Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

charlie14

prawnsambo wrote: »

There would have to be a credible alternative for DUP voters. The UUP would possibly be that alternative, but they've been in the doldrums for a long time. It would be their chance if they have the courage to take it. Having watched what they're pleased to call the opposition across the water at work, I'm starting to think that political courage is an out of date concept.

You would imagine that for unionists, especially those that voted Remain, the UUP would be a credible alternative to the DUP but I am of the opinion that perhaps there is too much being read into that.
UUP backed Remain yet in the subsequent GE DUP virtually wiped them out. This morning on RTE a representative of 11,500 NI farmers, (and with this being NI, safe to assume the vast majority are unionist), was in favour of this deal, yet kept running around the house when asked his opinion on the DUP`s role with "we do not get involved in politics".

Sammy Wilson was on Prime Time last night attempting to lay all the blame on the problems the UK have with this deal on RoI and the EU sticking it to the UK on false claims over the possibility of a hard border.
The DUP at times may not look to be the sharpest knives in the drawer, but when it comes to their electorate they have that well gauged. Their were some who backed the UUP position on Remain which in an ordinary relatively sane society would indicate the possibility of a more open minded section of unionist supporters, but I`m very much afraid when it comes to the ramping up the rhetoric of this being all the RoI`s fault for just wanting to stick it to "the glorious union" and get a UI by way of the back door their will be very few unionists voting UUP.

charlie14

Patser wrote: »

Oh ok, my misreading. So it is just a quick Yes No on May, with little time for soap boxing, a chance for May to gain immunity for a year and a real chance the ERG will be shown as toothless after all their bluster.....

It just gives them 1 weekend in the limelight and then neuters them. That's madness to go nuclear when so weak, unless they really, really believe there's a genuine chance against May.

Strange

ERG have been backed into a corner. With all their bluster over the past few weeks about how many signed letters they had to force a leadership contest, to have any shred of credibility they had no other option.
Not that by doing so they have gained any, when the head honcho in the ERG upon calling for the letters to be submitted live on TV ruled himself out of contesting.

charlie14

charlie14 wrote: »

You would imagine that for unionists, especially those that voted Remain, the UUP would be a credible alternative to the DUP but I am of the opinion that perhaps there is too much being read into that.
UUP backed Remain yet in the subsequent GE DUP virtually wiped them out. This morning on RTE a representative of 11,500 NI farmers, (and with this being NI, safe to assume the vast majority are unionist), was in favour of this deal, yet kept running around the house when asked his opinion on the DUP`s role with "we do not get involved in politics".

It has to be remembered that while NI did vote to remain overall it was less than 56% remain. I have no idea how that splits between the 2 "communities".

Rjd2

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

What a spineless git. I think his perspective is fundamentally wrong, but if its such a fundamental political belief at least stand by it.

https://twitter.com/WestminsterWAG/status/1063369013634441216

Gove's wife believes May would win a no confidence vote so Michael obviously content to bide his time right now. I think May has been clever in that she has neutered some of the Brexiters in giving them positions that would they struggle with such as Raab and Davis. Gove was shrewd to turn down that position Yesterday, he has a relatively easy crowd pleasing role at the moment, best bide his time for now and see how the land lies in a few weeks.

kowtow

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Not at all. Look at the copy of the agreement on the EU site

Point 5 reads



Everything has not been agreed, therefore nothing has been agreed.

It's a very important point that.

It irks me every time I hear people characterizing the UK "going back on their word" as if they had broken an agreement. They have not and did not at any point, it's not a promise, but a negotiating position (albeit an agreed one pro tem) and whilst it might be an enormous irritation to their interlocutor it is subject to contract. If the good faith of a party could be publicly impugned because they had stepped away from a negotiation position which was explicitly conditional then there would hardly be any commercial negotiations at all.

The concern in the UK is that the EU (or ourselves) want, in an ideal world, the backstop to be permanent and become the pattern for trade between the UK and the EU.

If that's the case then it isn't a backstop at all, and to refer to it as such is disingenuous.

The political reality is that, unsurprisingly, both sides are taking the humpty dumpty approach to words which can - at a push - be interpreted two ways.

Zubeneschamali

kowtow wrote: »

It irks me every time I hear people characterizing the UK "going back on their word" as if they had broken an agreement.

Indeed, they only tried to go back on their word. Since they failed miserably, and ended up tying the whole UK into the backstop instead of just NI, no harm done except to their reputation in future negotiations.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

It has to be remembered that while NI did vote to remain overall it was less than 56% remain. I have no idea how that splits between the 2 "communities".

Like this:

It seems 85% of Catholics voted Remain, compared to only 40% of Protestants.

The differences are even starker when one considers how the respondents described their own ideological position and identity. Of those who identified as nationalists, 88% voted Remain, compared to only 34% of those who described themselves as unionists. And 87% of “Irish” respondents voted Remain compared to only 37% of “British” respondents.

Therein lies the DUP's justification for their hard-line approach. They are representing their constituents' vote, not NI as a whole. The "Irish"/republican/nationalist voters have Sinn Féin to do that for them ... or not.

I would wonder if it might be Sinn Féin that ultimately pays a higher price for a hard Brexit, especially if the draft agreement is defeated only by the participation of the DUP. Fianna Fáil-SDLP candidates prepared to mutter allegiance to the Crown just might be seen to have an advantage of abstentionist SF MPs, especially if there's no regional government in Stormont.

A Dub in Glasgo

kowtow wrote: »

It irks me every time I hear people characterizing the UK "going back on their word" as if they had broken an agreement. They have not and did not at any point, it's not a promise, but a negotiating position (albeit an agreed one pro tem) and whilst it might be an enormous irritation to their interlocutor it is subject to contract. If the good faith of a party could be publicly impugned because they had stepped away from a negotiation position which was explicitly conditional then there would hardly be any commercial negotiations at all.

You are seeing the Withdrawal Agreement through the 'commercial negotiation' lens when it is plainly obvious it is not. The Tories have done the same

The Tories have been untrustworthy throughout most of the process

badtoro

charlie14 wrote: »

yet kept running around the house when asked his opinion on the DUP`s role with "we do not get involved in politics".

One would be foolish to criticise politicians when representing a lobby dependent on politicians. By all means go after policy, but it's a double edged sword to go after specific politicians personally or individual parties. Your members may think the world of them, and, or you may need that individual or party in the future. Play the long game.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Like this:

Therein lies the DUP's justification for their hard-line approach. They are representing their constituents' vote, not NI as a whole. The "Irish"/republican/nationalist voters have Sinn F to do that for them ... or not.

I would wonder if it might be Sinn F that ultimately pays a higher price for a hard Brexit, especially if the draft agreement is defeated only by the participation of the DUP. Fianna F-SDLP candidates prepared to mutter allegiance to the Crown just might be seen to have an advantage of abstentionist SF MPs, especially if there's no regional government in Stormont.

Based on those numbers the Nationalist turnout must have been pretty abysmal?

An Ciarraioch

Exports to GB almost exactly 10% for year-to-date, biggest increases for Belgium, Netherlands and US:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsseptember2018/

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

Like this:

Therein lies the DUP's justification for their hard-line approach. They are representing their constituents' vote, not NI as a whole. The "Irish"/republican/nationalist voters have Sinn F to do that for them ... or not.

I would wonder if it might be Sinn F that ultimately pays a higher price for a hard Brexit, especially if the draft agreement is defeated only by the participation of the DUP. Fianna F-SDLP candidates prepared to mutter allegiance to the Crown just might be seen to have an advantage of abstentionist SF MPs, especially if there's no regional government in Stormont.

Based on those numbers the Nationalist turnout must have been pretty abysmal?

Apart from West Belfast and Foyle, virtually identical to the unionist turnout:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#Northern_Ireland

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Exports to GB almost exactly 10% for year-to-date, biggest increases for Belgium, Netherlands and US:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsseptember2018/

Top 10 gains:
Belgium +38%, €3785m
US +15%, €3781m
Netherlands +30%, €1310m
Japan +61%, €1019m
Italy +32% €618m
Switzerland +11%, €481m
Canada +33% €264m
Greece +100%, €231m
Czechia +46%, €132m
Brazil +104%, €132m

Top 5 losses:
China -10%, -€397m
UK (bar NI) -5%, -€540m
Poland -20%, -€174m
Saudi Arabia, -23%, -€174m
Germany -1.5%, -€110m

Percentage of UK exports as a total EU exports dropped from 23% to 20% (that's a good thing).

demfad

kowtow wrote: »

It irks me every time I hear people characterizing the UK "going back on their word" as if they had broken an agreement. They have not and did not at any point, it's not a promise, but a negotiating position (albeit an agreed one pro tem) and whilst it might be an enormous irritation to their interlocutor it is subject to contract. If the good faith of a party could be publicly impugned because they had stepped away from a negotiation position which was explicitly conditional then there would hardly be any commercial negotiations at all.

The nothing agreed until everything is agreed was a reference to the fact that all parts of the withdrawal agreement had to be agreed before the entirety could be signed off: Divorce Bill, Citizens Rights, Ireland.

There is an understanding that negotiators have the power to authoritively negotiate for their side and when they agree to something it is parked and not revisited until everything agreed and then passed to the politicians.

Furthermore the Joint Declaration went further and added a political promise by the prime minister that there would be a backstop. If you remember this was to seal agreement on Strand 1 and allow negotiations to move to Strand 2.
What the UK stating this by the Joint Declaration was that we acknowledge that the phase 1 negotiations was to copper fasten their commitment to to this and acknowledge that the entire process depended on this agreement.
May even had to send a letter acknowledging that the backstop was solid after Fox (I think) shot hsi mouth off.

For the British to subsequently come back and claim that this was just part of the negotiation which could be removed and reworked as any other is disingenuos.



Don't agree and that is revisionism on the British part.

demfad

CelticRambler wrote: »

Like this:

Therein lies the DUP's justification for their hard-line approach. They are representing their constituents' vote, not NI as a whole. The "Irish"/republican/nationalist voters have Sinn Féin to do that for them ... or not.

I would wonder if it might be Sinn Féin that ultimately pays a higher price for a hard Brexit, especially if the draft agreement is defeated only by the participation of the DUP. Fianna Fáil-SDLP candidates prepared to mutter allegiance to the Crown just might be seen to have an advantage of abstentionist SF MPs, especially if there's no regional government in Stormont.

I have a feeling that the figures are vastly different now. At the Ulsters farmers Union an interviewee guessed that there had been slightly more Leave voters but now: nearly all remain.

EdgeCase

I know dealing with Irish SMEs in various sectors, there has been an absolutely huge effort, backed by government agencies, to diversify export markets over the last couple of years. It's one of the biggest pushes I have ever seen and it is probably having a significant impact. Ireland's not all that big and we've a proven ability to really move fast when we need to.

There will be some impacts of Brexit here, but I don't think they're as dire as some commentators (particularly in the UK media, where they seem to think that 99.999% of Irish exports go to the UK via our one clapped out ferry) are predicting.

Also beware of the forecasts for agriculture, they're not as negative as people might think. We export a lot of food to the UK, but Irish agriculture largely produces generic, unbranded meat, milk and so on. That can find markets and there's been huge efforts put into getting Irish beef, lamb and dairy onto shelves elsewhere as a high-value added product with significant branding and ability to command a premium that it doesn't necessarily have in the UK.

Bear in mind that Irish food and drink products in Britain are seen as 'another quasi-British region' and they tend to see them as nothing special. That is not the case in continental Europe where in some markets, Belgium for example, Irish meats are seen as a premium product and command a significantly higher price. Also, Irish butter under the Kerrygold brand has wowed US consumers and become a bit of a cult product in a way that it would never do in Britain as it's quite comparable to many English regions.

The overall value of primary production agriculture to GDP here is also quite tiny. We tend to overestimate it because we've a tradition of seeing ourselves as an agricultural country but also because it has a disproportionate impact on jobs in rural areas, but it's also a relatively easy sector to find new markets for as it's producing commodities and it's highly coordinated.

Also, don't forget that the UK consumers are fairly fussy and also price insensitive, so 10-15% price hikes due to slips in value of Sterling and tariffs will impact sales less than we think. The bigger impact in Britain will be at the lower ends of the market where you will see substitution of already cheap products for even cheaper ones and possibly even a descent into genuine food poverty due to a fall in purchasing power coupled with austerity that has been going on since the Tories first got in.

The people most impacted by Brexit in the UK aren't those who shop in Waitrose. They're the people who struggle to shop in Lidl and Aldi and those are generally not the consumers buying Irish exports.

That's the sad reality of it. The consequences of this for some of the poorest groups in the UK are likely going to be a fairly dramatic fall in already very uncomfortably low living standards. Brexit is basically a well-healed English nationalist's empire fantasy sold to the plebs by spinning fear and whipping up xenophobia. They have been sold a massive lie and I have a sense that when they wake up to that, we'll see something akin to the Poll Tax riots.

Also, naturally, the UK is quite centrist and even a bit centre left. They normally take huge pride in achievements of social-democracy like the NHS, access to education and so on. Somehow all of that has been pushed aside by this which is why I think you're going to see a hard snap back when economic realities start to kick in.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

It has to be remembered that while NI did vote to remain overall it was less than 56% remain. I have no idea how that splits between the 2 "communities".

Always impossible to know how people actually vote on the day, but I feel a good indicator of how the "2 communities" voted on Brexit is a poll carried out shortly before the vote by Ipsos-MORI on behalf of Queen`s University Belfast in face to face interviews with 4,000 participants.

Those that identified themselves as nationalist, 88% said they intended voting Remain.
Those that identified themselves as unionist, 34% said they intended voting Remain.

Cina

Don't dump pics here please.

EdgeCase

charlie14 wrote: »

Always impossible to know how people actually vote on the day, but I feel a good indicator of how the "2 communities" voted on Brexit is a poll carried out shortly before the vote by Ipsos-MORI on behalf of Queen`s University Belfast in face to face interviews with 4,000 participants.

Those that identified themselves as nationalist, 88% said they intended voting Remain.
Those that identified themselves as unionist, 34% said they intended voting Remain.

I'd be interested to know what % didn't identify as either. I know a lot of younger Northern Irish people that I have encountered seem to have an identity that tends to combine both or that is distinctively Northern Irish and just reflects the complexities of the situation up there.

There's a significant population of people up there who are just fed up with the us vs them mentality and it also tends to drive people to leave and settle elsewhere ... https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45804194

I mean it must become psychologically draining to listen to the legacy of that conflict in every aspect of politics all the time.

Brexit is already re-polarising Northern Irish politics in a way that we had assumed was starting to fade and the loud shouting tends to just alienate those who would rather just have a normal life. I would have my doubts that many people in the North see Brexit as much more than an annoyance. Even unionists I've spoken to seem to see it as something being imposed upon them even if they don't have any desire to join a United Ireland they were quite comfortable with the status quo and the direction that things were going.

charlie14

badtoro wrote: »

One would be foolish to criticise politicians when representing a lobby dependent on politicians. By all means go after policy, but it's a double edged sword to go after specific politicians personally or individual parties. Your members may think the world of them, and, or you may need that individual or party in the future. Play the long game.

That was the point I was making. That while unionist voters may drift from the DUP party line when it comes to issues like Brexit, come the next election the DUP`s line of "there was never a problem with the border, the RoI made it one to get a UI" that will draw the unionist vote rather than perhaps the more moderate voice of the UUP.
Like the scorpion on the fox`s back crossing the river, it`s just the way they are.

trellheim

It would appear that Gove et.al. are going to try and go back to the Barnier well. I am not sure that will end well with TM or with the EU

What is the next step for UK approval here. Assuming there is no successful heave against TM, when do they plan to put it to a vote ?

theguzman

I think it is fair to say that whether you like or loathe them the DUP are the most representative party of their constituents. They actually deliver on what they say and do and listen to their voters. Arlene Foster has a brass neck and I think she is breath of fresh air and we need more hardline leaders like her whether they are hard right or hard left, they actually stand up for something and believe in something. They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country.



I'd love if Ian Paisley was around for all this it would be hilarious, he was a man of conviction and stood up for his community, Sinn Fein today are more obsessed with Abortion and non-issue things like Gender Neutral Toilets etc. where if they had a backbone they'd take their seats in Westminister and scupper the whole thing, once again they are pigs at the trough, the DUP would cut off their noses to spite their face because they have conviction and meaning.

DrumSteve

theguzman wrote: »

I think it is fair to say that whether you like or loathe them the DUP are the most representative party of their constituents. They actually deliver on what they say and do and listen to their voters. Arlene Foster has a brass neck and I think she is breath of fresh air and we need more hardline leaders like her whether they are hard right or hard left, they actually stand up for something and believe in something. They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country.



I'd love if Ian Paisley was around for all this it would be hilarious, he was a man of conviction and stood up for his community, Sinn Fein today are more obsessed with Abortion and non-issue things like Gender Neutral Toilets etc. where if they had a backbone they'd take their seats in Westminister and scupper the whole thing, once again they are pigs at the trough, the DUP would cut off their noses to spite their face because they have conviction and meaning.

I wonder do pigs eat out of wood pellet troughs?

A Dub in Glasgo

theguzman wrote: »

I'd love if Ian Paisley was around for all this it would be hilarious, he was a man of conviction and stood up for his community.

Well you have got his son who seems a nice DUP chap if you want hypocrisy and corruption in your politicians

Professor Moriarty

theguzman wrote: »

I think it is fair to say that whether you like or loathe them the DUP are the most representative party of their constituents. They actually deliver on what they say and do and listen to their voters. Arlene Foster has a brass neck and I think she is breath of fresh air and we need more hardline leaders like her whether they are hard right or hard left, they actually stand up for something and believe in something. They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country.



I'd love if Ian Paisley was around for all this it would be hilarious, he was a man of conviction and stood up for his community, Sinn Fein today are more obsessed with Abortion and non-issue things like Gender Neutral Toilets etc. where if they had a backbone they'd take their seats in Westminister and scupper the whole thing, once again they are pigs at the trough, the DUP would cut off their noses to spite their face because they have conviction and meaning.

"I think it is fair to say that whether you like or loathe them the DUP are the most representative party of their constituents."

No. They are very unrepresentative of their constituents. They represent their voters only to the detriment of many of their constituents.


"They actually deliver on what they say and do and listen to their voters."

They have delivered nothing. Never mind the fact that a majority in NI voted remain.


"They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country."

Ash.


"They are not pigs at the trough like so many career politicians in this country."

Ian Paisley Junior.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting - Amber Rudd back in the Cabinet at Work and Pensions!

flatty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting - Amber Rudd back in the Cabinet at Work and Pensions!

I'm surprised she went back after how may treated her last time.

Shelga

Steve Barclay appointed as new Brexit Secretary- another Brexiter. This will end well.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Steve Barclay appointed as new Brexit Secretary- another Brexiter. This will end well.

Third time lucky,

An Ciarraioch

Shelga wrote: »

Steve Barclay appointed as new Brexit Secretary- another Brexiter. This will end well.

Related to the Jersey tax exiles, presumably?