Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

joe40

Don't get me wrong, I would hate to see any border infrastructure and I totally detest the DUP. I'm from Donegal, and currently work in Tyrone, and at 48 years old I have vivid memories of the "troubles" and the heavily fortified border.
However I just don't think there is any way we would return to the violence of the past. Border infrastructure would be a target but violence would be limited to destruction of property and rioting. I'm not playing that down but I don't think there is a danger of the near civil war conditions of the past.
That came about by years of a virtual apartheid state, and British heavy handed colonial attitude in the 70s.
Obviously I could be wrong, but I just feel whatever happens we won't go back to widespread, sustained organised nationalist violence. The conditions don't exist anymore.
Protestant/loyalist violence could reignite.

An Ciarraioch

Faisal Islam is probably the best UK commentator - has truffled out a German report that the EU is offering a longer transition period, while the UK is seeking permanent membership of the CU!

http://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1052259398763114496

Admittedly, I can't read German, so unsure how accurate this is.

flatty

The border was deeply sinister. Being surrounded by clearly nervous heavily armed lads who were not far of being children in truth. I just can't believe it's come to this. I can only think that the UK will have to grit its teeth and cut its cloth until labour get in, then grit and cut further until finally someone in the mainstream offers a centre ground viable political option, but it could easily be a generation.

flatty

joe40 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I would hate to see any border infrastructure and I totally detest the DUP. I'm from Donegal, and currently work in Tyrone, and at 48 years old I have vivid memories of the "troubles" and the heavily fortified border.
However I just don't think there is any way we would return to the violence of the past. Border infrastructure would be a target but violence would be limited to destruction of property and rioting. I'm not playing that down but I don't think there is a danger of the near civil war conditions of the past.
That came about by years of a virtual apartheid state, and British heavy handed colonial attitude in the 70s.
Obviously I could be wrong, but I just feel whatever happens we won't go back to widespread, sustained organised nationalist violence. The conditions don't exist anymore.
Protestant/loyalist violence could reignite.

My worry is that there were actually a surprisingly small number of active terrorists. I think the violence will largely come from the loyalist side who feel more threatened by a united Ireland with each passing year. In truth it's time that bullet was bitten (poor phrase in the circumstance)

Rhineshark

flatty wrote: »

The border was deeply sinister. Being surrounded by clearly nervous heavily armed lads who were not far of being children in truth. I just can't believe it's come to this. I can only think that the UK will have to grit its teeth and cut its cloth until labour get in, then grit and cut further until finally someone in the mainstream offers a centre ground viable political option, but it could easily be a generation.

The country won't survive a generation of deep cutting. It has just come out of the teeth of 8 years of truly badly-handled austerity. As things stand the county councils are in crisis, the NHS is in crisis, transport is getting worse, education is being cut, the emergency services were stripped to the bone a while ago, the universal credit scheme is causing severe deprivation, food bank usage has shot up and there is little to no focus on it because the government is consumed by Brexit.

And this is before Brexit actually happens. And god only knows what will happen if the likes of Johnson and Mogg get their way with removing all protections on British agriculture.

The King Arthur party better arise fast. I'm not sure the UK has a generation to wait.

An Ciarraioch

One doesn't need much French to get the gist of this tweet from their Minister for European Affairs:

http://twitter.com/NathalieLoiseau/status/1052257142026031104

Spook_ie

Captain Obvious wrote: »

I think you are kind of ignoring the significance of a hard border. I'm old enough to remember being taken from a car at gun point as a boy with my family for a search. And I'd imagine that's a fairly tame memory in comparison to many. In addition to that, I think it would be political suicide to be the party that agrees to partition the country again.

The country is already partitioned, its a case of hard, soft or no border

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1051411763680473090

Cam across this thread yesterday explaining what will happen on Brexit day, it's a long one and also terrifying.

prawnsambo

Rhineshark wrote: »

The country won't survive a generation of deep cutting. It has just come out of the teeth of 8 years of truly badly-handled austerity. As things stand the county councils are in crisis, the NHS is in crisis, transport is getting worse, education is being cut, the emergency services were stripped to the bone a while ago, the universal credit scheme is causing severe deprivation, food bank usage has shot up and there is little to no focus on it because the government is consumed by Brexit.

And this is before Brexit actually happens. And god only knows what will happen if the likes of Johnson and Mogg get their way with removing all protections on British agriculture.

The King Arthur party better arise fast. I'm not sure the UK has a generation to wait.

When you think about it, Cameron could not have chosen a worse time for his little exercise in democracy. There is nothing like a prolonged period of hardship to turn an electorate against anything that they perceive to be at fault for their misery. Including their own government. And no matter how illogical it is.

An Ciarraioch

The trade stats for August continue the trend of the year to date - diversification of exports, but also imports - big jump for Germany in the latter:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsaugust2018/

flatty

Rhineshark wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

The border was deeply sinister. Being surrounded by clearly nervous heavily armed lads who were not far of being children in truth. I just can't believe it's come to this. I can only think that the UK will have to grit its teeth and cut its cloth until labour get in, then grit and cut further until finally someone in the mainstream offers a centre ground viable political option, but it could easily be a generation.

The country won't survive a generation of deep cutting. It has just come out of the teeth of 8 years of truly badly-handled austerity. As things stand the county councils are in crisis, the NHS is in crisis, transport is getting worse, education is being cut, the emergency services were stripped to the bone a while ago, the universal credit scheme is causing severe deprivation, food bank usage has shot up and there is little to no focus on it because the government is consumed by Brexit.

And this is before Brexit actually happens. And god only knows what will happen if the likes of Johnson and Mogg get their way with removing all protections on British agriculture.

The King Arthur party better arise fast. I'm not sure the UK has a generation to wait.

It'll have to. It'll be like Ireland in the eighties only violent.

road_high

I the U.K. (English) underestimate the level of apathy and indifference the Europeans have towards them and their trade with them. It appears to me the EU 26 are more than willing to take on the chin any individual damage trade disruption may cause rather than selling out the principles of EU membership and also Ireland as a committed member. They haven’t got their head around this and at this stage most likely won’t. Huge disruption at Dover etc it is and closure of associated industry interdependent on continental trade. Might (a big might) take to bring them to their senses, just a shame we will get caught in the cross fire.

charlie14

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Didn't they just join the UDR?

Quite a few of them, but after the Hunt Report the worst of them were either weeded out or there was stricter control of their "activities"

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One doesn't need much French to get the gist of this tweet from their Minister for European Affairs:

http://twitter.com/NathalieLoiseau/status/1052257142026031104

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-give-may-a-glimmer-of-hope-over-irish-border-problem-3q9gpj7gb?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1539706887

Ooops

road_high

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The trade stats for August continue the trend of the year to date - diversification of exports, but also imports - big jump for Germany in the latter:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsaugust2018/

Likely very currency related- UK Ireland trade has always been hugely influenced by these movements and fall/rose accordingly.
But still very encouraging. You have to laugh at the “Global Britain” bollix they go on with. For all their ****e talk they actually export more to little ole us than we buy from them!

Roanmore

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1051411763680473090

Cam across this thread yesterday explaining what will happen on Brexit day, it's a long one and also terrifying.

Read it yesterday, it's available on a pdf format rather than 47 individual tweets plus about 6 or 7 add ons. It is crazy what could happen but reading some of the replies are worse, "you lost, get over it", etc.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

The King Arthur party better arise fast. I'm not sure the UK has a generation to wait.

Worry ye not, the prophecies foretell of a saviour

Will Meghan Markle’s Child Be Born In Time To Stop Brexit?


In reality if there isn't a deal Meghan and the chisler will be able to travel to the EU for up to 90 days without a visa while hubby stays at home.

Imreoir2

joe40 wrote: »

However I just don't think there is any way we would return to the violence of the past. Border infrastructure would be a target but violence would be limited to destruction of property and rioting.

I don't think anyone expects things to return to the height of the troubles on day one. At first there would be destruction of property and civil disorder.

This sets back the peace a little bit.

This would require the deployment of additional security forces to control the situation.

This sets back the peace a little bit.

Frustrated protesters square up to security forces, injuries on both sides. Repeated destruction of infastructure, first a ceamra pulled down, then a checkpoint surrounded, then a few shots fired at customs agents, next a bomb planted, at some point security forces have to be deployed to protect the infastructure and the customs agents. If (when?) the police are attacked, should a member of the PSNI be seriously injured or killed, will the army be deployed? What about after the second or third, or fourth?

Each step chips away at the peace settlement bit by bit, each step brings a reaction, and further escalation. This summer might see riots, and for the rest of the UK that might be all there is, but in NI it won't stop there. We will be lucky to get past the 12th without serious violence.

joe40

Isn't there a german word for taking some pleasure in someone else's misfortune?
If this didn't affect me personally and also have really dire consequences for a lot of irish businesses and their workers, I would enjoy watching the Brits tie themselves up in knots.

This situation is very serious for us, catastrophic for the UK.

FrancieBrady

joe40 wrote: »

Isn't there a german word for taking some pleasure in someone else's misfortune?
If this didn't affect me personally and also have really dire consequences for a lot of irish businesses and their workers, I would enjoy watching the Brits tie themselves up in knots.

This situation is very serious for us, catastrophic for the UK.

We have a route to recover though. And we have recovered before. This time we will be better off as we will have rid ourselves of our dependence.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We have a route to recover though. And we have recovered before. This time we will be better off as we will have rid ourselves of our dependence.

The Irish economy has made enormous strides in the past 3 decades in moving away from over dependence on the U.K. market. Our state agencies such as IDA Ireland, trade reps deserve enormous credit in this regard and their performance and hard work since the crash is to their credit and helped us recover very rapidly indeed. As well as hugely expanding our trade network around the globe.
We are a resilient bunch whatever happens and I fully support the government in endeavoring to protect Irish interests.

Water John

Schadenfreude

L1011

Asmooh wrote: »

Sure? Think the idea will target everyone and everything non Irish.
UK could still charge Ireland for using UK outlets, rhd cars, UK style busses etc

Not one of those things is something the UK owns the idea of.

The NTA buy most city buses from Wright in Northern Ireland, but at such a high volume that they would almost inevitably go bankrupt if we stopped. We are starting to source buses from elsewhere anyway; and its not like we haven't completely changed city bus manufacturer before, and recently - went from Alexander to Wright in about 2009.

If the UK tries any silly buggers stuff we can put Northern Ireland in to the 19th century almost instantly - we own the gas and electricity networks. Irish state-owned companies, not even Irish PLCs.

Anthracite

Asmooh wrote: »

Sure? Think the idea will target everyone and everything non Irish.
UK could still charge Ireland for using UK outlets, rhd cars, UK style busses etc

Wait, what??

road_high

joe40 wrote: »

In terms of northern Ireland economy, it is totally false. The % working in the public sector is ridiculously high compared with private sector.
Money was thrown at the province during the troubles. Revolution and poverty/unemployment go hand in hand.
That is slowly but significantly drying up. I work in education for over 20 years and the money available is a lot less, including salaries.
Without British support/handouts there would be a strong economic argument for a united Ireland. It is amazing how many even northern nationalists don't seem to realise that

Pull the plug on that subsidy and the place would collapse. Would make Greece look like a cake-walk really- the Greeks were used to lower quality public services anyhow whereas NI is a kind of narnia that bears no relation to its own productivity or output!
This kind of lavish false spending destroys the real economy long term and this is where NI is at now.
This farce can’t really continue especially if there was a UI. Everyone would have to pay their way

road_high

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. A lot of what we buy from the UK, we buy for convenience sake. It's closer and quicker to get. But it's not because they have a monopoly.

Inertia and familiarity also huge selling points with British trade. In reality very little that can’t be sourced cheaper or better elsewhere really.

Leroy42

road_high wrote: »

Pull the plug on that subsidy and the place would collapse. Would make Greece look like a cake-walk really. This kind of lavish false spending destroys the real economy long term and this is where NI is at now.
This farce can’t really continue especially if there was a UI. Everyone would have to pay their way

It won't continue to long after Brexit. If any of the projections are right, even if the economy simply stays at the current state, TM has already promised the end of austerity and they need £350mpw for the NHS. That is before they start having to pay for the new power stations, the new Trident fleet and loads more.

That is a lot of money that has to be found and there are significant additional costs that will have to be funded.

Inevitably, the people of GB are going to start asking why NI is getting such a large amount of money whilst the rest of the UK is struggling.

badtoro

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1051411763680473090

Cam across this thread yesterday explaining what will happen on Brexit day, it's a long one and also terrifying.

Is he right on 36/47 where he says basically the UK can unilaterally withdraw A50? Do the other members, or anyone else, get a say were that to happen? Whether they do or do not the UK has seriously damaged itself as a nation with these "negotiations".

ilovesmybrick

Anthracite wrote: »

Wait, what??

I'm presuming that the poster means that Ireland wouldn't be able to source right hand drive cars anymore since UK car manufacturers make most right hand drive cars. Manufacturers like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Mazda..../s

In terms of plug sockets their point is even more nonsensical.

Imreoir2

badtoro wrote: »

Is he right on 36/47 where he says basically the UK can unilaterally withdraw A50? Do the other members, or anyone else, get a say were that to happen? Whether they do or do not the UK has seriously damaged itself as a nation with these "negotiations".

It's before the ECJ for decision at the moment. The current EU position is that it can only be withdrawn with agreement on all sides.