Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Tabnabs

Does Gove perhaps think he can sniff a potential leadership position in the wind? Is he manoeuvring to put himself forward as the best candidate?

Tinder Surprise

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Think there is now two clear options that can be put on a ballot for a second referendum. People voted to leave without knowing what it looked like two and a half years ago.Now there is a clear withdrawal agreement. The EU and UK negotiating teams have each went to the limit of their flexibility.

This would be a referendum on what type of Brexit the people want. Yes the Brexiters will never be happy with this, but both options are Brexit, one hard and one soft.

So take the deal, or hard Brexit are the options.

is there no 'Keep the Staus Quo' option...carry on as was with full membership?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't dump GIF's and pics in this thread.

Seth Brundle

I'm not sure who I dislike more: Morgan or BoJo...
https://twitter.com/GNev2/status/1063055339942305792

Zubeneschamali

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

So take the deal, or hard Brexit are the options.

They have not negotiated an agreement for hard Brexit, so the only hard brexit on offer is a no deal crashout, which would be national economic suicide.

Putting No Deal on a referendum ballot would be even more irresponsible than Cameron's irresponsible referendum.

barry181091

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1063072940743376897

We could be onto something here!

SimonTemplar

A second ref should be either:

a) a deal (whatever form that takes, probably the one May is advocating for now)
b) remain

VinLieger

barry181091 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1063072940743376897

We could be onto something here!

A conservative split would just be the icing on the cake

Seth Brundle

https://twitter.com/HenrySmithUK/status/1063062577142472704

AlmightyCushion

Seth Brundle wrote: »

https://twitter.com/HenrySmithUK/status/1063062577142472704

Why didn't he just type up 'Dear Graham' and "Yours sincerely' part?

Prominent_Dawg

Just overheard “I’m really looking forward to the season finale of the United Kingdom”

circadian

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Why didn't he just type up 'Dear Graham' and "Yours sincerely' part?

Probably a generic letter thrown together.

daheff

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If they have the letters how soon could a confidence vote take place?

Tuesday according to Sophy Ridge

joe40 wrote: »

The only people who can collapse the government is the Tories so why would they do that

Same reason they opted to have a Brexit vote- no idea what they are doing!!

Tabnabs

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Why didn't he just type up 'Dear Graham' and "Yours sincerely' part?

It seems to be the done thing when MPs, Ministers etc. write to the PM. You see it regular enough.

breatheme

demfad wrote: »

Gove was the only Leave supporting Minister to back May in cabinet last night according to Robert Preston. Then again Murdoch owned entities are acting weird the last week.

Liam Fox is not gone. His appointment always meant that a hard Brexit would be attempted (connections to US Conservative Think Tanks for the US FTA).
Useful man to have if the UK crashed out. Worrying.

Meanwhile on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/DamianOS3/status/1063018731016781824

He's either lazy or a coward (or both). Boris will never be PM until after Brexit. I can't see anyone who would be PM before that either. (Though if May is ousted, then I may just have to eat my words.)

Ray Bloody Purchase

breatheme wrote: »

He's either lazy or a coward (or both). Boris will never be PM until after Brexit. I can't see anyone who would be PM before that either. (Though if May is ousted, then I may just have to eat my words.)

Is it the case that she is not gone because no one else wants to take over what is a total sh1t show?

seamus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Putting No Deal on a referendum ballot would be even more irresponsible than Cameron's irresponsible referendum.

You would have to put it on the ballot though. "Do nothing" is not "Remain", because article 50 has already been triggered. "Do nothing" is "No deal".

I've had difficulty finding any international standards except that a referendum is typically expected to take the form of a proposal, and the electorate asked to accept or reject that proposal.

That's not say that a multiple-choice referendum, or an "Option A or Option B" referendum is impossible, but would be highly irregular, probably open to legal challenge.

In this case, you'd need multiple referenda:

- "The UK should sign the Brexit deal" (Accept/Reject)
- "The UK should withdraw its notification under article 50" (Accept/Reject)

In any case, I think another referendum is probably quite unlikely. There is absolutely nothing stopping Parliament from deciding to withdraw Article 50 (except the agreement of the EU). Another referendum is not required.

In the event that GE results, it will probably become a de facto referendum with parties campaigning on the basis of whether they'll cancel Brexit, accept the existing deal, or try to negotiate a new deal.

Zubeneschamali

seamus wrote: »

"Do nothing" is "No deal".

Driving off a cliff is doing something, even if a referendum 2 years ago told you to drive due East towards the Channel.

Mr.Nice Guy

I figured May would win a confidence vote fairly handily but maybe it's not so straightforward.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

breatheme

Ray Bloody Purchase wrote: »

Is it the case that she is not gone because no one else wants to take over what is a total sh1t show?

It seems like it.

Boris could've been PM but then he didn't because... uh, "Gove didn't want to be friends anymore " (Me, back then: :rolleyes: )

He was the obvious candidate. He was the major player in the Leave Campaign.

Get your tinfoil hat on, cause it's conspiracy theory time (you may have heard this before):

Boris is actually a Remainer at heart. (As evidenced by his Telegraph article, supporting Remain.) However, He's always wanted to take the party from Cameron's hands. During the run-off to the Brexit Referendum, he actually chose to support Leave to put himself in opposition to Cameron. He'd be the champion of the EUsceptics of his party. But then he fully expected Leave to lose. (As evidenced by his ghastly speech aftwerads.) However, he'd have the Leaver's lifelong support. That would have enabled him to take over Cameron at a later Leadership Contest, however, once PM, he could comfortably say: "We already had a referendum. It has been decided. I will not press the matter further." And leave it at that.

But it all backfired.

He doesn't want to be the PM to carry the UK through Brexit and if he doesn't, who does?

Inquitus

Odds for new Tory leader

Dominic Raab - 5/1

Sajid Javid - 11/2

Boris Johnson - 6/1

Michael Gove - 17/2

*Jeremy Hunt - 17/2

Jacob Rees-Mogg - 17/2

David Davis - 17/2

* Remainer in 2016, although has recently embraced Brexit more or less. All the rest are Brexiteers.

Professor Moriarty

Inquitus wrote: »

Odds for new Tory leader

Dominic Raab - 5/1

Sajid Javid - 11/2

Boris Johnson - 6/1

Michael Gove - 17/2

*Jeremy Hunt - 17/2

Jacob Rees-Mogg - 17/2

David Davis - 17/2

* Remainer in 2016, although has recently embraced Brexit more or less

Such is the sorry state of the Tory party.

A Dub in Glasgo

seamus wrote: »

In any case, I think another referendum is probably quite unlikely. There is absolutely nothing stopping Parliament from deciding to withdraw Article 50 (except the agreement of the EU). Another referendum is not required.

Just on this, there is doubt if agreement is actually required. The ECJ will give it's judgement soon enough

https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/strengthening/

Zubeneschamali

Raab is the favourite?

A week after he admitted learning recently that Britain is an island near France?

Infini

barry181091 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1063072940743376897

We could be onto something here!

If the remainer's break away and there's a cross party support for a 2nd referendum this could trigger the one effective way out of this mess. I think at this point the penny will drop in the HoC that the deal before them is not worth the price of leaving.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Such is the sorry state of the Tory party.

That list is just one of deluded fantasists who not only believe brexit is as easy as they claim but that they have requisite skills to lead a country as split as the UK. Not that May has those either though.

Leroy42

The likes of Raab, Mogg etc all claiming that the whole thing is terrible and that simply not believing enough was the root cause.

How is Raab and Davis getting away so lightly. Surely Raab should be grilled on why he let the farce go this far (as he believes the deal is terrible) and what exactly he has done over the last few months?

As Piers Morgan tweeted today, now is the time for Johnson to stand up and lay out his plan. what exactly will he deliver, or what does he want delivered. And they should all be asked if they are against this deal what is the plan going forward? No Deal? Re-enter talks? To what end, to change what? What are they prepared to give up to get something added?

That these charlatans are still allowed to come on the media and spout the nonsense about being totally against the deal, yet 2+ years after the ref they still haven't, and can't, put any viable plan together themselves, is embarrassing for all concerned.

Tinder Surprise

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Such is the sorry state of the Tory party.

every cloud...

Zubeneschamali

Infini wrote: »

I think at this point the penny will drop in the HoC that the deal before them is not worth the price of leaving.

All they need to figure out after that is that there is no possible deal that is worth the price of leaving.

Spook_ie

one armed dwarf wrote: »

Is it not the case that markets have priced in the worst case scenario (no deal) and short term volatility is just on the spot reaction to the bad news?

I won't claim I'm informed on any of this but I've got all my savings in GBP from working in London the past few years and am always anxious to know when/if I should change it to Euro.

Short answers, when you need it or when you've had enough worrying.