Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Professor Moriarty

judeboy101 wrote: »

Massive climbdown by EU, allowing "independent arbitration. Where is the ECJ? I think the reason Irish gov so quiet is the shock at finding a large knife protruding from their back. So much for the "back stop".

If the ECJ is the independent arbitrator...

Mr.Nice Guy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hope you're not holding any hot drinks while reading this, but the Daily Express approve the deal!

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1062462871806898176

I don't see how that is the Express approving the deal? Seems to be just spelling out May's words rather than actually endorsing them.

Mr.Nice Guy

Really want to see this text now.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062466422130073601

Inquitus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't see how that is the Express approving the deal? Seems to be just spelling out May's words rather than actually endorsing them.

The BIG BOLDED letters on the front page are all most of their readership will read, before gleefully skipping to the xenophobia on page 10, then the celebrity news from page 11.

Rhineshark

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't see how that is the Express approving the deal? Seems to be just spelling out May's words rather than actually endorsing them.

While it is surprising that the big words don't include "traitor" or "vassalage", I think too much is being read into it. It is just saying she has to now convince everyone that this deal is BEST FOR BRITAIN, not saying it is.


Also I stand by that the EU hasn't shafted us.

Hurrache

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Really want to see this text now.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062466422130073601

Could mean a UK wide backstop.

Like we've seen before, you get all sorts of claims and allegations when it comes to Brexit thrown out by interested parties to suit an agenda.

charlie14

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Really want to see this text now.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062466422130073601

We are going to have to wait and see, but worrisome all the same.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062469266849570818

Seems EU has conceded some ground.

Most of her Cabinet on board reportedly.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720

charlie14

Hurrache wrote: »

Could mean a UK wide backstop.

Like we've seen before, you get all sorts of claims and allegations when it comes to Brexit thrown out by interested parties to suit an agenda.

Even if it does, without an unless or until clause then it is serious trouble for us.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062469266849570818

Seems EU has conceded some ground.

I suspect the devil is in the detail. The cabinet has less than 24 hours to back the deal. Considering it's 500 pages of highly technical text, that devil would be hard to find before decision time.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seems Farage was humiliated in Brussels today.

Happy to take his wage from the EU as an MEP and

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/nigel-farage-admits-his-children-hold-german-as-well-as-uk-passports

ex-Ukip leader also suggested Britain had lost the second world war because the nation had been “bankrupted” and “our big imperial possessions started to disappear.”

Farage has four children, two with his wife Kirsten Mehr, who is a German national and has confirmed the couple separated last year.

Yes Nigel you lost WWII because the USA shafted you over the gold standard. And if you understand that you'd understand how the UK would fare with trade deals.

So he had a European divorce but his kids still get to eat cake ?
That's the poster child for Brexit

BTW Nick Clegg's kids have Spanish passports.

Mc Love

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062469266849570818

Seems EU has conceded some ground.

Most of her Cabinet on board reportedly.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720

Maybe the DUP were right that the irish government were fuming

judeboy101

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Really want to see this text now.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062466422130073601

So much for EU having our back.

Hurrache

Nobody apart from those involved have seen the text, no point in starting the blame game over unknowns.

Mr.Nice Guy

Good blog by Robert Peston trying to work out the implications.

Key bits:

It is what’s described in Brussels as the “swimming pool” approach – in other words it has a shallow end and a deep end, when it comes to measures aimed at making sure trade is completely frictionless between NI and the ROI, and fairly frictionless between Great Britain and the EU27.

GB would be in the shallow end, NI in the deep.

Or to be more precise, the whole of the UK would stay in the customs union if a long-term trading relationship between the UK and EU isn’t negotiated and implemented by the end of 2020 – which no one (with the possible exception of the PM) expects it to be.

In fact most EU politicians expect the backstop to be the reality of our trading relationship with the EU for many years.

But – and this is reassuring for May, and perhaps for most in the Cabinet – EU leaders don’t really like this version of the backstop, which is largely May’s preferred model of how to keep open that border in Ireland (in that sense it can be seen as a victory for her in the negotiations).

So there will be an option after the UK leaves the EU next March, during the 21 month transition period, to negotiate some other arrangement that would have the same effect as the backstop (and yes I know this is confusing – but probably what mostly matters is that only the backstop will be legally binding, and that is what will upset many of her MPs).

But in addition to being in the customs union, Northern Ireland would also remain in much of the single market, that part of it pertaining to goods: Northern Ireland alone would be forced to follow all EU directives and laws in relation to goods flowing back and forth between NI and the ROI.

...

But this aspect of the backstop – the deep end for Northern Ireland – could well undermine the agreement between the DUP and the Conservative Party for the DUP to back all important government legislation, and possibly wreck it, throwing into jeopardy the PM’s ability to govern.

And if the DUP votes with Labour and hardcore Tory Brexiters AND hardcore Tory Remainers against her Brexit deal – which is an anti-May coalition I anticipate – the PM would lose the “meaningful vote” on the deal by a large margin.

...

For the avoidance of doubt, what’s finally been negotiated is much less toxic to May than the EU’s original proposal of Northern Ireland alone remaining in the customs union and the single market. But it will still upset many of the MPs who sustain her in power.

To state the obvious, much will hinge on how and whether the UK could get out of the backstop – about which we will presumably learn all tomorrow.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/heres-what-theresa-may-has-just-agreed-on-northern-ireland-and-no-the-dup-wont-like-it

kowtow

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised by this claim:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062457793297420289

I thought the EU had ruled out independent arbitration?

I like this line that the deal is "mutually uncomfortable".

In fact I'm fairly sure I coined the phrase here myself....

An Ciarraioch

Assuming both Connelly and Peston are correct, and NI remains in the SM regulatory regime, presumably the agreement simply doesn't use the word backstop.

murphaph

It would be astonishing if there was not an all weather backstop in the text. I would be very disappointed but I think it's probably on there, if a little difficult to understand.

Tell me how

I'm still befuddled by the Express indicating support......
Can anyone rationalise that?

An Ciarraioch

murphaph wrote: »

It would be astonishing if there was not an all weather backstop in the text. I would be very disappointed but I think it's probably on there, if a little difficult to understand.

Certainly, the earlier reports suggested the NI details were in the appendices, rather than the main text, which may be where the confusion arises.

devnull

Hurrache wrote: »

The peasant Brendan O'Neil doing the press review on Sky News tonight, those with HD may see the veins in his temples pulse in anger.

He's just stated that there's already a border between NI and ROI and if it gets a bit harder it won't cause many problems, won't be the end of the world and won't cause any troubles and something like that isn't going to set Irish people off on it's own, as they are not crazy.

Typical deluded Brexiteer, knows absolutely nothing about our Island whatsoever, the ignorance of some of them is quite astounding, they don't even know their history, let alone have any common sense.

Also claimed that the Irish Government are being used by the EU and are behaving pretty badly.

Hurrache

All 3 on the Sky Press Preview a bit perplexed by the Express headline.

prawnsambo

Mc Love wrote: »

Maybe the DUP were right that the irish government were fuming

And they still don't like it. You'd wonder what would satisfy them.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Massive climbdown by EU, allowing "independent arbitration. Where is the ECJ? I think the reason Irish gov so quiet is the shock at finding a large knife protruding from their back. So much for the "back stop".

It's all hearsay and conjecture at the moment. Keep your powder dry

Kermit.de.frog

judeboy101 wrote: »

So much for EU having our back.

NI will be staying in the Single Market and will have "deeper" customs alignment than GB.

What more do you want?

If not have it called a NI specific backstop gets it over the line - that is just language.

Hurrache

devnull wrote: »

He's just stated that there's already a border between NI and ROI and if it gets a bit harder it won't cause many problems, won't be the end of the world and won't cause any troubles and something like that isn't going to set Irish people off on it's own, as they are not crazy.

Gob****e still dropping the line "as someone from an Irish background...".

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised by this claim:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062457793297420289

I thought the EU had ruled out independent arbitration?

Is a political correspondent for Buzzfeed a reliable source?
Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

UK Attorney General quoted as saying NI would be in "different regulatory regime and subject to EU laws and institutions" - impossible to see HoC approving that:

Different regulatory regime ?

NI is already in a Different regulatory regime

abortion, human rights, housing, council powers, MOTs, licencing laws, casinos, strip clubs, prostitution, capital expenditure per capita, public sector jobs per capita, prescription charges, business rates, minority languages, prison sentencing, education, planning,building control, air passenger duty,

- You forgot renewable heating incentive schemes.

- I remembered some more as well, agriculture, roads, waste management, legal system, multiculturalism, creationism and there's more I just haven't bought of .

- Parade comissioning. Tyre burning pallet recycling? Police recruitment. Easter licensing laws. Political donations(maybe thats historical) school segregation and boards of governors. Horse racing levy. Dog licensing. MOTsystem.Sport governing bodies.Agricultural subsidy system.

- Foxhunting.

I'd also add stuff like the Cross Border Healthcare Directive
and recognising each others Points System for driving
and the tacit agreement on proposed Minimum Unit Pricing for alcoholic drinks
and the phytosanctions on livestock and agricultural machinery and wood
Same sex marriage
Enforced quotas for religion if you have more than 10 employees
Foreign banks printing their own money


But other that NI is broadly the same as the rest of the UK

Dyr

It doesn't matter if the pool has a deep end for NI, if the backstop is temporary and has mutual review clause then its just an inflatable paddling pool that the Brits can pack up.

Unless there's a proper backstop then the EU used the peace process to screw as much out of the UK as they could before they shafted Varadker.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Assuming both Connelly and Peston are correct, and NI remains in the SM regulatory regime, presumably the agreement simply doesn't use the word backstop.

The backstop we want is NI in both the CU and SM.

This seems to be a backstop keeping all the UK in the CU with some SM element to NI. The UK are hardly going to stay in the CU indefinitely so without a backstop to that of "unless or until" then we would be up the creek without a paddle.