Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Inquitus

keith_sixteen wrote: »

The same Guardian that called a comfortable victory for Hillary.

Entirely different things I know. However, I think this deal will get through. There is no alternative. The chips are down and time for people to show their hands. An awful lot of them have been bluffing and the reality kicks in now.

You credit all of them with the ability to put the country before personal and party interests, sadly that is not the case and this will never pass the Commons.

keith_sixteen

Inquitus wrote: »

You credit all of them with the ability to put the country before personal and party interests, sadly that is not the case and this will never pass the Commons.

Maybe you are right, but it will be a lot closer than people think.

Water John

Any opposition MP can vote this Deal down with a clear conscience since, that is their default natural position, to oppose Govn't. Then the DUP is gone so the Govn't is in a minority.

An Ciarraioch

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Speculation that Gove will resign tonight. I think his departure would be much more significant than that of anybody who has resigned so far - in reality Raab was a joke and McVey a nobody. Eveybody else who resigned was even less important than that.



https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063128398694961152?s=19

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063129455009415169?s=09

Laura Kuenssberg now saying that he's gone home, so nothing happening tonight.

Sterling now nudging 89p, reportedly the biggest one-day fall in 18 months.

Spanish Eyes

Water John wrote: »

Quite clear from the EU that Remaining is very much open.

T May did say this earlier whether by accident or design I don't know. Either this agreement, hard brexit, or NO BREXIT. Hmm.

I am not sure if it is within her gift to decide though. But anyway does anyone know at this stage?

Let's say there is a vote of confidence and she wins. No further challenge allowed for 12 months at least. Tick.

Let's say the Agreement is voted down in the Commons AFTER she has survived the VOC. Tick

If the ECJ rules in favour of unilateral revocation of A50, (ruling due December) could she hang on for that decision and just say Feck It, I'm going to revoke that article and we are staying! 27 members do not have a say.

Would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad and unnecessary. I think she would have to resign if the vote is lost in Commons though.

I am sure others will know more about the timetables for VOC and the Agreement Vote. And how off the wall my thinking is perhaps too! I don't mind, it is all an education to me.

I'm getting sucked into this more and more, but it is fascinating. We are living through a very important piece of history. I console myself with that!

Dont be at yourself

If there's a Tory leadership challenge, which two factions will go into the run-off? An ERG-backed hard brexiteer seems likely to me, but will the other candidate be pushing May's deal, a people's vote, or to remain? And which would win the vote of the party membership?

Water John

Fixed term Parliament has sort of messed up our usual signals. TM can now survive a defeat of this Deal. That may seem strange. On other issues will the DUP support them in other votes in the HoC? In essence TM is now leading a minority Govn't.

An Ciarraioch

God Save The Queen drowned out by boos in Lansdowne Road - a major contrast with Croker in 2007.

Thargor

breatheme wrote: »

It seems like it.

Boris could've been PM but then he didn't because... uh, "Gove didn't want to be friends anymore " (Me, back then: :rolleyes: )

He was the obvious candidate. He was the major player in the Leave Campaign.

Get your tinfoil hat on, cause it's conspiracy theory time (you may have heard this before):

Boris is actually a Remainer at heart. (As evidenced by his Telegraph article, supporting Remain.) However, He's always wanted to take the party from Cameron's hands. During the run-off to the Brexit Referendum, he actually chose to support Leave to put himself in opposition to Cameron. He'd be the champion of the EUsceptics of his party. But then he fully expected Leave to lose. (As evidenced by his ghastly speech aftwerads.) However, he'd have the Leaver's lifelong support. That would have enabled him to take over Cameron at a later Leadership Contest, however, once PM, he could comfortably say: "We already had a referendum. It has been decided. I will not press the matter further." And leave it at that.

But it all backfired.

He doesn't want to be the PM to carry the UK through Brexit and if he doesn't, who does?

What was that speech out of interest?

Nody

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

If there's a Tory leadership challenge, which two factions will go into the run-off? An ERG-backed hard brexiteer seems likely to me, but will the other candidate be pushing May's deal, a people's vote, or to remain? And which would win the vote of the party membership?

Honestly not sure an ERG backed candidate would make it; with the internal split and added fact they are likely to be blamed for the situation Tory's find themselves in I could see a non ERG softer Brexiteer winning instead.

Tell me how

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

If there's a Tory leadership challenge, which two factions will go into the run-off? An ERG-backed hard brexiteer seems likely to me, but will the other candidate be pushing May's deal, a people's vote, or to remain? And which would win the vote of the party membership?

Looking at the contenders, Raab is best placed at 9/2. That says it all. He was a puppet for the last 6 months with Olly Robbins and Theresa May apparently actually being the lead negotiators irrespective of the role he held.

Think it could fall in to Johnson's lap simply because he is the only one to be foolish enough to suggest the gloves are off and this will be easy while the rest will be somewhat more pragmatic in saying what can be delivered.

Fr Tod Umptious

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

God Save The Queen drowned out by boos in Lansdowne Road - a major contrast with Croker in 2007.

That's because a sizable number of Irish rugby fans regard it as their anthem.

Tell me how

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

That's because a sizable number of Irish rugby fans regard it as their anthem.

Very different context.
James McClean is responsible for the motivations of a large number of those boos I suspect given the recent Poppy headlines.

LeinsterDub

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

That's because a sizable number of Irish rugby fans regard it as their anthem.

Nonsense.

joe40

The only thing to do now I think is another straightforward forward in or out vote. It would be democratic since the WA is now known so voters are better informed.
A no vote means no brexit, a yes vote means brexit with this WA.
If the vote is still to leave then labour and lib dems would vote for this deal, even if reluctantly, since it is the only one available and no deal is a disaster.
Democracy at work and everyone saves face.
But probably won't happen.

Donald Trump

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

That's because a sizable number of Irish rugby fans regard it as their anthem.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nonsense.

To be fair, rugby is a 32-county sport, so a chunk probably would. And legitimately so



Still, that would be a minority and the reason it wouldn't be booed at a rugby match is probably just out of manners and decency vs the, probably small but vocal, proportion of soccerball larger louts at a soccerball match

Get Real

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

God Save The Queen drowned out by boos in Lansdowne Road - a major contrast with Croker in 2007.

Is it just me, or has Brexit slightly, slightly, opened an inner "nationalist" akin to that of the 90s? Not violent, or by any means particularly passionate. But in that it's more common for the old jokes/remarks of the past to be uttered.

I think it's Irish people's disillusionment with regards to Brexit, the disbelief at the chaos it has caused.

It also allowed a full view of how far some in London are from understanding Northern Ireland and the Republic.

So has it led to a slight "ah jaysus, ye're taking the p1ss" at this point, and people have lost a bit of respect for the UK?

I think there's been a step back in relations from when the Queen visited in 2011 for instance. I could be wrong though.

Cork Boy 53

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

God Save The Queen drowned out by boos in Lansdowne Road - a major contrast with Croker in 2007.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

That's because a sizable number of Irish rugby fans regard it as their anthem.

Tell me how wrote: »

Very different context.
James McClean is responsible for the motivations of a large number of those boos I suspect given the recent Poppy headlines.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Nonsense.

Donald Trump wrote: »

To be fair, rugby is a 32-county sport, so a chunk probably would. And legitimately so



Still, that would be a minority and the reason it wouldn't be booed at a rugby match is probably just out of manners and decency vs the, probably small but vocal, proportion of soccerball larger louts at a soccerball match

Have you guys got lost? This is the Brexit discussion thread.

Charles Babbage

England using GSTQ is one thing, having it used by an Irish team is another.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

God Save The Queen drowned out by boos in Lansdowne Road - a major contrast with Croker in 2007.

Brexit a factor undoubtedly. The thing is positively toxic.

golfball37

The Irish have been sneering at the decision of the British people since the result came in. The glee being extolled here over Britain’s travails is quite childish. If Britain suffers so will we.

Tell me how

golfball37 wrote: »

The Irish have been sneering at the decision of the British people since the result came in. The glee being extolled here over Britain’s travails is quite childish. If Britain suffers so will we.

You are confusing astonishment with glee.

I think most people (certainly those posting on this thread) are aware of the impact. A no deal Brexit could impact Ireland proportionally greater than it will the UK.

Laughing at the absurdity of Davis, Johnson et al is not the same as being happy that it is happening to them.

Shelga

golfball37 wrote: »

The Irish have been sneering at the decision of the British people since the result came in. The glee being extolled here over Britain’s travails is quite childish. If Britain suffers so will we.

I’m not gleeful, I think it is truly sad what an absolute mess the UK is in right now. What people react poorly to is Brexiters digging their heels in until the end, and refusing to admit they were wrong. There is nothing wrong with changing your mind, when you see the reality of the situation.

The fact that not enough of them seem to be doing this is what is obviously going to have the likes of us in Ireland, and most of the rest of Europe, completely fed up of them and just want them gone.

Donald Trump

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Have you guys got lost? This is the Brexit discussion thread.

Brexit has all sorts of implications for the island of Ireland. Sport is not immune. 26/6 or 32-county sports both included. Particularly given the issue of the Northern Ireland border and the possibility of old tribalism being stoked up and strengthened. As such, the actions of people at a simple soccer match might be a portent of things to come

A Dub in Glasgo

golfball37 wrote: »

The Irish have been sneering at the decision of the British people since the result came in. The glee being extolled here over Britain’s travails is quite childish. If Britain suffers so will we.

Plenty of British people over here in the UK have been sneering at the decision

Show us some of the glee on here?

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1063137959929626624

Would be amazing after all today's grandstanding that Mogg etc did not have the 48 letters.

Shelga

David Davis on Sky News just said “I want free trade to be included in the deal”- wtf, this is a withdrawal agreement, not a trade deal.

How is he so utterly stupid. How was he the actual Brexit Secretary. How has the UK let itself fall completely apart like this.

listermint

golfball37 wrote: »

The Irish have been sneering at the decision of the British people since the result came in. The glee being extolled here over Britain’s travails is quite childish. If Britain suffers so will we.

Your reading a different thread clearly.

And your post came across as childish because of it

sink

I think the ERG have decided to hold their fire because they believe that TM will presently survive a vote of no confidence. A better opportunity for them will come when the proposed deal is inevitably voted down in the commons. They are probably coordinating in private and will send their letters all in at once after the vote.

Remember at this stage their goal is no deal. They have plenty of time left to engineer that outcome and are currently just moving into position before the real checkmate opportunity comes.

Harry Palmr

Hard to recall now but once the Conservative Party was the pragmatic party.