Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rjd2

Murray TheDemonic TalkingSkull wrote: »

To be fair, people have been predicting her doom since day one, and so far she has always survived.

She knows she has the majority of the party, the only person who could topple her is probably Javid who might be able to cobble enough support from both leave and remain to get it done, but he seems content atm.

Nody

Tell me how wrote: »

If the point in bold happens, she'll resign or call for a GE while also announcing that she is not running for re-election.

This is May; she's not going to resign but I'd expect her instead to call for a new vote on her deal. It will be very hard for Tories/Labour to go against the will of the people if they vote for the deal she's struck and that's how she can then get it through.

Tell me how

Murray TheDemonic TalkingSkull wrote: »

To be fair, people have been predicting her doom since day one, and so far she has always survived.

What do you think JRM, actually thinks will happen. He spoke today of her having Davis and Johnson and did not utilise them. Does he really think that they are competent enough to go up against Barnier?

Do himself and Farage actually want a No Deal?

UsedToWait

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

JRM is not banned from being Prime Minister because he is a catholic, he's banned because he isn't real, he is the villain from a Dickens novel who escaped into the world.

I can't see him without thinking of Mr Slugworth from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory..



Seriously, I haven't had time today to study the proposed deal..
Where exactly does it sit on the famous 'red lines' diagram?

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It would be far easier for these Tory pantomime toffs to accept full separation for GB from EU rules and leaving NI completely on it's own in the customs union and single market.

In other words it could get even worse for northern unionists...

Yeah. That's where I think we'll be in 2020. To quote an unnamed source: "the Irish are f*****d" - the "Irish" in question being the DUP. Although the other day I postulated that TM would look for a "status quo" withdrawal, the published agreement is way more status quo than I was expecting.

Now either TM's hoping that she'll find a way during the transition phase to re-join the EU, or she'll work sincerely towards a proper Brexit. Given all that's been said today, I don't believe she'll aim to steer the UK back into the EU, so we should expect to hear about NI, the border and the backstop regularly over the next two years, portrayed increasingly as the problem.

There's almost no support in the general population for keeping NI in the UK, so even the most imperial Brexiteers will find it preferable to sacrifice that troublesome colonial outpost as the price of a purer state of isolation.

charlie14

Strazdas wrote: »

Ivan Yates says he reckons she's playing a clever game : hunker down and dare anyone to topple her.....could be that they falter before she does

She would most likely survive a Tory party leadership heave as nobody either wants the job, or of those that want it, nobody would give it too.
A vote of confidence in parliament would be a different ball game though.
All that is just internal UK political problems though.
When it comes to a vote on this agreement I cannot see the Hoc passing it.If that happens then not only will the UK be in serious trouble but we will suffer the ripple effect.

J Mysterio

Rjd2 wrote: »

She knows she has the majority of the party, the only person who could topple her is probably Javid who might be able to cobble enough support from both leave and remain to get it done, but he seems content atm.

Is he not in his first brief in cabinet? I dont see how he commands much support really. He's just a friendly face to hold that post together amid Hostile Environments scandal.

Gael23

Theresa May has two choices: walk the plank now or wait and be pushed out.

LuckyLloyd

Gael23 wrote: »

Theresa May has two choices: walk the plank now or wait and be pushed out.

Or option three:

Call a referendum with the options as:

Deal as negotiated
No Deal

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Is he not in his first brief in cabinet? I dont see how he commands much support really. He's just a friendly face to hold that post together amid Hostile Environments scandal.

He was a very soft remainer so he could get the leavers and the remainers who think May is useless behind him, however he seems content with how things are for him at the moment.

MrMusician18

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Or option three:

Call a referendum with the options as:

Deal as negotiated
No Deal

I don't know if they would put that to a poorly engaged electorate. My guess would be that the question would be the deal or remain

Imreoir2

UsedToWait wrote: »

I can't see him without thinking of Mr Slugworth from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory..



Seriously, I haven't had time today to study the proposed deal..
Where exactly does it sit on the famous 'red lines' diagram?

The deal we have is the Withdrawl Treaty, the chart refers to the Future Relationship deal. The backstop arangement in the WA is a Norway minus type deal, but is not intended to be permenant.

Gael23

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Or option three:

Call a referendum with the options as:

Deal as negotiated
No Deal

And what if the outcome is no deal?

She’s toast along with her pro brexit cabinet members.

ancapailldorcha

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know, but it's a tribal thing there I believe. Guardian v Telegraph and so on.

I honestly think voters in UK don't have much knowledge or interest in politics because of the FPTP system. It's either Red or Blue, and no fantastic counts into the wee hours for the last seat. Then again there is only one seat per constituency there too.

There are pluses and minuses. The multi seat constituency SVT system here leads to a lot of potholes being fixed, as they are all trying to either win your vote or keep it.

Not much incentive to read up and get involved in FPTP areas if safe seats abound and your potholes will remain unfilled!

Fair points.

On the firs though, the Guardian's circulation would be a pale shadow of the Mail's or the Sun's so I wouldn't put them on equal footing.

charlie14

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Or option three:

Call a referendum with the options as:

Deal as negotiated
No Deal

I would not look at either cutting off your legs or blowing out your brains as great options.

Inquitus

Referendum, Single Transferable Vote

1. Remain
2. The Deal
3. Hard Brexit

Never going to happen, but that's the best way to resolve this mess at this point.

Water John

If JRM goes now for a vote on TM and he'll lose that, then when the Deal is defeated on HoC, there is no way of making TM resign.
If the ERG have the patience to wait for the HoC to defeat the Deal, TM may fall but HoC will have let the Remain genie out of the bottle. His dream of a Brexiteer PM to crash out is gone.

J Mysterio

For the first time in this entire process over the last few years I actually see that there is a plan and I have a bit of hope the whole place might not burn down.

I think this is the best deal the UK can get under present circumstances and I also think that they can/ intend to use it as a stepping stone into the transition period where they will believe they can improve their situation in the Future Relationship negotiations. This may take some time and can be extended. At that point UK might:

A) simply decide to continue with the Withdrawal Agreement conditions indefinitely, while chipping away at the EU on occasion, or Jettison NI into the fallback backstop and look to move to a Canada+ style deal and go full on Brexi (begin the amazing trade deals etc.)

Either way, I hope Parliament pass the deal and I think they will. The UK have to move forward now and to frustrate the process will invite anarchy.

Further negotiation, GE, 2nd referendum will all be highly problematic.

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Not much incentive to read up and get involved in FPTP areas if safe seats abound and your potholes will remain unfilled!

Safe seats I think make up almost one third of the HoC.

Inquitus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Either way, I hope Parliament pass the deal and I think they will. The UK have to move forward now and to frustrate the process will invite anarchy.

I'd love it if you were right, as it is the best result for us, but I can't see any way this gets through the Commons, Labour fancy their chances in a GE, the DUP won't vote for it, the ERG won't vote for it. The only way it gets through is if Labour support it in droves and I can't see it happening.

Anthracite

prawnsambo wrote: »

Safe seats I think make up almost one third of the HoC.

I wonder how many rotten boroughs there were back when the reforms of the 1830s had to be brought in?

A Dub in Glasgo

I don't buy the 'grudging respect for May' mood music. She is hapless and she alone chose to ignore at least 48% of the people who voted, she has totally sidelined Scottish voices in any kind of negotiations and essentially has treated Scotland like some sort of colonial place. Her tenure of the Home Office was quite bad as well

She will be judged as one of the worst PMs ever

hill16bhoy

Speculation that Gove will resign tonight. I think his departure would be much more significant than that of anybody who has resigned so far - in reality Raab was a joke and McVey a nobody. Eveybody else who resigned was even less important than that.



https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063128398694961152?s=19

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063129455009415169?s=09

joe40

If the Tories hold onto power and avoid a GE, then labour, lib dems and SNP will eventually and reluctantly back this deal since a no deal scenario cannot be countenanced.
The hard brexiteers and DUP would do it, but surely sense will prevail.
Remainers holding out for no Brexit at this stage though.

ancapailldorcha

Living here, I have mixed feelings. I don't know what the latest is regarding Irish people's right to live, work and vote here is in relation to the withdrawal agreement. I think this will be ok based on this Irish Times link:

ARTICLE 5

Common Travel Area

1. The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (the “Common Travel Area”), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law.

2. The United Kingdom shall ensure that the Common Travel Area and the associated rights and privileges can continue to apply without affecting the obligations of Ireland under Union law, in particular with respect to free movement for Union citizens and their family members, irrespective of their nationality, to, from and within Ireland.

It's a bit of a Catch 22. While Parliament ratifying this agreement solves a lot of problems, it does put the UK in an objectively worse position than the one it occupied before. It's quite a hefty price to pay for possibly the weakest PM in modern history's inability to actually lead his damn party. On the other hand, we end up with chaos. Neither will satisfy anyone but most people would probably find a way to live with the former.

I think this might enhance the odds of a People's Vote happening but those odds still aren't high enough unless the Tory right acquiesces on the basis that hard Brexit be on the ballot.

Water John

Don't see the numbers to push this Deal through. Guardian putting it at 224 For, 415 Against. That's a large deficit to make up. This is not chasing a few votes. Looking for 80 votes to shift.

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I don't buy the 'grudging respect for May' mood music. She is hapless and she alone chose to ignore at least 48% of the people who voted, she has totally sidelined Scottish voices in any kind of negotiations and essentially has treated Scotland like some sort of colonial place. Her tenure of the Home Office was quite bad as well

She will be judged as one of the worst PMs ever

I disagree.

While she campaigned for the job knowing how difficult it would be, she's actually stuck it out.

Worst PM ever? How about her predecessor? Devastating austerity cuts, fomenting divisions in society which ultimately led to Leave winning and then giving them the chance to do so simply because it was easier than standing up to a troublesome MEP and a few backbenchers.

Inquitus

Water John wrote: »

Don't see the numbers to push this Deal through. Guardian putting it at 224 For, 415 Against. That's a large deficit to make up. This is not chasing a few votes. Looking for 80 votes to shift.

Agreed it is done and dusted, unless labour decide to support it tis dead in the water, and I can't see that happening, they want this to be voted down and a GE coming about.

Water John

Quite clear from the EU that Remaining is very much open.

keith_sixteen

Water John wrote: »

Don't see the numbers to push this Deal through. Guardian putting it at 224 For, 415 Against. That's a large deficit to make up. This is not chasing a few votes. Looking for 80 votes to shift.

The same Guardian that called a comfortable victory for Hillary.

Entirely different things I know. However, I think this deal will get through. There is no alternative. The chips are down and time for people to show their hands. An awful lot of them have been bluffing and the reality kicks in now.