Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

BonnieSituation

Seth Brundle wrote: »

My point was that if they won't interfere in a foreign parliament as they claim then why stand in their elections?
It's for another thread though.

Wow, we didn't make it past the second day since this nonsense was previously put down.

Must be a record!

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As stated above, the whole point of standing on an abstentionist policy is to not turn up.

Also, the way people seem to think SF are doing a disservice to their non-voters is incredible.

Any concern for the poor Nationalists who get to be represented by the bigoted and racist Sammy Wilson and Gregory Campbell?

Worztron

When Brexit comes into effect - how will it change how we purchase items online from UK websites? Will the prices soar?

lawred2

Could you imagine the response from little Englanders were Irish nationalists to start playing hurler on the ditch?

SF are doing the exact right thing keeping their head's down on this.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Wow, we didn't make it past the second day since this nonsense was previously put down.

Must be a record!

---

As stated above, the whole point of standing on an abstentionist policy is to not turn up.

Also, the way people seem to think SF are doing a disservice to their non-voters is incredible.

Any concern for the poor Nationalists who get to be represented by the bigoted and racist Sammy Wilson and Gregory Campbell?

The whole point is that the nationalists from all constituencies are represented by Sammy Wilson and Gregory Campbell because there is nobody else willing to take up their seats.

Leaving aside what SF should do now, if the current crisis results in a general election on the issue of Brexit, both SF and the DUP should be made suffer by the NI electorate for their respective ways of dealing with the issue.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

Could you imagine the response from little Englanders were Irish nationalists to start playing hurler on the ditch?

SF are doing the exact right thing keeping their head's down on this.

I think one only has to look at what is actually happening in the HoC to see how littel impact, and thus pointless, SF taking their seats up would be.

The government has just lost a vote and thus been branded as in contempt of parliament. Soon after it lost another vote which effectively means TM loses control of Brexit process if she loses the upcoming vote.

However, no sooner had that vote been passed then government ministers and ex minsters (Leadsom and Raab) were on message telling people that any vote in parliament was just political and No 10 would have the final saw and what it really wanted.

TM has not only lost the majority, she has now lost the coalition partners (or whatever term they used) so she is effectively trying to ram home her pwn personal agenda without the support of the majority of the house.

What makes anyone think that a few SF votes are going to suddenly bring an end to the madness.

seamus

Worztron wrote: »

When Brexit comes into effect - how will it change how we purchase items online from UK websites? Will the prices soar?

Assuming no deal, then you will see a bit of a jump.

At the moment UK retailers who sell decent amounts into Ireland (think Amazon), charge our own rate of 23% VAT on the sale. But the goods are not subject to customs duties.

After a no-deal exit, the UK site will sell the product to you ex-VAT, but Irish customs will require that you pay duty + VAT on the item.

If the item costs less than €150, no duty will be collected on it, but VAT will be.

So, not a major issue for the typical kind of online sales, since most are probably under €150.

However, the package will be stopped and held by the carrier until you pay the VAT. So what was previously a simple transaction with a package that arrived 3 days later, now becomes a far more annoying transaction that may take two weeks to reach you.

For this reason alone, most people will switch to other EU suppliers for online shopping.

briany

Worztron wrote: »

When Brexit comes into effect - how will it change how we purchase items online from UK websites? Will the prices soar?

It'll be a sickener if the Pound tumbles further down, only to see the savings being nixed by the import fees.

We don't know what Brexit will look like yet, so it's impossible to say. If May's deal passes, then getting stuff from the likes of Amazon.co.uk shouldn't change much, if at all. It would put the UK in a customs union with the EU making the movement of goods between those jurisdiction tariff-free. Services would be a different matter, though.

If there's no deal, then I suppose it'll be like ordering something from China or Russia or any other 3rd country to the EU, except there won't be as much of a delay due to geographical proximity, but still more time taken because of customs checks. And if you've ever gotten something from Russia or China, you know how long a package can sit rotting in customs.

Nody

Worztron wrote: »

When Brexit comes into effect - how will it change how we purchase items online from UK websites? Will the prices soar?

Well with UK (not NI) outside of the Single market etc. there's going to mean it's treated as if imported from China, USA etc. in terms of additional fees. That will definitely add a cost to it all.

First Up

Worztron wrote: »

When Brexit comes into effect - how will it change how we purchase items online from UK websites? Will the prices soar?

Depends what duties if any apply in the EU-UK trade arrangements. Too soon to say.

But sterling is likely to plummet so there could be savings too.

Fr Tod Umptious

seamus wrote: »

Assuming no deal, then you will see a bit of a jump.

At the moment UK retailers who sell decent amounts into Ireland (think Amazon), charge our own rate of 23% VAT on the sale. But the goods are not subject to customs duties.

After a no-deal exit, the UK site will sell the product to you ex-VAT, but Irish customs will require that you pay duty + VAT on the item.

If the item costs less than €150, no duty will be collected on it, but VAT will be.

So, not a major issue for the typical kind of online sales, since most are probably under €150.

However, the package will be stopped and held by the carrier until you pay the VAT. So what was previously a simple transaction with a package that arrived 3 days later, now becomes a far more annoying transaction that may take two weeks to reach you.

For this reason alone, most people will switch to other EU suppliers for online shopping.

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

cml387

First Up wrote: »

Depends what duties if any apply in the EU-UK trade arrangements. Too soon to say.

But sterling is likely to plummet so there could be savings too.

There would be saving in the short term. In the long term increased inflation would push the price up again.

Tell me how

blanch152 wrote: »

The whole point is that the nationalists from all constituencies are represented by Sammy Wilson and Gregory Campbell because there is nobody else willing to take up their seats.

Leaving aside what SF should do now, if the current crisis results in a general election on the issue of Brexit, both SF and the DUP should be made suffer by the NI electorate for their respective ways of dealing with the issue.

It is reasonable to suggest that SF voters made their choice fully expecting the practice of abstentionism to be upheld.

SF doing pretty much anything differently to prior practice would have further strengthened UK media claims that the Union is being under attack by the EU and the Irish government.

Shelga

It seems that what Brexiters really want is for the entire EU to disband, because while it exists, they can’t have what they want. I think that is dawning on them now. Well, tough.

prawnsambo

seamus wrote: »

Assuming no deal, then you will see a bit of a jump.

At the moment UK retailers who sell decent amounts into Ireland (think Amazon), charge our own rate of 23% VAT on the sale. But the goods are not subject to customs duties.

After a no-deal exit, the UK site will sell the product to you ex-VAT, but Irish customs will require that you pay duty + VAT on the item.

If the item costs less than €150, no duty will be collected on it, but VAT will be.

So, not a major issue for the typical kind of online sales, since most are probably under €150.

However, the package will be stopped and held by the carrier until you pay the VAT. So what was previously a simple transaction with a package that arrived 3 days later, now becomes a far more annoying transaction that may take two weeks to reach you.

For this reason alone, most people will switch to other EU suppliers for online shopping.

The other issue that's already hit, is the value of sterling. A lot of what we buy from the UK, is not actually produced in the UK. Much of it is imported from other EU countries and the rest of the world and sold on. Sometimes because we are such a small market that it makes sense for the UK suppliers to cover Ireland as well and also because it has been historically cheaper in terms of shipping costs.

But sterling's loss of value has increased the cost to those suppliers and that's being passed on to the consumer. If the UK crash out without a withdrawal agreement, sterling will tank even further and that will really put an end to the UK as a competitve market to buy from.

EdgeCase

I don't really think Sinn Fein could play any kind of useful role in Westminster in Brexit. They would probably end up acting as a lightning rod for the right-leaning Tories and DUP. All of a sudden it would go from ranting about Brexit to ranting about Brexit *and* Sinn Fein.

I would rather see the Tories and the DUP fully owning this disaster of their own making.

Also, does anyone reasonably expect a Sinn Fein member to say this:

standard MP's oath wrote:

I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.

Members who object to swearing the oath are permitted to make a solemn affirmation under the terms of the Oaths Act 1978 wrote:

I... do solemnly, sincerely and truly declare and affirm that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law.

It's utterly ludicrous to even think that's something that's going to happen. I was very surprised at the Taoiseach even bringing it up as a topic a few weeks ago. I mean, in all seriousness, who would ever imagine SF taking that oath? Even beyond Sinn Fein, if FF or FG ran for Westminster seats in Northern Ireland, I could see that oath being a major problem.

LuckyLloyd

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why then do they stand in "foreign" elections?
I don't want this thread to become a SF bashing thread but SF by being absent are depriving NI people from having their voices heard. Stand down from their MP seats and let someone who will actually do the job take it

They were elected because of their abstentionist stance, not inspite of it.

blanch152

Tell me how wrote: »

It is reasonable to suggest that SF voters made their choice fully expecting the practice of abstentionism to be upheld.

SF doing pretty much anything differently to prior practice would have further strengthened UK media claims that the Union is being under attack by the EU and the Irish government.

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

First Up

Sinn Fein are a single issue party. Irrelevant to anything else.

FrancieBrady

lawred2 wrote: »

Could you imagine the response from little Englanders were Irish nationalists to start playing hurler on the ditch?

SF are doing the exact right thing keeping their head's down on this.

It's a massive result for SF if the choice for the UK is the Deal or No Brexit at all.(which is basically what has happened, bar some more huffing and puffing)

The DUP are now poison in their own Union and there will be a cost to them for what they have done to Tory ambition.
The wider public in the UK are now fully aware of how reluctant these people are to share power and how bigoted they are on social and cultural issues.

Still a few north and south who will claim a win for Irish Unionism out of all this but the reality is that, like the UK in general, it's standing and security is greatly diminished.

EdgeCase

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

To be fair to the both SF and the SNP, the Northern Irish and Scottish political situations are drastically different and Northern Ireland's identity questions are much more fraught and complex.

I think speculating on SF changing a long-standing and very core position that they have held since the foundation of their party is simply a waste of time. You might as well be hoping the Tories become socialist republicans. It ain't going to happen!

What's worrying me more so is that despite the Northern Ireland assembly being suspended now since 9 January 2017. It's going on two years without a functioning government at this stage. It's shocking that new elections haven't been called up there. I mean you might as well just abandon democracy entirely at this rate. It's blatantly obvious they're not going to come to some kind of power-sharing agreement anytime soon.

josip

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

But most of the stuff they sell, is actually just resold having been imported, or at best assembled there.
So any fall in the value of Sterling will have zero impact on the retail price of goods to an Irish purchaser.

seamus

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

Very short term. As prawnsambo points out, weak sterling means that the cost of importing to the UK shoots up, and since the UK is import-heavy, the overall cost to bounce on those goods to Ireland, won't change all that much. For people in the UK, the cost of these goods will rise massively.

The only benefit we'll get in the short-term is retailers selling off inventory at their original purchase price. Which with a weak sterling, benefits us.
When it comes time to restock, the cost of the goods to the retailer will rise, and so the sterling price will have to rise too, and any benefit of a weak sterling to us, is lost.

Shelga

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

First Up

seamus wrote: »

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

Very short term. As prawnsambo points out, weak sterling means that the cost of importing to the UK shoots up, and since the UK is import-heavy, the overall cost to bounce on those goods to Ireland, won't change all that much. For people in the UK, the cost of these goods will rise massively.

The only benefit we'll get in the short-term is retailers selling off inventory at their original purchase price. Which with a weak sterling, benefits us.
When it comes time to restock, the cost of the goods to the retailer will rise, and so the sterling price will have to rise too, and any benefit of a weak sterling to us, is lost.

Goods of UK origin should be cheaper but anything with import content will be vulnerable to sterling's weakness.
I think the bigger problems will be logistical - goods we currently source through UK intermediaries. Those supply chains are all likely to be disrupted.

Leroy42

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

The voices may be being heard but it is having no impact at all.

Scotland has been completely cast aside in the debate, the wil of people of the union meaning that anything they have to say is simply ignored as it was covered by the majority.

The only reason the DUP are being any voice is because TM needs them for government, you can be totally sure that had she won a majority the DUP wouldn't even be a footnote in the debate.

SF, even if they took up their seats, are never going to be in a government so, just like the SNP, they would achieve nothing but instead throw away a guiding principle.

Personally I don't agree with their principle, but I respect that it was what they have always stood on.

cml387

Shelga wrote: »

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

It's inconceivable that Brexit wouldn't happen, without a new referendum. I just don't see how TM thinks that's an option if the vote is defeated, other than a sad attempt to scare the Brexiteers.

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

The likelyhood of a delay is certainly increasing, IMO. I just cannot see how the UK can turn back the clock on all this now. They have allowed such fervour and nationalism to take hold that even a compromise deal such as TM has proposed is seen as treachery.

The fact they they are so aghast that they cannot simply leave a backstop whenever they feel like it, despite it being there because of the GFA and the peace of NI, shows just how far they have gone down this rabbit hole.

On top of that, both the PM and the Corbyn both want Brexit, so there isn't even a call for it from the main parties.

cml387

Brexiteers may ask for a delay so that they have time to organise a hard Brexit.

boggerman1

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

lawred2

boggerman1 wrote: »

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

such claptrap could only come from a barstool or a tabloid...

big problem with democracy is that those with low level intellect and zero engagement can still have a vote

time after time it's been shown that populism can very quickly whip up the masses into self destructive behaviour