Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

There’s been a fair amount of talk in this discussion that people expect enough of them to sh*t themselves do a complete about turn after two years ie more of banging the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ drum. I just don’t see it. They’d have to explain jettisoning their convictions to angry Brexit supporters in Tory/leave heartlands, and I don’t quite know how they’d manage that.

I don't recall a lot of posters on here expecting the ERG to give in. What I have seen is a lot of posters stating it will be no deal and a lot more frequently. There is only 2 options now, NI in the single market and customs union while the rest of the UK isn't, and no deal. I think most see no deal as the favourite due to the numbers in the HoC.

Imreoir2

Folkstonian wrote: »

But May’s withdrawal agreement plan is not going to be put to the public. I think that’s got to be accepted now, and by and large it is. Some may call it apathy, or Brexit fatigue, or just realism.

If her whole plan really does rely on the ERG capitulating during the final vote to accept a customs union/partnership/arrangement (I don’t know what the current terminology is) or face the prospect of a no deal Brexit, it’s the no deal Brexit that’s going to prevail.

There’s been a fair amount of talk in this discussion that people expect enough of them to sh*t themselves do a complete about turn after two years ie more of banging the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ drum. I just don’t see it. They’d have to explain jettisoning their convictions to angry Brexit supporters in Tory/leave heartlands, and I don’t quite know how they’d manage that.

The reality is that we don't know how TM is going to get a deal through Parliament. She might have a plan, she might not. We won't know until she agrees a deal with the EU and put's it to the vote. It may require convincing / forcing some members of the ERG to toe the line, it might need some cross party support from Labour MP's. Ultimatly how that sussage is made is TM's problem. If the need is great enough, then anything is possible, and given that the alternative is no-deal, the need is great indeed.

If the deal is voted down, then the UK is in totally uncharted waters, it would be the biggest crisis for the UK since WWII.

Folkstonian

I think a no deal Brexit is also increasingly likely too. I can’t for the life of me understand why the conservatives have allowed May to continue chasing a fantasy, knowing that even if she got half of what she was asking for, she wouldn’t be able to get it past parliament.

It seems to me that for all their long range sniping, the conservatives have been as paralysed with indecision as Theresa May on where they go with a new leader and a new strategy.

Thinking about it recently, the ‘best’ realistic (emphasis on that word) outcome might have been for a figure like Gove or even Jeremy Hunt to have been elected leader of the tories, so that a ‘managed’ semi-hard Brexit could have been agreed upon. I think, possibly, it would have been the only realistic avenue to take Brexit down if they were serious about getting it through parliament and averting the no deal. Needed to be done 3 months ago, mind, so that ship has long since sailed.

Bigus

Another good article in the guardian

"I have made no false promises on Brexit – I’m free to tell you the truth
John Major"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/16/false-promises-brexit-john-major

Angry bird

A no deal Brexit will see a surge in support for both Scotland and Northern Ireland to leave the Union. Mays disastrous governments and indeed a weak opposition in Labour are truly playing with fire on the back of fervent English nationalism.

Junkyard Tom

We're in the bizarre position where SF are arguing for a deal that will probably put the North's constitutional question back in the cupboard for a couple of decades while the DUP seem hell bent on making it an issue and indeed are risking breaking up the UK if there's no Britain-EU deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Anthracite wrote: »

He seemed to be suggesting we would owe the UK royalties for their nearly 80 year old socket design, or royalties for where the steering wheel is on your car...

You know the way the live and neutral pins have some plastic on them to stop you getting electrocuted if you touch one while a plug is half way in or out ?

EU rules.

MrMusician18

Peston I think it was, was talking earlier that an event limited backstop looks like how the UK wants to get out of this mess. Essentially a third party arbitrator would determine if some specified condition has been met to allow the backstop to fall.

Can't see it flying tbh.

charlie14

zapitastas wrote: »

The absolute worst of them were taken into the fold and allowed to operate with impunity around Armagh and down.

If that is where they went then it would part explain a lot of what subsequently went on in that area. Especially south Armagh.
I was then living in Donegal and after 1970, bad and all as the UDR were in the border areas there, they were better than the B Specials. With special emphasis on the B.

LuckyLloyd

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph tomorrow saying UK will still have to pay £36bn in a no-deal scenario according to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

There’s nothing new in that. The “divorce payment” is an estimation of outstanding commitments upon leaving so - in the event of a No Deal crash out - the EU would pursue those liabilities via international arbitration. The UK could refuse to accept the results of any such process of course, further damaging the perception of their word in a scenario where they are scrambling to cobble together treaty’s and trade deals to keep the lights on.

LuckyLloyd

Folkstonian wrote: »

I do think a lot of people on this thread have slightly underestimated the fervour of the Brexiters.

Their fervour has never been underestimated here, quite the opposite infact with many identifying the religiosity that underpins Brexit. What has been rightly underestimated is their realism, competence and relevance. What they wanted was never going to be offered and we’re merely approaching the point where the best terms on offer are either accepted or rejected by May’s government and we move onto the consequences of that decision.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1032428/brexit-news-irish-border-ireland-france-emmanuel-macron-theresa-may

Headline:

“BREXIT BREAKTHROUGH: France CAVES IN over Irish border as May secures huge UK victory”

You can see where the delusion comes from anyway.

Zubeneschamali

Folkstonian wrote: »

A deal on customs would do absolutely nothing for Britain. Our services sector will be obliterated, while the EU would actually be quite happy with it. It really is an unacceptable option.

The question is not whether CU membership would be worse than EU membership. Every Brexit is worse than EU membership, we all know this.


The question is whether CU membership is worse than a Canada-style free trade agreement. The answer is no: the further the deal is from EU membership, the worse it is for the UK.



The only deal worse than Canada is WTO terms. The only Brexit better than a CU is Norway with Single Market access.

Zubeneschamali

Folkstonian wrote: »

If her whole plan really does rely on the ERG capitulating during the final vote to accept a customs union/partnership/arrangement (I don’t know what the current terminology is) or face the prospect of a no deal Brexit, it’s the no deal Brexit that’s going to prevail.

The ERG did not campaign for a no deal Brexit, and don't in fact want one. They want a free trade agreement.

Asmooh

Sorry people what I meant yesterday was: If a "United Ireland" would come, which won't happen but still.
The IRA will target everything british straight away like they did before.

I don't see anything good happen with a united ireland especially when i see the hate against British and the other way around.

Rhineshark

Asmooh wrote: »

Sorry people what I meant yesterday was: If a "United Ireland" would come, which won't happen but still.
The IRA will target everything british straight away like they did before.

I don't see anything good happen with a united ireland especially when i see the hate against British and the other way around.

Weren't you the guy yesterday that wanted a Trumpian wall built between NI and RoI and then to remove all rights from Irish NI citizens (or possibly Irish people in general, it was difficult to tell), including the right to speak a flippin' language, as if hearing the dread Gaeilge caused you physical pain?

Hatred indeed.

If there was a UI, at least British-identifying people would not be treated as poorly as you want Irish-identifying people treated.

Asmooh

Rhineshark wrote: »

If there was a UI, at least British-identifying people would not be treated as poorly as you want Irish-identifying people treated.

I don't agree there.
If you look at the history just see how british people were treated.

listermint

Asmooh wrote: »

Sorry people what I meant yesterday was: If a "United Ireland" would come, which won't happen but still.
The IRA will target everything british straight away like they did before.

I don't see anything good happen with a united ireland especially when i see the hate against British and the other way around.

This is nonsense.


You have nothing to draw this point of view from.
. rethoric of the highest order

listermint

Asmooh wrote: »

I don't agree there.
If you look at the history just see how british people were treated.

It's evident you are just trying to wind people up. I have yet to see a valid point of discussion from you. You talked some amount of waffle about payment for plugs yesterday.

Perplexing indeed.

Asmooh

listermint wrote: »

This is nonsense.


You have nothing to draw this point of view from.
. rethoric of the highest order

Are you sure? it's already a mess in NI at the moment Irish vs British.. not everything might come to your local news though.

Rhineshark

Asmooh wrote: »

I don't agree there.
If you look at the history just see how british people were treated.

Look at your own posts for how you personally want to treat Irish people. NI nationalists and frankly the NI majority have no voice in what's going on. Unionists are partly pro-Brexit because mostly it will be the nationalists that get the ****ty end of the border stick and they appear to be fine, if not actively delighted about it.

And British people are mostly treated just like, y'know, people down here. Half my family are British.

Edit: btw, no-one owes the UK money for driving on the left side of the road or using three-pin plugs.

Enzokk

Asmooh wrote: »

I don't agree there.
If you look at the history just see how british people were treated.

It seems to me that one of the worries for people in NI that are dreading a unified Ireland is that they will be treated the same way that they have treated the "Irish" in NI up to the GFA. This is on par with how white people in South Africa thought they would be treated if the ANC was given power in 1994.

Don't worry though, a country that has an leader that is from Indian descent and gay says that there shouldn't be discrimination just because you are perceived as different. We aren't like that here, speaking as an immigrant to these shores myself.

BonnieSituation

Asmooh wrote: »

Are you sure? it's already a mess in NI at the moment Irish vs British.. not everything might come to your local news though.

Given you're "from" the North as you say, I find everything about your posts perplexing from content to syntax to phraseology.

It's almost like you weren't a native English speaker or something. More of an Ulster Scots kinda fella?

ancapailldorcha

Asmooh wrote: »

I don't agree there.
If you look at the history just see how british people were treated.

Asmooh wrote: »

Are you sure? it's already a mess in NI at the moment Irish vs British.. not everything might come to your local news though.

Enough of this please. Back on topic.

Leroy42

What should Ireland response be if the backstop is watered down which clearly is a major sticking point in the negotiations and TM has stated that she is unwilling to sign up without a time limit?

Should Ireland veto any deal, and thus force a hard border?

Should we accept it and realise that the EU has not stood up for us or the EU in the end and that might is right? Wouldn't we then be better off to look to leave on the same terms?

It seems a crash out is the worst possible outcome for everyone for surely Ireland will come under huge pressure to try to limit the damage?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Should Ireland veto any deal, and thus force a hard border?

Yes, of course.The UK cannot exit with no deal in March, they need a transition period and at a minimum a free trade agreement with the EU.

So we call their bluff.

But it won't come to that - the EU has been very clear (to borrow a phrase) that the backstop is in green text already - it is agreed, it is not time limited, and it is going in the Withdrawal Agreement if there is one.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, of course.The UK cannot exit with no deal in March, they need a transition period and at a minimum a free trade agreement with the EU.

So we call their bluff.

But it won't come to that - the EU has been very clear (to borrow a phrase) that the backstop is in green text already - it is agreed, it is not time limited, and it is going in the Withdrawal Agreement if there is one.

well if it is a red line (blood red or otherwise) for the UK - then no such deal will be sanctioned in Westminster

So it may come down to either Leinster House gives in or Westminster gives in.

I can't see these old school Tory "rule britannia" types giving in to little ol Ireland... Paddy knows his place and all that. They'd vote this down out of equal measures pride and spite.

Peregrinus

Technically, we can't veto a Withdrawal Agreement. On the EU side, a WA requires approval by (a) a simple majority in the Parliament, and (b) a qualified majority in the Council. Ireland on its own cannot block a qualified majority; we would need support from other states.

However any future relationship treaty will require unanimity, so I suppose in theory we could say that if the WA is concluded over our protests and fails to deliver an open border, we will veto any subsequent FRT.

But, as Zub has said, it won't come to that. We are where we because the EU has adopted and held to the stance it did. And it didn't adopt that stance out of a desire to be nice to us. There are two factors at work.

1. At heart, the EU is fundamentally a peace project. So defending the GFA and the peace process is absolutely in line with how the EU sees itself and what it is all about.

2. Ireland is only a small state but, then, most of the members states are only small states. The Brexit negotiations are a situation above all others in which the EU has an interest in demonstrating to small states the merits of being part of a greater Union. If you accept that for the the EU the Brexit negotiations are a harm minimisation exercise, then absolutely the last thing the EU will want to do is conduct those negotiations in a way which suggest that the concerns and needs of small states will be thrown overboard if it suits the interests majority. If the UK had actively tried to engineer a situation in which the EU was motivated to stick by Ireland, they could not have done a better job.

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

What should Ireland response be if the backstop is watered down which clearly is a major sticking point in the negotiations and TM has stated that she is unwilling to sign up without a time limit?

Should Ireland veto any deal, and thus force a hard border?

Should we accept it and realise that the EU has not stood up for us or the EU in the end and that might is right? Wouldn't we then be better off to look to leave on the same terms?

It seems a crash out is the worst possible outcome for everyone for surely Ireland will come under huge pressure to try to limit the damage?

My worry is that the EU may stand behind us in the border issue but there will be a price to pay, maybe in the form of corporation tax, down the line.
Maybe the border issue shouldn't be our biggest concern.

I know that will be an unpopular position, but I just don't want to use up all our goodwill from the EU on this one issue.

barry181091

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/oct/17/divided-britain-study-finds-huge-chasm-in-attitudes

This is just sad