than a good deal..

Probably not the right thread for it here though,

Best to let them "get on with it" I suppose

Hurrache

So this is being reported. In an ordinary world you'd be thinking WTF, but it's par for the course with these negotiations.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1062270469699764225

Zubeneschamali

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

how does one allow for anything at the moment?

Pay in Euros?

Professor Moriarty

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Trying to price work here for Q2 2019,

With significant componentry required to be purchased from the UK starting in April..


Crystal ball stuff - how does one allow for anything at the moment?

The moment that sterling nosedives suddenly and dramatically is when you know a hard Brexit is coming.

An Ciarraioch

Darran Marshall with the full poll results from Nolan/Byrne Live:

http://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1062122474018627584

prawnsambo

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Exactly, it's going to need to be a full opt out clause by the looks of it.

It's a commodity too so will undoubtedly be affected by anything less than a good deal..

Probably not the right thread for it here though,

Best to let them "get on with it" I suppose

Is the commodity not available elsewhere in the EU?

kowtow

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Trying to price work here for Q2 2019,

With significant componentry required to be purchased from the UK starting in April..


Crystal ball stuff - how does one allow for anything at the moment?

You can hedge the sterling now to knock out that risk.

Other than that ... Brexit clause. Don't forget to recover the hedging costs in the event of cancellation.

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

So this is being reported. In an ordinary world you'd be thinking WTF, but it's par for the course with these negotiations.

Raab is just setting up his resignation from cabinet when he can't back the deal.

And in fairness, Raab did not negotiate the deal. Olly Robbins negotiated the deal. May took personal control of the negotiations when Davis resigned, and appointed Raab as, well, messenger boy, really.

listermint

prawnsambo wrote: »

Is the commodity not available elsewhere in the EU?

This.

I would be sourcing from elsewhere, were the price can be obtained with a relative stability even if its slightly more expensive, you are paying for that reassurance

Seth Brundle

A Fort Knox in Dublin?
Dublin broker opens new vault for gold bars exiting London due to Brexit

GoldCore, the Dublin-based precious metals broker, has opened Ireland’s first institutional-grade gold storage vault amid hopes that there’ll be a mini gold rush of investors moving bars to Dublin from London as they prepare for Brexit.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/dublin-broker-opens-new-vault-for-gold-bars-exiting-london-due-to-brexit-1.3696238

prawnsambo

listermint wrote: »

This.

I would be sourcing from elsewhere, were the price can be obtained with a relative stability even if its slightly more expensive, you are paying for that reassurance

Shipping costs would probably also be a factor, but again they're quantifiable and stable. I suppose the best approach is to source elsewhere in the EU and make a comparison with a worst case scenario for brexit. At least then, you'd be sure enough as to which is the best option.

The problem for imports is that there could be tariffs on top of the cost and also customs clearance fees. So those would need to be quantified as well. Then factor in any currency fluctuation and possible price rises. If the commodity has EU content, then you have to factor in possible delays as they transit into the UK as well. And there's probably a whole lot more I haven't thought of.

Thatnastyboy

prawnsambo wrote: »

Is the commodity not available elsewhere in the EU?

It is as such yes, but, Ireland is aligned with british standards for this commodity, and the way this commodity is provided from the UK is different to how it's provided from the EU (different production methods & 'sizes') the clients design uses the british stuff..

listermint wrote: »

This.

I would be sourcing from elsewhere, were the price can be obtained with a relative stability even if its slightly more expensive, you are paying for that reassurance

As above, this is a pickle, as its a particularly british form - but I cant see any competitors having any luxury over me, just going to put a full-review clause in it. Best way for everyone..


*edit - the certification for this commodity will also cease to exist in a no-deal, so wouldn't be of use to anyone to even try allow for procurement of it post no-deal brexit...

ancapailldorcha

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yes, let us indeed wait for the next data to be released that might back up your absurd claims, because the most current data sets available certainly do not. At least you tacitly acknowledge that.

You don’t upset me, but your motivations do intrigue me. You are a sensationalist and a fantasist.

Don't insult other posters.

PeadarCo

Hurrache wrote:

So this is being reported. In an ordinary world you'd be thinking WTF, but it's par for the course with these negotiations.

This is the same person who didn't understand how important the Dover calais route is to UK trade. So you would question does Raab actually understand the potential consequences of a no deal.

The UK political system is a mess. Its a massive indictment of Labour, Corbyn and the lib dems that they are not hammering the Tories in polls. With the way Raab has been behaving he would too far fetched for Monty python. As you say the whole situation has a surreal element.

Leroy42

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

It is as such yes, but, Ireland is aligned with british standards for this commodity, and the way this commodity is provided from the UK is different to how it's provided from the EU (different production methods & 'sizes') the clients design uses the british stuff..

This is interesting. Will Brexit force us to move away from our traditional dependence on the UK, and with it the standards? If extra tariffs/delays on UK sourced products will this lead to a gradual move away from this market to continental Europe?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is interesting. Will Brexit force us to move away from our traditional dependence on the UK, and with it the standards? If extra tariffs/delays on UK sourced products will this lead to a gradual move away from this market to continental Europe?

I think we are in a much stronger position now than in the past when it comes to developing standards. That being said, I hope we get to a position where we can trade within Europe as normal but continue (resume) our trading and general relationship with the UK as it is now.

Worst case for Ireland is that we lose a lot of the closeness which we had with the UK (as well as the trade) and then the EU start to try to move again on consistent tax regimes and use their support of our border here as a bargaining tool in those conversations.

joe40

Am I right in thinking all the negotiations going on at the moment are only to allow progress from brexit to the transition phase.

They haven't even started to discuss possible trade deals/regulations for a full post Brexit situation.

Also with all the talk of a second referendum, would the EU allow the UK just to remain and forget about the last 2 years if the second referendum was for remain. Article 50 has been triggered after all.

Leroy42

Part of the current negotiations are around the basis for a trade deal after Brexit day. The UK want to include an agreement as the outline of a future trade deal, they are looking, AFAIK, for quite a bit of detail.

The EU have been against that saying the WA is separate from a trade deal and the trade deal can only be after Brexit.

prawnsambo

joe40 wrote: »

Am I right in thinking all the negotiations going on at the moment are only to allow progress from brexit to the transition phase.

Simple answer is yes. But this stage is vital as it's the withdrawal agreement which deals with existing commitments that have to be discharged and locked down.

joe40 wrote: »

They haven't even started to discuss possible trade deals/regulations for a full post Brexit situation.

They've been trying to. A lot of time wasted trying to make end runs around Barnier and start trade negotiations that the A50 process doesn't include. A50 does allow for the agreement of a "framework for a future relationship" but that's a political statement that isn't binding. Most commentators believe that atual trade negotiations with the EU for a FTA could take as much as eight years.

joe40 wrote: »

Also with all the talk of a second referendum, would the EU allow the UK just to remain and forget about the last 2 years if the second referendum was for remain. Article 50 has been triggered after all.

There are certainly opinions that the whole thing can be stopped by withdrawal of the Article 50 notice. It may require unainmous approval from the EU 27, but it's not been ruled out as an option.

Tell me how

joe40 wrote: »

Also with all the talk of a second referendum, would the EU allow the UK just to remain and forget about the last 2 years if the second referendum was for remain. Article 50 has been triggered after all.

They really don't want to do that. They would accept a deal with a transition period which to all intents and purpose is just facilitating continuation of current norms while negotiations progress but the 2 years has to be seen as being adhered to.

That's why there is such talk of a No Deal scenario.

kowtow

EU Commission now proposing change to law that would allow visa free travel for UK citizens (and vice versa) in EU. Short stay only.

Specific measure to apply in the case of NO deal as well as more orderly circumstances.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Simple answer is yes. But this stage is vital as it's the withdrawal agreement which deals with existing commitments that have to be discharged and locked down.

They've been trying to. A lot of time wasted trying to make end runs around Barnier and start trade negotiations that the A50 process doesn't include. A50 does allow for the agreement of a "framework for a future relationship" but that's a political statement that isn't binding. Most commentators believe that atual trade negotiations with the EU for a FTA could take as much as eight years.


There are certainly opinions that the whole thing can be stopped by withdrawal of the Article 50 notice. It may require unainmous approval from the EU 27, but it's not been ruled out as an option.

Looking at article 50 it says it's written in such an ambiguous way that it probably could be reversed. In addition to this France and Germany have said if Britain comes to its senses and changes it mind it can stay on the same terms.

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

EU Commission now proposing change to law that would allow visa free travel for UK citizens (and vice versa) in EU. Short stay only.

Specific measure to apply in the case of NO deal as well as more orderly circumstances.

tbh they should have left that until after a deal.

I think there needs to be a sharp shock felt as to what was voted for rather than the EU bending its rules to appease.

it could have been done post March

Tell me how

RobMc59 wrote: »

Looking at article 50 it says it's written in such an ambiguous way that it probably could be reversed. In addition to this France and Germany have said if Britain comes to its senses and changes it mind it can stay on the same terms.

If that were to happen, it would embolden euro-sceptics across the continent.

They would argue that negotiations on a WA were hamstrung to ensure that they remained and also that that indicated just how powerful the EU now is that countries cannot even leave when they want to.

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

If that were to happen, it would embolden euro-sceptics across the continent.

They would argue that negotiations on a WA were hamstrung to ensure that they remained and also that that indicated just how powerful the EU now is that countries cannot even leave when they want to.

They could say it, but would anyone actually believe it? This process has played out in the full glare of the media. There must be entire forests of reportage on the witterings of UK government ministers opening their mouths to change feet. I'm sure there will be some who'll deny the facts for political purposes, but we've been saturated with this stuff for over two years.

kowtow

Tell me how wrote: »

If that were to happen, it would embolden euro-sceptics across the continent.

They would argue that negotiations on a WA were hamstrung to ensure that they remained and also that that indicated just how powerful the EU now is that countries cannot even leave when they want to.

I'm about as euro-sceptic as one can be in this country without being sectioned, and even I cannot conceive of a country which can possibly think that leaving the EU voluntarily is a viable option after watching the events of the last couple of years!

There'll be a big push now for further integration on a number of different fronts, and - personally - I think populations & politicians are going to acquiesce much more easily than we might all have thought at one stage.

Brexit will be a source of both leverage and political cover for those who favour "more Europe" in Brussels and I think they are way too smart to squander it.

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote: »

They could say it, but would anyone actually believe it? This process has played out in the full glare of the media. There must be entire forests of reportage on the witterings of UK government ministers opening their mouths to change feet. I'm sure there will be some who'll deny the facts for political purposes, but we've been saturated with this stuff for over two years.

I would like to think that common sense would prevail. But the question is whose version of common sense would that be?

I am dumbfounded in many ways how some people can hold certain views (him who not be named across the water being a great President for example). But, in a democracy, majority rules (to all intent and purposes). I've said here previously, a large number of the general public in the UK still seem to strongly believe Brexit has to happen either because they always wanted out or because a democratic vote choose that route.

Telling them that experts have decided that it won't happen cannot end well.

RobMc59

Tell me how wrote: »

If that were to happen, it would embolden euro-sceptics across the continent.

They would argue that negotiations on a WA were hamstrung to ensure that they remained and also that that indicated just how powerful the EU now is that countries cannot even leave when they want to.

As in any divorce,why should the EU make it easy for the UK to leave?-the brexiteers are foolish to think the EU would have waved the UK off into the sunset merrily cherry picking as they go-so the EU wouldn't be forcing the UK to stay,just not rolling over.

First Up

kowtow wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

If that were to happen, it would embolden euro-sceptics across the continent.

They would argue that negotiations on a WA were hamstrung to ensure that they remained and also that that indicated just how powerful the EU now is that countries cannot even leave when they want to.

I'm about as euro-sceptic as one can be in this country without being sectioned, and even I cannot conceive of a country which can possibly think that leaving the EU voluntarily is a viable option after watching the events of the last couple of years!

There'll be a big push now for further integration on a number of different fronts, and - personally - I think populations & politicians are going to acquiesce much more easily than we might all have thought at one stage.

Brexit will be a source of both leverage and political cover for those who favour "more Europe" in Brussels and I think they are way too smart to squander it.

The institutions in Brussels are facilitators, not a government. The member states decide how much Europe they want.

It isn't the EU's fault that the UK wanted less than anyone else, mostly because they didn't understand what they would lose by leaving.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

As in any divorce,why should the EU make it easy for the UK to leave?-the brexiteers are foolish to think the EU would have waved the UK off into the sunset merrily cherry picking as they go-so the EU wouldn't be forcing the UK to stay,just not rolling over.

It is easy for the UK to leave. It just had to trigger Article 50.

Sorting out what the Tory party wants, negotiating with the EU and beyond are all other stories, however.