Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

road_high

Leroy42 wrote: »

It won't continue to long after Brexit. If any of the projections are right, even if the economy simply stays at the current state, TM has already promised the end of austerity and they need £350mpw for the NHS. That is before they start having to pay for the new power stations, the new Trident fleet and loads more.

That is a lot of money that has to be found and there are significant additional costs that will have to be funded.

Inevitably, the people of GB are going to start asking why NI is getting such a large amount of money whilst the rest of the UK is struggling.

It’s a double whammy for NI as I see it. All this has brought the economy to a hugely uncompetitive state and place- why work and be lean when you can effectively get money for nothing?
You never hear of the likes of google or Facebook setting up in Belfast or any of the future/present world economy is at. Anyone I know or meet up north seems to work in the public service or low paid service jobs, unsurprisingly. Or else they move to Dublin or the “mainland”!

Kermit.de.frog

FT reporting EU to offer 1 year extension to transition period.

In return UK must accept 2 backstops including a Northern Ireland only backstop for CU and SM with no timelimit.

An Ciarraioch

FT reporting Barnier offering a "two-tier backstop" - UK in CU, while NI in SM, transition would be extended to December 2021.

trellheim

FT also reporting the backstop is a mistake lol https://www.ft.com/content/0df6434e-d12c-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5


Make no mistake the UK is trying for all it is worth here there is literally no downside to them running down the clock as the alternative is no deal and they reckon someone will ask them to ease up

road_high

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I'm presuming that the poster means that Ireland wouldn't be able to source right hand drive cars anymore since UK car manufacturers make most right hand drive cars. Manufacturers like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Mazda..../s

In terms of plug sockets their point is even more nonsensical.

I was trying to find that posters original posts- must have been deleted but I gather some ****e about how we couldn’t buy third rate expensive buses from Wrights (one of the few places that actually make and sell anything for money up there). Presumably our public transporters must likely bought them as a goodwill gesture. Nothing that can’t be sourced and bought more cheaply from Europe or the globe!

briany

The "GET. AHT. NAHHH." crowd won't be pleased if this comes to pass.

Leroy42

An extension to the transition makes perfect sense for the EU. Basically nothing changes for them (which is what we all want). The UK leave, but there is no actual impact except they don't have to listen to them anymore. And in return the EU gets everything it wants.

The transition period is a wholly made up process anyway.

Is there a downside to the EU from a move like this?

Enzokk

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Thing is I remember clearly talking to my boss about the North (Italian, Sud Tyrol too which had it's share of issues) and casually mentioning the number of deaths during the troubles and she was shocked. I was quite happy to tell her that was in the past and fortunately I was of the last generation that would ever have such memories. I don't think even in the case of a hard border it will go back the way it was, but even the fact that they could risk the possibility of it again and that we're talking about it is mad.

I don't know whether a hard border will lead to the exact violence there was before but just the idea that any violence could be returned to for a decision the people in NI didn't vote for boggles the mind to be honest.

What would happen with NI in the future would be interesting. I read a tweet where it was mentioned that NI has a very right wing tax policy but left wing spending. I guess this is only possible when you don't really have to worry about deficits and such things.

During the RHI inquiry one of the questions was why the scheme was set up initially to be so generous and the answer was basically that because the initial cost was from the Treasury and the assumption was any overspend would be paid from the Treasury as well they could make the scheme very generous.

A lot of thinking on how things should be done will need to change in NI. The £1b bribe will not have helped them come to this realisation though, but the time has come for their politicians to start living in the real world and not one where they are subsidized and can spend to their hearts content.

Kermit.de.frog

Nice from Elmer Brock to the Tory on Prime Time explaining how hopelessly dependent Ireland is on "the rest of the UK"

"I'll take my view of Ireland from Dublin, not from London"

joe40

In terms of the north and violence, I thought the DUPs use of the term "blood" red lines was a thinly veiled threat.
I heard very little commentary on the use of that particular term, but to me it was a bit reminiscent of carson and the signing of the ulster covenant in blood.
Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but
they really are a despicable party.

The Pheasant2

joe40 wrote: »

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but
they really are a despicable party.

Nope, I'd say that was their exact intention. Utterly bereft of shame so they are.

Seth Brundle

Boris Johnson's father Stanley is still clueless about the Irish...

When asked what Thatcher would have done with regards to the current state of Anglo-Irish relations and Brexit, he said: "She would have said 'It is quite intolerable that this whole question of the Northern Ireland border has come to dominate the proceedings'.

"She would have said: 'Look, If the Irish want to shoot each other, they will shoot each other - whether there's a hard border or not. That is something the Irish will do.' Mrs Thatcher would not have been schemed by the EU to elevate the border question into a way of making sure we stay in the EU."

https://www.joe.ie/news/boris-johnsons-father-has-a-staggering-and-horrendous-view-on-the-border-issue-644547

Kermit.de.frog

Daily Telegraph tomorrow saying UK will still have to pay £36bn in a no-deal scenario according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Anthracite

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I'm presuming that the poster means that Ireland wouldn't be able to source right hand drive cars anymore since UK car manufacturers make most right hand drive cars. Manufacturers like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Mazda..../s

In terms of plug sockets their point is even more nonsensical.

He seemed to be suggesting we would owe the UK royalties for their nearly 80 year old socket design, or royalties for where the steering wheel is on your car...

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nice from Elmer Brock to the Tory on Prime Time explaining how hopelessly dependent Ireland is on "the rest of the UK"

"I'll take my view of Ireland from Dublin, not from London"

I noticed that aswell. Good on him.

The Tory, once again, propagating that they're our biggest export market - not corrected by the host.

The British are essentially using the border to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market!
Their voters are too stupid to notice this.

Incidentally, why do the Brexiteers think the EU would help them when the British have spoke about breaking up the EU?

The more I think about it the more farcical it is.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

An extension to the transition makes perfect sense for the EU. Basically nothing changes for them (which is what we all want). The UK leave, but there is no actual impact except they don't have to listen to them anymore. And in return the EU gets everything it wants.

The transition period is a wholly made up process anyway.

Is there a downside to the EU from a move like this?

Of course not, is anyone blind enough not to see that there is no chance in hell that the UK will wrap up future trade deal within a 2 year transition period? The transition period will have to be extended, probably several times before a trade deal is done.

The cynic in me thinks that Barnier is suggesting extending it now, just so May can reject the extension and look strong for sticking to her guns on the transition timeline. The EU accepts this knowing that in reality it does not make a blind bit of difference and the trade deal will take as long as it takes anyway.

Once the UK is out of the EU they will already legally have lost all of the treaties. At that point the EU will effectivly be keeping the UK on life support with the transition arangement by temporarily allowing the treaties to remain in effect despite them no longer applying to the UK. The EU can pull the plug on the UK at any point and there would be nothing the UK could do about it.

The Brexiteers claim that they can zip around the world and get loads of great trade deals once they are free of the EU so they won't need the EU treaties anymore, but if you believe they can replace 750+ treaties in 2 years, you would believe anything. Most of the countries and trade blocks that matter will wait and see what deal the EU gives the UK before making any trade deal with them. If you thought the last two years were humiliating for the UK, just wait until they hit the reality of the world of trade. It's a world of sharks, and the UK is bleeding heavily.

The truth of the matter is that the UK will in effect be a vassle of the EU for the next decade at least because of the transition period, subject to EU rules with no say in making them. It's ironic that Brexit will cause the UK to become what Brexit was supposed to free the UK from being.

Folkstonian

I don’t think ‘the british’ want To stay in the single market and customs union. Theresa May does, or at least the customs union. She can make any agreement she wants with Barnier and the rest of the European council, she simply won’t get it through parliament.

I do think a lot of people on this thread have slightly underestimated the fervour of the Brexiters.

The idea that they will collapse at the final hurdle and agree to a customs union to save us from a no deal after two years of repeatedly impressing on the PM how intolerable an option it would be, seems quite unlikely to me. May is obviously counting on it, but she hasn’t got an awful lot right in the last couple of years.

In a peculiar way, I actually wholly understand it as a remainer too. A deal on customs would do absolutely nothing for Britain. Our services sector will be obliterated, while the EU would actually be quite happy with it. It really is an unacceptable option. And like I said, I can’t see career hardline brexiteers capitulating because they got nervy. Most of them don’t see a no deal exit as a disaster at all

briany

I fear it may be too late to even chance another GE and kick the DUP out of their exalted position. May's made such a big deal about the UK being indivisible that she cannot now agree to any backstop without losing a huge amount of face.

Professor Moriarty

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think ‘the british’ want To stay in the single market and customs union. Theresa May does, or at least the customs union. She can make any agreement she wants with Barnier and the rest of the European council, she simply won’t get it through parliament.

I do think a lot of people on this thread have slightly underestimated the fervour of the Brexiters.

The idea that they will collapse at the final hurdle and agree to a customs union to save us from a no deal after two years of repeatedly impressing on the PM how intolerable an option it would be, seems quite unlikely to me. May is obviously counting on it, but she hasn’t got an awful lot right in the last couple of years.

In a peculiar way, I actually wholly understand it as a remainer too. A deal on customs would do absolutely nothing for Britain. Our services sector will be obliterated, while the EU would actually be quite happy with it. It really is an unacceptable option. And like I said, I can’t see career hardline brexiteers capitulating because they got nervy. Most of them don’t see a no deal exit as a disaster at all

Considering that not all Leave voters agree with Mogg, Johnson, Davies etc. and considering that all Remain voters disagree with them, what percentage of British people agree with them that a 'No Deal' isn't a disaster at all?

Folkstonian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think ‘the british’ want To stay in the single market and customs union. Theresa May does, or at least the customs union. She can make any agreement she wants with Barnier and the rest of the European council, she simply won’t get it through parliament.

I do think a lot of people on this thread have slightly underestimated the fervour of the Brexiters.

The idea that they will collapse at the final hurdle and agree to a customs union to save us from a no deal after two years of repeatedly impressing on the PM how intolerable an option it would be, seems quite unlikely to me. May is obviously counting on it, but she hasn’t got an awful lot right in the last couple of years.

In a peculiar way, I actually wholly understand it as a remainer too. A deal on customs would do absolutely nothing for Britain. Our services sector will be obliterated, while the EU would actually be quite happy with it. It really is an unacceptable option. And like I said, I can’t see career hardline brexiteers capitulating because they got nervy. Most of them don’t see a no deal exit as a disaster at all

Considering that not all Leave voters agree with Mogg, Johnson, Davies etc. and considering that all Remain voters disagree with them, what percentage of British people agree with them that a 'No Deal' isn't a disaster at all?

I’ve no idea. What’s the answer?

Imreoir2

An Claidheamh wrote: »

I noticed that aswell. Good on him.

The Tory, once again, propagating that they're our biggest export market - not corrected by the host.

The British are essentially using the border to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market!
Their voters are too stupid to notice this.

Incidentally, why do the Brexiteers think the EU would help them when the British have spoke about breaking up the EU?

The more I think about it the more farcical it is.

To be fair, he wasn't the worst, for a Tory. (A low bar, I know.)
He did not say they are our biggest export market, he said that we are dependant on the UK for trade, which is true when you take our use of the UK as a landbridge to the EU into account.

He is not wrong that it is in our interest that there be a deal, no-deal will have a significant impact on us. Obviously he is taking his countries part and making the case that we should work together to get a deal, I don't think you could expect him to do otherwise. He was at least well versed on the issue and mostly accurate in his statements. Much better than some Tory MP's that have been in the media lately.

judeboy101

Any word if barniers backstop for ni is timelimited?

Sam Russell

judeboy101 wrote: »

Any word if barniers backstop for ni is timelimited?

All weather.

Professor Moriarty

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’ve no idea. What’s the answer?

In my opinion, very few. According to this poll, only 18% would be happy to see Britain crash out with no deal. Further proof of the stupidity of having a simplistic and binary referendum in the first place.

Water John

A backstop, by definition cannot have a time limit. If someone can propose a clever way of achieving it I will listen.

Junkyard Tom

Folkstonian wrote: »

Most of them don’t see a no deal exit as a disaster at all

The Brexiter politicians? No wonder, they're all insulated with their wealth and iron-clad public jobs/pensions. There's a serious lack of class analysis of the Brexit gang in the media.

Professor Moriarty

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The Brexiter politicians? No wonder, they're all insulated with their wealth and iron-clad public jobs/pensions. There's a serious lack of class analysis of the Brexit gang in the media.

Exactly. As if Old Etonians give a rat's ass about the hoi polloi.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think ‘the british’ want To stay in the single market and customs union. Theresa May does, or at least the customs union. She can make any agreement she wants with Barnier and the rest of the European council, she simply won’t get it through parliament.

I do think a lot of people on this thread have slightly underestimated the fervour of the Brexiters.

The idea that they will collapse at the final hurdle and agree to a customs union to save us from a no deal after two years of repeatedly impressing on the PM how intolerable an option it would be, seems quite unlikely to me. May is obviously counting on it, but she hasn’t got an awful lot right in the last couple of years.

In a peculiar way, I actually wholly understand it as a remainer too. A deal on customs would do absolutely nothing for Britain. Our services sector will be obliterated, while the EU would actually be quite happy with it. It really is an unacceptable option. And like I said, I can’t see career hardline brexiteers capitulating because they got nervy. Most of them don’t see a no deal exit as a disaster at all

I wish there was a way to find out how many that voted to leave was comfortable with staying in the single market and customs union as this was told to them.

As for what Theresa May wants, I don't think anyone knows as she is agreeing to deals that would keep the UK in both, then gets rebuffed by either her party or the DUP, but her speeches talk about leaving both. I think we can safely say the only thing she wants is to stay in No.10 and will do anything to achieve that.

zapitastas

charlie14 wrote: »

Quite a few of them, but after the Hunt Report the worst of them were either weeded out or there was stricter control of their "activities"

The absolute worst of them were taken into the fold and allowed to operate with impunity around Armagh and down.

Folkstonian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’ve no idea. What’s the answer?

In my opinion, very few. According to this poll, only 18% would be happy to see Britain crash out with no deal. Further proof of the stupidity of having a simplistic and binary referendum in the first place.

But May’s withdrawal agreement plan is not going to be put to the public. I think that’s got to be accepted now, and by and large it is. Some may call it apathy, or Brexit fatigue, or just realism.

If her whole plan really does rely on the ERG capitulating during the final vote to accept a customs union/partnership/arrangement (I don’t know what the current terminology is) or face the prospect of a no deal Brexit, it’s the no deal Brexit that’s going to prevail.

There’s been a fair amount of talk in this discussion that people expect enough of them to sh*t themselves do a complete about turn after two years ie more of banging the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ drum. I just don’t see it. They’d have to explain jettisoning their convictions to angry Brexit supporters in Tory/leave heartlands, and I don’t quite know how they’d manage that.