Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

seamus

Though the process is that new potential leaders will not be selected until after the confidence vote. The likes of JRM can mumble about leadership until she's voted out, and then true to form walk away and say, "Nothing to do with me".

I have a feeling though that support for May - or at least support for the softest of soft Brexits, if not a new referendum - is much higher in the Tories than it appears. Thus far, all of the noise has been coming from the same 4/5 lunatics; 48 letters represents just 15% of the party's power. And it has taken more than 24 hours to get them. The electorate have lost their appetite for this farce, and politicians only care about what they need to do to keep their seat.

So IMO, there's the same potential for massive embarrassment for Johnson and Moggs here as there is for May. If she was to secure 60% in a confidence vote, then they end up looking like nothing more than out-of-touch, loudmouth malcontents.

flatty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Rees-Mogg is not driven by any romantic nonsense. There's very little doubt that he's driven by greed. Let's not forget that coincident with the notion of leaving the EU was the EU's decision to implement a tax avoidance directive. Which directive will come into force next year or at the latest, the following year. Right in the middle of the transition period. So JRM and his ilk have been pushing a no-deal brexit as hard as they can because that's the only scenario where the UK can avoid the avoidance directive.

Not just greed, though that is certainly a feature. The man is a zealot, and zealots while rarely rational, are often highly convincing as they radiate such certainty that it is infectious if not countered with fact.

Professor Moriarty

Apparently Gove is staying. Not sure that will be of much comfort to May at this stage.

Peregrinus

mrbrianj wrote: »

Can anybody confirm, Tory party rules are that a vote of no confidence in their own leader cant be followed by another (Tory) no confidence vote for 1 year?

If she's challenged beats the challenge, the challenge mechanism cannot be invoked for another 12 months.

Of course, senior party figures can tell her that her position is untenable, ministers can refuse to serve under her, etc. So there are ways of shafting her. But this particular mechanism isn't available until the 12 months have passed.

Hurrache

Inquitus wrote: »

Will the no confidence vote be today? Given MP's have been recalled from their constituencies? or will it be next week?

I believe that if there's a vote of no confidence, and she wins, they can't call another for a year. So if they were to call it now, without being sure what may happen, and she wins, the whole sorry situation is just as it was.

flatty

seamus wrote: »

Though the process is that new potential leaders will not be selected until after the confidence vote. The likes of JRM can mumble about leadership until she's voted out, and then true to form walk away and say, "Nothing to do with me".

I have a feeling though that support for May - or at least support for the softest of soft Brexits, if not a new referendum - is much higher in the Tories than it appears. Thus far, all of the noise has been coming from the same 4/5 lunatics; 48 letters represents just 15% of the party's power. And it has taken more than 24 hours to get them. The electorate have lost their appetite for this farce, and politicians only care about what they need to do to keep their seat.

So IMO, there's the same potential for massive embarrassment for Johnson and Moggs here as there is for May. If she was to secure 60% in a confidence vote, then they end up looking like nothing more than out-of-touch, loudmouth malcontents.

I think you may be correct. This is what I suspect too, but the level of ignorance of all facets of brexit, the EU, Ireland, and modern life in general amongst the politicians driving this, and the level of acquiescence amongst the remainder bar an outstanding few, has left me thinking that anything could happen.

EdgeCase

I'm a bit surprised at this scaremongering article in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/ireland-to-remain-open-door-to-uk-for-eu-citizens-post-brexit

the Guardian wrote:

Ireland will remain an open door to the UK for EU citizens after Brexit with no mandatory passport checks on those who travel to Britain via Dublin and Belfast, it has been confirmed.

Considering that we always operated a totally independent visa and work permit regime for non-EU nationals and somehow that hasn't caused any major issues, I can't see how anything is likely to change.

Not only that but if you were to start working in the UK as an EU national, you would be picked up rather quickly by the system.

Also the article seems to imply there's only one point of entry / exit from the republic: Dublin.

Ireland also has passport checks on entry from everywhere except the UK as it's not on Schengen.

ilovesmybrick

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Apparently Gove is staying. Not sure that will be of much comfort to May at this stage.

What a spineless git. I think his perspective is fundamentally wrong, but if its such a fundamental political belief at least stand by it.

lawred2

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised at this scaremongering article in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/ireland-to-remain-open-door-to-uk-for-eu-citizens-post-brexit



Considering that we always operated a totally independent visa and work permit regime for non-EU nationals and somehow that hasn't caused any major issues, I can't see how anything is likely to change.

Not only that but if you were to start working in the UK as an EU national, you would be picked up rather quickly by the system.

Also the article seems to imply there's only one point of entry / exit from the republic: Dublin.

Ireland also has passport checks on entry from everywhere except the UK as it's not on Schengen.

did someone defect from the Telegraph to the Guardian recently?

Zubeneschamali

Anthracite wrote: »

Well it's not irrelevant if the UK still had colonies into the 1960s unless you are suggesting that being the number one producer of pig iron determines whether you are an empire or not.

I still reckon your head of state being an Emperor is a bit of a giveaway.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Will the no confidence vote be today? Given MP's have been recalled from their constituencies? or will it be next week?

Tuesday apparently

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1063376793103728641

ilovesmybrick

Bobby McDonagh, former ambassador to Britain, has an excellent opinion piece in the Times today that's worth a read on how some of this madness came to pass.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-and-the-march-of-folly-1.3699010

hill16bhoy

Water John wrote: »

Charlie Haughey survived by 1 vote. I think in the UK if it is a significant number you're generally gone, about one third I'd say.

Thatcher had the support of a significant majority of Tory MPs in 1990 when she was challenged for the leadership and went.

But the "rules" of the game have changed drastically since then.

One vote would certainly be a sufficient majority for May to continue.

I mean Jeremy Corbyn has been Labour leader for over three years now while never having the support of more than about 15-20% of his MPs.

And the reality is that everybody is too chicken **** to actually want the job of Tory leader now.

ancapailldorcha

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

What a spineless git. I think his perspective is fundamentally wrong, but if its such a fundamental political belief at least stand by it.

Mod: Dial back the name calling please.

Enzokk

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised at this scaremongering article in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/ireland-to-remain-open-door-to-uk-for-eu-citizens-post-brexit



Considering that we always operated a totally independent visa and work permit regime for non-EU nationals and somehow that hasn't caused any major issues, I can't see how anything is likely to change.

Not only that but if you were to start working in the UK as an EU national, you would be picked up rather quickly by the system.

Also the article seems to imply there's only one point of entry / exit from the republic: Dublin.

Ireland also has passport checks on entry from everywhere except the UK as it's not on Schengen.

But its not wrong that EU citizens will be able to travel to the UK after Brexit and enter without seeing a stamp or glance at their passport by immigration officials. Finding work is another matter though, but there is an open backdoor to the UK from Ireland. We have known this from the start.

seamus

Inquitus wrote: »

Tuesday apparently

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status...

"the threshold of 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be passed today."

Why not already? Why not first thing yesterday morning? Why not 3 weeks ago?

The fact that there weren't 48 letters already packaged in a neat bundle and ready to hand over at short notice really says to me that there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm behind this heave as the Brexiteers want people to believe.

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

"the threshold of 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be passed today."

Why not already? Why not first thing yesterday morning? Why not 3 weeks ago?

The fact that there weren't 48 letters already packaged in a neat bundle and ready to hand over at short notice really says to me that there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm behind this heave as the Brexiteers want people to believe.

probably have to be hand delivered and handled with white gloves or some archaic shoite like that...

daheff

prawnsambo wrote: »

but you'd have to think people in Europe are exasperated and fatigued with the whole sorry mess at this stage. The possibility of having to enter new negotiations sometime early next year would be slim to none.

I was watching one of the BBC programs last night and they had an Austrian minister on the show. She said that there won't be more negotiations on the EU side because of upcoming elections in Europe. Methinks UK are now stuck between a rock and a hard place and swallowing their pride. Deal or no deal or rerun the referendum.

barry181091

I'm confused. All of the commentary that I see says there will be a no confidence motion but that she is going to win this. Thus, why is the no confidence so bad if its really a forgone conclusion that she will succeed in it?

Water John

the Austrian Minister would have been saying that in the context of UK having a rerun of negotiations, a la Gove. Not ever going to happen. However if the Lb idea of staying in the CU and close to the SM were UK's new position then such an option would be viewed positively.

ilovesmybrick

daheff wrote:

I was watching one of the BBC programs last night and they had an Austrian minister on the show. She said that there won't be more negotiations on the EU side because of upcoming elections in Europe. Methinks UK are now stuck between a rock and a hard place and swallowing their pride. Deal or no deal or rerun the referendum.

Oh the Austrian government was pissed off that this was going to hang over their presidency two years ago. I'm actually at a conference at the moment and there is quite a bit of antipathy towards the state of affairs in the UK as its disrupting research investment. Its stunning that all the UK reps are starting their talks with apologies. A lot of the mood in Vienna the past few days was surprise that the UK wasn't gone yet. There is almost no air time given to Brexit here.

EdgeCase

Enzokk wrote: »

But its not wrong that EU citizens will be able to travel to the UK after Brexit and enter without seeing a stamp or glance at their passport by immigration officials. Finding work is another matter though, but there is an open backdoor to the UK from Ireland. We have known this from the start.

I can't see the UK not offering a reciprocal visa waiver to the EU where you'll be able to enter for 90 days anyway. If they don't it's going to be absolutely chaotic for UK holidaymakers having to apply for a visa to go to Malaga.

So, I really can't see the NI border making any great difference.

EU nationals will be able to enter the UK legally and then if they illegally stay on, they'll just have to be picked up by the tax / welfare system and so on.

The same is likely to apply the otherway around where UK nationals will be picked up if they fail to register after 90 days in the EU (other than Ireland).

seamus

EdgeCase wrote: »

I can't see the UK not offering a reciprocal visa waiver to the EU where you'll be able to enter for 90 days anyway. If they don't it's going to be absolutely chaotic for UK holidaymakers having to apply for a visa to go to Malaga.

Not to mention the volume of UK residents who own property in Spain & Portugal. IIRC, property laws over there are a bit insane, people could find themselves getting a massive shock as foreign non-EU property owners.
A super-quick google suggests that their annual tax liability for the property will increase from 20% to 24% overnight. God knows what else is in store.

Seth Brundle

seamus wrote: »

"the threshold of 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be passed today."

Why not already? Why not first thing yesterday morning? Why not 3 weeks ago?

The fact that there weren't 48 letters already packaged in a neat bundle and ready to hand over at short notice really says to me that there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm behind this heave as the Brexiteers want people to believe.

Could they be holding off until the parliament vote on Brexit?
If you were an MP against her draft agreement, would you want to be in power for it now (or withdraw it) or would you wait for a mandate to change it based on a parliamentary rejection of it?

Water John

At least I think the focussed talk over the last 2 days have crystallised for most, except the rabid Brexiteers that Crash out Brexit is a non runner, to be avoided at all costs.

Patser

barry181091 wrote: »

I'm confused. All of the commentary that I see says there will be a no confidence motion but that she is going to win this. Thus, why is the no confidence so bad if its really a forgone conclusion that she will succeed in it?

Because:

It suits the ERG and hardcore brexiters to cause as much chaos as possible, so as to delay any agreement in the hope of a crash out no deal

So you can guarantee an opponent of some sort will be put up against may to cause more delays, and also so that you now have Teresa May distracted in fighting to keep her position as PM, while also trying to fight for the agreement.

And also over the next few weeks, you never nó what other landmine May might step on while details of brexit deal are poured over.


So in short, chaos suits ERG and if you're not in you can't win.

bur

Got a chill down my spine reading about this backdoor UK stuff. Frightening to think some of the type of people that will be funnelling through here to get to the UK illegally, and the people fleeing the UK. There is always some spillage too.

Nice that the Irish government is taking such a hands off approach all the same.

ArmaniJeanss

Patser wrote: »

Because:

It suits the ERG and hardcore brexiters to cause as much chaos as possible, so as to delay any agreement in the hope of a crash out no deal

So you can guarantee an opponent of some sort will be put up against may to cause more delays, and also so that you now have Teresa May distracted in fighting to keep her position as PM, while also trying to fight for the agreement.

There is no 'opponent' for May.
Its a straight May/notMay vote for the MPs.
They changed the methodology about 10 years ago just in case you are remembering previous such contests.

joe40

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm a bit surprised at this scaremongering article in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/ireland-to-remain-open-door-to-uk-for-eu-citizens-post-brexit



Considering that we always operated a totally independent visa and work permit regime for non-EU nationals and somehow that hasn't caused any major issues, I can't see how anything is likely to change.

Not only that but if you were to start working in the UK as an EU national, you would be picked up rather quickly by the system.

Also the article seems to imply there's only one point of entry / exit from the republic: Dublin.

Ireland also has passport checks on entry from everywhere except the UK as it's not on Schengen.

That's not scaremongering at all. During the Brexit campaign anytime Farage was questioned about the Irish border(Never by British media) his answer was that the common travel area has been in place for a long time, so there would be no impact. Everything would be just hunky dory, no disruption - stop making problems.

It would be a bit rich now for them to complain about a common travel area. Kinda late to realise that Ireland is in the EU so common travel will be from EU via Ireland also.

Patser

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

There is no 'opponent' for May.
Its a straight May/notMay vote for the MPs.
They changed the methodology about 10 years ago just in case you are remembering previous such contests.

Oh ok, my misreading. So it is just a quick Yes No on May, with little time for soap boxing, a chance for May to gain immunity for a year and a real chance the ERG will be shown as toothless after all their bluster.....

It just gives them 1 weekend in the limelight and then neuters them. That's madness to go nuclear when so weak, unless they really, really believe there's a genuine chance against May.

Strange