Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Jacob will simply retire to his villa on the Riviera.

Exactly.

I suspect that after Brexit is secured that Farage and JRM could fade out of public life having achieved their lifes focus, the re-ignition of the British Empire. They will leave it to others to actually implement it.

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Completely overblown. Despite FPTP Britain, with the exception of NI, remains a democratic and stable society. I do think that much of the UK's eurosceptism will wash out through the generations but that will take, well, generations.

Surely the level of Euro-scepticism in subsequent generations of UK citizens will depend on what form the EU takes in coming years.

There has long been this idea that as the older generations die off, the younger generations with their more liberal, progressive ideas will make their society a more liberal and progressive place, but what seems to happen in actuality is that the younger people just become more conservative and traditional, what they would call 'sensible', as they age.

But more than that, it seems like Euro-scepticism is a thread long-woven into the British psyche. I don't know if it's something that'll simply wash out.

PopePalpatine

Strazdas wrote: »

Dr North over at the eureferendum website seems to have completely lost the plot, predicting that Brexiteers will turn to terrorism and civil war if Brexit is not implemented

In fairness, all it takes is some incel manchild to steal a parent's car and drive into some pedestrians.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

Surely the level of Euro-scepticism in subsequent generations of UK citizens will depend on what form the EU takes in coming years.

There has long been this idea that as the older generations die off, the younger generations with their more liberal, progressive ideas will make their society a more liberal and progressive place, but what seems to happen in actuality is that the younger people just become more conservative and traditional, what they would call 'sensible', as they age.

But more than that, it seems like Euro-scepticism is a thread long-woven into the British psyche. I don't know if it's something that'll simply wash out.

That's possible but I do think that younger generations are more exposed to alternative viewpoints than older generations. I would imagine that the readerships of The Telegraph and The Express, for example, are mostly over 50. I don't think that many younger people are reading them or will do so in the future.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would encourage the EU to make it as difficult as possible. Two reasons. As an example to others and to wound them as much as possible without inflicting economic self-harm. If the opportunity presents itself, you should wound a competitor.

The UK will be an important trading partner. Impoverishing them will make the EU poorer too.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

Surely the level of Euro-scepticism in subsequent generations of UK citizens will depend on what form the EU takes in coming years.

There has long been this idea that as the older generations die off, the younger generations with their more liberal, progressive ideas will make their society a more liberal and progressive place, but what seems to happen in actuality is that the younger people just become more conservative and traditional, what they would call 'sensible', as they age.

But more than that, it seems like Euro-scepticism is a thread long-woven into the British psyche. I don't know if it's something that'll simply wash out.

It depends what you mean by Euroscepticism. In the broadest sense, it probably long predates their membership of the EEC - in that case, it is more they and their hang ups that are the problem rather than the institution of the EU.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

It depends what you mean by Euroscepticism. In the broadest sense, it probably long predates their membership of the EEC - in that case, it is more they and their hang ups that are the problem rather than the institution of the EU.

I think this is because those alive pre 1973 had very strong memories of WW2 and so a lot communicated distrust to their offspring, those that are in power now.

In 20 years time, those in power are more likely to have grown up in a period where there was largely positive experiences of being members of the union.

Unless, bitterness, acrimony and conflict are the key traits of future interactions.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK will be an important trading partner. Impoverishing them will make the EU poorer too.

Indeed, which is why not inflicting self-harm would be important. An example of what I'm talking about is the Gallileo row. The EU naturally intends to kick the UK out and is refusing to refund funds that Britain contributed. Nothing personal, just business. As a prime example of how many in Britain view the EU, here is The Sun's comment on the matter:

"THE EU’s repugnant arrogance in excluding us from the Galileo security satellite should open even Remainers’ eyes. Brussels is prepared to endanger millions to teach Brexit Britain a lesson.Last year there was outrage at the merest hint of us using our security strength as a bargaining chip, even as the Government ruled it out.German-backed EU bureaucrats are doing far worse.So be it. We are Europe’s main security power. They have much to lose.Theresa May is demanding back the £1billion we put into this system.But that is chicken feed next to our £39billion divorce bill. She must insist not a penny is paid until we are reinstated in Galileo and a trade deal is signed.We were naive to imagine Brussels would be a friendly partner after Brexit.Its powerful bureaucrats are now nakedly and dangerously hostile."

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed, which is why not inflicting self-harm would be important. An example of what I'm talking about is the Gallileo row. The EU naturally intends to kick the UK out and is refusing to refund funds that Britain contributed. Nothing personal, just business. As a prime example of how many in Britain view the EU, here is The Sun's comment on the matter:

"THE EU’s repugnant arrogance in excluding us from the Galileo security satellite should open even Remainers’ eyes. Brussels is prepared to endanger millions to teach Brexit Britain a lesson.Last year there was outrage at the merest hint of us using our security strength as a bargaining chip, even as the Government ruled it out.German-backed EU bureaucrats are doing far worse.So be it. We are Europe’s main security power. They have much to lose.Theresa May is demanding back the £1billion we put into this system.But that is chicken feed next to our £39billion divorce bill. She must insist not a penny is paid until we are reinstated in Galileo and a trade deal is signed.We were naive to imagine Brussels would be a friendly partner after Brexit.Its powerful bureaucrats are now nakedly and dangerously hostile."

The most amazing thing about this is that in a world where information is so easily accessed, that many will take the Sun at their word and believe this to be the case.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

The most amazing thing about this is that in a world where information is so easily accessed, that many will take the Sun at their word and believe this to be the case.

Yes, tripe swallowed whole. You get the same rubbish in The Telegraph and The Express. Of course, there's nothing stopping people not buying these papers but they continue to buy them.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yes, tripe swallowed whole. You get the same rubbish in The Telegraph and The Express. Of course, there's nothing stopping people not buying these papers but they continue to buy them.

The numbers buying all papers are dwindling.



Of course, the propensity for misinformation and manipulation is even greater in digital media so I'm not expecting any moment of uniform awareness any time soon.
I think it is quite dangerous in fact and is likely to get worse as even people who think they are informed don't realise that they are in some form of echo chamber unbeknownst to themselves.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would encourage the EU to make it as difficult as possible. Two reasons. As an example to others and to wound them as much as possible without inflicting economic self-harm. If the opportunity presents itself, you should wound a competitor.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So making business difficult for a competitor equates to religious fundamentalism? You'll have to explain that.

Firstly, your use of the phrase "as an example to others" can be interpreted as "our way is the One True Path and if you don't follow it, you should be punished" (as opposed to the simpler, less fundamentalist "you will burn in Hell for your foolish sinfulness" which is what most forecasters are proclaiming).

Secondly, saying the EU should "wound a competitor". That is exactly the same "them vs us" mentality that has the UK (and the US) in its current position, and is neither socially responsible nor economically justified. Sure, there are some businesses that go all out to wound or kill their competition, but the most successful usually engage in a fair fight. That works at a micro level, where local [insert any SME] coordinates or collaborates with their competitors to share days off or sudden, excessive demand or complementary areas of experience, and it works the same at the macro, global level.

The UK is not, and will never be, a competitor to the EU in any sense. It is a sovereign state (contrary to the oft-repeated Brexiteer claims) that has been - until now - part of a socio-economic club with considerable membership benefits.

Folkstonian

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would encourage the EU to make it as difficult as possible. Two reasons. As an example to others and to wound them as much as possible without inflicting economic self-harm. If the opportunity presents itself, you should wound a competitor.

That’s quite troubling language you have elected to use which to my mind puts you in the same bracket as the ‘extreme brexiteers’ who apparently believe the EU is a strategic enemy. Two sides to the same coin.

Regardless of what form Brexit takes on Britain and the EU will still share the same fundamental values and interests vis a vis the rest of the world and the complex challenges posed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, China etc

Talk of ‘wounding as much as possible’ a friendly country and a geographic neighbour, especially given the way the rest of the world is right now, is just utterly terrifying.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

Firstly, your use of the phrase "as an example to others" can be interpreted as "our way is the One True Path and if you don't follow it, you should be punished" (as opposed to the simpler, less fundamentalist "you will burn in Hell for your foolish sinfulness" which is what most forecasters are proclaiming).

Secondly, saying the EU should "wound a competitor". That is exactly the same "them vs us" mentality that has the UK (and the US) in its current position, and is neither socially responsible nor economically justified. Sure, there are some businesses that go all out to wound or kill their competition, but the most successful usually engage in a fair fight. That works at a micro level, where local [insert any SME] coordinates or collaborates with their competitors to share days off or sudden, excessive demand or complementary areas of experience, and it works the same at the macro, global level.

The UK is not, and will never be, a competitor to the EU in any sense. It is a sovereign state (contrary to the oft-repeated Brexiteer claims) that has been - until now - part of a socio-economic club with considerable membership benefits.

Frankly, your comparison of the EU's need to ensure that Brexit is not seen as a positive by member countries with biblical nonsense is extremely tenuous at best.

Anyway, how can you possibly say that the UK will never be a competitor to the EU? You do realise that London is losing jobs to Frankfurt and Dublin as we speak?

CelticRambler

briany wrote: »

There has long been this idea that as the older generations die off, the younger generations with their more liberal, progressive ideas will make their society a more liberal and progressive place, but what seems to happen in actuality is that the younger people just become more conservative and traditional, what they would call 'sensible', as they age.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's possible but I do think that younger generations are more exposed to alternative viewpoints than older generations. I would imagine that the readerships of The Telegraph and The Express, for example, are mostly over 50. I don't think that many younger people are reading them or will do so in the future.

What briany describes has been found to be the case in real-life studies, possibly because younger people are facing a more uncertain future than their parents and therefore seek reassurance in a more rigidly-defined social code. And while the readership of print media may be declining, many young people - most, in my experience - get their news in bite-sized, sensational snippets liked and shared and re-tweeted through social media. There, we're back to the polar opposites: stories can be voted up or down according to the user's subjective opinion about the topic, but rarely graded for the quality of the journalism.

Professor Moriarty

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s quite troubling language you have elected to use which to my mind puts you in the same bracket as the ‘extreme brexiteers’ who apparently believe the EU is a strategic enemy. Two sides to the same coin.

Regardless of what form Brexit takes on Britain and the EU will still share the same fundamental values and interests vis a vis the rest of the world and the complex challenges posed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, China etc

Talk of ‘wounding as much as possible’ a friendly country and a geographic neighbour, especially given the way the rest of the world is right now, is just utterly terrifying.

How about the various threats the UK have made to the EU in the past two years? What about the spiteful rhetoric across the media? What about the British Foreign Minister's nasty jibes in and out of office? And so on. If the UK is a friendly country, I haven't seen much evidence.

I'm talking about taking advantage of the UK's weakness not to be uneccessarily punitive but to promote the EU's economic interests. And I would expect the UK to do the same. That doesn't mean not having a collaborative relationship when it suits both parties.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Frankly, your comparison of the EU's need to ensure that Brexit is not seen as a positive by member countries with biblical nonsense is extremely tenuous at best.

You are the one talking about punishment and wounding. Those are sentiments straight out of the Koran, the Torah and the Old Testament ...

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Anyway, how can you possibly say that the UK will never be a competitor to the EU? You do realise that London is losing jobs to Frankfurt and Dublin as we speak?

Yep. And any London job that goes to Frankfurt is lost to Dublin. Same as the EMA and the EYO and dozens of other offices and agencies that have not relocated to Dublin. It's all part of the fair fight - accepting that you can't win every contract, but finding some other way to benefit from the new arrangement. All those new jobs in Frankfurt represent a new market for Irish exports.

Dyr

Tell me how wrote: »

Of course, the propensity for misinformation and manipulation is even greater in digital media so I'm not expecting any moment of uniform awareness any time soon.
I think it is quite dangerous in fact and is likely to get worse as even people who think they are informed don't realise that they are in some form of echo chamber unbeknownst to themselves.

I'd disagree, the propensity for manipulation in physical media was far far greater through the entry barrier brought about by the costs of production, distribution and the format restrictions that these they had. It meant that they were very easily monopolized by vested interests. The digital media boom is the opposite in terms of production and distribution but its now also in danger of becoming monopolized and held captive to the agenda of a small few

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

You are the one talking about punishment and wounding. Those are sentiments straight out of the Koran, the Torah and the Old Testament ...



Yep. And any London job that goes to Frankfurt is lost to Dublin. Same as the EMA and the EYO and dozens of other offices and agencies that have not relocated to Dublin. It's all part of the fair fight - accepting that you can't win every contract, but finding some other way to benefit from the new arrangement. All those new jobs in Frankfurt represent a new market for Irish exports.

Indeed. The next big issue in terms of Brexit will be manufacturing jobs. We might pick up some of those especially in pharma. I know of one such company that is closing their UK facility because of Brexit though they won't say it publicly. They aren't relocating the jobs anywhere unfortunately, though they have a presence in Ireland, they've just decided to write Britain off.

In all of this, let's not forget that Britain is damaging an institution that has been very good for Ireland, is damaging our economy and endangering peace on our island.

20silkcut

Bambi wrote: »

I'd disagree, the propensity for manipulation in physical media was far far greater through the entry barrier brought about by the costs of production, distribution and the format restrictions that these they had. It meant that they were very easily monopolized by vested interests. The digital media boom is the opposite in terms of production and distribution but its now also in danger of becoming monopolized and held captive to the agenda of a small few

There is a lot of potential for dark arts and manipulation in terms of what is presented to us on twitter feeds , Facebook timelines and you tube recommended videos etc. You will find the amount of people who will stray from what they are fed and seek the real truth will be a tiny proportion.

EdgeCase

The big issue from a business point of view is that this kind of political instability in the UK is not likely to go away anytime soon.

I could see a lot of companies deciding to give the UK a skip for the next while. Who wants to expose their company to the kinds of risks being whipped up by politics in the UK at present, particularly when in many cases, there's absolutely no reason to.

Professor Moriarty

20silkcut wrote: »

There is a lot of potential for dark arts and manipulation in terms of what is presented to us on twitter feeds , Facebook timelines and you tube recommended videos etc. You will find the amount of people who will stray from what they are fed and seek the real truth will be a tiny proportion.

Present company excluded, of course.

UsedToWait

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s quite troubling language you have elected to use which to my mind puts you in the same bracket as the ‘extreme brexiteers’ who apparently believe the EU is a strategic enemy. Two sides to the same coin.

Regardless of what form Brexit takes on Britain and the EU will still share the same fundamental values and interests vis a vis the rest of the world and the complex challenges posed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, China etc

Talk of ‘wounding as much as possible’ a friendly country and a geographic neighbour, especially given the way the rest of the world is right now, is just utterly terrifying.

I think the Prof's language reflects, as your compatriot seems to have only realised, the fact that Irish people have looked on, first with a sense of confusion, and lately with a sense of exasperation, as your countrymen have fallen under the spell of vested interests and vulture capitalists.

You mention Russia as one of our common foes, yet you've allowed dirty Russian money to buy up much of the speculative property in London, and to influence, unchecked, the social media messages your people are targeted with on a daily basis.

The time for nicities and diplomatic language is finished, as regards commenting on the political morass your country has descended into.

Dyr

20silkcut wrote: »

There is a lot of potential for dark arts and manipulation in terms of what is presented to us on twitter feeds , Facebook timelines and you tube recommended videos etc. You will find the amount of people who will stray from what they are fed and seek the real truth will be a tiny proportion.

That manipulation was absolutely prevalent in the previous generation of media formats.

Like I said, the real risk is that we've also allowed huge monopolies to spring up in the format, that said I can still find content that I find worth viewing

Professor Moriarty

UsedToWait wrote: »

I think the Prof's language reflects, as your compatriot seems to have only realised, the fact that Irish people have looked on, first with a sense of confusion, and lately with a sense of exasperation, as your countrymen have fallen under the spell of vested interests and vulture capitalists.

You mention Russia as one of our common foes, yet you've allowed dirty Russian money to buy up much of the speculative property in London, and to influence, unchecked, the social media messages your people are targeted with on a daily basis.

The time for nicities and diplomatic language is finished, as regards commenting on the political morass your country has descended into.

It fascinates me that some people are upset over the word 'wound'. What else would you try to do to a competitor (without harming yourself obviously) ? When it comes to business, there is no sentiment. Sure, it's not language you would use diplomatically but this is an internet discussion.

I find it equally fascinating that people are offended by the idea that Ireland should try to take advantage of a 'friendly' country. Apart from the Labour spokesman on NI, I haven't seen or heard any consideration or acknowledgement on the friendly British media or from friendly British politicians for Ireland's plight as a result of Brexit. None whatsoever.

steddyeddy

I was at Glaxosmithkline yesterday for a short collaboration discussion when the subject of Brexit came up. They make several tons of penicillin and other drugs a year for export but before they export them for sale they have to send them to Italy for further processing.

They said any sort of Brexit that puts tariffs or delays on exporting will cost the company 6 million a week for one plant alone. In other words if Brexit happens it will be rendered nonviable to operate in the UK. This is Glaxosmithkline, one of the biggest pharmaceutical plants in the world.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It fascinates me that some people are upset over the word 'wound'. What else would you try to do to a competitor (without harming yourself obviously) ? When it comes to business, there is no sentiment. Sure, it's not language you would use diplomatically but this is an internet discussion.

I find it equally fascinating that people are offended by the idea that Ireland should try to take advantage of a 'friendly' country. Apart from the Labour spokesman on NI, I haven't seen or heard any consideration or acknowledgement on the friendly British media or from friendly British politicians for Ireland's plight as a result of Brexit. None whatsoever.

Would it be a reasonable assumption that your brexit wishlist would be:1-the TM deal to go through.2-no deal brexit. 3-UK remain.
I ask this as UK remaining would be a blow to Ireland's ambitions in regards to picking up services and manufacturing in your opinion.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

Would it be a reasonable assumption that your brexit wishlist would be:1-the TM deal to go through.2-no deal brexit. 3-UK remain.
I ask this as UK remaining would be a blow to Ireland's ambitions in regards to picking up services and manufacturing in your opinion.

My personal preference would be a decisive victory for Remain. Not least because I have some good English friends and I don't want them affected. Also, no form of Brexit is a positive for Ireland's economy. Nor is it a positive for the EU project. Nor is it a positive for peace in NI.

zapitastas

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s quite troubling language you have elected to use which to my mind puts you in the same bracket as the ‘extreme brexiteers’ who apparently believe the EU is a strategic enemy. Two sides to the same coin.

Regardless of what form Brexit takes on Britain and the EU will still share the same fundamental values and interests vis a vis the rest of the world and the complex challenges posed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, China etc

Talk of ‘wounding as much as possible’ a friendly country and a geographic neighbour, especially given the way the rest of the world is right now, is just utterly terrifying.

I think the fact that British diplomats spent a considerable period of time touring Europe in an attempt to undermine Irish interests has certainly painted the British establishment in a certain light. How would you describe that approach to diplomacy

RobMc59

zapitastas wrote: »

I think the fact that British diplomats spent a considerable period of time touring Europe in an attempt to undermine Irish interests has certainly painted the British establishment in a certain light. How would you describe that approach to diplomacy

It makes the UK appear insincere and possibly untrustworthy,although Ireland's determination has probably proven to be a godsend to the EU as it has completely hamstrung the UK-if not for the backstop the brexiteers probably would have got what they want which would have been a serious blow to the future of the EU as others would have been encouraged.