Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Strazdas

PeadarCo wrote: »

Which sums up the debacle. A lot of Brexiters can't see the obvious. The EU is the UKs biggest trade partner and will continue to be in the event of a hard brexit. The minute the UK it becomes a rule taker not a rule maker with the EU regardless of the deal or suffer the economic fallout. That will be the case with every major trade block. The vote to take by "control" was a form of control that the UK lost the ability to excert on an international stage decades ago.

True : they're trying to return to 1973 but not realising the whole of the world and Europe has moved on and changed since then. They could only "take back control" if Europe was frozen in time and still looked how it looked in 1973.

Kermit.de.frog

Surely simply leaving the border open on the UK side in the event of no deal would mean they would not be able to do free trade deals - with anyone?

Yet this seems to be their argument - "we won't put one up, let Ireland/EU do it".

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

Of course you do.

Not sure there is much evidence that the people who really matter are slowly coming round to the idea though. MPs seem very entrenched in their positions on both sides of the house.

We’ll see what happens

When you have the likes of A. Foster going totally against the views of Farming and Business interests you can see how diverged those in politics are.

I see that gap closing tbh, and a heavy sigh of relief as it goes through parliament. The last 2 years has been a **** show of British political arrogance meeting the reality of who they actually are on a European stage never mind a world one.

Adjustment coming up for them. May is just the conduit for that.

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Surely simply leaving the border open on the UK side in the event of no deal would mean they would not be able to do free trade deals - with anyone?

Yet this seems to be their argument - "we won't put one up, let Ireland/EU do it".

Most favored nation clause of the WTO agreements would come into play meaning in theory they'd have to offer everyone 0 % tariff on everything. In practice however the WTO moves so slowly it would be years before it could be enforced.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When you have the likes of A. Foster going totally against the views of Farming and Business interests you can see how diverged those in politics are.

I see that gap closing tbh, and a heavy sigh of relief as it goes through parliament. The last 2 years has been a **** show of British political arrogance meeting the reality of who they actually are on a European stage never mind a world one.

Adjustment coming up for them. May is just the conduit for that.

The reality of what the UK's position on the European stage is - one of the major countries on the top table alongside France and Germany-and if the UK comes to its senses that can stay the same..

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

It's an absolutely valid point and I agree with her - what she's not adding though is it has been caused by Vote Leave and the Brexiteers

Why should the UK get more of a say or more MEP's or more commissioners than other non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland and Turkey have ?


The question was very clear, even if she didn't understand it at the time, May kept saying "Brexit means Brexit" so hardly a surprise now.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union [ ]

Leave the European Union [ X ]

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

True : they're trying to return to 1973

In 1973, the UK was in the poo.

Zubeneschamali

LeinsterDub wrote: »

In practice however the WTO moves so slowly it would be years before it could be enforced.

Ah, but they will at the same time be applying to the WTO to get a schedule approved. No chance if they have a wide open border.

PeadarCo

Strazdas wrote:

True : they're trying to return to 1973 but not realising the whole of the world and Europe has moved on and changed since then. They could only "take back control" if Europe was frozen in time and still looked how it looked in 1973.

I'm thinking more like a hundred years ago or at the very least pre WW2. The UK joined the EU for a reason and alot of that was economic. The UK was also a key driver of the Single market. As a large country in the EU the UK has a large amount of influence/control. Far far more than it will have outside the EU. The negotiations over the last few years have been a good example.

Igotadose

David Davis actually does sometimes do something. He's written an editorial for thehill.com, begging for a trade deal once Brexit's happened.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/417257-now-is-the-chance-for-america-to-strike-free-trade-deal-with-britain

(of course, it's not 'now', it's once Brexit 'happens' whenever that is). I wonder if there can be official negotiations prior to then...

First Up

fash wrote: »

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Britain have been humiliated on the world stage by the communist EU. The UK is a permanent seat holder of the UN Security Council and is getting humiliated like this. They have only one real course of action to save face here and the credibility as a power on the world stage and that’s to get rid of May, go for a no deal and severe security ties with the EU citing the unfriendly threats they’ve made to them. A few months of military brinkmanship would seen see the EU offer a simple free trade deal.

Please explain how the proposed agreement is not a massive victory for the UK:
Access to the Customs Union with unprecedentedly limited rules, which GB can leave at any time it chooses simply limiting the SM/CU to Northern Ireland;
Precedent setting inclusion of future trade agreement aspects into the Withdrawal agreement;
Precedent setting minimal checks for access to the SM (currently between NI and GB - but possible between UK and SM);
It can even get NI out of the SM/CU by coming up with any other solution which will achieve a soft border and got the EU to concede that it must make good faith efforts to agree such a solution and that it subject to third party determination outside issues of EU law;
There is even the possibility that the UK can engineer a situation to dump NI (which let us not forget is a parasite which costs significantly more than the red bus NHS promise) onto the EU if it wants;
Special status for Northern Ireland allowing privileged access to the SM which will undoubtedly lead to greater FDI;
A "settlement of accounts" which is a fraction of what the EU wanted and that spread out over years; and
No more freedom of movement.

Seriously, why this that not considered an spectacular victory by the UK as opposed to "humiliation"?

I understand that Boris etc. wants to pretend it is bad to allow him to boo from the sidelines and why the DUP, but why otherwise is it considered bad?

Yeah, they should grab it with both hands. Can't understand what MP's were whinging about in the Commons this week.

fash

First Up wrote: »

Yeah, they should grab it with both hands. Can't understand what MP's were whinging about in the Commons this week.

And of note: “neutral Brexiter” David Allen Green also notes that it is not a bad document from a UK perspective (yesterday’s posting on jackofkent.com ).

From my perspective the winners of the WA are:
1. Ireland
2. UK
With last place going to the EU (and I am sure you can break that down further).

WomanSkirtFan8

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In 1973, the UK was in the poo.

well, if they were in the poo in 1973, they're going to be in the absolute cesspit after brexit hits. :rolleyes:

First Up

fash wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Yeah, they should grab it with both hands. Can't understand what MP's were whinging about in the Commons this week.

And of note: “neutral Brexiter” David Allen Green also notes that it is not a bad document from a UK perspective (yesterday’s posting on jackofkent.com ).

From my perspective the winners of the WA are:
1. Ireland
2. UK
With last place going to the EU (and I am sure you can break that down further).

I'd have them in a slightly different order but whatever rows your boat.

CrabRevolution

It's interesting how there seems to be a 100% overlap between those who really want Brexit and those who retrospectively declare the pound was "overvalued" before June 2016.

Also interesting is how they've decided that this is the case despite never having shown any interest or made any comment on any currency markets before or since.

Oafley Jones

Igotadose wrote: »

David Davis actually does sometimes do something. He's written an editorial for thehill.com, begging for a trade deal once Brexit's happened.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/417257-now-is-the-chance-for-america-to-strike-free-trade-deal-with-britain

(of course, it's not 'now', it's once Brexit 'happens' whenever that is). I wonder if there can be official negotiations prior to then...

“We’re desperate for a quick deal” is an interesting strategy when it comes to getting your way in trade negotiations.

Spook_ie

Wasn't the first referendum on EU (EEC) membership that divided government of the day.

How many were around in 1975?

https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/features/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35641263/35641263

Spook_ie

Just as interest and balance anyone remember May 1972?

https://www.rte.ie/archives/2017/0503/872109-eec-referendum-campaigning/

Anthracite

Oafley Jones wrote: »

“We’re desperate for a quick deal” is an interesting strategy when it comes to getting your way in trade negotiations.

Definitely going to try this next time I'm buying a car: "Hi there: I'm looking for a car - any car. And I need it immediately!"

That should bring the price right down and make sure I get the best available vehicle.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

The reality of what the UK's position on the European stage is - one of the major countries on the top table alongside France and Germany-and if the UK comes to its senses that can stay the same..

There is no top table in Europe anymore. The EU means that everyone sits at the same table. If you are foolish enough not to sit at the EU's table, all you get is scraps.

An Ciarraioch

According to the Sundays, Davis and Johnson plan to join forces, seven names will be put in the hat when the confidence vote is held, and there are proposals for a Norway Brexit if May's deal is defeated:

http://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1063913551025397760

cml387

That's quite clever by the Sunday Express (now descending from orbit to be relatively reasonable), portraying the nightmare of what's to come if you don't back Teresa may.

ilovesmybrick

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

According to the Sundays, Davis and Johnson plan to join forces, seven names will be put in the hat when the confidence vote is held, and there are proposals for a Norway Brexit if May's deal is defeated:

http://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1063913551025397760

Honestly this is getting incredibly frustrating. Fair deuce to Barnier for having such patience over the past two years. Davis think's he can rewrite the c. 600 page agreement over a weekend and the EU will accept it, Johnson is siding with a man who stabbed him in the back during the leadership campaign, and the EU have made it very,very clear that this is it in terms of an agreement. I understand there's a huge amount of domestic politics at play, but that's all they've been playing at for two years. There are twenty-seven other countries that have their own concerns and issues, and with the exception of a sizable minority Brexit is not one of them.

What do these people honestly think that they will achieve? Perhaps it could be that we have a recent national memory of taking a bad deal from a larger power and learning to make it into a stepping stone to what we need over time, I honestly don't know. They have the best deal that could be achieved considering the UK has no leverage. Yes, a large country, but one whose traditional ally in the US is frankly bonkers at the moment, who spent two years insulting every other country in Europe, and repeatedly promote people outside of their level of competence for the pretense of balance.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

According to the Sundays, Davis and Johnson plan to join forces, seven names will be put in the hat when the confidence vote is held, and there are proposals for a Norway Brexit if May's deal is defeated

A Norway Brexit has the advantage that it's an existing template. And they get some control.

It has the slight disadvantage that there'd be a Hard Border and the UK would have to accept the four freedoms , including Freedom of Movement. Details here.

In addition to the normal EU fees Norway also pays a lot of money to the EU for use by the Eastern Countries. And Norway is in Schengen.

I'm still not convinced that the EEA would let the UK join the club because they are too big and too different. An independent Scotland would be a much better fit.

briany

Norway deal? If you're a Brexiteer, then that's even worse than the current proposal, surely. At least the current deal restricts immigration. Maybe I'm being cynical, but I believe that controlling immigration was the primary thrust of the whole thing among ordinary British Brexit voters.

Accepting the FFs will be completely unacceptable to all but the very softest Brexiteers.

Regarding the Irish border, the GFA + Ireland remaining in the EU + wanting to maintain the integrity of the UK makes a clean Brexit impossible. One of these would need to go.

tuxy

briany wrote: »

Norway deal? If you're a Brexiteer, then that's even worse than the current proposal, surely. At least the current deal restricts immigration. Maybe I'm being cynical, but I believe that controlling immigration was the primary thrust of the whole thing among ordinary British Brexit voters.

I believe this is where there is a disconnect between the politicians and the people who voted for them.

Kermit.de.frog

Ultimately what I think will happen is GB will opt out of CU and SM and leave NI in both so GB can go do it's own thing.

gimli2112

you just have to look at the language from the likes of Rabb. His first interview on resigning he said "the most important thing is not to give in to the EU blackmail". Today I wake up to "we must not give into the EU bullies".


You can't negotiate with that mentality

Kermit.de.frog

What do you all make of this?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064056122146021376

Zubeneschamali

gimli2112 wrote: »

You can't negotiate with that mentality

Fortunately there is no need, since the negotiations on the WA are over.