Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

listermint · 13-11-2018 5:48pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Yes, that's what I said, but it does not equate to an agreement.

no one here has stated that is has?

Why point out the obvious..

murpho999 · 13-11-2018 5:51pm

DUP will go mad about this and bring the UK government down.

Professor Moriarty · 13-11-2018 5:51pm

murpho999 wrote: »

DUP will go mad about this and bring the UK government down.

Never mind the ERG hardliners.

Sam Russell · 13-11-2018 5:51pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Yes, that's what I said, but it does not equate to an agreement.

Well, it does on a take it or leave it basis.

Negotiators are plenipotentiary negotiators, otherwise there is no point in the negotiators. They have full authority to agree everything. The only alternative is a walk away.

Negotiations move along a list of discussion points, and as each is agreed it is not revisited. The end is now - all on the list has been agreed. Now it is deal or no deal.

RobMc59 · 13-11-2018 6:06pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So to get my head around this.

This implies that regardless of whatever happens NI would remain in the SM and large parts of the CU effectively in perpetuity...either if GB diverges or the FTA, when it comes, is not deep enough to prevent a hard border?

That's my reading based on RTE's report.

It may be they've agreed to disagree and are letting everyone know the situation to stop speculation.

Hurrache · 13-11-2018 6:12pm

listermint wrote: »

no one here has stated that is has?

Why point out the obvious..

..

Panrich wrote: »

I'm worried that RTE and Tony Connolly might be setting up a reprise of last December by publicising an agreement before the pen is put to paper.

Itssoeasy · 13-11-2018 6:13pm

Sammy Wilson on BBC five live now and he's not seen any text yet. I imagine their mood may change when they see the text.

RobMc59 · 13-11-2018 6:13pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

I would imagine so. Would be a major problem if it went through the cabinet only for us to reject it.

Why would Ireland reject it and risk being the villain who scuppered a deal which is acceptable to both sides-they would probably be advised to fall in line by the rest of the EU.

Hurrache · 13-11-2018 6:14pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, it does on a take it or leave it basis.

Negotiators are plenipotentiary negotiators, otherwise there is no point in the negotiators. They have full authority to agree everything. The only alternative is a walk away.

Negotiations move along a list of discussion points, and as each is agreed it is not revisited. The end is now - all on the list has been agreed. Now it is deal or no deal.

Yes, but the ultimate hurdle is parliament, no matter what powers the negotiators have been giving during the negotiations themselves. And with what has been happening over there recently the agreed text is the easiest step at this point in the negotiations.

kunst nugget · 13-11-2018 6:18pm

Could it make it through the British parliament but end up being vetoed by one of the EU27?

prawnsambo · 13-11-2018 6:19pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would Ireland reject it and risk being the villain who scuppered a deal which is acceptable to both sides-they would probably be advised to fall in line by the rest of the EU.

The only reason we would reject it, is if it caused a problem at the border. The UK have been trying all sorts of sleight of hand to try and get around the backstop, including the ludicrous time-limited backstop. So if something like that were to turn up in the agreement, of course we would reject it.

trellheim · 13-11-2018 6:22pm

Could it make it through the British parliament but end up being vetoed by one of the EU27?

Yes (actually I was wrong its not its QMV !!!! ) - e.g. Denmark if the fishing rights are not to their liking

Here's what has to happen

cut from https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/key-eu-policy-areas/brexit_en

when all phases are concluded successfully, the Union negotiator will propose a Withdrawal Agreement to the Council and the European Parliament.

The Parliament must give its consent through a simple majority vote, including from UK MEPs.

The Council will conclude the agreement and under the Treaty on European Union this can be done by a vote of strong qualified majority (i.e. 20 countries representing 65% of the EU27 population).

The UK must also approve the agreement according to its own constitutional arrangements.

If there is no agreement reached the EU Treaties will simply cease to apply to the UK.

serfboard · 13-11-2018 6:24pm

So the "Deal" has to pass cabinet and it has to pass Parliament.

I find it interesting that cabinet members are being brought in "one-by-one" - probably good thinking to get the ducks in a row before the cabinet meeting tomorrow. Anyone that wants to jump ship can do so now and be replaced overnight.

For Parliament, the equation for the PM is the following - for the deal she "May" have done, are:

Tory Remainers + A few Labour Rebel Remainers + SNP(?) + Lib Dems > Tory Leavers (including ERG) + Labour Non-Cooperators + DUP ?

Labour Non-Cooperators means the bulk of the Labour Party who might agree but want a General Election anyway, so they will use the opportunity to bring the government down.

Labour Rebel Remainers are those whose constituencies voted heavily to remain, thus giving them a mandate to vote for a deal (or actually, against a no-deal).

I'm presuming that the SNP will also vote in favour of the deal, although I suppose that isn't guaranteed either.

Mr.Nice Guy · 13-11-2018 6:34pm

Boris Johnson on BBC News 24 just now:

"For the first time since partition Dublin will have more say over some aspects of Northern Ireland."

Says he'll certainly vote against it and it's vassal state stuff. If that's his take it's certainly the DUP's take.

Hurrache · 13-11-2018 6:35pm

Coveny has said negotiations are still ongoing due to unresolved issues and won't be commenting further on rumours in the media, probably just a case of saying nothing until everything is signed.

Itssoeasy · 13-11-2018 6:39pm

Any word from Arlene foster in her self appointed role(she isn't first minister) of speaking for Northern Ireland ?

Mr.Nice Guy · 13-11-2018 6:39pm

This was Mogg's take:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396439727390720

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396672389668869

Barnier echoing Coveney's more measured take on things but it looks like a DUP meltdown is imminent based on Mogg and Johnson's comments.

BoJack Horseman · 13-11-2018 6:39pm

The pro-EU May has played a blinder.

She's meeting each cabinet member individually to strong-arm them into agreement with her "brexit in name only" plan before having a tokenistic cabinet meeting to affirm what they were told to agree with the day before.

Very Malcom Tucker

Working class heroes · 13-11-2018 6:44pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This was Mogg's take:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396439727390720

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396672389668869

Barnier echoing Coveney's more measured take on things but it looks like a DUP meltdown is imminent based on Mogg and Johnson's comments.

Could be just a case of them trying to influence the DUP some way?
Maybe they got wind the DUP were on board and Mogg and Johnson are trying to scare them?
Just a thought based on nothing &#55357;&#56898;

littlemac1980 · 13-11-2018 6:44pm

trellheim wrote: »

Yes (actually I was wrong its not its QMV !!!! ) - e.g. Denmark if the fishing rights are not to their liking

Here's what has to happen

cut from https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/key-eu-policy-areas/brexit_en

I haven't had much chance to research, so I may be wrong, but I think that technically you are right re the "withdrawal agreement" - but practically speaking (as I understand it the real crux of the negotiations) is the "framework for its future relationship".

I think any future trade agreement needs to be unanimous and may be vetoed by any state - and this is essentially the future trade agreements re customs etc. - so I believe that this more or less gives the individual members a "de facto" veto on the withdrawal agreement, as if they aren't happy with the way that is handled they can veto any future trade agreement if the withdrawal agreement hasn't properly taken account of their (and the EU's interests from that members perspective).

judeboy101 · 13-11-2018 6:45pm

Anyone willing to do an eli5 on this deal? Is there a Ni backstop if uk jumps in 21 months post brexit day?

J Mysterio · 13-11-2018 6:45pm

Tony Connelly getting his recognition!

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396672389668869

Tell me how · 13-11-2018 6:46pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

Tony Connelly getting his recognition!

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1062396672389668869

And quite the counter to Chris Mason's I haven't the foggiest from earlier.

Junkyard Tom · 13-11-2018 6:48pm

Carl Dinnen @carldinnen

The leadership of the DUP and the ERG are briefing journalists now in Central
Lobby on their opposition to the proposed Withdrawal Agreement.

5:33 PM - 13 Nov 2018

[URL="_

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1062398112680079361"]twitter.com/carldinnen[/URL]

______________________________________________________

Crashed before it even gets off the runway?

J Mysterio · 13-11-2018 6:56pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Crashed before it even gets off the runway?

I hope not. I'm feeling a little optimistic that May might conceivably squeeze it through.

Once the Backstop is in place, they can do what they want, which I suspect might be their thinking too. No more pesky NI to frustrate the process.

Mr.Nice Guy · 13-11-2018 7:00pm

Boris wants a reaction tonight.

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1062402428291690496

Zubeneschamali · 13-11-2018 7:01pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Crashed before it even gets off the runway?

I expect 3-4 of the cabinet will resign overnight.

The wails from the DUP and ERG are just noise unless they vote against it in Parliament - a much riskier thing to do than complaining to the press.

They would love to vote against it and have it pass with Labour votes, best of both worlds for them, but there is the serious risk that if they vote against it, the deal will be voted down, and then what will they do?

The EU are going to say that's the deal we negotiated, take it or leave with no deal, no transition, nothing at all in March. Mad Max Brexit.

May could resign - but who will take her place? Would it be election time? If so, what would the Tories run as, leave or Remain? How about Labour?

Chaos!

kowtow · 13-11-2018 7:01pm

DUP saying it will "almost certainly" be voted down - leaving just a hair's breadth of space ... the red line, apparently, is "if there are any new checks in GB/ NI at all..."

littlemac1980 · 13-11-2018 7:06pm

kowtow wrote: »

DUP saying it will "almost certainly" be voted down - leaving just a hair's breadth of space ... the red line, apparently, is "if there are any new checks in GB/ NI at all..."

Of course there will be new checks! Especially if there is no deal - everyone will be checking the value of the pound every few minutes - that'll be new to them.

Inquitus · 13-11-2018 7:14pm

Boris's 2 cents

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1062400211551567872

JRM's 2 cents

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1062397090326867969

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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