Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Kermit.de.frog

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

flutered

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We're in the bizarre position where SF are arguing for a deal that will probably put the North's constitutional question back in the cupboard for a couple of decades while the DUP seem hell bent on making it an issue and indeed are risking breaking up the UK if there's no Britain-EU deal.

sf are playing at slowly, slowly catche monkey

ilovesmybrick

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Just listening to the Irish times podcast today. On top of Coveney on the interview earlier barely holding in his frustration, Fintan O'Toole seems on the verge of going wtf are they doing. I know O'Toole can be...passionate, on a topic, but when you consider Ireland has so much to lose on this and then you have major politicians and commentators on the verge of losing it because the UK doesn't understand their own bloody country I'm amazed that the negotiations have actually gone this far without collapse.

Can we send Westminster the junior cert history section of our old textbooks, because a quick read of those once over the past two years might have helped them understand the serious issues, in their own damn country.

O'Toole was excellent on The View last week too. You can really sense his frustration at times.

I'm not a 'believer' in all things O'Toole, but I think he's captured the essence of the problem of Brexit (a display of English Nationalism) really well in pieces he's written and interviews he's given too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3tkNQBiBB0

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

While at the same time The Telegraph is reporting she has said "now is the time" to secure a Brexit deal with the EU, as she arrives in Brussels for a summit where she will put her proposals to the bloc`s leaders.


....and people wonder how the British public cannot see what is coming their way in the event of a no deal !

flutered

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We're in the bizarre position where SF are arguing for a deal that will probably put the North's constitutional question back in the cupboard for a couple of decades while the DUP seem hell bent on making it an issue and indeed are risking breaking up the UK if there's no Britain-EU deal.

sf are playing at slowly, slowly catche monkey

charlie14 wrote: »

zapitastas wrote: »

The absolute worst of them were taken into the fold and allowed to operate with impunity around Armagh and down.

If that is where they went then it would part explain a lot of what subsequently went on in that area. Especially south Armagh.
I was then living in Donegal and after 1970, bad and all as the UDR were in the border areas there, they were better than the B Specials. With special emphasis on the B.

better known in the border regions as the b men, more nasty than the nasty party

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What are the best twitter accounts to watch tonight?

Tony Connelly will usually have any breaking developments, with Faisal Islam the best UK counterpart. Laura Kuenssberg will also be quick, but nothing by way of analysis.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC reporting that Theresa May offered NOTHING NEW in her presentation according to an EU official.

What the...?

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1052631057324011527?s=19


But they are saying she's apparently considering the offer of the extension
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1052638560061292544?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

From the post meeting press conference - President of the European Parliament

Despite conceding Mrs May looked keen on striking a deal with the EU, he said the content of what she is proposing is "not acceptable" for the EU, explaining the prime minister didn't offer anything new in terms of content that could bring the bloc to sign her proposal.

He continued: "The European Parliament wants to reach a deal because it's a positive things for both the UK and the EU - but not at any cost.

"If the UK won't agree on avoiding a hard border in Ireland, the EU Parliament will vote against the Brexit deal proposed.

"I have listened to Mrs May with attention and I believe her words were more positive than the one she said in Salzburg.

"She gave messages of desire of reaching an agreement, the political tone was right but I didn't find substantial changes on the contents of her speech."

Mr Tajani said Mrs May said it is vital for the UK to maintain Great Britain united, but this stance could clash with the EU's proposal of maintaining Ireland without a hard border.

He continued: "We can't accept our single market to be torn apart, we defend the unity of the freedoms it grants, of movement and of goods."

Mr Tajani added the political will of striking an agreement shown by Mrs May makes him look positively at the chances of avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

However, the EU is not ready to step back from its stance on the hard border in Ireland.

He said: "The key point is the backstop. We want to protect the Irish Republic. For us that's the priority."

Mr Tajani added he is in favour of prolonging the transition period, making it three-year long rather than two-year long.

Rhineshark

joe40 wrote: »

But how do you check if they are irish or UK citizens without border checks

Pro-EU, RoI and the UK had a delicate set of gentleman's agreements that meant the two countries would stay aligned in terms of who they let in (and thus who could get to the other country). Post-WW2, the UK needed immigrants, many being Irish and also many Commonwealth to rebuild the country, so they weren't overly worried. And it's not like RoI was a centre for immigration or anything so it seemed to work.

During EU, both countries were aligned, etc. Overwrote the CTA more or less but the CTA remained under it.

Post-EU, the plan, such as it is, is not to particularly worry about immigration to the UK via Ireland but to use employers as immigration agents, essentially. No paperwork, no job. Therefore, bar a burgeoning black market, it won't matter because illegals will be locked out of British society even if they get onto British soil.

Tbh, if and when things get as bad as they undoubtedly will in a No Deal scenario, I entirely expect the CTA to become a target for populists, be it due to "unfettered" EUmmigration or due to RoI being blamed for Brexit being a disastor for daring to stick to our guns when it was unhelpful to the UK.

flutered

Leroy42 wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A no-deal crash out in March would be absolutely and immediately catastrophic for the UK. They cannot do it, and any threat to do it is an empty threat.

Im any sane debate it would be an empty threat, but I really think there are plenty of voters and MPs that have convinced themselves that the EU is the root cause of all their problems and as such getting out of it anyway you can is the least worst option.

Many seem to have accepted that there will be a hit economically, for the short term, but that the advantages outweight any losses.

On that basis, why would they not opt for a crash out?  They seem to be of the opinion that a crash out is no more than simply not being a member of the club, that everything else will continue as before.  

Now, whether that group is enough to bring it about it the question.

they also live in the belif that if they crash out, it will help in the break up of the eu, this is their ultimate wet dream

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

Hurrache

Bit of backstory as to why Britain have become so untrustworthy on the backstop, some feel they were tricked, basically blaming others for their own failings
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1052519655468875777?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

Rhineshark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

More to the point, will the EU buy having a fractious semi-member with its economy sinking into the Thames for an indeterminate period where they can drop out at any moment in return for screwing Ireland and essentially wasting two years.

I doubt it.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1052635295814959111


Worst of all worlds for DUP and Brexiteers by the sounds of it!!

They will and rightly so. There must be an election before June 2023 but it is likely that there would be an election before then. Adding a year to the transition period further jeopardises Brexit as the Brexiteers and the DUP would probably lose their influence given that the country is slowly shifting towards Remain. Time is of the essence for them.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly will usually have any breaking developments, with Faisal Islam the best UK counterpart. Laura Kuenssberg will also be quick, but nothing by way of analysis.

Cheers. As Vinnie might have said, 'the tweet machine is busy tonight'.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion

UK arguing for special status with regards to the Government Procurement Agreement within the WTO. However, some diplomatic efforts (or lack thereof) have been noticed...

Shock horror, interdependence goes beyond the EU, I wonder how long before the Leave.WTO campaign complains about this infraction into the sovereignty of the UK?

Important to note, by the way, that it isn't just 'little' Moldova that has issues with how the UK is hoping to sneak into global administration - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/u-s-is-said-to-stall-u-k-bid-to-stay-in-1-7-trillion-market

An Ciarraioch

As predicted, no new summit unless and until there is a breakthrough between the interlocutors:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1052644812296519680

flutered

Mezcita wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To my litany of disasters earlier, add: sterling collapses, emergency currency controls to stop a flood of capital fleeing the country, bank runs, stock market chaos.

This will happen before Brexit day just as soon as the market realizes no deal is coming.

Sterling tanking could actually be the thing which forces the Government to do a deal.

Possibly best suited for the Gambling forum but shouldn't we all therefore be shorting Sterling?   Meaning, the vast majority of us in here seem to think that the UK is about to drive off the cliff.   The markets think otherwise from the current look of it.  

Kind of reminds me of Brexit's odds of actually happening a few weeks before the vote.  They got that wrong...

the main players got it very right re the tip offs from the exit polls

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/shufflepaw/status/1052634571345399808


VERY interesting point.

How can the UK do a free trade deal with USA if there is a frictionless border on the island of Ireland!?

They can't unless NI is treated as a seperate market and customs regime as the rest of the UK and refuses entry to NI any goods that are incompatible with the rules of the single market.
The Border has to be in the Irish sea with customs checks on freight at the ports.

You can see why the DUP don't like this idea.

Rhineshark

Hurrache wrote: »

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Tbh, I reckon the US is ready to have the UK for breakfast at its earliest convenience, given a desperate and much smaller country begging for a deal and publically dependant on it being made is basically about Trump's level of "making a deal". Even he can probably manage not to screw that up.

Given Trump doesn't think a deal is good unless it is palpably much worse for the other side, it won't go well for the UK.

Akrasia

Hurrache wrote: »

Prescott earlier said that he thinks the US are ready to deal, possibly related. But at this point I'm cynical and would not be surprised it's yet more kite flying and water muddying.

Who's more untrustworthy, the Trump government, or the spindoctors in the UK trying to play their foes off each other.

flutered

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

farmchoice wrote: »

that was very good from coveney, im no FG supporter but i really think the government and covneney in particular are doing a stellar job. honorable mention to FF as well for not trying to upset the apple cart.

Indeed. It must be nice to live somewhere where the two main parties put the welfare of the nation ahead of their own agendas and warring factions.

and something the uk could well do to learn from

Hurrache

Rhineshark wrote: »

Tbh, I reckon the US is ready to have the UK for breakfast at its earliest convenience, given a desperate and much smaller country begging for a deal and publically dependant on it being made is basically about Trump's level of "making a deal". Even he can probably manage not to screw that up.

Given Trump doesn't think a deal is good unless it is palpably much worse for the other side, it won't go well for the UK.

The US and Australia will carve them to pieces in any negotiation based on that Australian document earlier today in the thread.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They will and rightly so. There must be an election before June 2023 but it is likely that there would be an election before then. Adding a year to the transition period further jeopardises Brexit as the Brexiteers and the DUP would probably lose their influence given that the country is slowly shifting towards Remain. Time is of the essence for them.

The option to remain ends on 30/03/2019. After this, they're out (unless A50 is extended to allow them to hold an election or referendum)

An extension to the withdrawal period just means the UK are non voting passengers in the EU for longer before they get cast into the deep ocean of WTO terms or begin negotiations on EU accession as a 3rd country.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

The option to remain ends on 30/03/2019. After this, they're out (unless A50 is extended to allow them to hold an election or referendum)

An extension to the withdrawal period just means the UK are non voting passengers in the EU for longer before they get cast into the deep ocean of WTO terms or begin negotiations on EU accession as a 3rd country.

Barnier made it clear that Britain can change its mind until the end of the transition period and that the EU will allow them to remain.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Barnier made it clear that Britain can change its mind until the end of the transition period and that the EU will allow them to remain.

Really? Is that legally sound? (Cause you can guarantee it would be challenged in court)

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

Really? Is that legally sound? (Cause you can guarantee it would be challenged in court)

Well, if Barnier says it you'd have to assume that he could deliver. Basically, in the context of staying in the CU and the SM, he said that if Britain shifted its red lines during the transition period then the EU would shift its red lines to accommodate them in remaining.

flutered

road_high wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Aussies damn the prospects of a UK trade deal with faint praise:

https://threader.app/thread/1052458691629338626

Jesus the vultures are really circling...and Australia is supposedly one of the many Commonwealth countries the teary eyed Empire nostalgists view as almost family! With friends like those...lol
The UK is a small fish in a big pond but they've really never outgrown their own state of self importance.

their self importance is a mile high, also they cannot understand that a european politician says what he means and means what they say