Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

First Up

Water John wrote: »

Not sure what difficulty would be with the legal end. Letter from TM to EU President Tusk.

And the agreement of every EU member.

bob mcbob

Nody wrote: »

The article appears to mix some significant pointers then; for starters most UK fish taken up is landed in EU ports (or exported to EU). That is ONLY allowed when there is a EU fishing qouta policy for those waters. If UK wants to exclude fishing or their fisheries take "back the control" they can't export any fish or fish products to EU which is the main market in the first place so good luck with that one. A good article on the topic is here; in short UK fishers are going to at best end up where they are today.

Agreed and not surprised.

Half of Scottish Tory MPs are in the North East fishing communities.
If the Tory "take back control" promises fail to materialise, these MPs will have a very short parliamentary career.

charlie14

What I don`t get is them tying themselves into the CU indefinitely for no concernable purpose other than the Irish border when they knew there wasn`t a hope of the DUP supporting this deal.
The could have got the same from the DUP just having this CU arrangement for NI and would have left them with a much better chance of getting this through the HoC.

Itssoeasy

So the speech at 5pm has slipped a bit it seems. Also why is it just a microphone on a tripod yoke outside Downing Street ? There's normally a podium there so wonder if there's anything to that.

Water John

Correct that's the political part but not overly difficult. Might require a two day EU Summit.
You could argue that the EU offered them a better deal from a UK perspective, if they put NI on a different path. Now their not going to get the DUP votes any way.

judeboy101

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Name the Empire that fell because of a misplaced comma.

God, what do they teach in history in school these days. In my day we learned of a brave man called Roger casement who was hanged for want of a comma on a 14th century English definition of traitor. His death caused outrage leading to many Irish to refuse to fight in ww1, depriving the brits of cannon fodder and hastening their need for the yanks to join. The Russian and austro-Hungarian empires fell because of this.

charlie14

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So the speech at 5pm has slipped a bit it seems. Also why is it just a microphone on a tripod yoke outside Downing Street ? There's normally a podium there so wonder if there's anything to that.

Cannot see it helping her chances of getting this through if she giving a press briefing before addressing HoC.


Cart before horse .

intellectual dosser

charlie14 wrote: »

What I don`t get is them tying themselves into the CU indefinitely for no concernable purpose other than the Irish border when they knew there wasn`t a hope of the DUP supporting this deal.
The could have got the same from the DUP just having this CU arrangement for NI and would have left them with a much better chance of getting this through the HoC.

That would be a stark difference between NI and GB, impossible for DUP to support, and Brexiters would twist the knife the DUP put in May's heart.

By the sounds of this agreement, it seems Theresa May is going to have a stab at b/s'ing the DUP into seeing the NI specific text as minute detail that will never come into effect. NI aside, this agreement also saves the UK (and Irish) economy from the risk of total collapse between now and a real trade deal being put in place.

First Up

charlie14 wrote: »

What I don`t get is them tying themselves into the CU indefinitely for no concernable purpose other than the Irish border when they knew there wasn`t a hope of the DUP supporting this deal.
The could have got the same from the DUP just having this CU arrangement for NI and would have left them with a much better chance of getting this through the HoC.

British business has been screaming CU into the ear of every politician they see since the referendum.

Northern Ireland is a political complication but its a side show for UK industry and not the main reason the UK desperately needs a CU.

Water John

Getting the Press onside is crucial for her. They will write tomorrow's headlines.
If those are bad her HoC speech may be for nought.

charlie14

intellectual dosser wrote: »

That would be a stark difference between NI and GB, impossible for DUP to support, and Brexiters would twist the knife the DUP put in May's heart.

By the sounds of this agreement, it seems Theresa May is going to have a stab at b/s'ing the DUP into seeing the NI specific text as minute detail that will never come into effect. NI aside, this agreement also saves the UK (and Irish) economy from the risk of total collapse between now and a real trade deal being put in place.

It is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the DUP. They are not that dumb that they do not know this "magical thinking" on a friction free border is a myth, as does May. By trying to keep them onside she has tied the UK into a CU indefinitely and will end up with not just the DUP voting against this deal but a fair sized rump of her own party.
Not complaining. Suits us down to the ground if she pulls it off, but tbh I think it is more likely a hard Brexit due to not being passed by parliament

RobMc59

judeboy101 wrote: »

God, what do they teach in history in school these days. In my day we learned of a brave man called Roger casement who was hanged for want of a comma on a 14th century English definition of traitor. His death caused outrage leading to many Irish to refuse to fight in ww1, depriving the brits of cannon fodder and hastening their need for the yanks to join. The Russian and austro-Hungarian empires fell because of this.

You forgot to mention his collaboration with the Germans..

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Getting the Press onside is crucial for her. They will write tomorrow's headlines.
If those are bad her HoC speech may be for nought.

I would have thought not p***ing MPs would have been a better plan by addressing them first rather than the press.

Awesomeness

Apparently civil servants have been told to stop including dup on Brexit emails

demfad

Here is the 'meaningful Vote' provision of the EU withdrawal Act which may come into play if May gets her deal through cabinet.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/13/enacted

The below in particular might need the expert microscope?

(3)Subsection (4) applies if the House of Commons decides not to pass the resolution mentioned in subsection (1)(b).

(4) A Minister of the Crown must, within the period of 21 days beginning with the day on which the House of Commons decides not to pass the resolution, make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s Government proposes to proceed in relation to negotiations for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union.

(5) A statement under subsection (4) must be made in writing and be published in such manner as the Minister making it considers appropriate.

(6) A Minister of the Crown must make arrangements for—

(a) a motion in neutral terms, to the effect that the House of Commons has considered the matter of the statement mentioned in subsection (4), to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of seven Commons sitting days beginning with the day on which the statement is made, and

(b) a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of seven Lords sitting days beginning with the day on which the statement is made.

Capt'n Midnight

breatheme wrote: »

You couldn't make this up. You have NI, who according to Foster "can't be treated differently from the rest of the UK" and then Scotland, who according to Sturgeon actually should be treated differently, on account of their Remain vote. So NI wants to be Scotland and Scotland wants to be NI.

Scotland wants to be NI ?

Scotland says NO!

All 13 Scottish Tory MPs warn they will oppose any Brexit deal tying the UK's hands over fishing

intellectual dosser

charlie14 wrote: »

It is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the DUP. They are not that dumb that they do not know this "magical thinking" on a friction free border is a myth, as does May. By trying to keep them onside she has tied the UK into a CU indefinitely and will end up with not just the DUP voting against this deal but a fair sized rump of her own party.
Not complaining. Suits us down to the ground if she pulls it off, but tbh I think it is more likely a hard Brexit due to not being passed by parliament

You're probably right, but they may find themselves under a little bit of pressure to accept a deal that gives NI favorable terms while the threat to their union is much milder than the backstop originally presented (in their minds). History doesnt show they'd recognise that pressure - but who knows.

The last 24 hours have been amusing. I think we generally hear a lot more from the rebels than the MPs towing the line, if May can get some positive soundbites published/broadcast in the media over the next 24 hours I think she might be able to make it happen, with or without the DUP.

charlie14

First Up wrote: »

British business has been screaming CU into the ear of every politician they see since the referendum.

Northern Ireland is a political complication but its a side show for UK industry and not the main reason the UK desperately needs a CU.

I imagine they have been screaming SM as much. What May has now is the worst of both worlds. Paying into the EU and having to comply with any future regulations without any say and not being able to do any trade deals either.
The more I think about it I cannot see the Brits accepting it.
It`s the equivalent of the old scary limbo the catholic church used to preach.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

God, what do they teach in history in school these days. In my day we learned of a brave man called Roger casement who was hanged for want of a comma on a 14th century English definition of traitor. His death caused outrage leading to many Irish to refuse to fight in ww1, depriving the brits of cannon fodder and hastening their need for the yanks to join. The Russian and austro-Hungarian empires fell because of this.

Are you being serious? I honestly can't believe that this is your honest view of history. And even if it is the comma made no difference to the outcome of the war and that's if one accepts your nonsense about Casement as fact.

First Up

charlie14 wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

British business has been screaming CU into the ear of every politician they see since the referendum.

Northern Ireland is a political complication but its a side show for UK industry and not the main reason the UK desperately needs a CU.

I imagine they have been screaming SM as much. What May has now is the worst of both worlds. Paying into the EU and having to comply with any future regulations without any say and not being able to do any trade deals either.
The more I think about it I cannot see the Brits accepting it.
It`s the equivalent of the old scary limbo the catholic church used to preach.

That was always the best they could get but there's no shortage of delusion in Brexit-land. It doesn't mean they will agree to it of course.

charlie14

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Scotland wants to be NI ?

Scotland says NO!

All 13 Scottish Tory MPs warn they will oppose any Brexit deal tying the UK's hands over fishing

If the rumours on fishing rights are true then that was always going to be the outcome. Tory success in Scotland in the Westminster elections was on the back of their Brexit promises on fishing.



I tis going to take a lot of Labour rebels to get this deal through at this stage. Cannot see it tbh.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062761140705546245

Encouraging if true.

He's added this:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062765001830752257

charlie14

First Up wrote: »

That was always the best they could get but there's no shortage of delusion in Brexit-land. It doesn't mean they will agree to it of course.

The best they could have done was cut NI lose to stay fully within the EU and a CU for the rest that would not tie them in waiting for unicorns to appear.


As is would be a great deal for us, but as of now I just cannot see it getting through parliament. The other way, not perfectl but it would be better than a hard Brexit.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062761140705546245

Encouraging if true.

What can explain what that means as if you were talking to a child?

charlie14

Awesomeness wrote: »

Apparently civil servants have been told to stop including dup on Brexit emails

Saves them the trouble of opening replies with nothing in them other than no.

McGiver

charlie14 wrote: »

It is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the DUP. They are not that dumb that they do not know this "magical thinking" on a friction free border is a myth, as does May. By trying to keep them onside she has tied the UK into a CU indefinitely and will end up with not just the DUP voting against this deal but a fair sized rump of her own party.
Not complaining. Suits us down to the ground if she pulls it off, but tbh I think it is more likely a hard Brexit due to not being passed by parliament

Well EEA (or some sort of a Swiss-like arrangement) would be preferrable. But given the constaints CU is the best possible outcome for May.

prawnsambo

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

What can explain what that means as if you were talking to a child?

It's very sparse, but a unilateral withdrawal from the backstop would mean the UK could get out of it without reference to anyone else. Not a chance that would have been agreed to, but it's good to have it confirmed.


Level playing field may mean that NI and Ireland would be the same on all treaties. But it's hard to know as he hasn't given that a context.

lawred2

What does Large annexe on level playing field mean then?

McGiver

charlie14 wrote: »

I imagine they have been screaming SM as much. What May has now is the worst of both worlds. Paying into the EU and having to comply with any future regulations without any say and not being able to do any trade deals either.
The more I think about it I cannot see the Brits accepting it.
It`s the equivalent of the old scary limbo the catholic church used to preach.

CU allows to do FTAs, as does EEA. EFTA has their own FTAs. The key point here is that if you are EEA, you have to align regulations with the EU and if you are in alignment, your FTAs with third parties hence are also aligned with the EU standards and regulations.

So UK won't be able to do FTAs with parties which significantly differ in their regulatory regime or significantly alter/downgrade their own regulatory regime either. That's the point the ultra-free-marketeers Brexiteers are concerned about, they wouldn't be able to do low-tax low-regulatory haven, Singapore on Thames.

charlie14

McGiver wrote: »

Well EEA (or some sort of a Swiss-like arrangement) would be preferrable. But given the constaints CU is the best possible outcome for May.

The constraint she has now is that she is forever and a day in a CU because it is tied in with the border, where NI is effectively not only in that CU but also in the SM. Full EU compliance in other words.
NI is cut lose from the UK in EU terms anyway, yet she has tied herself to the EU with a CU indefinitely for no other reason than not recognising that fact