Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

An Ciarraioch

Public opinion is, somewhat slowly, shifting in relation to the deal:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1066049396373184513

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..

The WA will still be passed on Sunday, so just a question now of what date the HoC vote will be fixed for.

CelticRambler

murphaph wrote: »

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts.

Whatever else may have been involved, I doubt very much that "lost in translation" had anything to do with it! If there's one thing the EU does really well, it's multilingual translation - in real time for discussions, and accurately for it documentation. Pay a visit to the EU parliament some day and see their language/translation services in work.

Professor Moriarty

GSRNBP wrote: »

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

That's a bloodbath. If the Brexiteers say the economy can withstand that or anything like it then they are truly delusional. Or liars.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..

Is there a veto at this stage? I believe not.

kowtow

GSRNBP wrote: »

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

If they have actually executed hedges at Parity they stand to incur a substantial loss if this deal goes through.

RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

Is there a veto at this stage? I believe not.

According to the financial times they don`t have an official veto although a general consensus is preferable , if other countries support them it`s manna from heaven to rees -mogg and his chums.

Adamcp898

Anthracite wrote: »

Is there a veto at this stage? I believe not.

No, as far as the brexit deal goes a standing majority is all that's needed on the EU side, 20 of 27 countries iirc.

Their veto only starts to hold weight if and when it would presumably be used against any trade deals etc. with the UK as they're negotiated after brexit has taken place.

Storm in a tea cup sort of stuff and not much heft to it imo given Spain's own current governmental status. All those British sun holiday-ers still have to go somewhere after all too.

Capt'n Midnight

Rhineshark wrote: »

Yes, yes they do. It's mad, but it appears to be that because most British don't or can't read foreign-language press that Europeans can't/don't read English. Despite all the heaped evidence to the contrary.

The Swiss strategy for handling the Brexit transition is actually called "Mind the Gap".

Those three words should tell you how culturally aware they are of the UK.
And the issues to be resolved.
And possibly a hint of "what did you think would happen if you build curved platforms ?"

Capt'n Midnight

kowtow wrote: »

If they have actually executed hedges at Parity they stand to incur a substantial loss if this deal goes through.

Regardless, these are extra costs that affect profitability.


Premier Foods own Bisto, Oxo and Mr Kipling.
Pre tax profit was £30m last year. Stockpiling will cost them £10m.

One way to avoid tying up cash is to get your suppliers to do it, but if there's too much of this and suppliers go wallop then it could have the opposite effect.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/11/23/business/23reuters-britain-eu-aerospace-analysis.html

Bitrez, a speciality chemicals manufacturer based in north west England, said some customers now ask suppliers to provide material to their premises, with the customer only invoiced as the stock gets used.

...
As the Brexit clock ticks down, the bigger companies are worried that their own contingency plans are only as robust as those of the thousands of smaller suppliers on which they rely. Airbus, which has 4,000 companies in its UK supply chain, said in July it was activating its Brexit contingency plans to build up "buffers" because it thought the British government's strategy was unravelling.

An Ciarraioch

Yes, it's Eurobarometer, but only two member states see support for remaining in the EU under 50% - rather than France or Greece, Italy is the biggest danger, but even there, virtually every undecided voter would have to switch to leave:

https://i.imgur.com/Tkoebhe.jpg

Similar stats on eurozone membership:

http://twitter.com/LBiniSmaghi/status/1064774679775363072

listermint

Brexit.

Vital for sharpening the minds.

No one wants to be like the UK

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, it's Eurobarometer, but only two member states see support for remaining in the EU under 50% - rather than France or Greece, Italy is the biggest danger, but even there, virtually every undecided voter would have to switch to leave:

Italy, like France averages one government a year.

They also have a very large black economy and a huge chunk of national debt is held in the country (which is why the rest of the EU bond market hasn't been hit)

Not so long ago the relatively new party Lega Lombarda were trying to get independence for Northern Italy as Padania and ditch the poorer south. The flag was going to be a thin red cross on a white background :rolleyes:

Now they are trying to change the system from within, an accolade that might be better for 5 Star a new populist part that have literally come from nowhere.


Meanwhile in the UK it's flip-flop between the hard lines of entrenched parties. The idea of someone from either of their two parties changing to the other is extremely unlikely.

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly unearths the DUP's last European election manifesto - it describes the Single Market as one of the EU's most transformative assets, describes the potential for growth through the free movement of labour, goods, capital and services, and details how the party would help local businesses exploit its potential, promoting NI's highly-skilled and highly-educated workforce to showcase an hospitable business environment within the Single Market!

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1123/1012997-brexit-and-dup/

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly unearths the DUP's last European election manifesto - it describes the Single Market as one of the EU's most transformative assets, describes the potential for growth through the free movement of labour, goods, capital and services, and details how the party would help local businesses exploit its potential, promoting NI's highly-skilled and highly-educated workforce to showcase an hospitable business environment within the Single Market!

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1123/1012997-brexit-and-dup/

I seem to remember a certain government party in this jurisdiction promising to abolish USC if elected. Manifestos are works of fiction. Ironically, so is the WA and the declaration on future trade.

Igotadose

Sort-of weakly Brexit Related, but Brexit visionary Nigel Farage, spouts off that Khashoggi is a 'deep state spook' and a 'so-called journalist.' Nice. But, 'He's an SOB but our SOB.'

Farage will make a great Fox news UK-accented talking head once he bails from UK politics completely.

https://www.mediaite.com/online/fox-news-host-dead-so-called-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-really-a-deep-state-saudi-spook/

Water John

Here Singham IEA, the glory economics boy of Leave, says staying is better.
He is also very exposed with having been economical with the truth in his CV.
Hint, he has no qualification in Economics.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/pro-brexit-adviser-admits-uk-would-be-better-off-staying-in-eu

Professor Moriarty

Igotadose wrote: »

Sort-of weakly Brexit Related, but Brexit visionary Nigel Farage, spouts off that Khashoggi is a 'deep state spook' and a 'so-called journalist.' Nice. But, 'He's an SOB but our SOB.'

Farage will make a great Fox news UK-accented talking head once he bails from UK politics completely.

https://www.mediaite.com/online/fox-news-host-dead-so-called-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-really-a-deep-state-saudi-spook/

Ironic considering Nigel is a person of interest for the FBI and Mueller.

This is starting to feel rather orchestrated. May defiant in support of the referendum, and everyone rowing back, which will lead to her saying that although she wants to do as the people ask, their representatives are overwhelmingly saying it's bad. And then a referendum that would save the Tories with most looking ok at the end of it.

The remainers fought, the Brexiters saw sense, and after a long struggle, May succumbed to the pressure whilst trying to the best thing.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

This is starting to feel rather orchestrated. May defiant in support of the referendum, and everyone rowing back, which will lead to her saying that although she wants to do as the people ask, their representatives are overwhelmingly saying it's bad. And then a referendum that would save the Tories with most looking ok at the end of it.

The remainers fought, the Brexiters saw sense, and after a long struggle, May succumbed to the pressure whilst trying to the best thing.

Its about as orchestrated as seeing a cork bobbing on the sea as trying to swim the channel.

Rhineshark

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/23/inenglish/1542988530_166087.amp.html

May have been brought up and explained before but this does seem to be about specifically vetoing the WA. Which I don't think will have much effect unless Spain can get other countries on board as it's QMV. It might be a warning shot across the bows regarding a future trade deal - which will require unanimous agreement though.

Must admit, I was expecting this under Rajoy but it seemed to go quiet after he was replaced. Guess they were either lurking in the long grass until time was getting tight (basically the UK aim with NI; get to the wire with only this unsolved to force a concession) or the backchannel quiet negotiations have gotten as much competence from the UK side as...everything else Brexit related.

blackcard

I always thought that it should have been UKexit but maybe Brexit will be the correct term. It shows how little Northern Ireland was thought of that the term Brexit was used.

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted.

trellheim

I am surprised the Danes have not opened fishing in the same way the Spaniards have done on Gib

An Ciarraioch

Rhineshark wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/23/inenglish/1542988530_166087.amp.html

May have been brought up and explained before but this does seem to be about specifically vetoing the WA. Which I don't think will have much effect unless Spain can get other countries on board as it's QMV. It might be a warning shot across the bows regarding a future trade deal - which will require unanimous agreement though.

Must admit, I was expecting this under Rajoy but it seemed to go quiet after he was replaced. Guess they were either lurking in the long grass until time was getting tight (basically the UK aim with NI; get to the wire with only this unsolved to force a concession) or the backchannel quiet negotiations have gotten as much competence from the UK side as...everything else Brexit related.

As mentioned before, regional elections in Andalusia (which borders Gibraltar) are happening on Sunday week, with the PP, C's and a new party called Vox all striving to outdo each other on the right, so Sanchez felt the need to respond in kind.

An Ciarraioch

Amazing revisionism by Liam Halligan today - Kenny never mentioned the Border either before or after the referendum, and it never arose at EU level until Varadkar took office (despite being one of the three pillars of the Withdrawal Agreement). Alongside the customary quotes from Trimble and Ray Bassett, Spectator readers learn that the Taoiseach is being kept in power by "Irish nationalists", which will flatter FF!

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/leo-varadkar-has-done-his-absolute-best-to-damage-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Inquitus

Interesting video from the BBC posted earlier in the thread, 3 experts give their opinions. All 3 think it will be voted down at the first attempt, none of them think a 2nd referendum is likely, one thinks May might resign or the 48 letters will go in, and they all seem to think it will come down to a May's deal or no deal 2nd Vote that may be carried.

RobMc59

Inquitus wrote: »

Interesting video from the BBC posted earlier in the thread, 3 experts give their opinions. All 3 think it will be voted down at the first attempt, none of them think a 2nd referendum is likely, one thinks May might resign or the 48 letters will go in, and they all seem to think it will come down to a May's deal or no deal 2nd Vote that may be carried.

This forum has quickly educated me to the fact that the BBC unashamedly follow the line of the UK government and are not in the slightest bit impartial-this came as a shock as I'd always trusted the BBC-is there no mention of the option of remaining in the article?

Inquitus

RobMc59 wrote: »

This forum has quickly educated me to the fact that the BBC unashamedly follow the line of the UK government and are not in the slightest bit impartial-this came as a shock as I'd always trusted the BBC-is there no mention of the option of remaining in the article?

They don't think there are enough votes in the Commons to force a 2nd Referendum, they note @20 Lab MP's won't back that call, and the number of Tory remainers who might is <20, making the maths improbable.

Roanmore

judeboy101 wrote: »

I seem to remember a certain government party in this jurisdiction promising to abolish USC if elected. Manifestos are works of fiction. Ironically, so is the WA and the declaration on future trade.

If you remember that you may also remember that the government party you refer to does not have a majority and depend on a party who campaigned against abolishing the USC.