Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

Fann Linn wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

Sterling falling like a rock in the past hour. I wonder what is going on.

Revolut.

Both the question mark over today and Brexit and something to do with inflation not doing sonething it was expected to do.

mayo.mick

The hypocrite is unbelievable....

https://twitter.com/Goonerman10/status/1062420086819119106

VinLieger

flatty wrote: »

Sterling falling like a rock in the past hour. I wonder what is going on.

DUP publicly coming out against it and you can bet a good margin of tory backbenchers privately against it and talking, so theres no way it can pass without Labour and Corbyn has already said no to it yesterday

joe40

VinLieger wrote: »

DUP publicly coming out against it and you can bet a good margin of tory backbenchers privately against it and talking, so theres no way it can pass without Labour and Corbyn has already said no to it yesterday

Is there any chance of a labour revolt against corbyn and MPs supporting the Bill in parliament, if it passes cabinet?

LeinsterDub

May just asked in the the House if the UK can unilaterally withdraw. A lot fudging on her part but the long and the short of it seems they can't.

Nody

Shelga wrote: »

Can someone provide a summary of this deal? Does it take the UK out of the single market, is freedom of movement going to be ended? How does it differ from Chequers?

Since no one outside the negotiators have properly seen the deal (pages going from 400 to 600 depending on who you ask of legalese) that would be difficult. Below however is what is currently a best guess on what's in the deal based on various sources claiming to have inside information (and sometimes contradicting each other).

1. UK remains in the CU (note CU does not equal Single Market) - This would tie UK to basically do no FTAs as well. As part of this UK has to basically have EU rules in place to ensure fair competition. Single market access is most likely included but this is not clear at this stage but for sure when it comes to single market it's going to be an all or nothing approach.
2. This deal is in place until end of 2020 but can be extended; such extensions will cost UK 10 billion a year give or take (no discounts) which is basically same they pay today. Any extensions require both parties to agree to it.
3. UK has zero say in any new rules and regulations but need to remain harmonized with EU regulation and by extension no MEPs etc. in EU, no say in minister meetings though they may be invited to observe ala Norway at times etc.
4. UK can from 2020 leave the CU (shallow end of the pool) but NI has to remain in the CU & single market (at least for goods; this is an area to keep an eye on) until a solution is found that has the same effect in practice.
5. The definition of equal in practice for NI is reviewed by a third party in some form (ECJ or EMEA court or yet to be specified) and can not be unilaterally claimed by UK (but of course UK can pull out of the deal as a sovereign nation if they wish to but that would have other consequences).
6. During the time up to 2020 (and most likely beyond) the discussions on the future FTA, deals on flight access etc. would be ongoing but highly unlikely to be done by end of 2020 simply due to complexity of such deals (realistically we'd be talking 5 to 10 years duration to sort things out).

The thing is the above is purely from claimed leaks; the devil is in the detail and as we don't have the 400/600 page document (and the leaks are unlikely to have seen them either but read/been told a summary) and hence it's a lot of conjecture.

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

When would his be put to the commons?

Given the EU summit would be the 25th of November, the Commons vote would be in early December.

kowtow

LeinsterDub wrote: »

May just asked in the the House if the UK can unilaterally withdraw. A lot fudging on her part but the long and the short of it seems they can't.

I think that is fairly clear from the Attorney General's advice as reported.

Their route to withdrawal is a successful claim that the EU is not using it's best endeavors to join with them in removing the backstop.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting that the agreement will face a Dáil vote - if FF unhappy with the backstop elements, would that cause a GE by breaching supply and confidence?

EKRIUQ

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I read a hardcopy of the Express in the shop just to see the editorial.
They consider it an acceptable deal, they congratulate TMPM and suggest that its something that all MPs of all parties should accept and vote for.

Notwithstanding that the editor wouldn't have actually read the agreement at this stage, it does seem a curiously un-Express tack to take.

They were bought out by Trinity Mirror this year, which the Daily Mirror are part of and their position has been a pro EURO agenda. So maybe it's filtering to the Express but not too quickly to alienate their readers.

ArmaniJeanss

joe40 wrote: »

Is there any chance of a labour revolt against corbyn and MPs supporting the Bill in parliament, if it passes cabinet?

My take on this (and not everyone here agreed) was that it was unlikely. If Labour are voting No it's because the Keir Starmer wing of the party has decided it doesn't meet the tests. JC has previously said he will go along with KS's decision.

Therefore any member voting against the party line under these circumstances would be very isolated as they are revolting against the current leadership and also the likely future leadership, really not a good move.

Though there are about 6 Labour who don't give a fcuk about any of the above and will vote with the government.

kuro68k

Shelga wrote: »

Can someone provide a summary of this deal? Does it take the UK out of the single market, is freedom of movement going to be ended? How does it differ from Chequers?

This is just the withdrawal agreement, all that still needs to be negotiated as during the transition period. Freedom of movement etc. will continue during that time, which is going to be up to the end of 2020.

EKRIUQ

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting that the agreement will face a Dáil vote - if FF unhappy with the backstop elements, would that cause a GE by breaching supply and confidence?

I think that's good as then it's not going to be railroaded through and then we discover months down the line we didn't know the full extent of the agreement. At least FF are going to try to pick holes in it.

charlie14

flatty wrote: »

Sterling falling like a rock in the past hour. I wonder what is going on.

If it is then no great expectation of this deal getting through the HoC I imagine.

barry181091

Why are the PMQ's like a circus compared to our own Leader's questions? It just seems like one big laugh

Hurrache

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I think that's good as then it's not going to be railroaded through and then we discover months down the line we didn't know the full extent of the agreement. At least FF are going to try to pick holes in it.

I imagine all parties are going to, FG are hardly going to accept it without analysing what's in it.

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting that the agreement will face a Dáil vote - if FF unhappy with the backstop elements, would that cause a GE by breaching supply and confidence?

I imagine it would have to go to a Dáil vote anyway, so would have to be debated.

lobbylad

Is there any indication of when the full text will be released to the public? I'm guessing shortly after the UK cabinet meeting in the afternoon?

EKRIUQ

charlie14 wrote: »

I imagine it would have to go to a Dáil vote anyway, so would have to be debated.

But in this instance, I think all parties are going to vote for the good of the country.

An Ciarraioch

lobbylad wrote: »

Is there any indication of when the full text will be released to the public? I'm guessing shortly after the UK cabinet meeting in the afternoon?

Yes - current predictions suggest 5-6 p.m.

kowtow

charlie14 wrote: »

If it is then no great expectation of this deal getting through the HoC I imagine.

I'll stick to my instinct that in the final analysis a lot of Labour will prefer to walk through the lobbies with Theresa May than with Jacob Rees Mogg & the DUP, or at the very least to abstain....

However - the numbers are tight. The various groups on the Tory side (including Scots Tories over fishing) who might vote against the deal are very difficult to predict.

What is difficult to see at this stage is what effect the proximity of a deal will have on the "peoples vote" / anti-Brexit lobby ... they are operating now in waters which are muddier than ever and, like labour, whilst they have a stated position there is no obvious means by which their position can become reality prior to 29th March. Nothing is impossible of course!

Nody

And yet another coin has fallen down in the UK:

The UK has given up on remaining a member of Europol after Brexit and fears a “major drop” in co-operation in fighting cross-border crime.

The Home Office has admitted Britain will lose its seat on the organisation’s management board – despite previously arguing it was “critical” that its role is “not weakened”.

Exactly as said a year ago and predicted because hey, Eurpol requires you to be an EU member. Curious to see how many more climb downs will come in the weeks and months to come as reality starts to assert itself and that EU rules are not recommendations but actually binding requirements.

charlie14

EKRIUQ wrote: »

But in this instance, I think all parties are going to vote for the good of the country.

It will depend what is actually in the agreement on the border as to how parties would view if it is or is not for the good of the country I would imagine.

Zubeneschamali

flatty wrote: »

Sterling falling like a rock in the past hour. I wonder what is going on.

No-one resigned overnight so early optimism for a deal has Stg bounce up.

Since then, whinging from DUP and Brexiteers means less optimism for a deal, Stg falls back.

If May gets cabinet buy-in today, Stg bounces up, if not it drops.

Leroy42

The MPs are in a tough spot. TM will no doubt make the case that there are plenty of EU concessions in the deal, and turning down the deal will not readily lead to anything better. On that basis, and given the time constraints, voting down this deal is effectively seeking a No Deal (I believe this has always been her plan).

A no deal is chaos, and would probably lead to even greater calls for a Indy Ref2, something that Brexiteers are not in favor of as the likelihood is that, given that no deal could be reached in two years, that people will vote to remain.

So in effect, those in the ERG etc are being given the option of this deal or the possibility of no Brexit at all. There is no appetite in HoC for a No Deal. Of course some will happily take the No Deal, but not all. Particularly Labour have a difficult decision. Are they really going to allow the likes of the DUP and ERG to drive the UK into a No Deal?

charlie14

kowtow wrote: »

I'll stick to my instinct that in the final analysis a lot of Labour will prefer to walk through the lobbies with Theresa May than with Jacob Rees Mogg & the DUP, or at the very least to abstain....

However - the numbers are tight. The various groups on the Tory side (including Scots Tories over fishing) who might vote against the deal are very difficult to predict.

What is difficult to see at this stage is what effect the proximity of a deal will have on the "peoples vote" / anti-Brexit lobby ... they are operating now in waters which are muddier than ever and, like labour, whilst they have a stated position there is no obvious means by which their position can become reality prior to 29th March. Nothing is impossible of course!

I would not be too confident that she would get enough Labour votes to negate the DUP vote let alone the ERG vote plus whoever else on the Tory side may go against it. There may be a problem for many Labour MPs whose constituents favoured Remain but Keir Starmer 6 tests may give them cover. Other than the 6 MPs that someone posted earlier who do not give a fcuk for Corbyn or Starmer`s view, I would have my doubts that other than those, there would be many who wish to have an internal tearing apart due to keeping the Tory`s in power.
I have a feeling that Labour will not go down the 2nd referendum route as it would be a toss of a coin imo, but will want to go for a GE on the promise they can get a better deal.

listermint

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No-one resigned overnight so early optimism for a deal has Stg bounce up.

Since then, whinging from DUP and Brexiteers means less optimism for a deal, Stg falls back.

If May gets cabinet buy-in today, Stg bounces up, if not it drops.

Dont bother watching the currency market in Sterling it bares no resemblance to actual events. And hasn't done in 2 year.

Zubeneschamali

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Here's the 6 tests, I don't see how remaining would fail any of them.

Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?

Remain fails this one, unless you think "no management of migration of workers within the EU" is fair management.

joe40

Surely they must see that the options are

1 This deal
2 No Deal
3 Closer custom union as favoured by Corbyn
4 No Brexit as favoured by some Labour MPs

The latter 2 can only happen with a labour government, so is there time for that?

Are some tories still under the impression that the EU will give further concessions if they hold out

briany

charlie14 wrote: »

I would not be too confident that she would get enough Labour votes to negate the DUP vote let alone the ERG vote plus whoever else on the Tory side may go against it. There may be a problem for many Labour MPs whose constituents favoured Remain but Keir Starmer 6 tests may give them cover. Other than the 6 MPs that someone posted earlier who do not give a fcuk for Corbyn or Starmer`s view, I would have my doubts that other than those, there would be many who wish to have an internal tearing apart due to keeping the Tory`s in power.
I have a feeling that Labour will not go down the 2nd referendum route as it would be a toss of a coin imo, but will want to go for a GE on the promise they can get a better deal.

Labour would probably agitate for a GE on the grounds that they can 'get a better deal' up until the 29/3/19.