Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Mr.Nice Guy

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through. David Ervine once said "You cannot leave another negotiator with no bus fare home." The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

The Brexiteers would have struggled to use NI as part of their rallying cry to oppose Brexit on patriotic grounds what with businesses increasingly coming out in favour of the WA, but now along comes Gibraltar to offer precisely such an opportunity. I suspect they'll now present torpedoing the agreement as their 'patriotic duty' and frame it as plucky Blighty standing up to the continental bullies.

Econ__

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through. David Ervine once said "You cannot leave another negotiator with no bus fare home." The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

The Brexiteers would have struggled to use NI as part of their rallying cry to oppose Brexit on patriotic grounds what with businesses increasingly coming out in favour of the WA, but now along comes Gibraltar to offer precisely such an opportunity. I suspect they'll now present torpedoing the agreement as their 'patriotic duty' and frame it as plucky Blighty standing up to the continental bullies.

I don't think it makes a difference TBH. The Withdrawal Agreement probably isn't going to be put through by Brexiter votes either way.

It's almost certainly going to need significant Labour votes, which will eventually be gotten to avoid no deal. It almost certainly won't be gotten in the first vote though - but that will be far from the end of the matter.

Capt'n Midnight

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through.

I think it's been good for her.

Everyone in the UK can now see exactly why she won't be able to get a better deal. Which makes it easier for May to sell the deal she has got.

It's take it or leave it time, otherwise the choices are Remain or Pain.

Econ__

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html

Hurrache

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

Unless you have self humiliation, I'm struggling to see it?

Imreoir2

Econ__ wrote: »

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html

It's hard to understand how the political system has become so dysfunctional in the UK, the political leadership has been suggesting for well over a year that no-deal is a viable option for the UK but it is clear that there is no posibility that they could choose that course given how horrfically damaging that would be. Given the clear lack of preperation to even try to address the complications of no deal, they can never have seriously considered going down that route.

Unfortunatly it would seem that while the government inercircle are fully aware of the dire circumstances they are facing, parliament has been allowed to toddle along in self imposed ignorence for too long. They will almost certainly vote down the deal on first time of asking. The UK has been carefully building a massive humiliation for itself and it probably cannot be avoided at this stage. Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat. They do not have the ability to walk away with no-deal.

May will have to drive some painful truths home to her MP's. The UK would most likely have to capitulate to any demand the EU cares to make at this point for the sake of getting a deal through, only a glimps of which we have seen with Gibralter. Fortunatly for the UK, the EU is not likely to abuse it's position of power, but that is not likely to make the UK's humilation any easier to bear.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat.

I agree that No Deal is not a practical possibility, but just as they may vote No on the only deal in town because This Cannot Happen To Us, they my actually crash out because they can't get their heads around the new reality at all.


If you think they are being humiliated now, wait until they try asking for a deal when the supermarket shelves are already empty.

Leroy42

TM has not laid out the real consequences of a no deal at any point. Even the release of the no deal reports was attempted to be as quiet and painless as possible.

They seemed to be thinking that letting on how bad no deal would be would give the EU the advantage (of course EU already knows) and that the MPs would use it as an excuse to fight TM.

So at this point, along with selling the deal, she should be out explaining, truthfully, what the options are and what it really means.

So reject the deal, no transition, no deal scenario and what the impact. It is really odd that a government that is supposedly there for the bettterment of the country is avoiding any move to save the country from this possibility.

But it would appear that they will simply keep no deal as some sort of bogeyman, but without any real details.

TM should use Johnson call yesterday for a no deal minister to lay out, clearly and succinctly, exactly what no deal means and the costs to different regions

Econ__

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's hard to understand how the political system has become so dysfunctional in the UK, the political leadership has been suggesting for well over a year that no-deal is a viable option for the UK but it is clear that there is no posibility that they could choose that course given how horrfically damaging that would be. Given the clear lack of preperation to even try to address the complications of no deal, they can never have seriously considered going down that route.

Unfortunatly it would seem that while the government inercircle are fully aware of the dire circumstances they are facing, parliament has been allowed to toddle along in self imposed ignorence for too long. They will almost certainly vote down the deal on first time of asking. The UK has been carefully building a massive humiliation for itself and it probably cannot be avoided at this stage. Having tried to bluff their way through by building up the threat of no-deal, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are simply incapable as a country of carrying out the threat. They do not have the ability to walk away with no-deal.

May will have to drive some painful truths home to her MP's. The UK would most likely have to capitulate to any demand the EU cares to make at this point for the sake of getting a deal through, only a glimps of which we have seen with Gibralter. Fortunatly for the UK, the EU is not likely to abuse it's position of power, but that is not likely to make the UK's humilation any easier to bear.

In fairness, most MPs know that the UK can't handle no deal & have vowed to prevent it from happening. The government know this, hence their reluctance to use the prospect of no deal as a threat ahead of the first meaningful vote.

Hurrache

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

Econ__

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

The backstop won't be reopened (Jeez, lots of Irish are really insecure). The only thing that could get reopened is the Political Declaration - and that would only be for a softening of Brexit.

First Up

Hurrache wrote: »

All EU leaders on their way into the summit so far unanimous that this is the best deal Britain can ever get.

Its the only deal they will get.

Hurrache

First Up wrote: »

Its the only deal they will get.

I know, that's my point.

Water John

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

amacca

Water John wrote: »

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

Seriously? ... Wow.

Enzokk

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1066631782735519744

Water John wrote: »

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

They didn't seem to mind that it took the DUP 10 minutes to decide to back Leave though, so are they upset they took all that time?

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

In all the time you have posted on here that the EU will turn on us, has it happened once? Can you point to one instance where they have gone back on their word to Ireland and gave in to the UK position?

Enzokk

And here for anyone thinking that there will be more negotiations with the EU,

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1066635867127713793


The Mail on Sunday has this story that convinced Michael Gove to back the deal.

Michael Gove 'decided to back May's Brexit after hearing how UK would run out of clean drinking water within DAYS of No Deal'

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

Whitehall disaster planners have warned Ministers that leaving the EU without a deal could spark a national crisis as crucial chemicals used in water purification are imported to the UK from Europe.

The deliveries risk getting caught in weeks of border chaos if Britain quits the EU next March without the Prime Minister’s deal with Brussels being approved by MPs.

The vital chemicals are timed to arrive ‘just in time’ and cannot be stockpiled as they are too volatile, meaning water plants would have to turn off the taps as soon as they ran out or risk poisoning millions.

Even if this is the worse case scenario I still don't know how anyone who is elected to represent the interests of their constituents actually think about leaving the EU, nevermind without a deal. There is no scenario where the UK is better off outside the EU than inside so already they are going against their voters interests. Actively going for a no-deal is despicable when you know people will suffer.

judeboy101

Enzokk wrote: »

In all the time you have posted on here that the EU will turn on us, has it happened once? Can you point to one instance where they have gone back on their word to Ireland and gave in to the UK position?

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

He asked you for an example where they went back on their word to us, do you have one?

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

He asked you for an example where they went back on their word to us, do you have one?

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand. I've given an example.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Until the HoC votes no, and then they will go back remove backstop or water it down to the extent that it will pass, then the leaders will meet up again.

What makes you think there will be any pressure on the EU to change the terms on offer? It is obvious that the UK cannot carry out the threat of no-deal and if in a fit of hubris they allow it to happen, they will last days not weeks before they are forced to capitulate and accept the deal as is.

The UK and not the EU will be making the concessions from this point forward.

Hurrache

Pathetic example given it didn't have a negative affect on Ireland, like you insinuate. Really clutching at straws if that's all you can come up with.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

Pathetic example given it didn't have a negative affect on Ireland, like you insinuate. Really clutching at straws if that's all you can come up with.

I was asked for example, i gave one. Not my fault if it doesn't fit your narrative. A UK wide backstop hurts Irish reunification, makes Ireland a less attractive place to future fdi if uk still has access to EU.

RobMc59

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What makes you think there will be any pressure on the EU to change the terms on offer? It is obvious that the UK cannot carry out the threat of no-deal and if in a fit of hubris they allow it to happen, they will last days not weeks before they are forced to capitulate and accept the deal as is.

The UK and not the EU will be making the concessions from this point forward.

This deal may suit Ireland and I believe initially it may have appeared preferable to no deal for the UK but as is constantly being gleefully pointed out on this forum,TM appears to be capitulating to the EU so either remain or no deal is becoming more attractive .

Anthracite

judeboy101 wrote: »

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand. I've given an example.

Clutching at straws here to be honest.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

This deal may suit Ireland and I believe initially it may have appeared preferable to no deal for the UK but as is constantly being gleefully pointed out on this forum,TM appears to be capitulating to the EU so either remain or no deal is becoming more attractive .

Perfect. No deal is impossible for the UK, so that moves things further towards where we want them.

Hurrache

judeboy101 wrote: »

I was asked for example, i gave one

But you didn't!

CelticRambler

judeboy101 wrote: »

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand.

The backstop is still NI-specific; the EU has agreed to allow the NI-friendly terms of the transition to apply to the whole of the UK.