Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

McGiver

I'm shocked but the abysmal level is of UK journalism and also political discourse.

Everyone and everywhere (except BBC) they talk about a "deal". It's not a deal, just a withdrawal agreement, it will take years to get the deal. There's a huge amount of ignorance and confusion about this.

Sturgeon:

If this deal is indeed rejected by Parliament, then the UK Government must return to the negotiating table to secure a better one.

It's not a deal, and the time is up. I don't know if it's just a political play or ignorance. Renegotiation isn't possible now. It's take it or leave it.

Tinder Surprise

Peregrinus wrote: »

If May hadn't targetted a hard Brexit, but instead sought to build a middle-ground consensus for a deal that sought to address the concerns of remainers, I believe the UK could have negotiated a much better deal, and had a majority for it in Parliament.

a certain element of hindsight, but very true!

I'm no May apologist but she was always trying pull things together with no real strength and trying to build foundations on the shifting sands of her own party.
her biggest mistake but was not putting in a chief negotiator from the start

blanch152

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nominal wages are rising in the UK, but so is inflation. Real wages growth is practically static. It was running at about 1.8% just before the Brexit referendum, but then slumped to a low of -0.5% (as in, real wages were shrinking) and has now recovered to 0.2%. All in all, it's a dismal performance.


This is the complete opposite of the truth, as just noted. Real wages growth was higher before the Brexit referendum than it has been at any time since, and in fact this is in large part due to the rise in inflation which followed the referendum.


It could have been averted if the EU wasn't busy turning itself into a low-skilled gig economy. Persistent sluggish wage growth in the UK is linked to the static productivity of the UK labour force, in marked distinction to other EU countries, and this in turn is thought to be due to underinvestment.

I agree with your analysis on wages but that is only because you and I have at least a basic understanding of economics.

For the vast majority of people, real wages increases don't figure in their consciousness, only gross wages increases. If someone is getting a 5% increase in wages at a time of 5% inflation, they value that higher than a 2% increase at a time of 1% inflation. Bizarre and wrong, as well as irrational, but that is how people think.

So technically you are correct, but the other poster has a point.

joe40

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Only the real politicos have tbf. If you're obsessed with the game playing side of politics the 'art of getting to Friday' nonsense there might be some love for how she's managed to hold onto power throughout the process. But as noted on here multiple times before, everything about her Red Lines; triggering of A50; choice of negotiators; negotiating strategy; general election decision: every significant decision she has made has worsened her position at every turn. Eventually the piper had to be paid in the form of a draft withdrawal agreement.

Make no mistake: this is a *terrible* deal for the UK. It is far worse than EU membership and the leverage will be with the EU in the coming decade of trade negotiations. I am not in the least surprised by that, but it will send shock-waves through the UK electorate who (however huffy Folkstonian might be to this) have struggled at all stages to grasp the fundamental facts of the situation, largely down to the nature of their media. This is a good thing. It finally lays bare the folly of Brexit. Sure, the Brexiteers will argue that this deal is an abomination but it is the deal on offer. That clarifies this matter a great deal and focuses the coming conversations.

So I feel an extraordinary sense of calm from the Irish perspective. This deal may not carry, but given the final public acceptance of it being the best deal on offer it may hasten a second referendum and ultimately this silly English nonsense could well be called off. The EU has the whip hand now in all eventualities: for if they commit an obstinate Hari Kari of No Deal they'll be back at the negotiating table in a few years cap in hand.

Agree fully with your analysis. I just wish I could share your "Sense of calm". The ideal would be a second referendum to give a remain vote and call of the "silly English nonsense" (well put)
But I'm still concerned we could be looking at a no deal Scenario, which would be a disaster for us, especially in border areas.
The only hope I have is that Labour, Lib dems and moderate tories will not push the UK over that particular cliff.
Hard line brexiteers and DUP would do it in a heartbeat

Akrasia

VinLieger wrote: »

Wont happen with Corbyn as leader

Corbyn ran the last GE on the basis of respecting the 'will of the people' but that won't fly this time. If there is a snap election, he knows that the majority of his supporters want a 2nd referendum and of the brexiters, half of them want to crash out, the other half want things that are totally incompatible with the EU's requirements

Zubeneschamali

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

“No deal” here we come

No Deal is national suicide and won't happen.

More likely scenarios:

The ERG decide to vote for the deal because of the risk that brexit will be cancelled if they don't.

A GE will be called and A50 withdrawn "temporarily" to allow time for it.

A 2nd ref. will be called and A50 will be withdrawn ditto.

Tinder Surprise

15 resignations and counting (3 this morning)

Esther McVey just now

May is goosed!

Hurrache

Esther McVey resigned just now too.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Shailesh Vara - Northern Ireland Minister
Dominic Raab - Brexit Secretary
Esther McVey - Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

charlie14

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't think Fox's attitude would be May's attitude. May is a genuine unionist based on the way she speaks about the 'precious union' and realises there has to be some way of avoiding a hard border to safeguard the union's future. I believe she's pinning her hopes on achieving an open border through a future EU/UK deal. Privately I suspect she would not like NI to be in a different orbit to the UK, but the possibility that it could be looks like it was enough to convince Fox that his plans can be achieved long-term.

This is why I think the DUP are playing a dangerous game. A few weeks back the ERG were talking up a possible Super Canada style deal, which hit the rocks due to the fantasy stuff about technology solving the border issue. For most of these ERG types, the border is something they don't care about or understand.

With that being the case, are the DUP really unconcerned about toppling a genuinely, passionate unionist like May and potentially have her replaced with a more token unionist figure whose main priority would not be unionist unity, but rather big international deals - with chlorinated chickens and whatnot - that would necessitate NI being pulled closer to the EU sphere and away from the UK sphere?

Do they really think a PM Johnson or Gove is going to rebuff a glitzy trade deal with the US that would necessitate such divergence, in order to satisfy 200,000 plus voters in NI, whose influence is gradually going to reduce anyway due to the inevitable demographic changes under way? I think they're making poor long-term calculations, with supporting Brexit being the biggest one of all.

The DUP do nor do long-term calculations. Never have. The fight every battle backs to the wall shouting no, never, while appearing to believe NI unionism is still living in the days when Catholics were treated like second class citizens, gerrymandering was politically acceptable and the police force was only there to enforce their will. Upon losing each battle they refuse to learn anything, running to the next wall to put their backs up against it to shout no, never.

The Tory party may be officially the Conservative and Unionist Party but they are no more unionist in the NI sense than chalk is to cheese. They will pay lip service to keep them on side when they need their vote to prop them up in parliament.The Tory party know that politically NI unionists are so toxic that in Westminster they have nowhere else to go as no other party would touch them with a barge pole and when needed use that fact for their own purposes. Even that God of NI unionism, Edward Carson came to realise that eventually.

Theresa May may pay lip service to the "precious union" but it is only window dressing to give them a warm fuzzy feeling. But that like all in the Tory party that is all it is, window dressing and lip service. Like all the rest of her party when it comes to expediency she would throw them under the bus without a seconds thought as she was quite happy to do in December without even mentioning it to them. If anybody thinks she ever had any interest in that NI "precious union" they only need to look too her appointment of a Secretary of State for NI, Karen Bradley, someone who is so clueless on NI she would not have been able to find it on a map without help. Probably still would have difficulty.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

She targetted a hard brexit, raising expectations that could not be met, and nailing her head to the mast with absurd "red lines" that proved to be ruinous.

The deal she's got is softer than the one she targetted, hence the disappointed expectations of brexiters, but not nearly soft enough to avert much of the harm of Brexit.

I wasn't referring to disappointed hard brexiteers - sure nothing short of isolationism would ever be enough for them to be happy..

But the rest of Parliament? Surely this is soft enough for some and hard enough for others?

lawred2

Anthracite wrote: »

Non-EU immigration to the UK has always exceeded EU immigration, often by a factor of 2 IIRC.

I'd love to see the figures for skilled migrants..

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Esther McVey resigned just now too.

If there is a third resignation within the hour, then the resignations are probably being orchestrated. If that's the case, then then May's government is gone.

kowtow

It makes one wonder with all the delay at Cabinet yesterday just how close she came to not coming out and making a statement at all.... it really does look as though she barely carried the Cabinet and only then because there was no obvious way out of the mess she had created.

There does seem to be a common thread with May of over-bearing micromanagement, under delivery, over reliance on some (poorly) chosen advisers, and undermining of appointed ministers....

prawnsambo

James O'Brien on LBC this morning. "Cameron called the brexit referendum to unite the Tory party..."

Professor Moriarty

kowtow wrote: »

It makes one wonder with all the delay at Cabinet yesterday just how close she came to not coming out and making a statement at all.... it really does look as though she barely carried the Cabinet and only then because there was no obvious way out of the mess she had created.

There does seem to be a common thread with May of over-bearing micromanagement, under delivery, over reliance on some (poorly) chosen advisers, and undermining of appointed ministers....

It's widely reported that 11 ministers at the table argued vehemently against the deal and others were lukewarm at best. It would seem that it was the principle of collective responsibility got her deal through the meeting. Calls for a vote were torpedoed as only the PM can call for a vote at cabinet.

prawnsambo

Can't see Theresa May lasting the day.

Tabnabs

Micheal Gove (Secretary for Environment, Rural Affairs, and Food) rumoured to be wavering.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Can't see Theresa May lasting the day.

I think if Mordaunt goes she's in serious trouble. It's only a straw in the wind but sterling started tanking once Raab resigned.

ilovesmybrick

Another gone, Suella Braverman

Professor Moriarty

Tabnabs wrote: »

Micheal Gove (Secretary for Environment, Rural Affairs, and Food) rumoured to be wavering.

If he goes, her cabinet is dust.

Inquitus

Tabnabs wrote: »

Micheal Gove (Secretary for Environment, Rural Affairs, and Food) rumoured to be wavering.

Gove and Mordaunt could be the next 2, I think that would be the end for May. I think she is being judged too harshly, she messed up handing A50 in when she did, but almost her whole party agreed with doing that. She has put the good of the country first in agreeing a deal with the EU, which is honestly about as good as could be expected, I guess she is unwilling to throw the UK off the hard brexit cliff, and any rightminded PM would be.

Nuno

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If there is a third resignation within the hour, then the resignations are probably being orchestrated. If that's the case, then then May's government is gone.

Yesterday it was rumoured Post 4074 Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey would resign. So possibly one down and one more to go?

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1062709478913699840

Inquitus

Junior Minister goes, who was under Raab, not that surprising she was a former head of the ERG.

https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1063014302142083073

ilovesmybrick

And another, Anne-Marie Trevelyan

https://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1063013858921594881

BBC news studio guests laughing at Rory Stewart and calling him delusional

Hurrache

Larbre34 wrote: »

Deleted post.

This also gave me a chuckle
https://twitter.com/catherinemep/status/1063013431446589440

Professor Moriarty

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

And another, Anne-Marie Trevelyan

https://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1063013858921594881

She was always going to go. She makes Mogg look like a softie.

Larbre34

Inquitus wrote: »

Gove and Mordaunt could be the next 2, I think that would be the end for May. I think she is being judged too harshly, she messed up handing A50 in when she did, but almost her whole party agreed with doing that. She has put the good of the country first in agreeing a deal with the EU, which is honestly about as good as could be expected, I guess she is unwilling to throw the UK off the hard brexit cliff, and any rightminded PM would be.

She can never be judged too harshly for the abortive general election. It was a catastrophic political miscalculation, influenced by a few amateurish aides, that handed her last remaining cards to the EU to give them the full house. They never had to take her or her agenda seriously again. Had the pressing issue been anything other than brexit, she'd have been 1922'd instantly.

May is a weak and broken leader.

Nuno

Good explainer video of the arithmetic for the deal to pass through a HoC vote