Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1068533485470736384

This MP some how thinks the UK are going to get a better deal than the SM and the CU while being outside the EU.

Now if you'll excuse me I need to get so blindly drunk I'll forget this level of stupid for fear if I remember it, it would infect my mind. Rotting it from the inside out

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1068533485470736384

This MP some how thinks the UK are going to get a better deal than the SM and the CU while being outside the EU.

Now if you'll excuse me I need to get so blindly drunk I'll forget this level of stupid for fear if I remember it, it would infect my mind. Rotting it from the inside out

Problem is there is no obligation on the EU to sign a trade deal with the UK at all. They might be perfectly happy to carry on with the customs union arrangement for years.

Not sure Barclay fully understands how trade deals work. For one to be signed, both sides have to actively want a trade deal and think it is a good idea. If one side wants one and the other doesn't, then there is no trade deal.

tuxy

Strazdas wrote: »

Not sure Barclay fully understands how trade deals work. For one to be signed, both sides have to actively want a trade deal and think it is a good idea. If one side wants one and the other doesn't, then there is no trade deal.

So things have changed since the days of the opium wars?

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Problem is there is no obligation on the EU to sign a trade deal with the UK at all. They might be perfectly happy to carry on with the customs union arrangement for years.

Forever!


The whole "Norway" deal they talk about, as if it is an off-the-shelf thing, is a "temporary" arrangement where Norway stalled during the process of joining the EU.


The UK could very easily end up in some "stalled" status on their way out.

LeinsterDub

Strazdas wrote: »

Problem is there is no obligation on the EU to sign a trade deal with the UK at all.

That isn't the problem. The problem is it's impossible what is a better trade deal than the SM and the CU? Do they expect the EU to pay them for trade?

irishash

funkey_monkey wrote: »

No she hasn't depending on your source and their interpretation:


https://www.rte.ie/amp/1014374/

The interview she gave to BBC is clearly talking about a second vote in the commons, not a re-run of the referendum. She has always said a second referendum was off the cards.

From https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1129/1014077-brexit/

"British Prime Minister Theresa May has pushed back against calls for a second Brexit referendum, warning it would mean unpicking the deal agreed with Brussels.

Appearing before senior MPs, Mrs May refused to be drawn on what would happen if the Commons votes down the Withdrawal Agreement in the crunch vote on 11 December.

However, she insisted a so-called "people's vote" was not an option as it could not be held before 29 March 2019 when Britain leaves the EU."

Also this from October - https://www.thejournal.ie/theresa-may-brexit-speech-3-4265546-Oct2018/

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, one Leaver claims EFTA members have been able to eliminate customs barriers since last year, though if Turkey also have this right, their border remains notoriously gridlocked:

http://twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/1067152681310015489

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Posters have said they can`t get past the 800 years of abuse and occupation at the hands of the British,fair enough, that is understandable.
Your outraged themed reply of-"how dare you!" to my earlier post leads me to believe you can`t get over what has happened in the past but just won`t admit it.
As far as me having a`poor us` or `treat us with more respect`attitude -utter waffle.In the many happy times I`ve spent in Ireland with friends and family I have unfortunately encountered people who have a problem with me purely because I`m British-even been pulled up by an "unofficial checkpoint" on the back roads of Dundalk because I`m British-It has`nt stopped me going to visit friends and family. .If the moderators say I should`nt post on here because I`m abusive or offensive,fair enough-but you won`t stop me just because you think only Irish people should post.

Ah there you are again with the poor me approach


You read something into a post that didn't exist. Your inferring something I never said. You are now claiming I said you should not post here because your not Irish

Will you give over it's tiring. Your making a show of yourself with zero facts. No one has it out for your or the UK, you are being called up on the baseless claims you are making, nothing more.


Something that should have happened two years ago with Boris and farage and perhaps we wouldn't have this mess.

People need to start being called up on the lies , yourself included.

And continue to post here but will you at least make it factual and enough with the oppressed others guff it's not washing .

foxyladyxx

listermint wrote: »

Ah there you are again with the poor me approach


You read something into a post that didn't exist. Your inferring something I never said. You are now claiming I said you should not post here because your not Irish

Will you give over it's tiring. Your making a show of yourself with zero facts. No one has it out for your or the UK, you are being called up on the baseless claims you are making, nothing more.


Something that should have happened two years ago with Boris and farage and perhaps we wouldn't have this mess.

People need to start being called up on the lies , yourself included.

And continue to post here but will you at least make it factual and enough with the oppressed others guff it's not washing .

Leave it go ..Don't spoil the thread

listermint

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Leave it go ..Don't spoil the thread

Excuse me. I won't allow a poster put words in my mouth and make me out to be an anglophobe . And stop moderating the thread.

Thanks .

An Ciarraioch

Gove now backing the Norway option:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1068619217698734080

sink

Great video by Stephen Fry. Pitty it wasn't released 2 1/2 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o

lawred2

sink wrote: »

Great video by Stephen Fry. Pitty it wasn't released 2 1/2 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o

Asif the Brexiteering sort would have paid a blind bit of notice to what Stephen Fry had to say

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove now backing the Norway option:

That backstabbing snake ?

Norway means Four Freedoms, Hard Border, continued payments to EU, no say in EU rules. Red lines to beat the band

But it gives back control of fishing. But since local Scottish fishermen only have 1% of the quota it won't do much for them. In NI one boat will still have 50% of the quota. And besides most of fish caught in UK waters are exported. And most of the fish they eat is imported.

Infini

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Eh, no, nobody believes that, not even him.



No Deal Brexit is bad for the EU, so of course they will do what it takes to avoid it.

No deal is bad for everyone but the question in this regard is if the British Government is truly incompetent enough to actually crashout wether by choice or accident.

The question really being asked is are they really going to go "full retard" and cause such a self defeating mess or will the HoC actually come to its senses and realise remaing is the only option and bring an end to this farce.

FrancieBrady

Infini wrote: »

No deal is bad for everyone but the question in this regard is if the British Government is truly incompetent enough to actually crashout wether by choice or accident.

The question really being asked is are they really going to go "full retard" and cause such a self defeating mess or will the HoC actually come to its senses and realise remaing is the only option and bring an end to this farce.

Can we stop the 'by accident' nonsense. They know the consequences of what they are doing. There is no 'accident' about it.

Capt'n Midnight

tuxy wrote: »

So things have changed since the days of the opium wars?

Don't get me started.

Back then China was susceptible to gunboat diplomacy.

Today they have aircraft carriers with aircraft, and ballistic anti-carrier missiles. You can argue about defences against sea skimming missiles, but the Chinese plan is to go over the top and nuke you from orbit.

India has carriers too. And Pakistan has nukes. And despite all the conventional weapons the US and UK are still stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq. (US companies are cleaning up , are the UK ?)

The UK is no longer the workshop of the world, that mantle passed back to China.
The UK has niche positions in high tech, but Dyson & Co. mean that like the toy I bought in Aldi (German) it's trending to "Designed in the UK"


But one of the early polls suggested that a third of OAP's would be quite OK with a family member loosing their job over Brexit. I can't understand that level of "I'm alright Jack" with their triple lock pensions. It's a different culture over there.

Rain Ascending

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1068533485470736384

This MP some how thinks the UK are going to get a better deal than the SM and the CU while being outside the EU.

And he's not just any old backbencher MP. He's a minister.

And not just any old minister. He's the new Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union! Yes, Raab's and Davis' successor...

You couldn't make it up.

Thargor

Really starting to get entertaining now:

https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1068080900037099522

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove now backing the Norway option:

The trouble with the Norway option at least according to James O'Brien is two fold firstly the entire purpose of the EFTA is to allow counties move toward EU membership not away from it and also that each country has a veto over decisions and would the likes of Norway be happy to give the UK a veto given their past behavior in the EU and the fact that they would only be using the EFTA as the 'any port in a storm option'

Calina

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

Iderown

Calina wrote: »

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

Quite so, Calina.


Something from UK government that is worth a quick look is:


How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU with no deal
Guidance on how to prepare for Brexit if there's no deal.



Most of the guidance notes were uploaded in mid-September to mid-October.
The most recent is one on 28 November. They are very general in nature.



One that interests me concerns the North-South electricity grid interconnector:
Guidance - Trading electricity if there’s no Brexit deal - Published 12 October 2018


I have personal bad memories of the power cuts here in NI during the politically motivated action here in 1974.



Extract from the "Guidance" above:

Government or the Northern Ireland Utility Regulator will act to seek to ensure adequate generation capacity is in place, as far as possible through a competitive procurement process involving existing generation and new generation investment alongside demand side measures.

"demand side measures" could well imply power cuts for NI.


The time deadline of April 2019 is much too close for us to expect sensible action on this matter. I bet that similar holds for other "Guidances"

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

I think the penny is finally beginning to drop that you can't always get what you want-the only problem is I believe it's also dawning on people that remaining is a better option and the UK isn't as important in the world as it thinks-so a no to the TM deal will hopefully mean remaining as the whole country(minus the torys and fat cats)see the folly of a no deal brexit imo.

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

Asif the Brexiteering sort would have paid a blind bit of notice to what Stephen Fry had to say

The hardcore lot? Most definitely not. However, moderates who genuinely don't know how to vote would likely find Fry to be a trustworthy and informed source. I know several people who were unsure and often, simply chose not to vote at all.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTech/status/1068636806017662977

I'm re-watching the West Wing and they refer to dumping the bad news stories that aren't a big deal as dumping the garbage. This is what happening here. Remember when losing access to the Galileo project either wouldn't happen or would be such a outrage the it would be an international incident. Well now they are adopting the bender (of Futurama fame) attitude we'll build our own satellites and rockets with black jack and hookers

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think the penny is finally beginning to drop that you can't always get what you want-the only problem is I believe it's also dawning on people that remaining is a better option and the UK isn't as important in the world as it thinks-so a no to the TM deal will hopefully mean remaining as the whole country(minus the torys and fat cats)see the folly of a no deal brexit imo.

I'm not sure that the UK remaining is in the EU's best interests at this stage. A large rump of MPs and voters have hardened their Brexiteer positions and have become emboldened. They will continue to pick away the UK's membership and frustrate progress for the EU as a whole. An ordered untying would be better for long term cohesion within the EU.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure that the UK remaining is in the EU's best interests at this stage. A large rump of MPs and voters have hardened their Brexiteer positions and have become emboldened. They will continue to pick away the UK's membership and frustrate progress for the EU as a whole. An ordered untying would be better for long term cohesion within the EU.

The real danger for the UK leaving with a hard brexit or even a soft one transitioning to a full exit is the prospect of what the vultures currently circling would do with the country. There are clear indications that the NHS would be up for sale, that standards wouldn't as much slip as be burned and that the country would become a tax haven/money laundering pit. There are upsides, but not ones that the vast majority of the population would like.

Water John

Not sure if Brexiteer MPs are emboldened. They seem to be scattering. Mogg and Baker can't get 48 votes, Fox, Hunt and Gove running off in different directions, either supporting TM or looking at Norway style Deals.
There may be plenty angry people but no leaders anymore.

The large Tory group that won't support TM's Deal are either Remainers or soft Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

The real danger for the UK leaving with a hard brexit or even a soft one transitioning to a full exit is the prospect of what the vultures currently circling would do with the country. There are clear indications that the NHS would be up for sale, that standards wouldn't as much slip as be burned and that the country would become a tax haven/money laundering pit. There are upsides, but not ones that the vast majority of the population would like.

That's their problem. An orderly, long transition would give Ireland time to find new markets and to steal some of the UK's service industry. It would be great if the UK stayed and became committed to the cause but I can't see that happening. If they stay, they will continue to cause trouble.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

Not sure if Brexiteer MPs are emboldened. They seem to be scattering. Mogg and Baker can't get 48 votes, Fox, Hunt and Gove running off in different directions, either supporting TM or looking at Norway style Deals.
There may be plenty angry people but no leaders anymore.

The large Tory group that won't support TM's Deal are either Remainers or soft Brexit.

Even today, 30% of voters would support leaving with no deal, never mind those who want to leave with a deal. That sentiment isn't going to go away.