Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

charlie14

Just listening to Tony Connelly on RTE News. Seems the only backstop is an all UK CU. If there isn`t an "unless and until" clause then we are in trouble here.

Dick Swiveller

Brexit betrayal. What a surprise.

Water John

There is now just one backstop. It is generally UK wide, with some special provision for NI down the road.
Probably rejected by HoC ,can pass Cabinet as anyone who chooses resigns tonight or tomorrow to be replaced by new Ministers.
There will be lots to play for after HoC rejection. Not straight into crash out Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

charlie14 wrote: »

Just listening to Tony Connelly on RTE News. Seems the only backstop is an all UK CU. If there isn`t an "unless and until" clause then we are in trouble here.

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945


Seems those words are there.


The NI specific elements are thought to be significant. Have to wait for the actual text though. NI would remain in the Single Market.

Hurrache

Anyone hear if the vote is due during tomorrow's parliamentary session?

BonnieSituation

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Hopefully this is the case. Loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson is suggesting otherwise but I'd be sceptical of this:

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1062423123193139200

A lot of smoke and mirrors going on. Plays into the familiar DUP tactic that if things seem bad for us, it's even worse for them.

I really wish people would not preface any ramblings of Mr Bryson with "Loyalist Blogger" in order to give him some legitimacy.

If you knew of the man's history and abject absence of anything approaching what we would label as "intelligence" you wouldn't be so quick to post his guff.

That's not the first time he's popped up here. I couldn't let it slide this time.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Anyone hear if the vote is due during tomorrow's parliamentary session?

That's unlikely surely. Parliament hasn't even seen the text yet.

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945


Seems those words are there.


The NI specific elements are thought to be significant. Have to wait for the actual text though. NI would remain in the Single Market.

Saw that earlier and with ITV reporting they were so I was surprised when Tony Connelly didn`t mention it on the 9 news.
Serious problems for us if it is not there.

Water John

The only thing happening tomorrow is UK Cabinet meeting, also ROI Cabinet meeting. Doesn't seem that it will come before HoC maybe even for a few weeks.
TM will want to crank up the pressure and reduce the time for any alternative.
Her Deal or No Deal.

An Ciarraioch

charlie14 wrote: »

Just listening to Tony Connelly on RTE News. Seems the only backstop is an all UK CU. If there isn`t an "unless and until" clause then we are in trouble here.

Still there, it seems:

http://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945

Mr.Nice Guy

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I really wish people would not preface any ramblings of Mr Bryson with "Loyalist Blogger" in order to give him some legitimacy.

If you knew of the man's history and abject absence of anything approaching what we would label as "intelligence" you wouldn't be so quick to post his guff.

That's not the first time he's popped up here. I couldn't let it slide this time.

I'm well aware of Bryson. I listen regularly to the Nolan show and that is how Nolan introduces him whenever he is on his programme, so I did likewise.

Regardless of his often inane views, he is close to several DUP politicians.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945


Seems those words are there.


The NI specific elements are thought to be significant. Have to wait for the actual text though. NI would remain in the Single Market.

The DUP are definitely voting down the deal. Sammy Wilson told Sharon ni Bheolain on the Nine news they will vote against it (not that they 'may do', but that they have already made the decision to do it).

Mr.Nice Guy

Good piece by Fintan O'Toole on the latest goings on.

There is stark and overwhelming evidence that the English people who voted for Brexit do not, on the whole, care about the United Kingdom and in particular do not care about that part of it called Northern Ireland. When asked in the recent “Future of England” survey whether “the unravelling of the peace process in Northern Ireland” is a “price worth paying” for Brexit that allows them to “take back control,” fully 83 percent of Leave voters and 73 percent of Conservative voters in England agree that it is. This is not, surely, mere mindless cruelty; it expresses a deep belief that Northern Ireland is not “us,” that what happens “over there” is not “our” responsibility. Equally, in the Channel 4 survey, asked how they would feel if “Brexit leads to Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland,” 61 percent of Leave voters said they would be “not very concerned” or “not at all concerned.”

This may be startling but it is also a pretty clear message. The problem, though, is that no one in either of the two main parties wants to talk about it. In one of history’s little jokes, the English national revolution that is Brexit led to Northern Ireland’s small ultra-unionist Democratic Unionist Party holding the balance of power at Westminster and keeping Theresa May in office. Thus, while the people who voted for Brexit are waving goodbye to the UK, May—with, in this, the support of Labour—has turned up the volume on her declarations of love for the United Kingdom: “I will always fight to strengthen and sustain this precious, precious Union.”

The future of the Union, moreover, has become central to the negotiations with the EU. The emerging deal will be horribly complex, largely because of British insistence that no arrangements must be made to prevent a hard border in Ireland that would in any way differentiate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Brexit cannot be properly articulated because it has made a sacred cause of fighting for the very thing that Brexit’s voters don’t care about. As Lady Bracknell remarked, “This shilly-shallying with the question is absurd.”

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/13/how-brexit-broke-up-britain

An Ciarraioch

UK Attorney General quoted as saying NI would be in "different regulatory regime and subject to EU laws and institutions" - impossible to see HoC approving that:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1062456138896150528

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Still there, it seems:

http://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1062426691547602945

As I said earlier I would imagine Tony Connelly`s contacts are a lot better than ITV`s and if they are reporting it is still there then surprised and a bit worried he didn`t mention it. A UK wide CU is of little use to us without it.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

That's unlikely surely. Parliament hasn't even seen the text yet.

I thought there was a reading of it this evening?

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

UK Attorney General quoted as saying NI would be in "different regulatory regime and subject to EU laws and institutions" - impossible to see HoC approving that:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1062456138896150528

The DUP have already made up their minds if what Wilson is saying is correct (and we have no reason to doubt him). They're not even waiting to hear the AG's advice or read the document.

charlie14

Strazdas wrote: »

The DUP are definitely voting down the deal. Sammy Wilson told Sharon ni Bheolain on the Nine news they will vote against it (not that they 'may do', but that they have already made the decision to do it).

I would be a lot happier if Wilson and the DUP were foaming at the mouth over this. They seem relatively calm by their standards.

J Mysterio

Seems Farage was humiliated in Brussels today.

https://twitter.com/Goonerman10/status/1062420086819119106

Mr.Nice Guy

Surprised by this claim:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062457793297420289

I thought the EU had ruled out independent arbitration?

The Pheasant2

What's the story re parliamentary arithmetic, if the DUP and Brexiters vote it down is that it snuffed?

Inquitus

It seems May needs a miracle to get this through parliament, ERG won't vote for it, DUP won't vote for it, Tory Remainers won't vote for it, and Labour won't vote for it. Assuming this doesn't get through parliament what happens next, what are the options?

May resigns, and this triggers a GE
May resigns and the Tory's try and install a new leader without going to the country, they trundle onwards to no deal
No confidence vote (unlikely, but possible if the DUP decide to pull the rest of the plug) and there is a GE
May tries to cling to power for a few more weeks / months, hard to see any progress being made on a deal, so they trundle onwards to no deal?
May decides to call a referendum given there is no way forwards and resigns at some point in the process

An Ciarraioch

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

What's the story re parliamentary arithmetic, if the DUP and Brexiters vote it down is that it snuffed?

Almost certainly - Labour would rather roll the dice in the hope of forcing a GE or second referendum.

J Mysterio

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised by this claim:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062457793297420289

I thought the EU had ruled out independent arbitration?

No way will there be Independent arbitration.

Clare in Exile

Have we any official confirmation of a NI specific backstop? Next few days will tell a lot, glad to see that Irish side adhering to media silence on all of this, Westminster will see enough skin and hair flying.

I think May might believe that she can get it through Parliament, maybe she does have enough Labour MPs who will vote with her?

Fascinating few days ahead...

An Ciarraioch

Hope you're not holding any hot drinks while reading this, but the Daily Express approve the deal!

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1062462871806898176

devnull

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hope you're not holding any hot drinks while reading this, but the Daily Express approve the deal!

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1062462871806898176

Honestly, I had to check if the date was 1st April.

That is very surprising!

judeboy101

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised by this claim:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062457793297420289

I thought the EU had ruled out independent arbitration?

Massive climbdown by EU, allowing "independent arbitration. Where is the ECJ? I think the reason Irish gov so quiet is the shock at finding a large knife protruding from their back. So much for the "back stop".

Tell me how

devnull wrote: »

Honestly, I had to check if the date was 1st April.

That is very surprising!

That is borderline unbelievable, particularly given the comments by Johnson and Rees-Mogg this evening.

Frank Bullitt

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hope you're not holding any hot drinks while reading this, but the Daily Express approve the deal!

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1062462871806898176

Has anyone checked the weather in Hell today? Must be chilly.

If the noise from the DUP is anything to go off though, surely this deal is already dead in the water.