Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

I seem to recall "We want control of our borders" being a rationale for Brexit.

That includes the border landside of NI or don't you understand what the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is?

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

This comment in no way addresses my comments about Britain wanting to control its borders.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

It entered their heads when they threatened Ireland's economy over the backstop. Apart from that, you're right, not one Brexiteer has ever acknowledged the impact of Brexit on Ireland.

Nate--IRL--

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Indeed. And when Ireland acts toward it's own self interest in dealing with the fallout, this oversight is entirely the Brexiteers own blunder (among many other blunders).

It is not Ireland (or EU) punishing the UK. It is Ireland protecting itself as much as is possible in the situation thrust upon it.

Nate

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

This comment in no way addresses my comments about Britain wanting to control its borders.

My point it that although Britain(brexiteers) has said it wants to control it's borders it's not an attack or slight on Ireland-Ireland isn't seen as a threat/rival in the power struggle the brexiteers have conned the UK into-Ireland is important to me personally but not to those people who have brought Britain to this-they don't care about their own country so they’re not going to worry about another.

20silkcut

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy-imo it's better for the UK to remain in the EU-if you really think the larger nations don't call the shots that's your opinion but I disagree.

In the history of this country I don’t think any of us have ever seen Ireland in such a prominent position in international affairs whether or not we call the shots our interests are fully aligned and top of the agenda in a bloc of 500 million people we have never been in such a powerful position vis a vis the UK. This is mind bending to most brexiteers and astonishing to remainers in places like Scotland and Wales and NI who are having their wishes and interests completely ignored in Westminster.

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

My point it that although Britain(brexiteers) has said it wants to control it's borders it's not an attack or slight on Ireland-Ireland isn't seen as a threat/rival in the power struggle the brexiteers have conned the UK into-Ireland is important to me personally but not to those people who have brought Britain to this-they don't care about their own country so they’re not going to worry about another.

The very fundamental problem with this is that the UK has only one land border - the one with us that has caused years of trouble, which was essentially negotiated away via the EU single market and the GFA. Ireland isn't a threat but (the island of) Ireland bears all the costs.

Whatever the intentions good, bad or indifferent we bear substantial costs for someone else's decisions.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ì googled 'brexit effect on Ireland 2018'.

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.



November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".


The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

Capt'n Midnight

Maggie pushed the Common Market hard, it's part of UK legacy in the EU.

The Common Market is now the only bit of the EU the Tories want to Remain in, and at the same time it's the bit Labour want to Leave.


Each side as bad as the other. The iceberg has been sighted and they are arguing over whether to fight over who will be in charge of re-arraigning the deckchairs or allowing the passengers to vote on launching the lifeboats.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.



November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".


The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

If you want information on a subject how do you research it?Doesn't everyone look on line?-I'd also like to mention I disregarded the BBC and telegraph-the source I took as truthful was RTE.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy-imo it's better for the UK to remain in the EU-if you really think the larger nations don't call the shots that's your opinion but I disagree.

Small countries are disproportionately strong in the EU compared to how their pure population or economy would suggest. If a sufficient number of the biggest countries decide in one direction, it can be difficult or impossible for smaller countries to contradict them - depending on the area of competencr. Describing this as the big countries "calling the shots" is misleading and inaccurate IMO however. It is certainly less so than describing the UK as a place where England "calls the shots"

First Up

RobMc59 wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.



November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".


The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

If you want information on a subject how do you research it?Doesn't everyone look on line?-I'd also like to mention I disregarded the BBC and telegraph-the source I took as truthful was RTE.

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

RobMc59

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy ...

Yes, that's the point: Britain believes passionately in hierarchy - some people deserve to be higher up than others (c.f. the monarchy, the House of Lords, public schools, FPTP elections, etc, etc). That is an attitude that conflicts with the more egalitarian, generally socialist way of life of continental Europe.

Contrary to popular GB belief, there is no hierarchy in the EU - so a little country like Ireland (or Luxembourg) can quite easily defeat a giant like France on - to pick an example from this week - digital tax. In effect, you are thinking like Prof Moriarty earlier (be stronger, wound the enemy) when in fact the EU engages in competition based on compromise - something that has completely flummoxed the British Brexit negotiators.

RobMc59 wrote: »

sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Exactly! Up to the start of the WA negotiations, the Brextieers' myopia was so severe, the complication that is "and Northern Ireland" never registered, so they couldn't see the gaping hole in many of their proclamations. On this forum, way back in 2015-2016, we discussed the inherent contradictions that any kind of Brexit would face if/when Leave won the referendum, and everything we identified as an Ireland-related problem in the making has turned out to be a big problem for the Brexiteers. Fortunately for the RoI, all Irish (mainstream) politicians have had their eye on that ball since the referendum result was announced, and have played as team.

Buy hey, it's a wet Sunday afternoon (here in France at least, where the peasants are revolting again :rolleyes: ) - time for some Foil, Arms & Hog therapy:

CelticRambler

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

:eek: Ah feck ... I regular do research for a living, and always start with a good google. Have I been doing it wrong all this time ...?

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

Brexit defies understanding, so I wouldn't try too hard ...
... but how about finding the version of this thread from around the early days post-referendum (don't know if that was II or III) and seeing how things looked to us outsiders at that time?

First Up

CelticRambler wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

:eek: Ah feck ... I regular do research for a living, and always start with a good google. Have I been doing it wrong all this time ...?

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

Brexit defies understanding, so I wouldn't try too hard ...
... but how about finding the version of this thread from around the early days post-referendum (don't know if that was II or III) and seeing how things looked to us outsiders at that time?

By all means start with Google.

But don't stop there.

Sorry for asking this question again, but if May's Brexit was voted through (unlikely), would it mitigate a lot of the negatives for Ireland?

Water John

Well it's better for us than facing a Crash out Brexit, but its nuts for the UK itself.

Capt'n Midnight

The other way to look up Brexit is to "Follow the money"

Don't get sidetracked on the conspiracy theory stuff and the slush funds.

Not because it didn't happen, but because it's too late to undo.
(eg. the way the Metro Ad campaign was done would be illegal now )
But if there is a second referendum or election or public campaign than rather than waste time arguing it would be nice if someone made a list of all the stuff that's been proven.


The oldest question is - "who benefits ?"
Economically it looks like only disaster capitalists , asset strippers and short sellers will benefit in the short to medium term.

Politically, at it's heart Brexit is a Troy in-fight that's destroying the party. Labour have their own in-fight too. Lots more losers than winners.

Take back control ? - Like "support our troops" it's completely meaningless without context.

The UK already has complete control of non-EU immigration, and has complete control of EU Jobseekers after 6 months. Last year immigration from the EU slowed down, but non-EU immigration ramped up. Complete red herring. And don't mention the power grab over Scotland or the Northern Ireland Assembly.

There's been no evidence that any country will give the UK as good a deal as the the UK already gets through EU deals with that country. Southern Africa got billions in Aid, India wants Visa, For New Zealand food exports the EU is far more profitable than the UK. The US isn't even pretending that a deal will be anything other than America First. The new deal for trans-Atlantic flights means it's back to the bad old days where US airlines could make multiple hops in Europe before a trans-Atlantic flight but UK airlines can't. And in practice it'll be the US that gets to decide which Airlines qualify.

So maybe look at who is making noises about these deals and how they could benefit ? There's more than one hard Brexiteer with dual passports and fingers in foreign pies. "I'm alright, Jack"

mickoneill31

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

I find podcasts are a good way of educating myself on the subject.
I listen to more than this but these two are pretty good.

Tony Connellys Brexit Republic.

Fog in the Channel is also good from a French persons point of view.

Cakewatch - This is from the perspective of a couple of anti Brexit beaureaucrats. But they know their stuff as to how the EU works and they've worked in drafting agreements.

There's also "3 Blokes in a pub" on Youtube. They take a different topic each week and try to have an expert on the subject so they're not just waffling on about it.


I know the last two are anti Brexit. I tried listening to the pro Brexit side of the podcasts but they don't typically try to get any expert opinion. You'll have somebody from the Telegraph or a Brexiter telling you how it's all going to be a land of milk and honey or it's the EUs fault. If somebody has any suggestions of a pro Brexit podcast that tries to present the Brexit side with some evidence or facts I wouldn't mind listening to it.

Water John

Hope someone has a genuine pro Brexit esp Crash out one. But then when you're selling snake oil...

Strazdas

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I find podcasts are a good way of educating myself on the subject.
I listen to more than this but these two are pretty good.

Tony Connellys Brexit Republic.

Fog in the Channel is also good from a French persons point of view.

Cakewatch - This is from the perspective of a couple of anti Brexit beaureaucrats. But they know their stuff as to how the EU works and they've worked in drafting agreements.

There's also "3 Blokes in a pub" on Youtube. They take a different topic each week and try to have an expert on the subject so they're not just waffling on about it.


I know the last two are anti Brexit. I tried listening to the pro Brexit side of the podcasts but they don't typically try to get any expert opinion. You'll have somebody from the Telegraph or a Brexiter telling you how it's all going to be a land of milk and honey or it's the EUs fault. If somebody has any suggestions of a pro Brexit podcast that tries to present the Brexit side with some evidence or facts I wouldn't mind listening to it.

We're at the stage now where Brexiteers are openly admitting Brexit will be very bad for the economy but it should be ploughed ahead with, as it means Britain regaining sovereignty. A purely political / ideological viewpoint.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Sorry for asking this question again, but if May's Brexit was voted through (unlikely), would it mitigate a lot of the negatives for Ireland?

Mitigate, yes. It would do much less harm than a crash-out, or a very hard brexit. But eliminate, no. it would still be harmful. There is no version of Brexit which is not harmful to Ireland.

trellheim

Brexiteers are openly admitting Brexit will be very bad for the economy but it should be ploughed ahead with, as it means Britain regaining sovereignty. A purely political / ideological viewpoint.

Was it not the same for us in 1922

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

Was it not the same for us in 1922

Not really. The union with Great Britain was very bad for Ireland in economic terms, so leaving it wasn't obviously harmful. Whereas the European Union has been hugely beneficial for the UK in economic terms, so leaving it looks obviously economically harmful.

briany

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

judeboy101

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

MrMusician18

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

In theory, Ireland would have to erect a border for Brexit day but in practice, it won't.

A no deal Brexit is expected to cause a huge amount of issues for the UK on the immediate weeks and months following. The expectation is, that in this kind of crisis, the UK would essentially be forced back to the table to accept whatever it is that's offered to them in order to relieve the crisis.

That's why the Irish government can say that there will be no hard border, because they believe a deal will have to be done either before Brexit day or shortly afterwards as a result of the crisis it's caused. If the UK managed to tough it out, then there would be no option for Ireland but to erect customs and market controls at the border or leave the single market and customs union.

Water John

The EU doesn't erect or operate any borders. This is done by its constituent countries.

Nate--IRL--

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal?

There will be a border in that case, there might be some initial posturing while one side or the other shrieks "They put a border up first!". But in the end it will be full hard border.

Nate