Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

An Ciarraioch

If Shropshire is representative of England as a whole, it seems Leavers would rather leave with no deal if necessary:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/15/a-fudge-not-what-we-voted-for-the-brexit-view-from-shropshire

charlie14

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wonder what would happen if we got an election/2nd ref where it is not a 'them and us' decision. Such as one purely about Brexit and how it affects unionist and nationalist alike. I don't think the DUP would fare at all well given the business community's pronouncements today or the consensus there seems to be in Ulster farming. UUP would thrive I reckon if they backed this deal.

A 2nd referendum I would see the Remain vote going up.
A GE I`m not that sure with the DUP roaring while pointing south, "Them ones are trying to get a UI with this. This is all their fault" it would make a blind bit of difference seat wise.

EdgeCase

prawnsambo wrote: »

Bloomberg's Tim Ross is reporting that Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox are meeting to re-write the agreement over the next week. The bizarreness doesn't stop.

How can you rewrite an 'agreement'?

Surely you'd have to negotiate all of the changes and then re-agree everything.

Basically a group of rogue ministers are attempting to do a parallel negotiation and the document they would produce would be a proposal not an 'agreement'.

Part of the problem with the UK position is that the negotiation has actually been largely between the Tories and the Tories or with the Tabloid press.

LeinsterDub

prawnsambo wrote: »

Bloomberg's Tim Ross is reporting that Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox are meeting to re-write the agreement over the next week. The bizarreness doesn't stop.

Since we are rewriting agreements why not rewrite the Anglo-Irish agreement of 1921. Get rid of the north and all their brexit problems are solved

Anthracite

Deleted User wrote: »

It has to be remembered that while NI did vote to remain overall it was less than 56% remain. I have no idea how that splits between the 2 "communities".

Important to remember that, until very recently, Sinn Fein were very anti-EU.

Econ__

EdgeCase wrote: »

How can you rewrite an 'agreement'?

Surely you'd have to negotiate all of the changes and then re-agree everything.

Basically a group of rogue ministers are attempting to do a parallel negotiation and the document they would produce would be a proposal not an 'agreement'.

Part of the problem with the UK position is that the negotiation has actually been largely between the Tories and the Tories or with the Tabloid press.

People have to stop taking at face value everything Tory politicians brief out to the media.

There's a huge amount of sucking up to the hardline Brexiters because Tory Cabinet ministers know that if they want to become leader in the future they need to have some kind of buy in with the headbangers.

This latest brief can be read as "We're on your side and we're trying. Honest." and "please don't hate me".

Subterfuge via the media is an intrinsic part of UK politics and particularly with respect to the Conservative Party.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ian Paisley Snr was frequently on the news here in England and personally I always thought it strange that someone wearing a priests collar seemed so full of hatred..As a neutral(hoping for a deal which is good for Ireland and the UK) ,you tend to sit up and listen to Arlene Foster as she does seem very passionate about what she`s saying and to be fair,the majority of the people of NI must think she`s doing a decent job or she would`nt be in power.

Not sure if this is a joke but are you one of the people from across the water who only recently learned that nationalists don't vote for unionist politicians and vice versa?

On a side note, she's not even in power - there is no assemly for her to be the first minister of.

prawnsambo

Gintonious wrote: »

Haven't the EU said that they won't be renegotiating anything?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I would be amazed if the EU reopens negotiations. To them the deal is done.

There is one way out for the hard brexiters though.

They can leave NI completely in the SM and CU and then GB would be free to do whatever it likes...

Would be quickest way to agreement and buyin at Westminister.

EdgeCase wrote: »

How can you rewrite an 'agreement'?

Surely you'd have to negotiate all of the changes and then re-agree everything.

Basically a group of rogue ministers are attempting to do a parallel negotiation and the document they would produce would be a proposal not an 'agreement'.

Part of the problem with the UK position is that the negotiation has actually been largely between the Tories and the Tories or with the Tabloid press.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Since we are rewriting agreements why not rewrite the Anglo-Irish agreement of 1921. Get rid of the north and all their brexit problems are solved

Don't shoot the messenger.


We're through the looking glass here folks, though to be fair, it's a draft agreement, so it's possible to do a bit of editing. I suspect that May told them to fark off and rewrite it if they were so sure they could do a better job. Incidentally, that's what Cameron should have done way back in the day when he wanted to shut the ERG types up. Would have saved a lot of heartache and they'd still be beavering away today. Or running away. It's hard to tell with that lot.

Seth Brundle

Anthracite wrote: »

Important to remember that, until very recently, Sinn Fein were very anti-EU.

Aren't they still anti-EU?

An Ciarraioch

Interesting NI opinion poll:

DUP 31% (-5)
SF 27% (-2)
UUP 15% (+5)
Alliance 12% (+4)
SDLP 11% (-1)

Seats:

DUP 9 (-1)
SF 5 (-2)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Ind Unionist 1 (-)

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1062757712558243841

An Ciarraioch

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Anthracite wrote: »

Important to remember that, until very recently, Sinn Fein were very anti-EU.

Aren't they still anti-EU?

More wanting to reform it with other far-left parties, rather than wanting to leave.

prawnsambo

Not a bit surprised. Have heard a number of NI business people talking about this sorry mess and the DUP weren't being mentioned kindly. The obvious correlation between a hard brexit and a UI hadn't escaped them and they were quite scathing about it. But also, buisness and transport routes through Ireland were issues that exercised them. UUP will definitely get a boost from this.

For Forks Sake

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting NI opinion poll:

DUP 31% (-5)
SF 27% (-2)
UUP 15% (+5)
Alliance 12% (+4)
SDLP 11% (-1)

Seats:

DUP 9 (-1)
SF 5 (-2)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Ind Unionist 1 (-)

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1062757712558243841

Maybe the move to the centre has finally begun. Would be good to see a consensus party like Alliance make some headway.

PlasticPatrick

theguzman wrote: »

Ireland are currently paying billions into the EU whilst there is a housing crisis here, this money would be better off to help people get a roof over their head instead of being spent of Angela Merkel's EU Federal Army.

The "Project" is getting out of hand, a militarised europe will see history repeating itself only this time Ireland will not be able to sit it out as a nation.

Inquitus

theguzman wrote:

Ireland are currently paying billions into the EU whilst there is a housing crisis here, this money would be better off to help people get a roof over their head instead of being spent of Angela Merkel's EU Federal Army.

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

The "Project" is getting out of hand, a militarised europe will see history repeating itself only this time Ireland will not be able to sit it out as a nation.

The "Project" that has delivered us from a nation of relative poverty to being one of the richest in the world, yep, lets leave....

MrMusician18

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

The "Project" is getting out of hand, a militarised europe will see history repeating itself only this time Ireland will not be able to sit it out as a nation.

I know we all have to start somewhere but that's an interesting first post. It fits in well with others interesting first posts on this thread.

An interesting takeaway from that poll is that it identifies a SF seat going to the UUP effectively. DUP support had been trimmed sure but hasn't collapsed

prawnsambo

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

The "Project" is getting out of hand, a militarised europe will see history repeating itself only this time Ireland will not be able to sit it out as a nation.

We got billions from Europe for decades. But when it's time for us to step up, we suddenly start shuffling our feet and looking at the floor?

charlie14

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting NI opinion poll:

DUP 31% (-5)
SF 27% (-2)
UUP 15% (+5)
Alliance 12% (+4)
SDLP 11% (-1)

Seats:

DUP 9 (-1)
SF 5 (-2)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 1 (+1)
Ind Unionist 1 (-)

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1062757712558243841

From their 2015 results that would still leave the UUP -1, and the DUP +5.

mickoneill31

prawnsambo wrote: »

We got billions from Europe for decades. But when it's time for us to step up, we suddenly start shuffling our feet and looking at the floor?

Not really. Therell always be a few but most of us in Ireland are able to see the benefits that being in the EU gives us.

And if they can't, would they please educate themselves as to the damage being done to the UK. If there's one advantage of Brexit is that it serves as a cautionary tale.

Anthracite

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

The "Project" is getting out of hand, a militarised europe will see history repeating itself only this time Ireland will not be able to sit it out as a nation.

Europe is already militarised, unless I am very much mistaken. Presumably if we were not adequately militarised, history would also repeat itself and a mongol horde would come and wipe us out.

prawnsambo

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Not really. Therell always be a few but most of us in Ireland are able to see the benefits that being in the EU gives us.

And if they can't, would they please educate themselves as to the damage being done to the UK. If there's one advantage of Brexit is that it serves as a cautionary tale.

You do realise that was a rhetorical question? You should really be directing those remarks to the plastic one post wonder.

hill16bhoy

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think it will be down to the wire.

I think in December the deal will be rejected by parliament.

There will be some very minor tweaking of the deal/wording by TM/EU, to save face/put to new vote.

Then, in the New Year, parliament will pass it, as the horrors of no deal become more and more apparent (and as sterling/markets are dropping through the floor!).

I can see UK public opinion swinging back significantly in May's favour over the next few weeks.

Public opinion is a really strange and fickle thing and sometimes sympathy, pity almost, can actually strengthen somebody.

I should make clear that I despise the Tories with every fibre of my being. However even I am now beginning to see May as a trier, hapless maybe, but as an embattled figure who is effectively being bullied from all sides, and particularly by the crackpots in her own party.

She's even being undermined by the cakeists in her own cabinet.

She's now occupying a John Major 1995 type position and then some, and it's difficult not to have some modicum of sympathy for her on a personal level.

She is at least offering something, a plan, and she is beeing seen to stand alone in defence of that plan. Whereas the ERG and assorted other No Deal crackpots are offering absolutely nothing except chaos.

In the continuing absence of a second referendum, I really do feel May has an excellent chance of getting this deal passed, although maybe not on the first attempt.

PlasticPatrick

Inquitus wrote: »

The "Project" that has delivered us from a nation of relative poverty to being one of the richest in the world, yep, lets leave....

I didn't say that Ireland should leave, but if you are measuring the sucess of the EU by the fact that Ireland is presently "rich" then you need to look back at history, back to 2008 should do it. After that back to the 40's and then to the great depression.

The world and European economies will not always be so buoyant and make no mistake the Germans and French will look after themselves when the time comes.

I work with a number of Greek nationals who also thought that they were rich gorged on the European Debt that the German banks in particular poured into the country, they don't feel so rich now.

If you sell your soul to the devil he will eventually be dropping by to collect.

Ireland is in a great position but healthy scepticism should always have a place somewhere in your decision making process. If it appears too good to be true it usually is.

badtoro

hill16bhoy wrote: »

although maybe not on the first attempt.

Should that happen there will be some fun with brexiteers crying over voting for the same thing twice ala Ireland (I know we didn't but they love the line).

Seth Brundle

@PlasticPatrick -ignoring the silly phrases about the devil etc, what is your suggested solution?
Go alone?
Join team GB? They've shown over the centuries that they are never your friend.
Stay in the EU effectively as a joint partner?
Something else?

Roanmore

Are all the DUP united in support for Brexit or have any of them spoke out against it?

PlasticPatrick

Seth Brundle wrote: »

@PlasticPatrick -ignoring the silly phrases about the devil etc, what is your suggested solution?
Go alone?
Join team GB? They've shown over the centuries that they are never your friend.
Stay in the EU effectively as a joint partner?
Something else?

None of the above, just be wary of a push to militarise Europe and use any influence that Ireland has to prevent it.

Neutrality will not be an option once an EU army influenced by the Germans and French is used to exert foreign policy on behalf of the people of Europe and Ireland.

Sam Russell

I think that the notion that a second ref is needed is mistaken because there is not time - it could not be run before March 19.

What could happen is the current plan is voted down, and then a motion is put that Art 50 is withdrawn - either by unilateral vote, or by acceptance by the unanimous agreement of EU27. If that is passed by HOC, then Brexit is dust - to be studied in history classes for the next hundred years, like the Dutch tulips mania, or the South Sea Bubble.

The 'Peoples Vote' suffers from several problems:

1. It is putting the question again - 'the People have decided - Will of the People'

2. 'Best of three type' of argument.

3. What if it gives a 52 remain, 48 against - then it suffers from legitimacy.

4. There is no time to run it.

It would need to win by more than 60-40 to get any legitimacy.

A vote by the 'Sovereign Parliament' should be sufficient to settle the matter. After all, the Supreme Court ruled that the Parliament had to vote to activate Art 50 and that it was not suffient for the executive to give an Order in Council.
So by the same judgement, surely the same Parliament can vote to withdraw it without reference to any advisory referendum.

Seth Brundle

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

None of the above, just be wary of a push to militarise Europe and use any influence that Ireland has to prevent it.

Ok forgive my trepidation against a newbie expert telling me to be wary of the EU.

PlasticPatrick wrote: »

Neutrality will not be an option once an EU army influenced by the Germans and French is used to exert foreign policy on behalf of the people of Europe and Ireland.

Is that based on any evidence or just a hunch?

GalwayMark

Some basic defence capabilities is not the end of the world and comparing it to the British army is frankly crass. We can’t have opt-outs when it suits since the bloc has shown massive solidarity throughout the whole brexit process. However running an army doesn’t we have to become like our Sparta-like neighbours. Maybe ask the Baltic’s who sleep easier but would be terrified if Europe was not able to protect them any time the kremlin made noises. Don’t get me wrong the global expenditure on militaries is outrageous and the arms industry must be shut down or have their power severely curtailed but all member states must keep it together.