Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub

Econ__ wrote: »

The backstop won't be reopened (Jeez, lots of Irish are really insecure). The only thing that could get reopened is the Political Declaration - and that would only be for a softening of Brexit.

I'd not pay attention to Judeboy they've been saying we'll be stabbed in the back any minute now for over half a year

Dyr

Enzokk wrote: »

And here for anyone thinking that there will be more negotiations with the EU,

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1066635867127713793


The Mail on Sunday has this story that convinced Michael Gove to back the deal.

Michael Gove 'decided to back May's Brexit after hearing how UK would run out of clean drinking water within DAYS of No Deal'



Even if this is the worse case scenario I still don't know how anyone who is elected to represent the interests of their constituents actually think about leaving the EU, nevermind without a deal. There is no scenario where the UK is better off outside the EU than inside so already they are going against their voters interests. Actively going for a no-deal is despicable when you know people will suffer.

TBH a drinking water system that relies on Just in Time deliveries should be a concern for everybody in terms of its resilience rather than a brexit issue

EdgeCase

Interesting to see that Theresa May is still dragging up the claims about NHS funding in a letter written to “the nation” on 24 November 2018.

This is what worries me. You think the narrative has moved on and then the same spin from 2016 is regurgitated.

See tweet below:

https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1066620406566711297?s=21

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Back stop ni only not uk wide. They were adamant it was ni only. They changed their tune.

The whole of the UK being tied to the CU in a backstop is a concession by the UK, it is something that the Irish government wanted, but did not insist on because they thought it would have been beyond what could have been extracted from the UK government. The UK have been allowed to spin it as a negotiating victory, but the EU has wanted the closest possible relationship from the start, the UK tying itself to the CU even if no other deal can be agreed is not a loss for the EU.

You know you are failing in a negotiation if your victories are successfuly insisting that you be allowed give the other side what they want.

RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

Perfect. No deal is impossible for the UK, so that moves things further towards where we want them.

Personally I think that is incorrect-no deal may be perceived as better than the deal on offer even to reasonable people .That is the attitude to THIS deal which is infinitely inferior to remaining in the EU and is worse than a no deal brexit to some .As suggested in earlier posts,perhaps that is TMs plan,which will start with this deal being rejected and hopefully the UK remaining in the EU-the gamble is that this strategy may result in a no deal brexit.

RobMc59

Bambi wrote: »

TBH a drinking water system that relies on Just in Time deliveries should be a concern for everybody in terms of its resilience rather than a brexit issue

To suggest that the UK relies on bottled water is utter waffle.

Dyr

RobMc59 wrote: »

To suggest that the UK relies on bottled water is utter waffle.

You're the first person to mention bottled water

EdgeCase

The statement was about the availability of safe, licensed water treatment chemical supplies for treatment plants. It had nothing to do with bottled water.

RobMc59

Bambi wrote: »

You're the first person to mention bottled water

Apologies-should have read-"to suggest the UK would have to rely on bottled water is utter waffle".

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1066657106198228992

A serious lose of soft power for the UK.

An Ciarraioch

DUP could back the UK remaining in the EEA, but of course that would still leave customs unaddressed:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/dup-may-back-norway-style-brexit-deal-says-arene-foster

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1066657106198228992

A serious lose of soft power for the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

judeboy101 wrote: »

Barnier told the EU (btw, Ireland is part of the EU) that the backstop was NI only. UK told EU they wanted backstop for entire UK, EU gave into that demand. I've given an example.

What does the UK get from this deal ?

When it kicks in they get to opportunity do third party trade deals, but can't action them fully until they finally leave, due to having to comply with the EU rules till then.

During the transition period EU nationals will still have freedom of movement and the UK will follow EU rules without a say.


Remember for a new deal the national veto's kick in again.
Ireland - border / backstop.
Spain - Gibraltar
France - fishing (possibly Denmark too)
Cyrus - any defence and security rights that Turkey could ask for.
UK - Common Market , Article 50 and access to Galileo GPS
I'm not joking, the UK setup a lot of EU red lines. The irony is that the UK can't undo them now.


And if they want back in then the rules say the Euro and Schengen.
So at best they'd have to cede a lot of concessions to get some of the current exemptions back again.


https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1125/1013219-uk-eu-security/

The EU has ruled out any decision-making role for the UK when it comes to foreign and defence policy post-Brexit.
...
It is understood Cyprus, as well as Greece, are concerned that any access to EU meetings in the area of defence and security would become a precedent for Turkey to seek similar access.

BTW Cyprus probably have strong views on divided islands too.
New crossings have been opened between the Turkish and Greek sides of Cyprus - the first in eight years.

Harry Palmr

A general feeling of "move along now, nothing to see here"

An Ciarraioch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1066657106198228992

A serious lose of soft power for the UK.

And coming from a Commonwealth member that has UK bases on its territory!

Harry Palmr

As was pointed out the UK will get intelligence on the same basis the USA does re it's bases in Germany.

hotmail.com

If May thinks the vote won't pass, can she delay the vote and call an election?

RobMc59

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1066657106198228992

A serious lose of soft power for the UK.

As a Belgian MEP warned-the spectre of a rogue UK looms on the horizon-not good for anyone...

Gbear

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's hard to understand how the political system has become so dysfunctional in the UK, the political leadership has been suggesting for well over a year that no-deal is a viable option for the UK but it is clear that there is no posibility that they could choose that course given how horrfically damaging that would be. Given the clear lack of preperation to even try to address the complications of no deal, they can never have seriously considered going down that route.

As in the US, recent changes in society have exposed the fundamental weaknesses in the British democratic system.

At a time when absolute monarchies were the norm, a constitutional monarchy with parliament was a huge step forward, but we're now in a world where the UK's archaic democratic system has been left behind.

briany

hotmail.com wrote: »

If May thinks the vote won't pass, can she delay the vote and call an election?

I'm not sure I see the point at this stage. Wouldn't that just leave even less time to get everything sorted? It would be best for May, who has rejected the idea of a 2nd referendum, to hold the vote, and if it is defeated then the public and political atmosphere may rise to such a fervour that she can do a U-turn on the 2nd ref, saying that parliament cannot agree on a deal, or a no-deal, or even remaining, so it must be put back to the people.

Imreoir2

We have been hearing whispers and seeing leaks about civil service reports that outline the chaos that no-deal will cause, chaos at Dover, the lights going out in NI, and now drinking water being cut off, it has been described as armageddon but as of yet the UK government have not released any oficial information on what it expects no-deal to look like beyond some copy and paste techincal notices.

Can we expect to see some of this supposidly hair-raising information on the potential impact of no-deal Brexit being oficially released by the UK government in the run up to a vote in the Commons?

Do you think they have been sitting on this information because it is not really as bad as people suppose and they fear that releasing it will further damage support for the deal because no-deal is viable for the UK, do you think it is so bad that they fear a backlash from finaly telling the truth, or have they been holding back so that they can drop it before the vote and sway MPs to support a deal?

CelticRambler

Water John wrote: »

The Leave Campaign are taking offence that t took EU Leaders all of 38 mins to agree to the deal. They simply don't understand that within the EU, all homework is done.

Reporters/contributors to both Sky and RTE also made a reference to the speed of the Council signing off on the deal this morning, completely ignoring the long months of preparation that preceded it!

But once again, this one episode in the saga highlights the enormous gulf between the two parties. On the one side: a group of 27 countries (including some with agitated regions of their own) giving a clear mandate to one person to negotiate terms that are agreeable to all 27; job done. On the other: a single parliament made up of two major parties that can't come to any kind of agreement even within their own ranks.

Who knew taking back control could be so complicated ... :rolleyes:

LeinsterDub

hotmail.com wrote: »

If May thinks the vote won't pass, can she delay the vote and call an election?

No she needs a 2/3 vote in the HoC. Of course parliament can't be bound by a previous parliament so they could repeal the fixed term parliament act by a simple majority i believe

Inquitus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No she needs a 2/3 vote in the HoC

Labour would probably vote for that mind.

Water John

Seems to be a couple of versions of that Gove story. Last week it was about 2 ingredients for Mars bars that had to be JIT. I even checked the ingredients on a Mars bar, none on it that I thought would have a short shelf life. Having a knowledge of water treatment cannot think on any that have a very short shelf life.
So are these porkies being put out to give Gove some political cover?

LeinsterDub

Water John wrote: »

Seems to be a couple of versions of that Gove story. Last week it was about 2 ingredients for Mars bars that had to be JIT. I even checked the ingredients on a Mars bar, none on it that I thought would have a short shelf life. Having a knowledge of water treatment cannot think on any that have a very short shelf life.
So are these porkies being put out to give Gove some political cover?

Shelf life has nothing to do with JIT

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Shelf life has nothing to do with JIT

The catchall solution to a breakdown in JIT is to stockpile prior to Brexit day, the story being that the chemical in question cannot be stockpiled.

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No she needs a 2/3 vote in the HoC. Of course parliament can't be bound by a previous parliament so they could repeal the fixed term parliament act by a simple majority i believe

This.

Parliament is sovereign so can do damn well what it wants.

Like the way it pushed through every other EU treaty in the past when it suited them.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

Seems to be a couple of versions of that Gove story. Last week it was about 2 ingredients for Mars bars that had to be JIT. I even checked the ingredients on a Mars bar, none on it that I thought would have a short shelf life. Having a knowledge of water treatmentcannot think on any that have a very short shelf life.
So are these porkies being put out to give Gove some political cover?

Username checks out.


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Gove is living in a post facts facts world where he's trying to dilute his pro-brexit stance to fit with today's narrative: and any straw he can clutch at will do.

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Any clips of BoJo at the DUP Árd Fheis?

Water John

JIT was used as the products allegedly couldn't be stored, so stock piling would not be an option to JIT. Sounds like a porkie. The only product that would qualify in water treatment is Ozone and you manufacture that onsite if required.
Gove wanted cover as to why he changed his mind on No Deal Brexit.
I'm saying his story has no basis, pathetic fig leaf.