Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

briany

judeboy101 wrote: »

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

So, the UK could get away with no tariffs on EU goods via Northern Ireland, even if they're putting tariffs on goods from other WTO members? Wouldn't that raise almost immediate objections from said WTO members? And would the UK still attempt to control the Dover border (and, indeed, all other crossings from the EU) while leaving one specific one completely open?

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In theory, Ireland would have to erect a border for Brexit day but in practice, it won't.

A no deal Brexit is expected to cause a huge amount of issues for the UK on the immediate weeks and months following. The expectation is, that in this kind of crisis, the UK would essentially be forced back to the table to accept whatever it is that's offered to them in order to relieve the crisis.

That's why the Irish government can say that there will be no hard border, because they believe a deal will have to be done either before Brexit day or shortly afterwards as a result of the crisis it's caused. If the UK managed to tough it out, then there would be no option for Ireland but to erect customs and market controls at the border or leave the single market and customs union.

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

There will be a border in that case, there might be some initial posturing while one side or the other shrieks "They put a border up first!". But in the end it will be full hard border.

Nate

Sounds like a game of "Border chicken" could be afoot in the event of No Deal, then.

Water John wrote: »

The EU doesn't erect or operate any borders. This is done by its constituent countries.

But don't the EU put pressure on if one of those constituent countries would, for whatever reason, not enforce a border?

RobMc59

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

briany

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Because Ireland being part of the UK worked out so well the last time. :rolleyes:

tuxy

Westminster has shown how little it cares for Scotland and NI and polls show 80%-90% of people in Ireland want to stay in the EU. No one would entertain the idea of rejoining the UK.

P_1

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Tbf if you could work out a way of reducing the influence of the southern English Tories that might not be the worst of ideas. Some sort of a federated republic/kingdom with proper devolved powers to each republic/kingdom

tuxy

How about a European federation?

P_1

tuxy wrote: »

How about a European federation?

Like the Eu. Dunno I don't think itll fly

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Could you link the article. Then we could all read it and comment on it.

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

So the plan to ensure no border, according to Kate Hoey, is to have increased tensions on the border that the UK doesn't want? In any case I think the only thing that will happen in no deal is that NI will remain part of the EU and their will be customs checks with the Irish Sea as the border, because the UK has signed the GFA. We would want to avoid this as it will cause tensions, but that would be less than actually putting up a border.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

Any day now you will be proven right, if you keep pointing out how we will be taken to task by the EU it will happen and you will be right. I don't know if we should be keeping score of the times you have not been proven correct, but I guess the one time you are right will be the only thing that counts.

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

Could you link the article. Then we could all read it and comment on it.




So the plan to ensure no border, according to Kate Hoey, is to have increased tensions on the border that the UK doesn't want? In any case I think the only thing that will happen in no deal is that NI will remain part of the EU and their will be customs checks with the Irish Sea as the border, because the UK has signed the GFA. We would want to avoid this as it will cause tensions, but that would be less than actually putting up a border.




Any day now you will be proven right, if you keep pointing out how we will be taken to task by the EU it will happen and you will be right. I don't know if we should be keeping score of the times you have not been proven correct, but I guess the one time you are right will be the only thing that counts.

I'll try and post a link but not sure if my Internet knowledge will stretch to that!:)

UsedToWait

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

At first, I wondered whether you were trolling, but now, not so much.

fergiesfolly

Who in their right mind would think that Ireland would ever have any interest in ever rejoining the UK under any circumstances.
It'll never happen.

Also would it not be madness for the UK not to errect a border between NI and ourselves in the event of a no deal brexit. We undoubtedly will. And they are leaving themselves open to all sorts of problems if they don't.

RobMc59

UsedToWait wrote: »

At first, I wondered whether you were trolling, but now, not so much.

I care about Ireland-just got off to a bad start -I've learnt some useful things on here and to listen to other points of view.:)

Tell me how

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

What is your opinion on this?
Do you think we should?

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

No. Wouldn't even waste my time. Early on in Brexit, Irish support for staying in the EU was measured at 82%, amongst full time students it was 99%.

Compare the economy North and South.
Or look at how much power the SNP have in Westminster.



Comparing the North and South.

Natural resources are similar, culture is similar unless you want to include the advantages of the Protestant work ethic. Before partition 90% of manufacturing used to be in the North.

Guess which side now has 90% of the manufacturing output ?
Guess which side has the most inward investment ?
Guess which side doesn't need a massive subsidy to stay afloat ?
Guess which side has an international voice ?

The main difference between North and South is whether Westminster or Dublin controls policy.


Or look at it the political future.
NI and Scotland between them elected a grand total of 3 MP's out of the 650 in the previous general election, from the three main parties that have been in government since 1707 . In 1918 in the last UK election down here the UK parties got no seats, and outside of Ulster there were only two Unionists elected.

Those numbers suggest that we'd have exactly the same level of influence and control as the SNP have in Westminster. That is to say none at all.

Capt'n Midnight

tuxy wrote: »

How about a European federation?

IMHO Scotland would be a good fit for the EFTA.

The UK is too big and divergent.

briany

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Who in their right mind would think that Ireland would ever have any interest in ever rejoining the UK under any circumstances.
It'll never happen.

Also would it not be madness for the UK not to errect a border between NI and ourselves in the event of a no deal brexit. We undoubtedly will. And they are leaving themselves open to all sorts of problems if they don't.

If Ireland, under EU and WTO pressure, were to put up border infrastructure, the UK would probably do it the day after, under the guise of, "Ah, well, that's that talk about the Good Friday Agreement out the window. Might as well put up a border ourselves, now."

Nate--IRL--

briany wrote: »

If Ireland, under EU and WTO pressure...

Emm - not pressure, a legal obligation as part of Single market membership. The Border is not in question in the event of a hard Brexit. Ireland will enforce a border. So will the UK.

There may be optics involved, as mentioned previously.

We could of course leave the Single market and customs union..... no need for a border then. We'd just have to hope the UK also plays ball in such a scenario, and not **** us over....... :pac:

Nate

mickoneill31

briany wrote: »

If Ireland, under EU and WTO pressure, were to put up border infrastructure, the UK would probably do it the day after, under the guise of, "Ah, well, that's that talk about the Good Friday Agreement out the window. Might as well put up a border ourselves, now."

What's this EU and WTO pressure? We're in the EU, single market and customs union.

If we don't want a border with the UK and the UK leaves those three items then we just have to do that too. Simple. Fortunately, we're not that stupid.

Saying there's pressue to control your border with a third country is a bit childish. It's what a country has to do.
We don't want a border but there's no choice if the UK goes mental. Blaming the EU won't really work over here. We haven't been indoctrinated by the UK media against the EU for the last 20 years. The UK can say what they want, only hard line Torys will think they can blame Ireland or the EU.

Edit: Or what Nate said
I was typing my reply when he posted his.

An Ciarraioch

SNIP. Don't paste comedy videos here please.

Infini

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Emm - not pressure, a legal obligation as part of Single market membership. The Border is not in question in the event of a hard Brexit. Ireland will enforce a border. So will the UK.

There may be optics involved, as mentioned previously.

I would say though that if the brinksmanship and disorganised stupidity of the British establisment were to lead to a no deal crashout then even if we were to have to erect temporary border controls thats all they would be. The Brits would still need trade agreements for trade and such and if they wished to trade with the EU then we would be in the position to demand significant concessions from them to sort the border issue. Could definately see a border poll being something to come about if NI is hammered hard enough and a UI ultimately removes the problem from this island.

Nate--IRL--

Infini wrote: »

I would say though that if the brinksmanship and disorganised stupidity of the British establisment were to lead to a no deal crashout then even if we were to have to erect temporary border controls thats all they would be. The Brits would still need trade agreements for trade and such and if they wished to trade with the EU then we would be in the position to demand significant concessions from them to sort the border issue. Could definately see a border poll being something to come about if NI is hammered hard enough and a UI ultimately removes the problem from this island.

Temporary arrangements have a habit of sticking around The UK will still be able to trade. Trade will not stop. However it will be on less favourable terms for both sides.

Given the political vacuum during a no-deal scenario in Britain, I'd expect it would be many years before a new UK-EU agreement comes about. Even longer for one that obviates the need for a border.

Nate

Rain Ascending

judeboy101 wrote: »

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

Hmm, I've seen this scenario suggested a few times, primarily in in fora with a much stronger pro-Brexit representation than here. Honestly, given the strength of EU support for Ireland to date, I find it politically implausible. But, let's leave that aside for a minute and look at it from a legal perspective.

The idea that the EU has the legal power to force countries like France and Belgium to enforce border controls with Ireland, i.e. to treat Ireland as if it was outside the SM and/or the CU, while Ireland is still is a full member of the EU, is very surprising to me. Can you point to where you believe the EU has these powers and the mechanism for enacting them? I'll take any reputable source for starters.

A more likely, if still implausible, hard-deal Brexit scenario is one where
(a) The Irish government doesn't put in place any controls on the North Ireland border.
(b) The Commission issues warnings to the government.
(c) The Irish government very slowly starts to implement controls.
(d) The Commission eventually looses patience and takes the Irish government to the ECJ.
(e) The ECJ issues a judgement.
The point is it would take at least a couple of years to get to stage (e) where the Irish government would have to deal with a possible negative judgement from the ECJ. In the meantime, under this very strict approach by the European Commission, the French have gummed up Dover and the Channel Tunnel grinding major chunks of British manufacturing industry and agriculture to a halt, etc., etc.

Bottom line: As rough as things could get at the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, the dynamics on the UK-French border will be much faster.

Charles Babbage

A proportionate response by the EU would be to second experienced customs officials from places like Germany and Austria to Ireland, so that a good impression of control could be maintained without delay. But make no great effort to speed things up on the Channel.

In reality, if the British wanted a no deal with mitigation then they would simply leave the NI backstop alone, they need their staff in GB in that case, not in NI.

Peregrinus

Charles Babbage wrote: »

A proportionate response by the EU would be to second experienced customs officials from places like Germany and Austria to Ireland, so that a good impression of control could be maintained without delay. But make no great effort to speed things up on the Channel.

In reality, if the British wanted a no deal with mitigation then they would simply leave the NI backstop alone, they need their staff in GB in that case, not in NI.

The EU don't post customs officials; they don't have any to post. It's possible that Ireland might ask other countries for help, and that might include asking for the temporary secondment of staff from other countries but that would be a bilateral arrangement between Ireland and the countries concerned; not something the EU could simply decide on. But, honestly, I think even that is wildly unlikely.

More likely is that, if border controls do become necessary, it will take some time to work out exactly what controls are needed, and some more time to get those controls up to speed. Neither side will rush to be the first to erect controls, but both sides will need to.

As Infini points out in post #7186, a crash-out Brexit is not a stable situation, and I think the Irish government's hope is that, if it does happen, domestic pressures in the UK will bring them back to the negotiating table before it becomes necessary to set up extensive border controls in Ireland.

judeboy101

Can you point to where you believe the EU has these powers and the mechanism for enacting them? I'll take any reputable source for starters.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

They can stop goods and can stop people bringing goods. While this has only been used on the continent, it applies to any internal EU border, not specifically shengen.

Calina

judeboy101 wrote: »

Can you point to where you believe the EU has these powers and the mechanism for enacting them? I'll take any reputable source for starters.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

They can stop goods and can stop people bringing goods. While this has only been used on the continent, it applies to any internal EU border, not specifically shengen.

It is the Schengen Border Code. How is it not specifically Schengen?

Also there are a bunch of conditions linked to it.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

Can you point to where you believe the EU has these powers and the mechanism for enacting them? I'll take any reputable source for starters.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

They can stop goods and can stop people bringing goods. While this has only been used on the continent, it applies to any internal EU border, not specifically shengen.

That allows individual Member States who participate in Schengen to reintroduce border controls, for their own domestic purposes. It doesn't provide any basis for the EU to direct or require them to do so for the purposes of the Union. It isn't really a suitable mechanism for dealing with the situation which would arise were the UK to leave without an agreed arrangement for keeping the Irish border open.

If that situation does arise, the EU's preferred course will not be that there should be controls on trade between Ireland and other Member States , but that Ireland should operate controls on trade with the UK. And, painful though it would be, that will also be the preference of the Irish government. I do think there'll be understanding at the EU level of the political and practical difficulties Ireland will face, so border controls may be slow to be rolled out in full, and for quite some time they may be partial or cobbled-together. But, in this situation, sooner or later there will be Irl/UK border controls.

But the Irish government will be playing for "later", and hoping that the other dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit will bring the UK to its senses and back to the negotiating table before full-on border controls have to be introduced.

RobMc59

Tell me how wrote: »

What is your opinion on this?
Do you think we should?

My 1st thought was it wouldn't appeal to people in Ireland but if it was a joint venture between both governments ,perhaps giving joint soveignty which would show Ireland that the UK wants a genuine solution and is willing to compromise then yes,I think it could be a good idea.

mickoneill31

RobMc59 wrote: »

My 1st thought was it wouldn't appeal to people in Ireland but if it was a joint venture between both governments ,perhaps giving joint soveignty which would show Ireland that the UK wants a genuine solution and is willing to compromise then yes,I think it could be a good idea.

I think the antics of the UK government over the last couple of years means that nobody is going to trust them in any negotiations like that for a fair while.

You mention sovereignty. It was a component of the Brexit campaign. They didnt understand it when they were part of the EU. Some people (including members of Parliament) still think they didn't have control over their own laws when they were in the EU.
I don't think they'd be bothered about Irish sovereignty if we (for some magical reason) joined up with them.

cml387

Is it possible that there will be no vote next Tuesday?
If the whips feel it's a hopeless task, would it be better to give up.
May can go back to Brussels saying I can't do this, you'll have to come up with a better deal.