Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1072102994106306560

Labour think they can force the vote. This just gets worse and worse

Water John

That is what I was hoping, HoC forces the vote by not taking it off the table. Now should be decision time.

Professor Moriarty

Sterling tanking.

Thargor

FT reporting the vote is dead, calling it humiliation. Nothing on BBC strangely.

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sterling tanking.

Down to £1.26 against the dollar and sliding fast. Team UK in trouble.

Infini

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

No we wont. The backstop is the EU position as well the only pressure there will be is on the British to cop the hell on. The backstop isn't just because of the border its the fact that its the only workable solution and keeps imports/export checks confined to a limited number of ports/airports. There's over 150+ land border crossings and no infrastructure it's simply not workable without serious costs both politically, locally and financially. That's why the backstop was key from the outset because it both respects NI's remain vote not the DUP's ideological BS and because it takes account of the unique circumstances of NI.

Britain is the one which will come under serious pressure. Negotiations are over its 3 choices no more no less:

1) Accept WA.
2) Abandon Brexit and this whole excersise in failure and fúck ups.
3) Crash out with no deal and watch your country disintegrate.

The one's who are under pressure are the British to decide what they want and make a decision, no more messing around this is the result of THEIR choices and THEIR arrogance and failures.

Edit: Pound has just broken the 90p mark again and sliding still. So it begins.

Tabnabs

They are leading with it, in fairness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288

Theresa May is to make a statement to MPs at 15:30 GMT amid reports Tuesday's vote on her Brexit deal is being delayed.

That will be followed by a statement from Commons leader Andrea Leadsom - and then a statement from the Brexit secretary on Article 50.

10000maniacs

Infini wrote: »

No we wont. The backstop is the EU position as well the only pressure there will be is on the British to cop the hell on. The backstop isn't just because of the border its the fact that its the only workable solution and keeps imports/export checks confined to a limited number of ports/airports. There's over 150+ land border crossings and no infrastructure it's simply not workable without serious costs both politically, locally and financially. That's why the backstop was key from the outset because it both respects NI's remain vote not the DUP's ideological BS and because it takes account of the unique circumstances of NI.

Britain is the one which will come under serious pressure. Negotiations are over its 3 choices no more no less:

1) Accept WA.
2) Abandon Brexit and this whole excersise in failure and fúck ups.
3) Crash out with no deal and watch your country disintegrate.

The one's who are under pressure are the British to decide what they want and make a decision, no more messing around this is the result of THEIR choices and THEIR arrogance and failures.

Yes they will come under pressure, but there is enough EU members on Irelands side for them to stand firm.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

Down to £1.26 against the dollar and sliding fast. Team UK in trouble.

Lowest for 18 months plus manufacturing output shrinking. Time for firm and decisive government. If only.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yes they will come under pressure, but there is enough EU members on Irelands side for them to stand firm.

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

tuxy

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

But every country in the EU is ruled from Brussels we have no say

serfboard

cml387 wrote: »

I'd say this was the result of conversations with Dublin and Brussels yesterday.

That'd be my guess as well.

TM: Leo, any chance you could do us a solid on the old backstop?
Leo: Sorry Tess, no can do.
TM: Bugger! Better cancel that vote.

McGiver

cml387 wrote: »

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

10000maniacs

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

If I was the Spanish, Netherlands or Belgian PM's, I would at least be putting a discussion on the table.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

She CAN cancel Brexit but she would HAVE to go back to the people with another vote. It's the only way forward for her at this point as parliament wont back the WA and the consequences of a No Deal will ultimately break the UK it's simply a nogo. Simple truth is unless they agree to the WA then Brexit simply wont be able to happen without catastrophic costs to them. It hurts us but unlike them we have at least been preparing for a No Deal they haven't you only have to look at Fasal's twitter a few weeks back and how he was suprised how our side were preparing so much for this while nothing of equivelence exists in the UK.

serfboard

McGiver wrote: »

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

Yep - as I said before, Parliament is stuck. No majorities for Deal, No Deal, Remain.

Despite what the ERG and Labour say, there is no "better deal" available.

The only solutions are a General Election (unlikely IMO) or a Second Referendum.

That's it.

P_1

UK politics really is turning into the final part of the BBC House of Cards series isn't it?

All we're missing is a high profile Tory to cross the house at this stage

Water John

Some posters here have very wobbly knees. This is holding though time. If UK had trust from the EU and countries within it, TM might get a bit more help, but that isn't there owing to their past behaviour.
Did any country listen to the UK Govn't when they started spinning against us? Did ant country listen when UK tried to go over Barnier's head. The answer to both is, no.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

She CAN cancel Brexit but she would HAVE to go back to the people with another vote. It's the only way forward for her at this point as parliament wont back the WA and the consequences of a No Deal will ultimately break the UK it's simply a nogo. Simple truth is unless they agree to the WA then Brexit simply wont be able to happen without catastrophic costs to them. It hurts us but unlike them we have at least been preparing for a No Deal they haven't you only have to look at Fasal's twitter a few weeks back and how he was suprised how our side were preparing so much for this while nothing of equivelence exists in the UK.

Apparently (and this could be spin), Ireland has been making al lot of preparations on private for a hard Brexit. The reason the preparations aren't public is because the government don't want to give ammunition to British politicians - Brexiteers in particular.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

10000maniacs wrote: »

If I was the Spanish, Netherlands or Belgian PM's, I would at least be putting a discussion on the table.

They all signed off on the agreement already a week or so ago knowing it most likely wouldn't pass in the UK.

EU member states signed off on agreement. EU say this is the agreement and no renegotiations.

This is only an issue now for the UK Government.

LuckyLloyd

I'm not worried. It was never in the EU's interest to do us on the backstop. That hasn't changed.

The ECJ ruling is a significant event, and could be driving her decision to pull the vote as much as anything.

Professor Moriarty

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I'm not worried. It was never in the EU's interest to do us on the backstop. That hasn't changed.

The ECJ ruling is a significant event, and could be driving her decision to pull the vote as much as anything.

I think you're right. Even though she knew it would probably pass anyway, confirmation gives her a little breathing space.

bilston

serfboard wrote: »

Yep - as I said before, Parliament is stuck. No majorities for Deal, No Deal, Remain.

Despite what the ERG and Labour say, there is no "better deal" available.

The only solutions are a General Election (unlikely IMO) or a Second Referendum.

That's it.

A second referendum could be very dangerous. While it may become the only option, I think other alternatives need to be looked at first...and I say that as a Remainer. A narrow Remain victory could leave some very angry people out there who might mobilise behind the likes of Yaxley Lennon.

First try and get a Parliament in place whereby a majority for one outcome or the other exists. To do that you need a General Election. If that doesn't work then go back to the people.

10000maniacs

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

They all signed off on the agreement already a week or so ago knowing it most likely wouldn't pass in the UK.

EU member states signed off on agreement. EU say this is the agreement and no renegotiations.

This is only an issue now for the UK Government.

They signed off on an agreement but that agreement is now dead in the water. I don't think they would have bothered if they assumed it would fail all along.

Call me Al

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

Umder pressure from whom? The UK media? The ERG? Because really the only people I see trying to twist his arm aren't involved in voting in the ROI..
All politics is local and he's just as aware of the next election here at home as TM and most of the Conservative party are of tryjng to come away intact from this wholly shambolic mess that's all of their own making.

Eta we will now see a 2nd referendum with the choice split between this WA and revocation of the Art 50 withdrawal.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apparently (and this could be spin), Ireland has been making al lot of preparations on private for a hard Brexit. The reason the preparations aren't public is because the government don't want to give ammunition to British politicians - Brexiteers in particular.

This isn't news we've been planning for 2 years

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This isn't news we've been planning for 2 years

Of course, that's obvious. It is the extent of the planning that is being discussed.

McGiver

bilston wrote: »

A second referendum could be very dangerous. While it may become the only option, I think other alternatives need to be looked at first...and I say that as a Remainer. A narrow Remain victory could leave some very angry people out there who might mobilise behind the likes of Yaxley Lennon.

Almost every scenario will end up with an angry lot who have been cheated, deluded or otherwise living in the Brexit fantasy. There is no way back. The genie is out of the bottle since Cameron decided on the ref. What's the point of appeasing them? Appeasement doesn't work. Education and cultured political discourse does.

tuxy

Leo made a statement saying there will be no change on the agreement. The phone call with May was just to update him on how things are going.
If the backstop part of the agreement was to be revisited all parts of the agreement would be open to discussion.

seamus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apparently (and this could be spin), Ireland has been making al lot of preparations on private for a hard Brexit. The reason the preparations aren't public is because the government don't want to give ammunition to British politicians - Brexiteers in particular.

It's not been that private at all tbh. Coveney and Varadkar have been talking for months about working towards a good deal while also preparing for Brexit. I expect plenty of the finer details have been kept low-key, especially anything being put in place along the border regions.

Over the weekend I was speaking to two Irish fund-type people who work in London, who've said that they've been out the door busy with companies shoring up their financial situation; renewing financing deals, transferring assets etc now. Nobody wants to be caught short in March, they're placing their bets now and just seeing what happens.
Apparently Jan-March is usually their busy time (before the UK year end I suppose), but they have comparatively very little work lined up for the new year 2019.

This is all the stuff happening in the background that the media isn't really talking about.

bilston wrote: »

First try and get a Parliament in place whereby a majority for one outcome or the other exists. To do that you need a General Election. If that doesn't work then go back to the people.

Seems like the most likely outcome tbh. A referendum has too much room for conflict. One way or another, one "side" gets what they want, the other gets ignored.
A general election, while it would by default be a new Brexit referendum, at least nobody on either side would feel "unrepresented" by the outcome.